Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 191930
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
330 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes tonight and Sunday. The high will move east of the
area on Monday. The next low will move northeast across the
Great Lakes Tuesday and take a cold front across the local area
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Will begin the evening with likely pops southeast with the
storms. Drier air moves into the area overnight as high
pressure builds into the area. High pressure will continue for
Sunday and sunday night with fair weather expected. Lows tonight
and Sunday night seasonal. Highs on Sunday a few degrees above
average.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be centered along the mid Atlantic coast on
Monday, with southerly/return flow regime over the Great Lakes/Ohio
valley. Kept Monday dry for the moment. However the environment will
become a bit unstable with dewpoints on the rise with upper 60s
expected, and high temps in the mid/upper 80s. Some models indicate
a convectively induced disturbance/MCV propagating through the
region on Monday which would be enough to spark some convection, but
will wait until some more model consistency to add pops during this
time.

Precip chances will increase late Monday night through Tuesday as a
phasing upper trough digs southeast from central Canada into the
Great Lakes region, bringing a surface low northeast through the
lakes and a cold front east through the region. Went with cat pops
across most of the area Tuesday afternoon as models are in good
agreement with timing/coverage of precip. Much cooler air will build
in behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, with highs on
Wednesday only reaching the low to mid 70s.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Could see a few lingering showers in the extreme east Wednesday
night into Thursday as much colder air moves over the Lake. But
a large area of high pressure builds SE over the Great Lakes
Thursday and remains entrenched through the end of the forecast
period. As a result it will be cooler and drier across the
forecast area through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Convergence increasing across inland nern OH along a developing
surface trough. Satellite show cu field beginning to enhance and
would anticipate showers and thunderstorm development within the
next hour or two. Will carry VCTS at KCAK and KYNG through 21Z.
May have to add an hour or so to that but will wait for
development. Elsewhere am expecting primarily VFR conditions as
drier air moves in behind the trough aloft which is moving
through the region.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/tstms on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build east across the lakes tonight through
Sunday night as a trough pushes south of Lake Erie this afternoon.
Winds will primarily remain west to briefly northwest tonight, 5-10
kts, before the surface high center slides south near the Ohio
valley Sunday as winds become more southwesterly, generally 5-15
kts. Southwest flow will slowly increase Sunday night through
Tuesday as high pressure slides east of the region and low pressure
develops over the Plains and deepens into the Great Lakes. Winds
will become 15-20 kts out of the southwest Tuesday before a cold
front pushes east across the lakes, with winds veer northwesterly.
Small craft advisories may be needed northeast of Cleveland Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, before north winds subside to 10 kts
or less Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Greenawalt


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