Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 251938
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
338 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
Low pressure in the central plains will move northeast to the
western Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. A cold front will
extend south to the texas coast. The low will continue northeast
into Canada Thursday which will force the cold front east across
the area. High pressure will then build in across the region
Thursday night and early Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Satellite shows clearing across much of the area from this
morning however with the flow out of the east and low level
moisture remaining...clouds have been developing/moving west
from PA into northeastern OH. Will bring clouds back into the
eastern counties through the late afternoon and early evening
and then continue the trend of decreasing clouds. Elsewhere
clear/partly cloudy should be fine. Lows roughly 50 to 55.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday begins with low pressure to our east along the coast
and low pressure moving into WI with a cold front to TX. The
area will be between these two systems and we should be able to
have a decent day with plenty of sun. Temps at 850mb rise
through the day to 18-20C by evening. Guidance has highs east
third mid 70s...central third near 80 and west lower to mid 80s.
This seems reasonable and could even end up being a couple
degrees higher. Also expecting a decent south breeze so very
little lake breeze expected. Wednesday night will remain dry. The
system to our west will be approaching the area towards morning
Thursday. Will bring chance pops into the west half for the
morning for convection along and ahead of the cold front. Will
then extend this east through the afternoon. Wrap around briefly
moves into the area...mainly northwest...during the afternoon so
will go with likely pops there in the afternoon. Thursday night
high pressure moves in drying the area out from the west during
the evening. Friday will bring in chance pops for the west as
overrunning moisture clips the area.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Frontal boundary now appears to push south across Lake Erie into the
the area early Saturday which will result in a cooler northeast flow
off the lake. Have lowered highs several degrees, especially near
Lake Erie and across northwest Ohio. Showers will linger along this
boundary but have removed the chance of thunderstorms in the far
north where we will tend to stabilize early in the day. Chances or
precipitation expected to decrease Saturday night as shortwave
energy shifts east of the area and the ridge builds aloft.
Full latitude upper level trough advances towards the area on
Sunday. Surface low expected to occlude well west of the area with
the warm front pushing north towards Lake Erie. High temperatures
will depend on the exact progress of the warm front but expect most
locations to reach the 70s and southern areas to approach 80 with
some breaks in the clouds. Most of the area will be in the warm
sector with showers and thunderstorms approaching from the west late
in the day and shifting east with the occluded front into Monday. PW
values increase to near 1.5 inches ahead of the front and expect
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Given uncertainty in
timing, will wait to push pops any higher than 50-60 percent.
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Drier air moved into the region clearing out this morning`s rain
as it lifted north. Some mid level clouds are lingering in the
east but should lift out this afternoon. As for a lake breeze
believe ERI will be impacted but CLE should remain just south of
the wind shift. VFR conditions expected to continue into the
overnight. Prevailing southeast flow will continue tonight. As
winds go light towards dawn areas that received rain could see
some MVFR conditions notably ERI/YNG.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday
and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning.
East to southeast winds of 5 to 15 knots will continue on Lake Erie
through Wednesday before finally shifting around to the south with
the passage of a warm front on Wednesday night. Southwest winds will
increase to near 20 knots on the western basin Thursday afternoon
but will likely be able to avoid a Small Craft Advisory given the
off shore component. Winds will shift to the west Thursday night as
the associated cold front sweeps east across the lake.
A secondary cold front will move south across the lake early
Saturday. A period of east/northeast flow of 10 to 20 knots will set
up Saturday night ahead of the next low pressure system tracking out
of the Plains. Low pressure will track northeast through the Central
Great lakes on Monday with winds eventually shifting around to the