Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 050548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED IN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND A
RIDGE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
STABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW ALOFT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE PIVOT MORE TO THE
SW. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AS THE INTENSITY WEAKENS. LOOKING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FILLING IN WHICH WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CONCERNED FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRYING
TREND WITH LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES FROM
PERHAPS STARK COUNTY TO GKJ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIRLY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE THE UPPER CLOSED LOW
FROM THE ROCKIES AS IT OPENS AND GET ABSORBS INTO THE MEAN FLOW
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO
START THEN ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE LOW APPROACHES
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...JUST A TOUCH COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR/IFR WITH THOSE AREAS OF
IFR BEING IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RECENT
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO START BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS ON THURSDAY WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT BUT CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES VARIABLE ON THE LAKE TO START WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES STRONGER OVERNIGHT AND FOR
THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS THOUGH. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND A SLIVER/WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE WINDS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER THE FRONT...MAYBE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. A WEAKER TROUGH WILL CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE LAKE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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