Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 042310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES ON SATURDAY
WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE OUT. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE IN THE
SNOWBELT AND GONE WITH SCATTERED WORDING. REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS
INDICATING A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN A FEW
AREAS SO HAVE BUMPED ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

ORIGINAL...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
OVERCAST SKIES BUT CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS INDIANA. HAVE
DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND BY A FEW HOURS BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CLEAR OUT OF NW OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE WEST WITH MINS IN
THE LOWER 20S...TAPERING TO MID 20S IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO TIGHTEN UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE FLOW VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN AN UPTICK OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORELINE AND INTO NW PA.
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...THINK IT WILL BE
HARD TO GET SNOW SHOWERS IN CLEVELAND...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY TOWARDS ERIE PA. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY THEN SINKS SOUTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING MAINLY
TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY TREND UP DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO
ALMOST THE MID 40S BUT THESE MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MON/TUE BEFORE PULLING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL HIT A LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO CROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH THE SURFACE
REFLECTION/SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT TEMPS MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RA/SN MIX. LESSER
SNOW CHANCES LINGER INTO MIDWEEK FROM THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW.
NOTABLE LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT SHSN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EVENING...THEN
MORE ISOLATED TO NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. WITH A SHSN...BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE. DEBATING WHETHER OR NOT THE BETTER SHSN OFF OF KERI WILL
DIP SOUTH AND HIT THE TERMINAL. KERI HAS ANOTHER CHANCE OF A MORE
ROBUST SHSN OVERNIGHT WITH A MINOR TROUGH PASSAGE.
CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE AREA.
TOL/FDY TO IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERS ACROSS THE EAST
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEARLY 18Z FRI FOR THE VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT MAY VEER
MORE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE. BY FRIDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PREDOMINATE FLOW WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDS TEMPORARILY AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY ENOUGH
TO GIVE A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND ON THE LAKE. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN WINDS COME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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