Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 310201
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING DESPITE RATHER MODEST CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. A SERIES OF
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND WITH LAKE ERIE NOW WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING LAND,
IT BECOMES A SOURCE OF SUSTAINED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAKE AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT INTO THE SNOW BELT COUNTIES FROM CALE TO ERIE.
THE DEEP WIND SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS MAY INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS
THE IMPULSE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO WI SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE INCREASED SHEAR MAY HELP ORGANIZE THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE LAKE. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS AGAIN.

WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES IN THE SNOWBELT. CURRENT MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS LERI DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
SOME TSRA AS IT WORKS WITH THE WARMTH OF THE LAKE ERIE WATERS THUS
THE BEST THREAT FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN WILL BE A CLE AND
ERI WITH A LESSER THREAT AT YNG AND CAK.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR START TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW TO CLEAR OUT ALL BUT THE SNOWBELT WHERE
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BKN
CIGS AT ERI ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SHRA. CIGS AT CLE WILL PROBABLY
STAY BKN MOST OF THE TIME THRU THU MORNING.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCT TO BKN CU THRUT THE AREA FROM ABOUT
15 TO 16Z ON BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.