000
FXUS61 KBUF 272238
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
638 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cool temperatures with showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue this evening. The upper level
disturbances responsible for the cool and unsettled weather will
move east Wednesday with high pressure bringing dry weather. Another
storm system will track into the Great Lakes on Thursday with a warm
front bringing more showers and thunderstorms along with a return to
uncomfortable humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough axis will move into eastern New York state
early this evening. The steadiest showers and thunderstorms are
already extend from the Saint Lawrence Valley to Central New
York, and this activity will continue to move east and
diminishingwith into the evening hours with the loss of
daytime heating. However, there are still a few storms behind
the trough axis, so scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out into this evening. The low
freezing levels and steep mid- level lapse rates will continue
to allow for small hail growth to around pea size in the
stronger storms that develop.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s
while showers taper off. It is possible for a few showers to
develop on the land breeze over the lakes overnight given the
much water lake waters than land temperatures expected tonight.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will nose
into the region, building in a warmer and drier airmass. A few
diurnal, scattered showers will be limited closer to the upper-level
low over the North Country. Otherwise, diurnal cumulus clouds will
form over western NY. 850 mb temperatures will start to recover into
the low teens, bringing daytime highs back into the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday night high pressure slides off the Carolina coast with a
southerly flow developing across our region. Rain from next
approaching system will reach parts of western and northern New York
late Wednesday Night. Rain continues to overspread the region on
Thursday as a warm front lifts northward across the region. Enough
instability will develop such that embedded thunderstorms Thursday
will continue into Thursday Night.

The weakening surface low will leave a weak frontal boundary across
the region on Friday with a few more showers and thunderstorms on
tap.

Temperature-wise, finally back to normal readings for the end of
June/beginning of July. Highs Friday reaching the upper 70s to near
80 and on Friday into the low 80s. Low Wednesday night in the mid
50s to around 60. As the air becomes more humid, Thursday Night and
Friday night temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday will start of warm and humid with a warm frontal boundary
moving north or already north WNY.  This will leave the region in
the warm sector of a low moving NE across Huron during the day.  A
cold front associated with this low will move in sometime on
Saturday and spark additional thunderstorms.  Frontal timing will
determine the threat for stronger storms, with a better chance
inland/toward CNY if current model trends hold.

Saturday night and Sunday...this time period should mark the end of
an active pattern with high pressure slowly moving in with drying in
at least the mid levels.  The main threat for additional showers
will be on Sunday afternoon along lake breeze convergent regions.

Sunday night and Monday...this period should be dry with weak high
pressure moving toward the region from the upper midwest. Dry
weather area-wide isn`t a guarantee this far out, but if the timing
of the current pattern holds, the natural progression should be
subsidence behind the Sunday system, with the exception of isolated
summer convection on lake breeze convergent regions by Monday
afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday...High pressure generally over head should
negate any threat for convection.  The 12Z GFS is more optimistic
precipitation from the WV/VA Appalachians into PA while the EC is
dry with a slightly stronger ridge over Ontario extending S into NY.
Will lean on the dry side for now as the GFS has had some model
variability further upstream over the midwest when compared to a
more consistent pattern noted in successive EC runs.

Daily temperatures won`t stray too far off normals for this time of
year, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows mostly in the
60s, with a slight cooling trend into early next week.  Humidity
levels will vary, with some nights possibly warranting A/C while in
the warm sector, but at this time don`t see any extreme sultry days
or nights for weekend/early next week.  The warmest and most humid
period will be early/during Saturday while in the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, with
localized MVFR/IFR vsbys and cigs possible in scattered showers
and thunderstorms. A few stronger thunderstorms may produce
small, pea sized hail through early this evening. Expect VFR
conditions from late evening on, with these lasting well into
the day on Wednesday as high pressure builds toward the region.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy westerly winds up to 25 knots will prevail on Lake Erie
this evening producing small craft conditions.

A few showers and thunderstorms will continue moving across Lake
Ontario early this evening. Stronger storms may produce pea
sized hail and waterspouts.

Lighter winds will promote sub-advisory wave action on the lakes
from tonight and Wednesday. Winds and waves will again increase
Thursday ahead of the next frontal system pushing toward the eastern
Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL/CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH