Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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326
FXUS61 KCLE 231557
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1157 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the east coast Wednesday. Low
pressure is expected to move out of the plains across the Great
Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. The associated cold front will
move across the area Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest visible satellite is showing the development of a few cu
which will expand this afternoon. Still looking at sunny wording
in the forecast. Temperatures in the mid/upper 70s already. Looking
at continued warming with highs in the lower 80s.

Prev Discussion...
High pressure over the region today will keep the weather quiet.
The airmass is fairly dry for this time of year (PW of 0.75"
around the 25th percentile) which will support sunny skies today.
Expect a lake breeze this afternoon which could bring in enough
moisture for some cu development near the lakeshore. Temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer this afternoon as we start to see
some gradual warming aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge and subsequent surface high pressure will remain
the dominant weather force tonight through Wednesday morning as
they slowly push east. Another cold front is progged to moved
toward the forecast area and spread moisture with the frontal
boundary into the local area. Some high clouds will begin to push
into the local region Wednesday afternoon with the first chance
for rain arriving early Wednesday night. The threat for rain will
continue through Thursday night in advance of the cold front. The
cold front moves through the area late Thursday night or early
Friday morning. Once the cold front pushes east, high pressure
will begin to build east toward the area just in time for the
weekend.

Fairly strong warm air advection will take place at the surface
especially Thursday into Thursday night ahead of the cold front.
South to southwest flow will be persistent ahead of the frontal
boundary. This flow will not be from the Gulf of Mexico as an
upper level high pressure blocks the flow of Gulf moisture into
the local area. Cold front will rely on moisture associated with
the boundary. As cold front moves through Thursday night early
Friday morning, cold air advection will begin to take place Friday
into Friday night. Would not be surprised to see more waterspouts
Friday into Friday night along the lake shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be over the region on Saturday before
shifting to New England on Sunday. Models generally in agreement
that an upper level ridge will be located over the Eastern United
States into early next week with warming temperatures. Unfortunately
long range models still differ on both timing and strength of when
the next shortwave will try to round the ridge. There will
eventually be an increase in clouds and moisture but this remains
hard to time with the GFS being the fastest and most aggressive with
the approaching shortwave energy. Both the 00Z GFS/ECMWF show a
front trying to stall over the area by Monday and will continue with
the chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will trend
warmer over the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 80s by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure will be over the region through the TAF cycle with VFR
conditions. Light southerly winds are expected today except with a
lake breeze at CLE/ERI causing a wind shift to the north this
afternoon. Otherwise scattered cumulus clouds will develop near
4500 feet this afternoon with high clouds spreading in from the
west overnight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms starting
Wednesday night into Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the region will shift to the east coast on
Wednesday. Southerly winds of 5-10 knots on the lake this morning
will give way to lake breezes with onshore flow this afternoon.
Southerly winds will return on Wednesday and increase out of the
southwest to 10-20 knots Wednesday night and Thursday as an area of
low pressure moves across the Upper Great Lakes. Winds will shift
around to the northwest on Thursday night as the cold front sinks
south across the lake. High pressure will return to end the week
from late Friday through Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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