Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 271320
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
920 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
High pressure off the east coast will move little through the
weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains will
begin to move northeast on Saturday. This low will cross the
northern lakes early Sunday. A warm front from the low will lift
across the local area on Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With all things being equal from yesterday, but with a warmer
start to the day, can`t see why temperatures won`t reach a degree
or two warmer this afternoon. Have bumped up temperatures across
the board a few degrees. Could see some 88/89F pop up in isolated
spots in the NW. Humidity will be rising today which will add to
the overall heat index. Looking at morning soundings there appears
to be a wet-bias in the models, as we`ve seen the last few
days, so have scaled back the pops to isolated. Instability will
be most favorable in the southwest counties but with lack of a
trigger feel isolated is sufficient in that area. Should some
convection develop upstream we may have to revisit their chances.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight...a warm front will move northeast into indiana by
00z this evening near a Chicago-Dayton line. At the same time the
NAM brings a weak short wave into Eastern Indiana and Western
Ohio. Given the weak wave and the approaching front...will bring
a low chance pop in for early evening far west. On Saturday am a
bit concerned about the upper ridge shifting east while moisture
increases across the area. The MAV guidance remains wetter than
the MET with high chance to likely pops vs chance or less. At this
time feel that we will see more coverage by then however do not
feel likely pops are prudent at this time with a continued lack of
forcing so will just go with chance pops. Late Sunday into Monday
we should see a cold front drop across the area from the
northwest. Would expect convection to be along or ahead of the
front. Will continue with chance pops but may need to raise in the
future with a better picture of timing...moisture and
instability. highs generally in the lower 80s saturday and Sunday.
Highs closer to the upper 70s to Near 80 Monday post cold front.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level ridge will build north for the first half of the long
term forecast period. This will promote high pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic states, which will in turn allow for warm, moist flow into
the region. Temperatures will be cooler than Memorial Day weekend as
a cold front on Monday morning will knock temperatures down for us,
so expecting upper 70s/lower 80s for long term period. The upper
ridge and surface high should keep the area dry for Tuesday and most
of Wednesday and the only cloud cover to note would be fair weather,
For late Wednesday and beyond, the long term models diverge quite a
bit. The GFS greatly amplifies the ridge over the eastern United
States and generates an upper level cut off high. With the GFS
solution, there would be a couple pieces of energy in the mid levels
that could support convection on Thursday, but it would be scattered
precipitation at best. The ECMWF solution brings an upper level
trough across the northern United States that would erode the upper
level ridge and bring widespread convection to the region for
Thursday. For now, have a chance for showers and thunderstorms and
upper 70s for the end of the long term period and will have to fine
tune as long term model solutions become better organized.
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Conditions will predominantly be VFR for most TAF sites today as
an upper level ridge overhead and high pressure to the southeast
will keep the area warm and relatively stable. Some MVFR
visibilities are still lingering around KCAK this morning and may
get into KYNG as moisture in those areas are at a premium with dew
points in the low/mid 60s, but any present mist/haze will mix out
fairly quickly with the sun now up. With abundant low-level
moisture in place for Friday and temperatures making it up into
the mid 80s or so, a diurnally-driven pop-up shower or
thunderstorm could appear this afternoon/early evening. However,
with no distinct trigger for showers/storms, it will be difficult
to pinpoint if or where any convection may develop, thus left out
any precipitation mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, winds will be
from the south today and generally 10 knots or less and could see
a bit of a lake breeze at KERI this afternoon. This warm, moist
airmass will still be in place overnight and could present another
opportunity for some MVFR mist/haze/fog to develop Saturday
morning for several sites.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms as well
as early morning mist/haze/fog through Monday.
Lake Erie remains quiet as high pressure settles well to our south
and east. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and southerly
through Sunday night with the exception of a lake breeze Friday and
Saturday afternoons. A weak cold front will move across the area
early Monday morning with some rain and a shift to westerly winds
for a day before shifting to the north on Tuesday. Waves will be 2
feet or less and no small craft advisories are expected through
early next week.