Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 300632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
232 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF SUMMER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AND WILL MOISTEN
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SPRINKLES AS
ELEVATED SHOWERS FALL INTO DRIER AIR BELOW. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS...AND
ALSO HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. EXPECT LOW TO
MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL END EARLY AS THE WEAK
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY CENTER MOVES EAST AND DAMPENS
OUT. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODEST INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING AROUND 1000J/KG OF SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK ASCENT...ALONG WITH INLAND
ADVANCING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ERIE AND
WYOMING COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA LESSER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD ALLOW DRY
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE
THRUWAY FROM THE DEPARTING MORNING WAVE AND THEN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN IN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 14C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WHERE WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER/INTERIOR FINGER LAKES AT THE
START OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING BEHIND
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT LOWS TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

AFTER THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ALONG WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. TOGETHER...THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WELL AS MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT IN
THE MID 80S...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS /AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED LARGELY
DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER-LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION...
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COULD SAG INTO OUR
REGION AT SOME POINT LATER ON IN THE WEEK...ANY SUCH FEATURE WOULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...AND WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE
STARVED FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. GIVEN BOTH THIS AND CONTINUED
VARIANCES SEEN AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING /OR EVEN THE PRESENCE OF/ THIS FEATURE...HAVE KEPT POPS
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE AND BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT FROM NRN OH TO SW NY ALONG A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXPECT OCCASIONAL -SHRA
ACROSS WRN NY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN TIER. CONDITIONS HERE WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR IN HEAVIER -SHRA WHILE TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR.

THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN AND CTRL NY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND WRN FINGER LAKES
AND A FEW ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR IN HEAVIER -SHRA/-TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
NATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES 2
FEET OR LESS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.