Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 121400
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER OHIO DURING THE NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL START MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO LATE IN THE DAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A STRAY SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO EXTREME NW OH
AFTER 4PM. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE. WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP...SOME QUESTION HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL GET. NONE THE LESS THE IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL. NO
CHANGES MADE WITH THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME QUESTION HOW
EXTENSIVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME KEPT
THE LIKELY IN THE NORTH WITH A CHANCE SOUTH. THE BEST OMEGA IS
NORTH. BASED ON THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM SEVERAL MODELS BACKED
OFF ON THE TIMING AND TRIED TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST POPS WOULD BE
MORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS AS A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING IN. THE THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WOULD BE MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A SURFACE TROF WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...SO CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD. THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER TROF
THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL...THUS THE GFS IS
A LITTLE DRIER ON TUESDAY THEN THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODEL. NOT
100% SURE WHICH MODEL WILL BE CORRECT...NORMALLY SYSTEMS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THIS TIME OF YEAR. NONE THE LESS CHANCE POPS ON
TUESDAY AND THEN LOWERING THE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
SPREAD BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS INCREASES AS THE ECMWF HAS A
559DM CLOSED LOW AT 500MB IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE HURON ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CLOSED LOW ALREADY APPROACHING NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH JUST A BROAD TROUGH LINGERING BEHIND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
CANADIAN MODEL DOES OFFER A COMPROMISE BUT IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
CAMP AND FEEL THIS IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE TROUGH AND TENDENCY TO WANT TO LINGER NEAR THE WARM GREAT LAKES.
GIVEN THE PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE COOLER AIRMASS...LOWERED HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY AND BUMPED UP POPS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT WITH COOL AIR ALOFT
STILL PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO END UP BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS.

THE TROUGH DOES START TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN OUR NE COUNTIES BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND STRONG MID-JULY SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 22-01Z AT TOL. OTHERWISE MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS FAR NRN OHIO FIRST...SINKING SOUTH WITH TIME
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. THINK THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES OF
ALL SITES SEEING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE AND INCLUDED VCTS AFTER 06Z. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS BUT THIS WILL BE VERY HARD
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS
EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY. ERI WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SW THIS MORNING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE
BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY BUT LAKE
BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AND
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 4
FEET ON THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED.

THE WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE...MAINLY TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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