Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281811
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
111 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NOW
EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND WILL USHER IN NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRECIP IS PRETTY MUCH GONE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PULLED THE
REMAINING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING DOWN
A LITTLE. STILL THINK WESTERN AREAS WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY BY MID
AFTERNOON.

ORIGINAL...COLD FRONT NOW ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST ENDING PRECIP JUST WEST OF A
CLE- MNN LINE. CURRENT TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE TAKES IT TO NEAR AN
KERI-KCAK LINE ABOUT 1015Z AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 13Z OR SO.
PRECIP COULD END AS A MIX AS TEMPS DROP TOWARD MORNING BUT NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS WEST OF CHICAGO ALTHOUGH RANDOM
HOLES ARE DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME. BELIEVE DAY WILL BEGIN
CLOUDY ALL AREA BUT STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE BREAKS ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST AS WE WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO MIX. HIGHS NOT FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPS
MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY CAK AND YNG ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S SO HIGHS THERE ACTUALLY LOWER THAN
CURRENT AS TEMPS WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR 40 BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECTING DRY WX TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MID DAY. SLIGHT CHANCES
RETURNING FOR THE SNOWBELT AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS POST SECONDARY FRONT AS
850MB TEMPS DROP TO -12-14C. STILL WITH LAKE TEMPS AT
+3C...DIFFERENTIAL ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LES. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS SNOWBELT EARLY TUESDAY AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE AS MOISTURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A WEAK UPPER TROF/SHORT WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER TO DRIED IT OUT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH -15 TO -18C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST
LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL BRING CHANCE POPS FOR LES BACK TO THE
LAKESHORE. DRY AIR ELSEWHERE HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET POSITIONED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND NOT ALLOW ANY MORE OF THE COLD AIR
TO SINK SOUTHWARD FOR THE TIME BEING. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND GETS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED WITH
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND A DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FOR NOW PLACES LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL REGION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS WARM
AIR ADVANCES NORTHWARD PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH A
WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET AND A PERIOD OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOO. THE
DEGREE/SPEED THE COLD AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE IS IN QUESTION
TOO...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING HEIGHT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RA-/SN-
FROM GEAUGA COUNTY TO YNG SHOULD END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS WEST OF CLE TOWARD SUNSET
WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY LIFTING TO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE FROM MFD TO
CLE TO ERI AND YNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EAST OF CLE AFTER 00 UTC
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA. VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TWO
THIRDS UNTIL MID MORNING...WITH WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDING AFTER THAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON
THE LAKE WEATHER FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
THEY WILL SETTLE BACK TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AS THAT HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH.
NEXT INCREASE IN WIND/WAVES LOOKS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE...FOR NOW...WILL BE
FORECAST TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
WITH THE GRADIENT AND FETCH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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