Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 220559
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
159 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Low pressure along the mid-Atlantic will merge with another low
tracking up the east coast and continue north to New
England on Saturday. The low drift into Quebec on Sunday with a
ridge building into the Ohio Valley. A clipper system will slide
through the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday night, pulling another
cold front south behind it.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As expected the coverage of the showers diminished after sunset.
Already starting to see a Lake Huron fetch get established and
expect more showers to move into NE OH and NW PA tonight. The
brunt of the showers should be over Lake...Geauga and Ashtabula
Counties overnight. Precip chances will stretch west to near I-71.
West of that line some decrease in cloudiness is possible
overnight especially as get close to Toledo and Findlay. Will
leave frost mentioned. No changes to temps.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect rain showers, particularly extending from downwind of
Lake Huron will continue in northeast Ohio on Saturday morning,
shifting more towards northwest Pennsylvania by early afternoon.
Elsewhere, skies that have cleared out are expected to cu back up as
moisture off of Lake Michigan spreads into western Ohio.
Temperatures will be cool with highs ranging from the lower 50s in
the west to upper 40s in the east.
High pressure will build over the Ohio Valley on Saturday night. Low
level warm advection ramps up on the north side of the high as the
flow backs and expect to see some isentropic ascent clouds develop.
Did raise mins by a degree or two on Saturday night but this is
dependent on clouds filling in. A clipper system will slide east
across Lake Erie on Sunday night, pulling a cold front south behind
it on Monday. Will continue with scattered showers in the east
behind the front.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Marginally enough moisture may band across the north part of the cwa
for a small threat of shra tue and tue night. The next upper trough
will work east across the area wed into fri although there are model
differences starting to develop by friday. Good chances for shra
seem in order by later wed into thu night then become more
questionable for friday. Below normal temps on tuesday should
moderate to be near normal wed thru fri.
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Cooler air continues to spill across the warm waters of Lake Erie
tonight. This has generated lake effect cloud cover for most
locations. The MVFR, maybe patchy IFR, seems to be limited to
where the heavier showers exist.
Drier air will move into NW Ohio first with the low end VFR cloud
cover eroding. There may be a period of clear skies across NW
Ohio before the next clipper storm system spreads vfr cloud cover
around 5000 feet back into the region. These clouds will reach the
eastern areas during the evening. However across the eastern half
of northern OH and NW PA the MVFR/IFR conditions around the lake
effect showers will continue. The bands of showers will work up
the lakeshore into NW PA early in the afternoon then slowly
decrease in coverage through the evening.
NW winds will remain gusty with 15 to 25 knots common. Winds will
gradually shift to a more westerly direction as they decrease
through the evening hours.
OUTLOOK...NE OH/NW PA will have non-VFR ceilings through Sunday
morning and again late Sunday night into Monday.
North to NW winds should maintain sca conditions well into sunday
then some decrease will occur briefly until a reinforcing cold front
crosses the lake and winds pick back up sunday night thru monday.
High pressure moves over the lake by tuesday to calm the winds then
east winds set up for tue night and look to increase to about 10 to
20 knots on wednesday as a low approaches from the west.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ143>149.