Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 061359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
859 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
ARCTIC AIR SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST...LOOKS ON TRACK.  A FEW SHALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OSWEGO/NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...BUT THEY
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SUNSHINE WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO AROUND 20 BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NOMINALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO TO AROUND 20MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
THE BULK OF THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY ELSEWHERE WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER. THE CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL HELP BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
EARLY MARCH NORMALS WHILE NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE POLAR JET WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CENTERING ON SATURDAY EVENING TAPERING TO
JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A THIN MOISTURE PROFILE
LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND 10KFT THICK AND THE PROGRESSIVE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM WILL LIMIT SNOW TO ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH THAT HIGHER TOTAL
FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOOSTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TWO MORE QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH DRIER
AND MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIMIT EACH PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO A HALF INCH OR LESS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUSH TOWARD 30 DEGREES WHICH IS STILL MORE THAN 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY SLIP
BACK TO AROUND 20 WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTH
COUNTY WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION HERE LIKELY SLIPPING INTO THE
TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG-AWAITED ALBEIT BRIEF WARM-UP THAT WE HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON LATELY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MORE PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS ALLOWING HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION TO SPREAD EAST.
THE MAJORITY OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGHS
TUESDAY WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS THE EXCEPTION SHOWING A PEAK ON TUESDAY
THEN A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH COMPACT
SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING A MUCH EARLIER
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING AND
A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HAVE RAN
WITH A BLEND OF CONTINUITY...00Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THIS BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN AS 00Z EC SHOWS A FLAT 500MB TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES WITH ACCOMPANYING DRY AIRMASS. GENERALLY EXPECT AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES AS LONG AS THE
00Z GFS DOES NOT VERIFY.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING LITTLE OR NO FLOOD RISK WITH NO
ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE
SNOWPACK TO CONSOLIDATE AND RIPEN. WHILE THE DEPTH OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND WILL DROP...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WATER WILL BE RELEASED AS
THE INITIAL MELTWATER IS RE-ABSORBED BY THE REMAINING SNOW. THE
LATEST FORECAST DOES NOT SUPPORT A LONG ENOUGH THAW PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF AN ICE BREAKUP ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. EXPECT THE ICE MAY VERY
WELL STAY LARGELY IN PLACE EVEN WITH THE WARMER DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS ALONG/SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AFTER 09Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR...THEN BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REMAINING UNFROZEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE THIS MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TO 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER ANY WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CANADIAN WATERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LAKES SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







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