Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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972
FXUS61 KCLE 211500
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1000 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push southeast across the area this morning. High
pressure will shift east across the lakes tonight and Thursday. A
warm front will lift back north into the area by Friday and stall
into Sunday until low pressure moving north across the lakes pulls a
cold front across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Minor updates to hourly temps and pops with this forecast
update, otherwise forecast remains largely on track for today.
Cancelled the flood watch for Lucas county as upstream rainfall
amounts suggest additional totals will be around a tenth of an
inch or less, so the threat for areal flooding has ended. River
levels, especially along the Maumee, will remain elevated
through today but should start to recede in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Original discussion...
As the wave of low pressure moves NE of leri today, the trailing
cold front will be pulled SE across the cwa. A band of shra and
possible tsra will progress SE across the area with expected QPF of
a third to two-thirds of an inch. The lesser amounts should be over
the SE half of the area. Don`t think this will be enough to lead to
flooding problems, other than the rivers that are already running
high. Will leave the flood watch going for Lucas county where more
rainfall has occurred over the past 36 hours.

The SW flow aloft will cause the front to stall just south of the
Ohio river tonight thru Thu. A wave of low pressure will move along
the front so the upper flow will pull moisture well north of the
front. Best chance for precip will be over the SSE half of the cwa
late this evening into Thu morning.

Temps aloft will not be able to cool enough for just snow to occur
so with surface temps getting below freezing, expecting mix of
precip. Expect any icing from the fzra to be less than a quarter of
an inch so probably will just need a winter wx advisory for the
situation. Still uncertainty with how cold temps will get thus
affecting where the precip type transition line will set up so will
hold off on an advisory for another look at next set of data from
12z model runs.

Precip with this wave should shift east of the area Thu but some
lingering drizzle may hang around the rest of the day. Highs Thu
expected to rise above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The next wave of low pressure will be moving along a cold front
toward Indiana Thursday night. It appears temperatures will be very
close to freezing so we will need to monitor for some light freezing
rain. It looks like it will be a short lived event but could cause
impacts for the morning commute across NW Ohio Friday morning.
Temperatures quickly warm on Friday with the threat of freezing rain
ending early in the morning. The rain may then become locally heavy
for several hours Friday afternoon into the evening. This will
likely have impacts on area creeks and rivers since many of them are
running above normal levels. High pressure should help to nudge the
cold front south of the region briefly Friday night into early
Saturday. However the next wave of low pressure will push the
frontal boundary back to the north onto Lake Erie by Saturday night.
Fortunately it looks like the region should stay warm enough to keep
the precipitation all rain.

After lows in the lower to mid 30s Friday morning it looks like the
region should range from the mid 40s to upper 50s. Slightly cooler
on Saturday but highs should be within a couple degrees of 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Locally heavier rain may occur through Sunday morning with some
flooding concerns persisting. The cold front should clear the region
by Sunday evening with some much needed drier air arriving. High
pressure should then be the main weather feature Monday into
Tuesday.

Sunday should see midday highs then slowly cooling in the wake of
the cold front. A couple degrees cooler on Monday and Tuesday but
highs should be above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Cold front will move SE of the area by early aftn. Band of mainly
IFR in cooler air just behind the front will progress across the
area followed by some improvement NW to SE during the afternoon into
early evening.

The precip will lift back north tonight. Colder air will cause a
changeover to a wintry mix of precip with fzra becoming a likely
precip type. Conditions will then worsen from south to north from
02z thru 08z as the precip pushes back northward tonight.

SW winds gusting up to 25 knots ahead of the front will diminish and
shift to the NW with frontal passage then continue to veer to the NE
the rest of today into early tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely to dominate most of the time thru Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds will shift to a northwesterly direction as a
cold front crosses the lake this morning. This should bring much of
the ice back to the south shore of the lake. Winds will shift to the
north overnight and then increase from the northeast on Thursday as
the next area of low pressure approaches. Expect to see winds to
increase to 15 to 20 knots and persist into early Friday morning.
Lighter winds should arrive by Friday night as high pressure briefly
controls the area. Another area of low pressure will approach
Saturday with northeast winds once again increasing to 10-20 knots.
The strong area of low pressure looks like it will move into the
Western Great Lakes by Saturday evening with southwesterly winds
increasing to at least 15 to 25 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Mullen



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