Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 290558
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
158 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS MARRING WHAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOWS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH RADIATIONAL FOG LIKELY TO FORM IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS LATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH
THE COOLER LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FARTHER INLAND REACHING THE
BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AIRPORTS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THESE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S...WHILE THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY ...THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AND SAINT
LAWRENCE AND BLACK RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT 90F OR
BETTER. DEWPOINTS TOMORROW WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID
60S...SUPPORTING HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO CHANGES MADE THIS EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL TRACK TOWARD HUDSON BAY. AN ELONGATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
RATHER LACK LUSTER... WITH ONLY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO ORGANIZED
RAIN SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND SHOWERY ALONG THE FRONT... AS INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK WITH THE EARLY MORNING TIMING. CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AS DRIER AIR AND
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE BASED RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REPRESENT THE MORE MODERATE
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES WITH COOLER READINGS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS AMBIGUOUS AT BEST AND AT ANY RATE WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING AVAILABLE MOISTURE LIMITED...AM NOT CONFIDENT
WE WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT ANY RATE...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...THERE SHOULD BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD.

THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY ATTEMPT TO DIG THE HUDSON BAY LOW SOUTH
ACROSS ONTARIO...HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE RUNS BEFORE BUYING INTO IT. THUS FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY...MAINTAINING LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH THE BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LIKEWISE...LOWS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE
WITH LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE LAKES COOLING TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

LOOK AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK... MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD AN OVERALL
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US AND A LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES IT WILL SPELL TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ASIDE FROM PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK
STATE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

AFTER THAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN CIG/VSBY...WITH CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES AND RIVERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY BUT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
LIGHT AWAY FROM STORMS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH WINDS AND
WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS


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