Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 110012
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
712 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northeast towards the Great Lakes Saturday
night and Sunday with snow overspreading the area. The snow will mix
with rain as a warmer air lifts north through the region Sunday
night. As the low departs northeast out of the Great Lakes, a cold
front will push east across the area Sunday night through Monday, An
arctic cold front will push across the region early Tuesday night
then high pressure will move into Ohio by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Southerly flow in advance of the next storm is pushing the lake
effect bands north into the the lake. A slight westerly flow still
exists near Erie County and we are still receiving reports of
moderate snow in the northeast sections of the county. I will
keep the LES warning until 10pm for Erie. The LES warnings will be
allowed to expire at 7pm for all of the other counties. I will
replace these warnings with a Winter Weather Advisory for the
synoptic system approaching the region. Surface reports in Indiana
already showing some lighter snow reaching the ground. This should
expand rapidly eastward this evening and light snow may reach NW
Ohio after 10pm. Most other counties should not see light snow
until after midnight.

Previous Discussion...
Lake effect snow bands will continue to drift northeast up the
lakeshore through the evening hours as low level flow continues to
back southwesterly in advance of the next weather system. Expecting
the more impressive looking bands to quickly move up toward Erie by
00Z, with more shore parallel/disorganized squalls lingering through
06Z. Cannot rule out a few more inches before the bands lift
northeast out of the area, with the highest amounts in Ashtabula and
Erie counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Focus quickly shifts to low pressure approaching the Great Lakes
region from the central Rockies late tonight through Sunday. Snow
will overspread the region from west to east after 03Z tonight
within area of broad, fairly potent isentropic ascent ahead of
the low. Should be a fairly efficient snowfall process with lift
centered in a deep saturated DGZ and moist sub cloud layer.
Generally expecting 1 to 3 inches before 12Z, with the highest
amounts west of I-71, and wouldn`t be surprised to see some higher
amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range west.

Main area of lift will skirt across the the northern half of the
area during the day Sunday. Models have varied a bit on the
placement of the heaviest precip. Have generally went with a model
compromise leaning toward the SREF. A little concern about the
recent uptick in model QPF, however after 12Z, snow ratios should be
lowering a bit as DGZ depth decreases significantly with ongoing
WAA in the lowest 15kft. Generally forecast 1 to 3 inches
widespread during the day, with 2 to 4 from Toledo to Sandusky.

WAA will continue Sunday evening to the point of p-type changes from
south to north after 5 PM. Current thinking is that much of the area
will see a mix south of I-80, with some possible periods of complete
changeover to rain after 00Z along/south of US-30 east of Upper
Sandusky. If the warm air struggle to advect further north, this
could result in higher amounts north of US-30 after 00Z tomorrow,
however for now, forecasting another inch or so for most of the
area, with 1 to 2 in the higher elevations of NW PA and far NE OH.
This results in event snowfall totals of 3 to 7 inches along/north
of the US-30 corridor, with possible higher amounts in Lucas/Wood
counties. Expanded the advisory for most areas along/north of US-30
with the exception of the counties currently in the lake effect snow
warning. Once the warning is expired for these counties, a winter
weather advisory will likely be needed.

The system/cold front will exit the area late Sunday night/early
Monday morning, with some lingering lake effect for the snow belt
areas. Not anticipating too much snowfall or accumulations given
fairly shallow inversion heights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Temperatures will continue to average well below normal much of this
week. Colder air will move in Tuesday in the wake of a cold front
with afternoon highs remaining below freezing in most locations.
Temperatures Tuesday night will drop down into the teens and maybe
all the way to near 10 degrees in northwest Ohio. Just how cold the
temperatures get will depend on what kind of snowpack we have
around. There will be a continued chance of a few snow showers
downwind of Lake Erie much of the week, with the best chances being
Wednesday night through Thursday night. More accumulating snow will
be possible during this period. More on that once we get closer.

A 1030 mb high will move overhead on Thursday and that may clear the
western end of the area out. It will also lead to high temps 20 to
25 degrees below normal with highs struggling to make the lower
teens and lows approaching 0 degrees. Friday into the weekend looks
interesting as both the GFS and ECMWF continue to bring a strong low
up through the Great Lakes with more precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Lake effect gradually trying to push north and up the lake to
Buffalo. This will make room for the next storm system pushing
west to east toward the forecast area at this time. A general snow
that will affect the entire area will spread west to east across
the area tonight and should reach the Toledo and Findlay areas by
10 PM this evening and move east from there the rest of the night.
Ceilings and visibilities will quickly drop as the snow moves into
the area. Lowest ceilings expected to be around 700 feet late
tonight into tomorrow while visibilities will drop to around 1/2sm
mile especially tomorrow when the heaviest snow arrives.
Accumulating snow of 2 to 4 inches expected during the TAF period
across the area with more expected beyond the TAF period. Some mix
of sleet and/or rain possible during the day tomorrow across the
southern tier areas.

OUTLOOK...Widespread light to moderate synoptic snow into Monday
for the entire forecast area. Lake effect snow will continue in
the snowbelt east of CLE into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4 PM.
Southwesterly winds will gradually become southerly late tonight
into Sunday morning. We may need a Small Craft Advisory Sunday night
as a cold front crosses the lake. Breezy westerly winds will
continue on Monday before Monday evening as an area of high passes
to the south. Another arctic front will cross the lake on Tuesday
and more small craft headlines are possible. Strong west winds will
then continue through the end of the period, increasing further
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday
     for OHZ012>014-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday
     for OHZ010-011-020>023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday
     for PAZ001>003.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for
     PAZ001-002.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Mottice


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