Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 231809
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE
EARLY FALL WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THERE ARE CLOUDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO MAINE. LINGERING
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED
INSTABILITY CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUND NICELY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. IT WILL BE A BIT
COOLER IN THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS MAINE OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WILL SET UP A SUBTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THIS
SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IT DID LAST
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER THE
SUBTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY HELP SUPPRESS THIS TO SOME DEGREE. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS HAS BEEN PROMISED FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT WILL BE DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD DURING THIS PERIOD AS IMPRESSIVE RIDGING WILL TAKE A
DOMINANT STANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. INITIALLY...
BROAD BASED RIDGING WITHIN A SPLIT FLOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...BUT AS WE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WITHIN  A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC JET WILL FEED INTO A
DEEPENING CUT OFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL AMPLIFY AN ALREADY NOTE WORTHY DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
STATES....LEADING TO +3 STD HGT DEPARTURES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE RETURN INTERVAL FOR SUCH A
COMMANDING RIDGE AT THIS OF YEAR ARE LESS FREQUENT THAN ONCE IN A 30
YEAR SPAN.

THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR OUR REGION WITH A GRADUAL DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND THAT WILL
SEND OUR TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS SUN
FILLED SKIES WILL SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S (60S ABV 1800`).

THE FINE WEATHER WILL NOT COME WITHOUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH.
A WEAKNESS IN THE HGT FIELD (IE. DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE)
WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD SOME
THICK CIRRUS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN WELL
TO OUR SOUTH.

THE NEBULOUS...DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO
TEMPORARILY STALL ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THOUGH...LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
AREA AND EFFECTIVELY SHUNT/DEFLECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THINNING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. H85 TEMPS
IN THE VCNTY OF 10C WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
70S.

BY FRIDAY...THE SPLIT FLOW FEATURING THE BROAD BASED RIDGE WILL
PHASE INTO ONE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS +590DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE AFOREMENTIONED `FLY IN
THE OINTMENT` SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM
OUR REGION WHILE STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THE RESULT WILL BE A SALUBRIOUS EARLY FALL DAY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS OF 12C BOOSTING OUR MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THESE VALUES WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES F ABV NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...THEN A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLES TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WHILE
HELPING TO PUSH A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS FROM QUEBEC
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE THIS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AT THAT TIME...WILL NOT CARRY ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ALL IN ALL...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...OUTSIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY (NEAR ART)...AND SCT-BKN INSTABILITY CUMULUS NEAR JHW. IN
EACH CASE...CIGS SHOULD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR
OUT TOWARD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THIS
SHOULD IMPACT JHW. ELSEWHERE THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS. THEN EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING A NEUTRAL TO WEAK
ENSO EVENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. A SUITE OF
THEIR DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK EL NINO
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WINTER. THIS COULD VERY WELL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WEATHER
FOR OUR REGION.

WHILE THE PHASE OF THE ENSO EVENT (EL NINO VERSUS LA NINA) IS
IMPORTANT TO WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS FOUND A MODERATE TO STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE ENSO EVENT AND THE TREND IN TEMPERATURES. SOME
OF THE `WARMEST` WINTER MONTHS (AS DEFINED BY AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE) HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EL
NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS...WHILE THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FOR HARSH
WINTERS.

SINCE 1950...18 OF THE TOP 20 `COLDEST` WINTERS ACROSS OUR REGION
HAVE TAKEN PLACE DURING A WEAK TO NEUTRAL ENSO EVENT. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE TELECONNECTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED JET STREAM
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS FREQUENT
INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR AND CAN BE REINFORCED BY A WINTER THAT
FEATURES RIDGING ACROSS GREENLAND. SUPPORTING THIS ARGUMENT IS
ANOTHER INTERESTING SET OF STATISTICS. SINCE 1950...WE HAVE HAD
THREE WINTERS WHERE ALL FIVE WINTER MONTHS (NOV-MARCH) HAVE AVERAGED
BELOW NORMAL...AND FIVE WINTERS WHERE FOUR OF THE FIVE MONTHS WERE
BELOW NORMAL...ALL OF WHICH OCCURRED DURING WEAK ENSO EVENTS.

WHILE THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY ANY MEANS FOR A
SECOND STRAIGHT HARSH WINTER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE PATTERN DOES
FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. ONE HAS TO BE VERY CAREFUL IN USING JUST ONE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN IN MAKING LONG RANGE FORECASTING THOUGH. FOR EXAMPLE...A
PERSISTENT ICELANDIC LOW COULD HELP TO FLATTEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THEREBY NEGATE A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE
PACIFIC.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...RSH






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