Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 270524
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
124 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
High pressure off the east coast will move little through the
weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains Friday
will begin to move northeast on Saturday. This low will cross the
northern lakes early Sunday. A warm front from the low will lift
across the local area on Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
There were a couple showers that developed across the west around
sunset but they fell apart quickly since there is not a
significant trigger. 5H progs indicate that there might be a weak
trough moving across Ohio overnight. This may be able to initiate
a weak shower or brief rumble of thunder across the eastern half
of the County Warning Area (CWA).
Otherwise expect to see variable amounts of middle and high level
cloud cover through the night. Moisture levels area elevated so
expect lows to hold in the lower to middle 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue during the period. Rain chances
will be hit and miss during the period as there is a lack
organized forcing at the surface. It appears best chance for
storms will be on Saturday as the low over the Central Plains
lifts northeast toward the northern Lakes. At the same time a wave
will scoot up the west side of the upper ridge. It appears a weak warm
frontal boundary will try to lift across the local area at the
same time. The factors combined could provide enough forcing for
some organized convection. Given the areas location under the
upper ridge there will be little if any shear. So, the threat for
severe weather is minimal. The models are similar with this
scenario but all have slight timing differences. Will continue
with chance pops most of the period.
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than the
Memorial Day weekend. Highs will be in the 80s every day with
Saturday likely the warmest of the days.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will move south across the area on Memorial Day
with humidity dropping off a bit. The frontal boundary should be
south and east of the area early in the day so removed chances for
precipitation from most areas, with just a slight chance continuing
in the southeast. Daytime highs should only drop off a couple
degrees but lows will trend back into the upper 50s to near 60 with
high pressure overhead on Monday and Tuesday nights. Conditions
should remain dry through mid-week but we will need to start
watching for moisture return ahead of the next trough approaching
from the Plains during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Other than some widespread cirrus and a couple remaining cumulus
in extreme Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, skies look
relatively clear for the overnight. Biggest concern ahead is for
some potential MVFR mist/haze/fog developing at the TAF sites as
dew points remain in the 60s, making for a muggy night. Winds
across the area at still coming from the south anywhere from 5 to
12 knots. If these winds keep up, it may be difficult to get a
sustained period of reduced visibilities. Therefore...went with a
tempo MVFR group rather than a predominant group, but may need to
amend if the winds calm and the boundary layer decouples.
Otherwise, things will begin VFR and benign on Friday. Some
diurnal cumulus will begin forming in the late morning. There
could be an isolated shower Friday afternoon with peak daytime
heating, but confidence is low, so left out any precipitation
mention in the TAFs. Winds will remain 12 knots or less from the
south for Friday.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms as well
as early morning mist/haze/fog through Monday.
Generally good marine conditions expected through the Holiday
weekend with winds averaging 10 knots or less. Lake Erie is located
between high pressure over the southeastern states and broad low
pressure across the plains and upper midwest. Generally light wind
pattern will allow lake breezes to develop each afternoon on the
east half of the lake through Saturday. Low pressure will track out
of the plains across the central great lakes from Saturday night
through Sunday night with a weak cold front moving south across lake
Erie early Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage over the weekend.