Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261741
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1241 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE
BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORCING A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY AND PULL A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. THE COASTAL LOW IS THROWING
BACK HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS CHANCE THAT ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE
EAST TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
EXTREME EAST.

STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND TAKE
THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING UP OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA TODAY AS AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA WILL PROBABLY HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S AS WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS.

ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE REVERSE LAKE EFFECT TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ALIGNED DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
THIS COULD SEND A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHSN OR SPRINKLES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES. ACCUMULATION FROM THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIP AND TEMPS A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND LATE THANKSGIVING DAY TO A MORE WESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS CONDITIONAL IN OTHER WORDS WEAK AT BEST.
ALTHOUGH INVERSION LIFTS TO OVER 10K FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT STORM TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY AROUND 3
INCHES IN CRAWFORD AND ERIE COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA. FURTHER
WEST...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY COME FROM LAKE EFFECT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER
ON SATURDAY A HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY FORCING
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE NEW 00Z MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE PERIOD.  WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY END FROM
NW TO SE DURING THE DAY.  IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TEMPS TO GET
COLD ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW AND THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL AS RAINFALL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.  850 MB TEMPS WILL
DIP TO AROUND NEG 6 BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT GIVEN AN UNFAVORABLE FLOW.  TEMPS
SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVER LAKE ERIE COULD SHIFT ONSHORE AT KCLE AND
PERHAPS KERI THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A TROUGH ALOFT AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS
FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE QUIET ON THE LAKE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS
THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE A LITTLE.  WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE EAST
1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE LAKE.  THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE S TO
SW FLOW TO RETURN TO THE LAKE.  SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TILL A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.  THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SIGNAL A CHANCE BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MORE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES LIKELY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA





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