Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300909
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
509 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTERACT WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO WHILE A PLUME OF
MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN SPREADING NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO SNEAK INTO NW INDIANA WILL
BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH TIME AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE...BUT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME LEADING ENERGY OR
EVEN REMNANT SUPPORT FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THINK ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL
CYCLE...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE SUN. MODELS SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
ML CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOCUSED FROM NORTHWEST OHIO...EXTENDING NE
TOWARDS CLEVELAND AND ERIE BY THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION TODAY
WILL BE TO THE NE AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS WHICH WILL COULD RESULT IN
SOME TRAINING OF STORMS. DUE TO THE THREAT OF TRAINING...MODERATE
STORM MOTION AND ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...EXPECTING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COVERAGE
OF THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT HARD TO DETERMINE
SO DID NOT WANT TO GO WITH ANY FLOOD WATCHES...BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAVORED AREAS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS WOULD
BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A WET MICROBURST WITH LIMITED
ORGANIZATION TODAY. ONE QUESTION WILL BE IF IT TENDS TO PROPAGATE
TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME TOWARDS THE BETTER INSTABILITY SO THAT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO WATCH WHICH MAY HELP REDUCE TRAINING. WARM MID-
LEVELS MAY LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASING TREND
AS WE LOSE DIURNAL SUPPORT...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIDES NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PLACE A SWATH OF RAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE LOW WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST AHEAD OF IT. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES IN NE OHIO AND LOWER THEM
TOWARDS TOLEDO. MODELS ARE PLACING A 1.50-2.00 MAXIMA OF RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK BUT THIS MAY END UP CLIPPING
NORTHWEST OHIO AND THEN LARGELY PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE TODAY...WE MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY IF A SECONDARY ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
THE INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AS SEEN ON THE GFS SO WE ARE
STILL TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE ON MONDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION BECOMING
LIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HELPING TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO THE 70S EXCEPT 60S NEAR LAKE ERIE. A
COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD TRYING TO TIME THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY
AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A WAVE ON THE STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
HAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE FRI WHEN A WEAK TROUGH
IS SHOWN MOVING EAST THRU THE LAKES. DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ON WED THEN
BY FRI ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON WED SHOULD INCREASE
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI AS EAST WINDS TURN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A FEW HOURS
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH PATCHES OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCT SHRA THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP
ON SAT...MAINLY IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT A BAND OF CONVECTION TRIES TO DEVELOP NEAR CLE AROUND
13 TO 14Z THEN PUSHES EAST INTO NW PA THRU 17Z. THIS MAY BE
SOMETHING TO FOCUS ON BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP TAFS BROAD-BRUSHED BUT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS AND
CONTINUE THRU 06Z. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS MOST OF THE
TAF SITES BY 06Z CAUSING SW WINDS OF 10 T0 20 KNOTS TO TURN NW TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING
CAUSING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO SHIFT TO NW THEN NE AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY. NUMEROUS TSRA WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO BEWARE. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
END OF TONIGHT THRU SUN EVE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE LAKE. THE HIGH
SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHT E TO NE WINDS ON WED AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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