Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 301613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1213 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WITH WARM AND GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK...HOWEVER EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REINVIGORATED SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 500- 100 J/KG...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG THE STALLED OUT
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT BULK OF ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FOCUS ON THIS AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK WHILE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SPORADIC
AND LIGHTER IN NATURE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
FILLS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND DIURNAL HEATING DISSIPATES
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE 60S AND POTENTIAL
CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS...HAVE OPTED TO THROW IN SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WITH THIS LATEST
UPDATE.

THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN
SPITE OF THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
ALONG WITH A BUILDING 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE
WILL WORK TOGETHER WITH +1SD TO +2SD 850MB TEMPERATURES TO BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE L/M60S CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT IN THE MID 80S...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL ONLY SLIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND UPPER 50 IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PROMOTE PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500MB ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A CONTINUATION OF LARGELY DRY
WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR OUR
REGION. GFS MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW SOME THIN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
TIER. A 700MB CAP SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A LACK OF A SYNOPTIC TRIGGER. OTHERWISE HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING
IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP DEVELOP
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN
FINGER LAKES AS A TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND WRN FINGER LAKES WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
IN HEAVIER -SHRA/-TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH FILLS
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WITH CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST...
LOOK FOR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. SW FLOW WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT MONDAY AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15KTS WITH WAVES 2FT OR LESS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REGAIN CONTROL WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE LAKES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD


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