Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 231959
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
ALLOW COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY...THEN A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OVER
NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING
TREND OVERNIGHT AND THE FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
WESTERN NY.

WITH A COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY WIND ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A
SUNNIER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ON ITS WAY TO THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL FOR THE MOST PART BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ON FRIDAY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A THIN NEARLY SATURATED LAYER NEAR 5KFT. FRIDAY
NIGHT EXPECT SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG TO REDEVELOP WITH HIGH CLOUDS
WORKING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A LEADING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

ON SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL THICKENS AND LOWER THE HIGH
CLOUD DECK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARRIVING ACROSS WNY BY THE
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE AND EXTEND INTO
CNY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE
BUT THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS TO DIP BELOW AVERAGE. THE COOLEST TEMPS WHICH WILL DIP
INTO THE 40S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE EAST COAST A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BOOST DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
SO MUCH MORE MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL THEN BE FOUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WILL BE
ENDING EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER 20Z TO 22Z.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS IN UPSLOPE FLOW AFFECTING KJHW WITH
MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z. VFR FOR ALL ON THU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR IFR/MVFR
IN PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH
MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST
WAVES TO NEAR 2 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL SETTLE BACK TO MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH






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