Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 171349
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
949 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO IT...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST TONIGHT. DURING THE WEAKENING PROCESS...SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY
THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER CLOSE TO THE HIGHS WE SAW YESTERDAY AS WE SHOULD NOT
EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT COULD PICK UP SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES RESULTING IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE LAKE IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF
THE REGION...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD EAST AS WELL. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S ALL AREAS. POSSIBLY AROUND 80 IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AIR
FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AND UPPER LOW
DEEPENING JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE IN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO NWRN
OHIO. THIS FIRST COLD FRONT WILL COOL THINGS OFF FOR SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL
ANYWHERE FROM +8 TO +14C DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...TEMPS SHOULD STILL
REACH THE 70S.  MODELS DIVERGE A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY HOWEVER
THE MAIN THEME REMAINS OF AN UPPER TROF/OR CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES AND CANADA WITH WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROF.  AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER BROAD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AND BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING EAST OF US DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING POPS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WITH COOL AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT.  TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA.
WINDS LIGHT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG/MIST. EXPECT THIS TO EVAPORATE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 13-14Z TIME
FRAME.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE TODAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND BY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TO NEW
ENGLAND. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EXTENDING A RIDGE WSW THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES. DEPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO
TO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN NORTH
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...VEERING TO EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE LAKES. SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER DRIVING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.  SEE NO
HEADLINES UNTIL POSSIBLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHEN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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