Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241309
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
909 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Central Appalachian Mountains will drift
of the Southeastern Coast of the US this afternoon. This will
allow a weak cold front to move southward to around Lake Erie and
become stationary Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure
will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into Northern Ohio and
Northwestern Pennsylvania by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning temperatures jumped into the mid 60s which will help them
cruise right into the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. With
southwest winds under 10kt we can expect a lake breeze to develop
this afternoon, which will cause an afternoon cooling effect in
the northeast lakeshore region. Some thin high clouds will drift
in from the west but are not expected to reduce heating. H850
temperatures will continue to warm as a ridge builds over the
area. This will keep the skies rain free and the temperatures
warming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will sag southward toward Lake Erie from the
north on Wednesday. Increased moisture levels, the approaching
front and the lake breeze boundary should all impact the
thunderstorm chances by Wednesday afternoon. However the coverage
of the thunderstorms will likely be limited since the upper level
ridge will remain fairly strong. So at this point in time it
appears that the best chances for isolated to maybe scattered
convection will be closer to the lakeshore and across NW Ohio. The
frontal boundary may never move south of Lake Erie Wednesday
night unless it gets a nudge by some thunderstorm outflow. In any
event the front will lift back to the north on Thursday with some
jet energy riding the north side of the upper level ridge. In this
pattern the better chances of thunderstorms should remain across
NW OH. Later shifts will need to monitor the situation Thursday
afternoon/evening as a piece of jet energy moves across Lake
Huron. It may be close enough to initiate thunderstorms along a
lake boundary to the east of Cleveland. The upper level ridge then
builds a bit more on Friday but with a moist atmosphere and warm
temperatures will have to keep a mention of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms.

It will be warm through the short term with highs warming a degree
or two each day. All inland locations should be well into the 80s
by Friday. It will also become more humid with each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term begins Saturday with models in decent agreement
showing an upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great
Lakes. At the surface...high pressure will be centered off the East
Coast while low pressure will be centered in the plains. The ridge
will build through Saturday before drifting east to New England for
Sunday exposing the area to more of a swly flow aloft. In general
both the ECMWF and the GFS show elevated moisture through the period
with diurnal instability leading to the expectation of scattered
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. temps will be above
normal with highs 80 to 85 Saturday and Sunday...cooling to 75 to
80 Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure and a dry stable airmass is across the region. VFR
conditions will continue across nrn Ohio and nwrn PA through
tonight.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday as well as
early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period
resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for
thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door
cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a
disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances
will increase again towards the weekend as moisture and instability
increase.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK


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