Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181317
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
917 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE
COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEST GUESS AT CURRENT POSITIONS OF DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE
OVER LERI. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE DISSIPATING. BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING
BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT THIS MOISTURE SOME.
ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP...AIDED BY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER A LITTLE MORE LATER IN THE DAY.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OVER THE LAKE
SHORE COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FURTHER
INTO TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FRONT COULD HELP PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP
TO REINFORCE CURRENT AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO I DONT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES AS THEY APPEAR TO BE
ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION SUPPRESSING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA DRY AS WELL. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS COLD
FRONT AS WELL AND WILL JUST KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. ANOTHER
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP
SOME CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WE SHOULD SEE SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD SO NOT
EXPECTING DRASTIC DROPS IN TEMPERATURES. AS HIGH PUSHES
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY...WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY SHIFTING TEMPERATURES IN THE COOLER DIRECTION
AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
850MB COLD POOL WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START
THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. BOTH THE EMCWF AND GFS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 2C OVER NW PA THAT MORNING SO EXPECT A GOOD
DEAL OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND. LOWERED
HIGHS ON MONDAY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EAST INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES MORE
IF THIS AIR MASS VERIFIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO WESTERLY...ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS THE SNOW BELT ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND A LOT ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE PRETTY COOL. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A LOT OF CLEARING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOME FROST COULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY GROUND FOG AT YNG/FDY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
THROUGH 13Z. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH SOUTH INTO ERI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOST OTHER SITES WILL JUST
EXPERIENCE SCT VFR CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE VEER AROUND TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT
A FEW SITES AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW PA.
VFR RETURNS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THEY VEER TO EASTERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS
COULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVER THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





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