Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 240750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
350 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A cold front crossing the area will move off to the southeast this
morning. High pressure will drop southeast across the area Tuesday
into early Wednesday. A cold front will push southeast through the
region Thursday then high pressure will spread over the area for the


A cold front pushing se thru the cwa this morning will produce sct
shra/tsra for mainly the ne half of the cwa. Even though the front
pushes off to the se by aftn, a sharp upper trough will maintain
instability the rest of the day so a threat for shra/tsra will hang
on into early evening until temps start to cool and stabilize the
atmosphere. Rainfall amounts today will be light with mostly places
seeing a tenth of an inch or less. Highs will be cooler, mostly 75
to 80.

An isolated shra or two could come into the snowbelt off of Lake
Erie tonight into Tue morning due to the upper trough, but by Tue
aftn the trough should shift east enough to end a lingering threat
for shra for the inland areas by evening. Much of the cwa will see
more sunshine on Tue but temps will stay below normal with highs
from the lower 70s in the far NE to around 80 SW.


The surface high will be east of the area on Wednesday. Winds will
come around from the south and southeast and heights are progged to
rise as the ridge aloft builds in briefly. Some patchy high clouds
will brush the area and some cumulus may pop up in the eastern
counties but we should be capped and able to warm up nicely. 850 mb
temperatures are progged to range from 16 to 19C by the end of the
day. Will forecast highs a little above guidance, generally in the
lower and mid 80s and a few spots could push the upper 80s.

The models continue to struggle with the front on Thursday, with
many of the models exhibiting a look of convective feedback. A wave
of low pressure may indeed develop on the front, although probably
not as deep as progged. A wave will likely slow the arrival of the
front and will continue with chance/likely pops into Thursday night.
Given the uncertainty on the timing of the showers for Thursday,
will stick close to guidance temperatures with highs near normal,
about 80 to 85.


The surface front should be south of the area on Friday although the
front may be slower than indicated by the models if the surface wave
is weaker. There is also the chance for a shallow front this time of
year. With the trough aloft, cannot rule out a shower or perhaps
drizzle on Friday, probably just in the morning. Temps and dew
points will drop back to more comfortable levels.

Most of the models indicate a trailing short wave, perhaps a weak
closed low, that slides into the trough across the eastern Great
Lakes on Saturday. Will play the odds that the boundary layer will
be dry and stable enough to keep the showers at bay. High pressure
should be in control by Sunday. Temperatures over the weekend will
be a few degrees below normal.


.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A cold front near TOL will push se thru CAK and YNG thru the morning
with NW winds of 10 to 15 knots developing behind the front then
diminishing by late this evening. MVFR fog will likely form at the
inland locations the rest of the night. MVFR/Local IFR cigs should
also develop during the last few hours of the night into the first
few hours of daylight then gradually improve the rest of the day as
drier low level air spreads se across the area. ERI and possibly YNG
may not get above MVFR cig heights by the end of the day before cigs
start to lower again after dark.

There will be sct shra and isolated tsra for mainly the NE half of
the area thru today with possible isolated shra lingering near ERI
after dark.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR expected in the east late Mon night into Tue
morning. Non-VFR in thunderstorms with a cold front Thursday.


A weak cold front will drop south of Lake Erie early this morning
and winds will become northwest to west and speeds will pick up to
the 15 to 20 knot range this afternoon and the lake will get choppy.
Will issue a small craft advisory east of Cleveland starting at
noon. Another weak front will drop across the lake this evening and
winds will veer more northerly. Winds and waves will pick up
immediately following the front this evening and small craft
advisory conditions are likely into tonight east of the Islands.
Will start the small craft advisory between the islands and
Cleveland at 4 PM.

High pressure will build across Lake Erie on Tuesday. Northeast
winds will persist but wind speeds and waves should subside.

The high will be off to the east on Wednesday and winds will come
around from the south. A cold front is expected to drop across the
lake on Thursday although it may take until late in the day or at
night for winds to shift from the north. Small craft advisory
conditions may occur after the frontal passage Thursday night into


OH...Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through late
     tonight for OHZ012-089.
     Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through late
     tonight for OHZ009>011.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through late
     tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LEZ144>146.


SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.