Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 041143
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
643 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016
High pressure over the area will move east late Sunday. Sunday
night a disturbance aloft will move across the Great Lakes as a
surface trough moves through. High pressure will build back in
for Monday. Another storm system will bring rain for Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes to the forecast through this afternoon, aside
from temperature trends early this morning. Temperatures running a
couple of degrees warmer than previous forecast early this
morning. Timing of pops still looks on track, with closest
rainfall being currently reported in SW IN, which matches well
with hi-res guidance trends.
Quiet weather expected through at least early afternoon as ridging
continues to build across the region. Shortwave lifting from the
Plains into the Great Lakes this afternoon/evening. Models continue
to trend slower with the arrival of precip today, which not only
complicates timing of pops but precip type as well. Pretty strong
WAA/return flow in the SFC-850mb layer expected ahead of the wave
throughout the day, and expecting any precip at the onset to be
primarily rain, with perhaps a mix or all snow in far NW OH. For
now, kept pops in the chance range through 6 PM, ramping up pops in
the likely range after 6 PM.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave will swing east through the area tonight, with light
precip across the area. Main challenge will be precip type, however
went with a broad range of rain/snow mix, with little or no snow
accums for most areas. Across NW Ohio, where model soundings support
mainly snow, went with accumulations up to one inch, mainly before
06Z. Precip will rapidly end from west to east through 12Z, with
only lingering lake enhancement in NW PA by morning. High pressure
quickly builds in behind the wave Monday. Weak WAA and surface
ridging should provide a fairly nice day, with temps near normal.
Next chance of precip moves into the area Tuesday as southern stream
shortwave/attendant surface low tracks northeast through the Ohio
valley. GFS/ECMWF have trended a bit slower with onset of precip,
with the NAM noticeably faster, and have trended a bit slower with
pops. Held off with only slight chance before 12Z with likely/cat
pops expanding NE through the day Tuesday. Should be all rain for
the region aside from higher elevations in NW PA, where a mix cannot
be ruled out. The low pushes northeast of the area Tuesday night
with pops quickly diminishing. Much talked about arctic front begins
to slide southeast through the region Wednesday/Wednesday night. For
now, kept chance pops in the forecast Wednesday night as upper
jet/divergence tracks across the region despite little surface
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The biggest cold air intrusion of the season so far is in store for
the long term. A deep trough will be across the eastern half of the
U.S. and its effects will be felt into the early part of the
weekend. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the teens both
Thursday and Friday nights, with high temperatures remaining below
freezing Friday and Saturday.
With this cold air coming across a relatively warm lake, there is
potential for significant accumulations from lake-effect snow,
especially on Thursday and Friday. More on this as we get closer to
the event. Another storm system looks as if it will be approaching
the area from the west on Sunday.
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Expect mostly VFR conditions across the area through about 21Z.
After this, precip will begin to move in from west to east, likely
initially in the form of a rain/snow mix, but will shortly
thereafter transition to snow in most locations. May stay a
rain/snow mix along the lake shore. Expect widespread MVFR
conditions and possibly some IFR conditions into tonight.
OUTLOOK...Frequent non-VFR conditions Monday and Tuesday
afternoon through Saturday.
A number of systems will affect Lake Erie this upcoming week as
an active pattern continues. A high building over the area will
shift off to the east later tonight with winds turning out of the
southeast. Winds will turn back around to the west Sunday night
into Monday as a trough passes through. This will create a choppy
late, especially on the eastern half. An area of low pressure will
approach from the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and will pass just
south of the lake. This will turn winds out of the southeast and
then east on Tuesday. Westerly winds Wednesday and Thursday will
gradually increase as a deep area of low pressure moves into the
region. Windy conditions can be expected and lake-effect snow will
likely begin by Thursday.