Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 262023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






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