Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 262234
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS SKY AND POP GRIDS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON OBS...RADAR AND SATELLITE.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
PULLING MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH IT. THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO AWAIT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DUSTING TO
MAYBE AN INCH OVER INLAND NW PA.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IT SEEMS AS IF THE CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN FAIRLY FAST.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED OFF OF LAKE ERIE
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOWBELT WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 OR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NW PA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WARMER ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THE ROCKIES AND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH BRIEF WARMUPS AHEAD OF
EACH SYSTEM AND ONLY SLIGHT COOL DOWNS ON THE BACKSIDE. TIMING OF
THESE QUICKER MOVING SYSTEMS DIFFICULT AND WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP WITH EACH. WILL HAVE TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW
AS TEMPERATURES AT TIMES MARGINAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH IT RA AND SOME SNOW
SHOWERS EXITING TO THE EAST. IFR/LIFR WITHIN THE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...IMPROVING TO MVFR AS IT ENDS. SLIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE MAY GET TO VFR
FOR A TIME TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHSN
FOR KERI YET...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ON ERIE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY AND A
CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING WINDS UP AGAIN. THIS TIME
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS...SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. BRIEF
RIDGING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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