Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BEHIND THIS A VORT MAX SPARKS SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF FOG WILL LINGER NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO PREFER THE
HRRR FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS
WHICH UPSLOPE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH IS BEST SUITED TO CAPTURE THESE MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS SHOULD BE 06Z TO 12Z. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES PROFILES COOL TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
FORECAST SATURATED LAYER ONLY COOLS TO ABOUT -8C...BUT WITH THE VORT MAX
CROSSING SUSPECT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITY. IF
NOT...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...EXPECT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR GOOD LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY NOON OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEY A
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD
LINGER AT ART THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S MOVE ACROSS THE COLD LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AND RESULT IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/VFR.

AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERING CIGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







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