Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 272049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS OVER THE AREA SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF CLE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT FRESH SNOW COVER LOWS WILL BE
BELOW GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME WIND CHILLS WILL JUST GET CLOSE TO -10F
FOR AN ADVISORY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR BE STEADY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WORKS TOWARD THE
AREA. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNEAKING INTO NW OH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN DECREASE
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON THURSDAY IS TOUGH. WITH THE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WE WILL GET INTO THE WARM ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING A MIX THAT
SHOULD HELP FROM BEING TOO BAD BUT IF WE GET FREEZING RAIN AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT MOST MODELS ARE
REALLY DRY SO THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS OF SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT
HIGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY EXCEPT THE SNOW BELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TEXAS LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.  STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BUT GFS MOVES THE LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT STILL DOUBTS AS THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.   LOW WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.

THE WEEKEND SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PLUNGE THE 850MB TEMPS TO -20C (OR COLDER).
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.  AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.  WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND COULD APPROACH 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ICE FLOE MOVEMENT MAKING ICE RELATED CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE
HAZARDOUS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB





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