Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 031942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME EARLY SHORT TERM CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM TO
NORTH SPREADS MORE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR TOL AND FDY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY BUT THE NCAR 3KM ENSEMBLE SPREADS SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DECK OF MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND
THE KMFD AREA DUE TO SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND THEN SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE ALSO STILL PRESENT IN THE KYNG/KERI LEFT OVER FROM SOME FOG AND
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FOR A BIT
LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE SOONER OVER
LATER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND
CEILINGS CLOSER TO MVFR WILL RETURN WITH THE RAIN CHANCES.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC



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