Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS AND SKY CONDITION. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT MOST PLACES WITH A FEW AREAS OF RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS
AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHEAST BUT VERY LIGHT AND THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS
BACK OVER THE LAKE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS WAFFLING AROUND FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING BY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 04Z
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT TO AROUND 170 DEGREES AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC






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