Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 051706
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
106 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA SO
WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY NEAR CLE CAK AND BJJ.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION  SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY. THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BACK SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY
REACHED TOL BUT PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL DRIFTING WEST ALONG
THE LAKESHORE OF NY PA AND CENTRAL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. CURRENT MAX AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHEST READING NEAR TOL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT THE SAME
TIME A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NEAR DELMARVA. THE AREA WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY BOTH SURFACE FEATURES WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY THOUGH EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE
EAST...UNLESS THE COASTAL LOW RETROGRADES BACK WEST AS SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE IN THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 70F...WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MORE CLOUDY EAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT NOT CONVINCED
WE`LL SEE SHOWERS GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S WHICH
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CAPES
AROUND 300-500J/KG. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT IS FAVORABLE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED CAPE FADES QUICKLY AFTER DARK AROUND THE
TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES. THE THICKNESSES FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BLOCKED AND SPLIT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME CHALLENGES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF SYSTEMS. RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS DAMPENED QUICKLY AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS FIGHT THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND BRINGS SHOWERS EAST
QUICKLY ON MONDAY. THE CMC HOLDS ONTO DRY WEATHER BUT THE TREND IS
WETTER AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND MENTION THUNDER FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE ECMWF IS MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT DROPPING THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE GFS LEAVES THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL...WITH TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY...70S...IF WE CAN GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HOLD
OFF THE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBYS TO
THE TAFS SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH SOME
LIFR POSSIBLE AT KFDY/KMFD WHERE THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START THE DAY AND
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GENERALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OHIO ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SET UP ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE NO STRONGER THAN 20 KNOTS BUT WAVES MAY REACH 3 FEET
AT TIMES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG
REACHING THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD WITH STRONGER GUSTS SO A SMALL CRAFT
MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.