Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200900
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TODAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN MICHIGAN. THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW ARE HELPING TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL PREVENT ANY THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MICHIGAN
U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE AS PLENTY
OF DRY AIR IS PRESENT 5-15KFT PER 00Z KBUF SOUNDING. WHILE THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS
MORNINGS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL
SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE
MID 50S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING
AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJHW LATER
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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