Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 240546
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south of the area this evening. An area of
high pressure will move south across the area through Sunday. A
cold front will move east across the area Monday afternoon. A
trough of low pressure will move south across the area Tuesday
followed by high pressure from the west through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The cold front continues to pull away to the south. The showers
that were over the lake earlier have dissipated and have gone
ahead and removed all mention from the forecast. Dew points are
only slowly falling and there should also be a fair amount of
cloudiness overnight. With that in mind have bumped temps up a
little over inland NW PA but left the rest of the area alone.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge will build east across the forecast area Sunday
night into Monday as an upper level low pressure system moves
southeast toward the area. This will force low pressure at the
surface to move east across James Bay and force a cold front east
across the forecast area Monday. More high pressure will build
east behind the cold front Monday night. The front will have some
limited moisture with it but should be enough to support a better
chance for showers across the area with the frontal passage.

As the Sunday high pressure slides east to the east coast, a
return warm air advection pattern will set up for Sunday night but
will be very short lived ahead of the cold front. So we should see
a brief uptick in temperatures Sunday into Sunday night and a
return back to cold air advection Monday and Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A transitional pattern look in store for the tuesday thru friday
period. An upper trough should start the period over the lakes
tuesday into wednesday with cooler temps...decent cloud cover and a
threat for instability shra...especially for the snowbelt. Later
wednesday into thursday the upper trough shiftS off to the east with
a ridge shifting east across the area. The ridge should bring dry wx
with warmer temps. Clouds may start to increase later friday as
moisture starts to return to the area but rain should stay well west
of the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A swath of lower clouds with MVFR and IFR ceilings behind the
cold front will continue to drift southward across the area early
this morning. Drier air will filter in during the mid and late
morning and ceilings will raise through MVFR to VFR. The clouds
will eventually clear this afternoon (Saturday afternoon).
Northeast winds will be a bit gusty mainly near the Lake Erie
lakeshore.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Monday and Monday night in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots has been enough to build waves
for the eastern 2/3rds of the lake. Have hoisted a small craft
advisory through mid morning on Saturday. The high will move se
into ny by sunday causing winds to diminish some saturday into
saturday night while veering more to the east.

A strong cold front should push east across the lake monday.
Increasing south winds will become sw at 15 to 25 knots later mon
into mon night then slowly diminish while becoming west tue night
into wednesday as high pressure builds into the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Adams/Mullen



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