Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 180322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1122 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS THE SRN
TIER WHERE SOME VALLEY FOG AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF STRATUS COULD
PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL
DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL
ALSO ADD WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO
HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS... BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.