Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 292000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A VERY WARM START TO THE
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARMTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT ARE
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A CLEAR START TO
THE EVENING BEFORE CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY HOWEVER AND INCREASINGLY WARM WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 50S...WITH LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH 850MB TEMPS FLIRTING WITH
+18C...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS BEING FOUND IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN. READINGS WILL
RUN JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ON THE HILLTOPS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...THE
VANGUARD OF MORE ACTIVITY TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ARRIVE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL FOLLOW HE
INFLUX OF A HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO 70
DEGREES AND NIGHTTIME TO EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. MODELS ARE DIFFERING AS TO THE REGIONS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...NAM12 SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF HEAVIEST RAIN OVER FAR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE THEN ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHEREAS GFS HAS TWO REGIONS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN. WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE
NAM12 BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNPOURS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 2
INCHES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AS ITS
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUND TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
INTERIOR HIGHLANDS. NAM12 SHOWS A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
WITH CAPE NEARING 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICIES CROSSING INTO
NEGATIVE TERRITORY.

MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NOTABLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON TIMING. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...A
WEAK BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BRINGS A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUE CHANCE OF
PRECIP AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTS WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. ANY
PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z
SUNDAY HOWEVER...WHEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
BECOMING MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ON THE LAKES AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND
A WEAKENING LOW TRACKS FROM THE SOO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WHILE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE WAVE ACTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE
LAKES...THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH 4FT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAVE TO BUILD INTO THE 2-4FT RANGE ON
THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND JUST A
LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES FOR THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






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