Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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817
FXUS61 KCLE 301136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
736 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW EARLY SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS SNUCK IN FROM THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
SO MADE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLY MORNING READINGS IN THE
30S.

ORIGINAL...CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVED IN
FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS JUST TO OUR WEST
HOWEVER IN OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO
SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN
NOT ON KCLE RADAR YET BUT A REGIONAL LOOK SHOWS RAIN ACROSS KY/SRN
IN/SRN IL MOVING NORTHEAST. HRRR TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE
RAIN GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM KFDY-
KMNN AROUND 15-16Z TIME FRAME AND KCLE 19-20Z. KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING SOUTHWEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL TAKE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG AND WEST OF AN ERIE TO STARK COUNTY LINE. FURTHER EAST TO
NWRN PA WILL HAVE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE. HELD TEMPS TO A 55 TO
63 RANGE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW REACHES NEAR THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. GIVEN
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK VERY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...MORE SO FOR TEMPERATURES
THAN PRECIP. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE SREF SOLUTION...ITS
PATH ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. FOR TONIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BE ONGOING SO WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TAPERING FROM THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. SUNDAY...MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS DERIVED POPS MOSTLY IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WHILE THE NAM IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS. NO JOY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING STRONGLY THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
GETS INTO THE AREA WITH CAT POPS. THE NAM...NOT SO MUCH. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST...AND
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MONDAY WILL HANG INTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
SOUTHEAST BUT EXPECT DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS THE SYSTEM EXITS NEW
ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
COME TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO FOR IMPROVED
CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE ONLY DAY WE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IS WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN STRATUS INDEED MOVED INTO EASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 300 TO 600 FEET. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT AND
SCATTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. RAIN ARRIVES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TAKES IT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND INTO WESTERN/NW PA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE LOWER IFR
FOR TOL AS THEY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. OTHERS MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF IFR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THOSE THAT
CAN GET A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS. LIKELY NOT AS GOOD AS VFR...BUT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE IFR.
THUNDER A SMALL POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR
SUNDAY FAR SOUTH. NON VFR MONDAY...PRIMARILY NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE POINT THAT WE
WILL BE ON THE VERGE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TOWARD THE
ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY...WITH WINDS ON THE LAKE BACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THE LAKE
TUESDAY...BUT A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. FOR NOW FORECAST IS
LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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