Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 262246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
646 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A front will remain stalled near Lake Erie into Tuesday as waves of
low pressure ride northeast along the front eventually pulling the
front off to the southeast on Tuesday. High pressure will build
southeast into the area Tuesday night then lift northeast by
Thursday to allow a low to move up the Ohio valley to New Jersey by


Only made minor changes to the pops and weather to cover
current trends.

First wave of showers have rotated across the area with a break
expected for at least a couple hours in its wake. The next wave
of energy moving into northern Ohio will likely bring a bit more
thunder. Will stick with chance wording at this point in time
since the coverage should not be more than scattered.

Previous Discussion...
Energy from the surface and upper low lifting ne across MI
tonight will induce bands of shra and tsra that will move ne
across the cwa. Most of the convection will shift into the east
by the latter part of the night as a weak cold front/trough gets
pulled east across the cwa. Some of the storms could be strong
but very few if any severe storms are expected. Total rainfall
from now until 8 am should generally range from around a quarter
of an inch to half an inch with locally higher amounts where
repeat tsra occur.

Lows will be seasonally warm, mostly in the low to mid 50s.


There will only be a brief break in the rain threat the first half
of the day Monday as the next system moving toward the area will
provide for an increasing threat for shra/tsra in the
afternoon...especially in the west half of the area.

With the track of the surface and upper low across the northern part
of the area, would think measurable rainfall will occur everywhere,
so will increase pops more Mon night into Tue along with QPF.

Temps will stay well above normal into Tue until cooler and drier
air push in for Tue night thru Wed night.


The area will be located between high pressure over Quebec on
Thursday with low pressure approaching from the Plains. Another day
of easterly flow off Lake Erie could keep the Toledo area several
degrees cooler than the rest of northern Ohio. Nudged temperatures
down a few degrees downwind of the lake but hard to include much
detail as it will be highly dependent on storm track.

Showers will develop on Thursday night and continue through Friday
as the next in a series of low pressure systems tracks out of the
Plains across the southern Great Lakes. Kept highs in the 50s on
Friday but entirely possible to reach the 60s if the more northern
track of the low shown by the ECMWF/Canadian pans out. This system
pulls away to the east on Saturday but models in poor agreement with
regard to how much moisture/cloud cover lags behind. Showers should
taper off Saturday given the shallow moisture depth with quiet
weather on Sunday as weak high pressure arrives between systems.


.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
A frontal boundary extending from FDY-CLE at 18Z will lift
north through TOL by 20Z this afternoon. A wind shift to the
south will accompany the front and bring an end to the IFR
ceilings. Several bands of showers both overhead and upstream
will move east across the area through the evening. Ceilings
will trend towards MVFR this afternoon with brief jumps up to
VFR. Coverage of thunderstorms expected to increase after 21Z as
upper low over Illinois draws closer. As the rain departs, low
level wrap around moisture will increase from the west with most
sites seeing IFR ceilings fill in overnight. Visibilities are
harder to determine and will range from 1-5 miles. Conditions
will start to improve by 15Z with ceilings lifting to MVFR.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR much of the time late Monday into
Tue then again by Thu.


Warm front will continue to move north of Lake Erie this evening
with weak low pressure slowly moving northeast across the Central
Great Lakes. Southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots possible overnight
shifting to southwest on Monday as the low continues northeast into
Canada. Another area of low pressure will move out of the Plains and
cross the Ohio Valley on Monday night. Northerly winds will develop
and pull a cold front back south across Lake Erie. Winds only
expected to be 10-15 knots so may be able to avoid a Small Craft
Advisory despite onshore flow but will need to monitor trends over
the next 36 hours. Strong high pressure will then build east across
Ontario and Quebec from Tuesday night through Thursday with
east/northeast winds on the lake. Easterly winds may increase to 15
to 20 knots for a period of time on Thursday and will need to keep
an eye out for Small Craft conditions on the western basin. Another
area of low pressure will approach from the Plains towards Friday
but models in poor agreement on wind speeds and track at this time.




NEAR TERM...Adams/Mullen
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