Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 201207
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
555 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level low will fill and slide SE as high pressure
builds over the area tonight.   The high pressure will remain
anchored over the area through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Removed areas of fog this morning in the west for the 930 update...except
Toledo area where I left patchy dense fog for this morning.

Original discussion...
Weak upper low will kick off a few showers/tsra this afternoon away
from the lake.  Capes rise to around 1200 j/kg, but little shear or
other lifting mechanisms.  With so little dynamics just kept low
chance pops going across North Central and NE OH this afternoon.
Diffuse boundary NW Oh will gradually wash out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The weak upper level low will fill and slide SE tonight as upper
ridge begins to build in. Expect more sun tomorrow with temps into
the lower to mid 80s as upper level ridge builds in.

Summer-like conditions will be in place to end the week as the ridge
strengthens aloft, extending well north of the Great Lakes. At the
surface, high pressure over Quebec will expand across the eastern
Great Lakes on Friday and remain overhead into the weekend. The
airmass dries during this time with a light east to northeast flow.
High temperatures will average 10-15 degrees above normal for late
September with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm pattern continues into early next week with the upper level
ridge axis slowly shifting eastward to New England. The trough over
the western US slowly approaches but does not appear to break down
the ridge over the Great Lakes until the second half of next week.
Will continue with above normal temperatures and dry conditions
through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
IFR conditions in the west due to diffuse front will become more
widespread toward daybreak...but improve by mid morning. Weak
upper low over the area will produce scattered tsra inland North
Central and NE Oh this afternoon. Do not expect widespread tsra
so just went vcts at mfd, cak and yng. Ridge will build in over
the area overnight.


OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Thursday through Saturday
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions expected to continue on Lake Erie
through the weekend. Winds will be light today with lake breezes
developing this afternoon. High pressure will strengthen over Quebec
on Thursday then expand across the eastern Great Lakes over the
weekend. East to northeast winds of 10 knots or less will continue
through the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC


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