Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 050126
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAKING ROOM FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO TRACK NEAR FAR EASTERN
OHIO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. A LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR EASTERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK UP THE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE BIT MORE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

MONDAY A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
RESPONSE TO A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS NNEWD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN OHIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PUTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP
FROM A CLE TO MFD LINE...AND EAST. RESERVED CHANCE POPS FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES THAT BORDER PA. EVERYWHERE JUST LOOKING AT SLIGHT
POPS. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM IS SPREADING THE DEEPER POCKETS OF
MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... SO WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE
GETTING ANY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PRECIP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM. THE EC SHOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER PA.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA AND WEAKEN
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD. WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60`S...STRONG STORMS
SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE NORTH.
DID REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH AT SOME POINT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK AS
TIMING THESE FEATURES IS TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SCALE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AND A CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OF 15-22 DEGREES
WILL NOT MENTION FOG IN THE TAF.

LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE CLE/ERI TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINTAINING GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH LAND/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KEC



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