Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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183
FXUS61 KCLE 280231
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
931 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the SE coast tonight.  This will allow a
low pressure system to track into the Central Lakes Tuesday.  The
low will eject Wednesday forcing a strong cold front across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Last little bit of upper wave exiting eastern OH with a few
sprinkles still showing up. Otherwise bulk of the remainder of
the night will be dry. Showers on the doorstep of Toledo/Findlay
around 6 am. Temperatures are on target too. So little change
with this mid evening update. Previous discussion follows.

Weak short wave SE OH will move quickly east of the forecast area
this evening. With this early evening update have drawn out the
mention of sprinkles a while longer into the evening across our
southern counties. Have had a drizzle report at Mt Vernon and
light rain at Wooster. But this will pass over the next three
hours.

Large ridge of high pressure that has been over the Eastern Lakes
will move off the SE coast overnight. This will allow a low
pressure system to move into the Central lakes Tuesday. As a
result the south winds will increase overnight across the
forecast area ahead of the low. That said expect the low temp
for tonight to occur near midnight with steady or slowly rising
temps overnight.

Models not in good agreement on precip ahead of the system...but
expect rain to move into NW OH toward daybreak tomorrow.  So will go
with chance pops NW OH after midnight tonight. No change here
with the update. Have made tweaks to sky cover for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Although models differ on timing trend is definitely similar.   Low
moves into the Central Great Lakes tomorrow lifting a warm front
across the forecast area.   Expect rain showers to spread east
across the forecast area tomorrow with the front. However...left out
mention of thunders as dew points do not make it into the 50s until
evening.

Much better chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night.  The 850mb winds
increase to 65 knots while a 125kt 300 mb jet noses into the Great
lakes.  But will not hit it too hard since it will not occur until
overnight Tuesday.  Models also differ on timing of TSRA.   GFS have
the storms reaching NW OH toward midnight local while the NAM is a
good 6 hours slower.  Based forecast on the ECMWF which was in
between.

Showers and thunderstorms will move east across the forecast area as
the front moves through on Wednesday.  Luckily best shear moves east
of the area Wednesday morning too.   Falling temperatures behind the
front will support a changeover to snow Wednesday evening. By
midnight local expect all precip to fall in the form of snow. The
850mb Temps dip to -12c by daybreak Thursday...so expect some lake
enhance snow showers in the snowbelt Thursday morning.  High
pressure builds in quickly on Thursday so snow should taper off
during the afternoon.

Models continue to track a clipper system across the upper Ohio
Valley Thursday night.   GFS continues to be much further north with
the track than the ECMWF.  For now will go likely pops across the
southern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad upper-level trough will move through the Great Lakes Friday
and eventually off the Northeast coast by Friday night. There will
be a chance of snow showers ending from west to east during the day
on Friday. A surface high will move in from the west Friday evening
into Friday night, bringing an end to all precipitation chances.
Highs Friday will be slightly below normal.

As the high shifts off to the east on Saturday, winds will shift
back around to the southwest bringing warm air advection into the
region. Most areas will see highs on Saturday in the middle and
upper 40s, except for northwest Pennsylvania where highs will be
stuck closer to 40. A weak surface trough will move across the
Southern Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, which will bring a
chance of snow showers early - transitioning to rain showers by late
morning - across northern portions of the forecast area.

Another weak disturbance looks to move north of the area Sunday,
which could lead to a few showers across the area, but confidence in
how this plays out is quite low. Sunday looks to be quite warm once
again with temperatures rising 15 to near 20 degrees above normal.

The next significant chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday
night into Monday as a low approaches the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Swath of MVFR ceilings and a few sprinkles across central Ohio
and part of northeast Ohio will slide off to the east early
tonight. Showers will develop over the Midwest and lower
Mississippi Valley tonight and spread east northeast across the
forecast area toward daybreak and during the day Tuesday as the
low level jet and moisture advection increases. Ceilings will
lower to MVFR and IFR ceilings may develop Tuesday but not
enough confidence to forecast it in the TAFS at this point. The
showers may taper off for a while Tuesday afternoon especially
across northwest Ohio. Gusty south winds will develop at the
surface.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday night into Wednesday in -SHRA and
TSRA with gusty winds. Non-VFR Wednesday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will increase Tuesday afternoon as southerly flow increases
out ahead of a low approaching from the west. Winds and waves should
remain just below small craft advisory criteria during the day, but
will increase out of the southwest Tuesday night out ahead of the
cold front and then out of the west behind the frontal passage
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will turn around to the
northwest Thursday afternoon and weaken. They will stay that way
until Friday afternoon when they increase once again, this time out
of the northwest. A small craft advisory may be needed during this
time period, but there is still a bit of uncertainty this far
out.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Mottice



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