Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 271100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio valley will drift east
today. This will allow low pressure to track east across the
northern Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front
across the region. The front will stall across Southern Ohio on
Monday. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley again on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...No changes for the update.
Original...Satellite shows plenty of moisture moving north
through KY IL and Indiana early this morning and current
trajectories would bring it into the western third of the area
during the day. To our east and northeast however...high pressure
has been in place and providing a drier easterly flow into the
area. The high will continue moving east today and while much of
this moisture is taken north of the area by the models do expect
some of the deeper moisture to move into the western counties.
East of a KCLE-KMFD line will keep dry. To the west will have
slight chance pops developing by mid morning increasing to chance
pops in the afternoon. Plenty of sun but still more clouds than
yday. Highs mostly upper 80s to near 90.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight the influence of the high will be lost...the moisture
plume will overspread the entire area. Also...at 00z the NAM shows
a short wave moving in from the west. Expect at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms ongoing in the west to move east across
the area through the overnight. Models have high chance and likely
pops for the overnight but did limit pops to chance. Sunday a cold
front will drop south across the area. Will begin with chance pops
and diminish from the northwest during the afternoon. Monday and
Monday night mostly dry as high pressure moves across the region.
Tuesday the high will weaken as another cold front approaches from
the northwest. Still think we can get a dry day but will have
chance pops north Tuesday night as the front moves in. Highs 85 to
90 Sunday and mostly in the mid 80s Monday and Tuesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak se moving cold front may still be close enough to the area
for a slight threat for shra in the se on wed. High pressure
building back over the area should then provide dry conditions thru
fri allowing the drought to worsen. Temps are expected to be near
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Models indicate that a few sprinkles could push thru the tol and
maybe fdy areas into early afternoon but still expect vfr to
prevail. From mid afternoon on...there is a little better chance for
more significant shra/tsra at tol and fdy which may spread east near
lake erie tonight to possibly threaten cle aft 03z.
Patchy fog looks likely to develop later tonight as temps cool.
OUTLOOK...A chance of non-VFR Sunday in sct shra/tsra.
Weak wx features and very warm temps will allow a ne lake breeze to
set up for this afternoon. Winds of mainly 10 knots or less will
shift to the south tonight then a weak cold front crosses the lake
sun causing winds to turn to the nw by late sun then to the ne for
mon. The models differ on the timing of another weak cold front that
should cross the lake tue or wed but in either case...winds should
be out of the nw by late wed and could increase to 10 to 20 knots.