000
FXUS61 KBUF 240730
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC.
WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS
STILL IN PLACE.

AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO
THE AIR.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A
SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID
30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST INCREASES. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.

HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP