Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 240900
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off of New Jersey will move up the coast through the
day. High pressure in the central plains will briefly ridge into
the region on Tuesday. The next storm system will move into the
Central Great Lakes from the Plains on Wednesday. A cold front
will move through late Wednesday and usher in colder air Thursday
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure off of New Jersey will move up the coast through the
day. This has kept the deformation zone over the central Great
Lakes with light rain and drizzle continuing. Expect the area of
lift to slowly weaken through the day with best chances of
measurable rain occurring this morning. Highs will generally be
in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Warmest across NW Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will ridge into the region tonight and persist into
Tuesday. The next storm system will move into the central Great
Lakes on Wednesday with a cold front crossing the region by
Wednesday evening. This will bring another round of rain to the
area. By Wednesday night the area will begin to cool again with
temperatures across the higher terrain likely getting cold enough
for some snow. Any accumulations will be light. Light snow will
continue across the area on Thursday as an upper level trough
moves through the central Great Lakes. The coldest air will arrive
in the wake of this trough with accumulating snow possible for
the snowbelt Thursday night through Friday night. Accumulations
are expected but current thinking keeps amounts below warning
criteria.

Wednesday will be the warm day of the short term with most
locations topping out in the lower 50s. Cooler Thursday into
Friday with highs in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level trough will swing southeast across the forecast area
over the weekend and will bring another surge of cold air to the
forecast area. An upper level ridge will move east across the
area Monday and begin to push the cold arctic air east and and out
of the area for early next week. This will set up a trend toward
milder temperatures for mid week compared to this weekend.

Due to the active weather pattern in store with troughiness and
cyclonic flow, moisture wrapping around into the forecast area will
bring a threat for some snow. A general light synoptic snow is
expected Saturday and Sunday. The flow in the lower levels will
support some lake effect snow in the northeast as well. Then, as
high pressure begins to build into the area, the threat for snow
will gradually diminish.

Guidance temperatures appear to be a bit on the warm side
considering cold pool that is progged to move southeast into the
area. Will shade temperatures down in a few degrees for maxs/mins
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
No improvement for the overnight.  Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions
will continue through the overnight. conditions will slowly
improve across the west Tuesday afternoon as high pressure moves
across the upper Ohio Valley.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday into Friday. Rain on Wednesday will
give way to snow Wednesday night. The synoptic snow will end from
the west Thursday afternoon. Then...lake effect snow will develop
in the snowbelt east of Cleveland and continue into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Wednesday and then
begin to increase Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure
swings through the area. Small craft advisories may be needed late
in the day Wednesday and again on Thursday. The small craft
advisory may be needed all the way into Saturday as gradient
remains fairly tight with storm systems moving through the area
during this time period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Oudeman


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