Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 042330
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
630 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A SECOND FRONT FOLLOWING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...THE MAIN PRECIP AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALL OF
THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS IT DRIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A WAVES MOVES ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE AND IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. DO NOT THINK THE PRECIP WILL GET VERY NORTH
INTO THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF A KMNN TO KMFD TO KYNG LINE
LIKELY DRY. REALISTICALLY ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE U.S.
30 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE COUNTIES
IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT HAVE GONE COMPLETELY DRY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE WORST OF THE SNOW IF IT DOES MOVE
IN SHOULD BE JUST AFTER 00Z AND BY 06Z THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD
SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE SE. AS FAR AS ACCUMS GO...MAYBE AN
INCH...PERHAPS TWO OVER SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY WITH NO MORE THAN A
TRACE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. CLEARING IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS OVERHEAD
MOST OF THE NIGHT EVEN IN NW OHIO. AS RESULT TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
BE A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WILL HAVE ONE MORE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO DEAL WITH BEFORE THE
PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE. THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES THIS
WAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ONE LAST FRIGID NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SUBZERO
LOWS MOST AREAS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AT
NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET BUT THE AREA WILL START TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM
KCLE EAST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP
FOR NW PA AS THAT IS WHERE ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
GIVEN THE CHANGING PATTERN HAVE STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY. A LOT OF SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GROUND AND HAS TO BE DEALT WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING OF A CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE COOL DAYS OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS REACH
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST AT MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE TOLEDO WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD
WILL REACH FROM THE RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A
STALLED COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL OF SNOW BEING NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MARION TO YOUNGSTOWN. KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LINGERING THURSDAY AND THEN
NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND COULD TOP OUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE LAKE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY. WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. A CLIPPER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY KICK WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS UP SLIGHTLY BUT THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW GALE
FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





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