Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 011728
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z
4KM NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN
MCV 24 HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN
FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD
IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA


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