Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 161117 AAD
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
617 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the forecast area this morning.
High pressure will move quickly across the Lower Lakes tonight.
Low pressure will track across the Central Lakes Saturday
forcing an arctic front across the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes for the 630 am update. Cold front just through
CLE and should be east of the forecast area toward daybreak.
Band of showers pushing inland off lake Erie, more will
redevelop over the lake as the colder air moves in.

Original discussion... Cold front now into NW OH and should
move across the forecast area and be East of the forecast area
between 12z-15z. The 850mb temps drop to -5c to -6c this
afternoon as the much colder air behind the front spills across
the forecast area. There should be little change in the temps in
the East once the front goes through. Expect temps to hover in
the upper 30s in the East. In the West could see a little sun
late in the afternoon so went warmer there. Lake temps around
50f so expect some lake enhanced showers to develop later this
morning into the afternoon mainly in the snowbelt east of
Cleveland. Could see some light snow mix in along the higher
elevations but do not expect much in the way of accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moves quickly across the Lower Lakes tonight.  Clouds
will gradually scatter out from the west as the high shifts east
across the forecast area.  Increasing clouds on Friday ahead of
approaching system, but Friday should remain dry with temps
rebounding into the mid to upper 40s.

It still looks like we should see warm advection showers spread
across the forecast area on Friday night. Model soundings continue
to show elevated CAPE from about 825 mb to 500 mb. Not sure it is
enough to generate thunder but with the low level jet increasing and
the top of this layer below -20C, will include a mention of thunder
from late Friday night through Saturday.

The models are in better agreement on the timing of the front from
mid afternoon Saturday into Saturday evening. The model soundings
are not really breaking the inversion on Saturday until the front
arrives but with such a strong south flow one would think that we
should get decent warming and some gusty winds down to the surface.
The best chance for strong winds would seem to be with the cold
frontal passage. Will have to monitor the potential for wind. Highs
on Saturday in the 50s.

I guess I am not convinced there will not be a secondary arctic cold
front a little after the initial cold front but it is hard to say
looking at the models. In any case, it will turn cold enough for
snow later Saturday night and there may be a burst of snow with the
arrival of the colder air and the trough aloft. The window for good
upward motion with the trough aloft is somewhat limited to late
Saturday night into Sunday morning, then there will probably be some
subsidence. A trailing short wave could enhance the lake effect snow
again Sunday night into Monday. The brisk northwest flow would favor
inland locations in the primary snowbelt. Overall, it will likely
not be a major event but certainly seems there will be accumulating
snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is some debate on how quickly the winds will back to the
southwest but there will likely be some lingering lake effect snow
on Monday. High pressure is progged to slide across the Ohio Valley
by Monday night.

A fast flow is progged early next week. A short warm up is expected
ahead of the next reinforcing cold front due later Tuesday. Not much
moisture with the system. Highs Tuesday in the 40s. Probably back
into the 30s Wednesday with some lake effect snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Cold front just through CLE and will push east of the forecast
area toward daybreak. Widespread mvfr stratus deck will spread
over the entire area. Scattered Lake effect showers will develop
mainly east of CLE. Gusty West to Northwest winds will develop
with wind gusts up to around 30kt.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR persists across northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania into Thursday night with MVFR cigs. Non-VFR
returns as rain showers spread across the forecast area
Saturday. Rain changes to snow Saturday night. Lake effect snow
showers develops in the snowbelt Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross Lake Erie early this morning and winds will
veer more northwesterly and increase to about 30 knots with an
occasional gale force gust. Small craft advisories will remain in
effect. Winds will continue to veer more northerly tonight and wind
speeds will diminish from west to east as high pressure slides
across the Ohio Valley.

Winds will come back around from the south relatively quickly on
Friday as low pressure begins to develop over the plains states. The
low will deepen significantly on Saturday and Saturday night as it
tracks across the eastern Great Lakes. Gale force winds will develop
as the cold front sweeps across Lake Erie later Saturday and
Saturday night. The system will move quickly and winds should begin
to diminish during Sunday and then back to southwest Monday into
Tuesday as the next cold front approaches.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Kosarik



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