Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281414

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1014 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Low pressure over Indiana will drift to the Ohio Valley today.
The low will meander across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
through Saturday producing on and off showers for the area.


Swath of rain continues to rotate north across northwest and north
central Ohio. The majority is now east of the I-75 corridor but
most of our models indicate that showers will redevelop in this
area this afternoon which seems reasonable given the new activity
developing across Indiana. The progress eastward will be limited
as the upper low dives south but not east. The main area of rain
will likely not make it past the I-77 corridor but showers may
develop this afternoon as the instability increases.

SPC has expanded the marginal risk of severe thunderstorms into
northwest Ohio, primarily for the risk of hail. Will have to
watch as the new showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon.
As long as we stay in the downwind part of the "plume" the
showers will tend to become more stratiform. Will be more
concerned if we see singular cell development or unobstructed
inflow into cells. Also concerned about rain amounts. Will have to
watch amounts if training were to occur for any length of time.
PWs not progged to get too high but rain processes will be

For the mid morning forecast update...made minor adjustments on
PoP, weather and QPF this afternoon into tonight based on current
trends and the latest model info. Kept thunder chances with the
"likely" or higher PoPs although really cannot rule it out

Original "today" discussion...
Currently low pressure system centered over Northern Lake
Michigan. All models drop the low south into the Ohio Valley by
this evening. Current pressure falls now into Central Illinois
would substantiate this. Showers stretching from NW Michigan into
Northern Illinois will gradually expand as the low drops to the
south. Although none of the models seem to have a great placement
of the showers all 3 move the showers into western half of area
this morning and into the east by late afternoon. Seems reasonable
with an east-northeast flow setting up this afternoon...precip
will have a harder time spreading east. Bumped up temps for today
a few degrees in the east since precip will not reach until later
in the day.


The low moves into the Ohio Valley by this evening...but then the
surface and upper level low drift across the Ohio Valley/Lower lakes
into Saturday.   This will produce occasional showers and isolated
thunderstorms...but the models still not in good agreement on
precise track and movement of the low.  Models continue with deeper
moisture and stronger forcing with the left exit region of the upper
level jet, deformation zone, and vorticity max will help develop
large bands of rain that could extend into southern PA.  The best
chances for rain will be in the east but still have some doubts as
to amounts as models tend to over forecast amounts with NE downslope
flow which we will have through the period.   That said  most areas
should see an inch of rain through Saturday with the potential for
more in the extreme east.


Upper level low pressure will still be impacting portions of the
area with some scattered showers. Better chances by Sunday should be
across the north. Models continue to move the low eastward into
Sunday night with only some lingering lake showers anticipated. Will
keep a slight chance mention in the grids on Monday across the east
since Lake Erie is so warm and the upper level troughiness. Surface
high pressure should begin to build into the region Monday night
into Tuesday with increasing heights. This should mean warmer
temperatures for the middle of next week.

Sunday will be the cool day of the long term with highs mainly in
the 60s. Warmer each day into Tuesday. Highs by Tuesday afternoon
will return to the lower and middle 70s.


.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Low pressure was located over western Indiana with an area of
showers located over NW OH. The low will drift toward the region
through the day. VFR conditions will continue for several more
hours but ceilings will gradually lower from west to east through
the day. Light rain may begin as early as 15z across central
portions of northern OH but will likely begin as VFR. As the
rains persists ceilings will lower to MVFR. A thunderstorm or two
will be possible but chances are way too low to mention in the
TAF`s. Rain should not reach the OH/PA border until around sunset
at the earliest.

Winds will shift from southerly this morning to the east through
the day. Eastern areas will see a better downsloping wind develop
so expect some gusty winds at KERI and KYNG.

OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR through Sunday.


Low pressure will move from the Western Great Lakes to the central
Ohio River Valley by Thursday. So the southerly flow this morning
will quickly shift to the east and increase. The surface pressure
gradient should tighten enough for Thursday into Friday to allow
winds to increase to at least 15 to 25 knots. So with that said a
small craft advisory is expected to be issued for Thursday, then
continue into at least Friday night. Winds and waves decrease by
Saturday afternoon.

There will be scattered to numerous showers, maybe a few
thunderstorms, on the lake through the remainder of the week.




LONG TERM...Mullen
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