Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270520
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE. IN MICHIGAN IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES WITH SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING THAT
FAST AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SO IT COULD BE DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT FOR THE NEXT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE ERIE
AREA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A FLURRY OR TWO COULD OCCUR AT CLEVELAND
BUT WILL LEAVE IT DRY THERE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MOVE SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH THIS MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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