Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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783
FXUS61 KCLE 251603
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1203 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will move across the region today. High
pressure from the upper midwest will slide across the lower Great
Lakes through mid week. A cold front is expected to sag south to
near Lake Erie on Thursday. Low pressure is expected to develop
across the midwest and move east across the area Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cut back on temperatures a couple of degrees where the cloud
cover was thicker. Made thunderstorms "scattered" across northwest
PA and Trumbull County OH for this afternoon. Adjusted the sky
cover based on current trends. No other changes for the midday
update.

Earlier "Today" discussion...
Difficult to find the weak cold front. There is a prefrontal
trough from eastern Lake Erie across northeast Ohio. There may
also be an outlfow boundary from the thunderstorm complex that
crossed Ontario earlier this morning. The true cold front looks to
be where the dew points drop off across Michigan and northern
Indiana. A bit of a wait and see as far as which boundary spawns
new thunderstorms. Made some minor adjustments to the pops for
today but the overall forecast is similar with the highest pops
across the southeast counties from Youngstown to Canton to
Millersburg and Mount Vernon. The risk of storms should taper off
near the lakeshore as the afternoon goes on. We can probably see
enough duration of sunshine to get temperatures to the upper
80s/near 90 except up the east lakeshore where the west wind will
come onshore. No other changes for the mid morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front should be south of the County Warning Area (CWA) during
the evening hours with high pressure beginning to build into the
area in its wake. Dry conditions will then persist into Wednesday
night. The area of high pressure will weaken as another weak cold
front sags into the area on Thursday. Not all that much moisture
to lift ahead of the front but there could be some
isolated/scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
The better chances will arrive late thursday night into Friday as
a ripple of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary that
stalls over the area.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal averages
through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The slight dip in the jet stream/relaxation of the upper ridge will
hold through the weekend. A presence of a couple weak disturbances
and a nearly stationary frontal boundary will necessitate low pops
for Friday and Saturday and possibly Sunday as well. Broad brushed
precip chances as timing this far out not possible. Temperatures
will be seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front still northwest of the area...from central Lake Huron
to central IL. This will be passing across the area today and may
spark new showers/thunderstorms. Coverage is not expected to be
great and therefore only included VCSH at all sites except ERI
where a VCTS was mentioned. VFR outside of any showers and
thunderstorms and outside of early morning MVFR vsbys. By late
afternoon/evening the drier air will be winning out and we will
see clearing skies. Winds will shift from the southwest to the
west and northwest with the gradual wind shift that accompanies
the cold front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in fog/mist possible each morning. Non-VFR
possible in thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow will increase today ahead of a cold front. There will
be a time this afternoon where waves just offshore across the east
end nearshore waters will likely get to 4 feet. With 2 to 4
capturing most of the day will go without a Small Craft Advisory.
The cold front will come across the lake this evening and bring
winds around to the west and then north while diminishing. High
pressure will then center itself across the Midwest and lower Great
Lakes through mid week. The next front to make it to the lake
arrives Wednesday night...stalling south of the lake to end the
week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Oudeman



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