Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041103
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ASHLAND AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS. ALSO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP EAST IN THE
GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

COULD SEE A SPRINKLE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA
EARLY TODAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY/PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
AROUND 80 SOUTH AND WEST...MID AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IT WILL MOVE
EAST AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE DAY.
COULD SEE GFS DRIES OUT THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WED
THRU FRI BUT ALSO SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT TRIES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA AT TIMES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SMALL
CHC POPS GOING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY ALONG
WITH KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING SE OVER THE AREA SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR. ANY PATCHY FOG
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 14Z AT MFD WHERE
THE FOG IS DENSER. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...DON`T SEE A LOT OF CU
FORMATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD
INCREASE THE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AT CLE AND ERI TO NEAR 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PATCHY MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST
SUN INTO MON CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SE THEN SOUTH.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS THEN TURN NW INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR LATER TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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