Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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909
FXUS61 KCLE 230605
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
205 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across Lake Erie this evening.
Low pressure over the western lakes will move northeast into
Canada by Friday, bringing a cold front east across the region.
A broad trough of low pressure will then remain over the area
through the weekend. High pressure at the surface will begin to
move in from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Updated the PoPs for tonight into tomorrow. Showers are
currently south of the CWA and moving northeast. Showers and a
few storms will begin to develop across the area after 3 to 4
am. This initial batch will move northeast through Ohio into
northwest Pennsylvania, largely clearing out of these areas by 8
to 9 am. More persistent storms will likely continue through the
morning hours across northwest Ohio ahead of an approaching cold
front.

A cold front will slowly move through during the late morning
through afternoon hours today. A line of convection is expected
to develop along and ahead of this front. These storms will be
capable of producing very heavy rain, which could lead to some
minor flooding. If there is enough clearing ahead of this line
of storms, parts of eastern Ohio could see a strong to perhaps
severe storm during the afternoon hours. The main threat would
be strong winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A surface cold front will move east with waves of low pressure
expected along the frontal boundary Friday night allowing ridge of
high pressure to build into the local area for Saturday. The ridging
will be dominant through the day Sunday and surface trough of low
pressure will begin to push south across the area Sunday.

Some weak cold air advection will take place Saturday and Sunday
with highs remaining on the mild side in the lower 70s.  Lows during
the night will hover in the middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level troughiness will prevail through Tuesday night
over the eastern United States.  Nearly zonal flow will setup by mid
week with a small shortwave trough advancing east into the eastern
portions of the United States by Wednesday and Thursday.  Due to the
fast moving systems and long period of cyclonic flow expected across
the area aloft, the atmosphere will be in a chaotic state of change
through the forecast period.

Another wave of low pressure will move east across the forecast area
Monday into Tuesday and then shift east of the area Tuesday night.
Through this process, weak cold air advection will take place into
Tuesday.  High pressure with a ridge extending north to the Great
Lakes will advance east Tuesday night into Wednesday allowing a
return back to warm air advection.  Yet another low pressure system
will move quickly east across the central Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday morning.

Limited instability is expected across the area through the period
with cold air advancing in during the early periods and this should
limit thunder threat.  Then, as warm air advection moves in,
destabilization will take place across the area and increase threat
for thunderstorms.

Cold air advection early in the period will keep temperatures quite
cool. Highs by Thursday may wind up being under forecast due to the
potential for stronger warm air advection and if sun has a chance to
break through the cloud cover and the showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Ceilings will deteriorate overnight as MVFR/IFR conditions
across IL/IN arrive in advance of a cold front slowly sinking
southeast towards the region. Regional radars show an area of
showers across central Ohio that may bring scattered showers to
northeast Ohio prior to 12Z. Otherwise showers with a chance of
thunderstorms will begin to fill in across northwest Ohio by 10Z
as much higher dewpoints and deeper moisture arrive from the
southwest. The challenge today will revolve around timing
thunderstorms which could produce heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms
will become more widespread as the front approaches in the
12-15Z window across northwest Ohio and extending east along the
lakeshore. Thunderstorms will track northeast along a slow
moving cold front which means any terminal could experience
several hours of thunderstorm activity and possibly IFR
conditions. Thunderstorms will drift southeast with time but
will likely outpace the front making the wind forecast
challenging for today as well. Rain will depart to the east
towards the end of the TAF cycle with much drier air arriving
behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Chance of brief MVFR in showers Sunday into Monday
with a cold front and trough aloft.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow will persist through Friday in the warm air
advection.  A shift to a west northwest direction will take place
Friday afternoon as a cold front moves east of the area.  Flow
should be light enough to support 2 to 4 foot waves and avoid small
craft advisories.  Increasing winds will take place out of the west
by Saturday evening.  May need small craft advisories in the western
half of the lake Saturday evening and over the entire lake by Sunday
morning in westerly flow. This flow will continue into Monday and
then fluctuate in speed through Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mottice/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Lombardy/Mullen



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