Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290502
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEAR TO PC
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NO
CHANGES WITH THE MID EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING MODELS ALREADY SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE
SOUTH IN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. EXPECTING
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME GUIDANCE IS IN THE LIKELY CAT
BUT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN LACK OF FORCING SINCE THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLOSING IN ON NORTHWEST OHIO SO TOWARD MORNING INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY NORTHWEST. FOR SATURDAY THE FROM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FOLLOWING THE SREF THE BEST LIFT GETS INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z SUNDAY SO POPS INCREASE FROM MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEST FORCING SO WILL HAVE CAT POPS TAPERING FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DROPPING TO BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER QUIET PLEASANT PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH EARLY IN
PERIOD SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS INITIALLY OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
AND THUS DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY AND THEN WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS TURNING SE THEN
SOUTH THRU TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR HERE AND THERE UNTIL 13Z. A THREAT FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SCT TSRA WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS FAR AS TSRA AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE...WILL USE VCTS FOR NOW
THEN WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES MORE DEFINITE THEN MORE EMPHASIS CAN BE
PLACES ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET IN
THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WILL START THE EVENING . WINDS
WILL TURN SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
SAT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
STRONG OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. BASED ON BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
NEAR MARGINAL SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME
FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK/MAYERS


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