Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING DIURNAL CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LEAVE CLEAR SKIES REGION-WIDE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL
HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



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