Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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683
FXUS61 KCLE 222006
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
406 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing near the Gulf Coast will deepen as it tracks
across northwest Ohio towards Lake Huron Monday evening, pulling a
strong cold front east across the area. A trough will linger across
the Great Lakes through mid-week pulling a secondary cold front
across the area. A warm front will lift north early Friday
followed by another cold front heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread rain and falling temperatures on the way to start the
week. An upper level trough extending to the Gulf Coast will curl
northeast towards the Great Lakes on Monday in advance of a stronger
trough digging south out of Canada. Cloud cover will be on the
increase late tonight into Monday as deep moisture advects north
towards the region. Surface low pressure will deepen as it tracks
north towards the area, moving across extreme northwest Ohio on
Monday afternoon then rapidly deepening as it reaches Lake Huron
Monday night. Widespread rain will overspread the area on Monday
with strong upper dynamics as the upper level trough becomes
negatively tilted and absorbed into the deepening trough to the
west. Precipitation with this system will range from a half
inch in the east to almost an inch and a half towards Toledo. A
swath of heavier rain will be focused just northwest of our area
where stronger frontal forcing will align with a persistent
area of mid-level deformation.

Lowered high on Monday across the western half of the area where
precipitation will arrive by midday. Temperatures are tricky given
breezy southeast winds ahead of the system, but thickening
cloud cover and increasing showers will have a limiting effect.
Downsloping winds will be something to watch along the Erie PA
lakeshore late afternoon into evening as winds aloft near 925mb
increase to around 50 knots. Hopefully the mixing depth will
limit gusts to 40 mph but a few stronger gusts are possible
prior to the onset of rain which will help to stabilize the
boundary layer.

A dry slot will get pulled north across the area on Monday evening
and have lowered pops and qpf for Monday night. Showers still likely
but breaks in the precip expected. Temperatures will fall as the
associated cold front sweeps east across the area. Lows Monday
night expected to bottom out in the upper 40s west to lower 50s
east.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper trough will slowly work east across the area Tue thru
Wed night. A second cold front should be moving across the cwa
Tue night into Wed to bring fairly widespread shra then added
lake effect will maintain a good chc for shra later on Wed into
Wed night, especially for the NE half. The threat for shra
should taper off west to east Wed night thru Thu morning as
drier air pushes in from the west and the lake effect potential
starts to diminish.

The next question is whether boundary layer temps aloft will get
cold enough to see some snow mix in Wed night. Based on latest model
data, which is a little warmer, don`t see enough potential for some
mixing to occur so will not mention the "S" word.

Tue will be a transitions day for temps so highs will likely still
be close to normal but for Wed highs should be about 10 degrees
below normal, struggling to get above 50. Thinking is that if enough
clouds are around for shra Wed night then lows should not be able to
get much below 40 degrees in those places based on 850 mb temps from
minus 1 to minus 3 C. Thu should be a little warmer than Wed as some
warm advection gets going by late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm advection will increase Thursday night into Friday as the next
storm system approaches. Cold front will move across the region on
Friday but the amount of low level moisture is uncertain. So for now
will only go with chance POP`s Friday into Saturday. There will be a
lull in the rain chances at some point but the upper level trough
will be in place through Sunday. A reinforcing surge of cooler air
may arrive late Sunday with an increase in shower coverage.

Friday will be the warm day of the long term with temperatures very
close to seasonal averages. Cooler Saturday into Sunday with highs
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue until late tonight before lower
clouds arrive from the southwest in advance of approaching low
pressure. Moisture will surge north into the area on Monday
ahead of a low pressure system that will develop over the lower
Mississippi Valley and deepen as it tracks towards northwest
Ohio. Ceilings will abruptly lower to MVFR and eventually IFR as
rain begins on Monday. Widespread rain is expected across the
area but will not reach the eastern sites until after 18Z. MVFR
to IFR visibilities can be expected in rain.

Southerly winds will be breezy today across northwest and north
central Ohio with gusts to 22 knots through 22Z. Downsloping
winds will become gusty at ERI after 06Z and at all of the
eastern terminals on Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...Areas if Non-VFR in rain Monday through Wednesday.
Some snow may occur Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front with a wave moving along the front will push east
across lake Erie Mon and Mon night. This will lead to increasing
south winds to about 15 to 25 knots that will turn west to northwest
with frontal passage Mon night and may increase to 30 knots briefly.
Winds should settle down slightly by late Tue and back to southwest
briefly until a reinforcing cold front crosses the lake to veer
winds more west again for Wed.

Weak high pressure shifting east across the lake will diminish winds
for Wed night into Thu then another low should be moving thru the
lakes to produce an increasing south wind for Fri. However,
differences in model timing and strength of the low leaves a good
amount of uncertainty in the forecast by Fri.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Adams



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