Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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295
FXUS61 KCLE 231747
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1247 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the central Great Lakes today will move northeast
pulling a weak cold front south into the area this evening. The
front will stall across central Ohio tonight then lift north as a
warm front on Friday. Another area of low pressure will track out of
the Plains and pull a strong cold front east across the area on
Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Cold front is slowly settling south across Lake Erie with some
clearing associated with it. A band of clouds with increasing
instability is lingering over central and northeast Ohio. The
front will continue to crawl southward today and stall and may
be the focus for widely scattered convection mainly along and
south of US route 30 where instability is greatest. Have made
minor changes to temperatures and cloud cover.

previous discussion:
A rather weak frontal boundary extending from the sw Ontario
peninsula to near TOL and northern Indiana will gradually make
its way across the region during the afternoon with some minimal
drying behind the boundary. Instability will be increasing
during the day ahead of the front mainly over the southern
counties and a chance of showers looks reasonable. Only minor
changes were made to the forecast.

Temperature records for today are listed below:

Locations   Record/Year
Cleveland      66/2000
Toledo         65/2000
Mansfield      62/1985 and 1930
Akron/Canton   63/1906
Youngstown     66/1943
Erie, PA       65/1922

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low level baroclinic zone tightens up this evening and begins to
lift north ahead of low pressure tracking out of the Plains. Leading
shortwave energy lifting out of the trough will stream across
northwest Ohio and Lake Erie as the elevated front lifts north
with showers expanding. Better moisture advection arrives in
northwest Ohio towards 03Z with showers spreading eastward
overnight.

Surface warm front will be located over Lake Erie by Friday morning
and we will spend the day in the warm sector ahead of the
approaching system. Temperatures will soar on Friday with most
models showing low clouds mixing out across all but northwest
Ohio. The GFS is the exception to this and wants to hold onto
more cloud cover but this seems unlikely given how far we are
displaced from the low with the warm front well to the north. Highs
are forecast to range from near 70 degrees in Toledo to mid and
locally upper 70s in the east. We are forecasting record highs
at all locations and a few sites may even try to break the all-
time record high for the winter season.

Removed chances of precipitation from all areas by mid-morning
on Friday given the lack of moisture and forcing. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to approach from the west during the
evening in advance of the strong cold front. The Storm
Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms eastward to the Mansfield area with the Slight
Risk including almost all of northern Ohio. Cloud cover is
expected to be more extensive to the west which will limit
instability but strong forcing for ascent is expected as the
upper level low curls in from the west during the late
afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will arrive earlier in
the day and expect a cap to be in place until a strong jet of
nearly 90 knots at 500mb wraps in from the southwest leading to
rapid storm development. Some discrete cells seem possible
during the evening before organizing into more of a line
somewhere east of the I-75 corridor. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat but a few tornadoes are also a possibility given
the strong shear and expected low LCL`s. Storms will approach
our western counties after 8 PM and continue eastward overnight.
Instability will wane through the evening and expecting to see
a weakening trend with storms, especially after midnight.
Unfortunately any stabilization of the boundary is expected to
be rather shallow which means stronger downdrafts could still
pose a threat of severe weather through much of the night.

Temperatures will fall through the day on Saturday as the
strong cold front comes through. Winds will gust to 30-40 mph
behind the front, highest across northwest Ohio as a trough
lingers across Michigan. Precipitation will diminish across most
areas while lingering in the snow belt areas. P-type will be
rain for the bulk of the day but will transition over to snow
during the evening. It will take a few hours to develop, but
eventually expect lake effect snow showers to increase during
the overnight hours as instability increases over the lake
bringing minor snow accumulations to higher portions of the snow
belt.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure should be pushing up the oh valley sun bringing an end
to the lake effect shsn by later in the day.

The models show the main upper trough over the west monday that
shifts east into the midwest by late wed. There are a series of weak
s/w troughs moving across the region mon into wed so won`t fight the
superblend guidance pops, thus keeping chc pops going mon thru tue
with precip changing from a rain or snow threat to just rain by tue
afternoon as temps warm well into the 40s or 50s. As the main trough
moves into the midwest a more significant surface low should move
out of the plains and across the lakes wed pulling a cold front
across the cwa. The low and cold front should combine to produce
widespread shra tue night and wed with lake effect shsn expected to
develop wed night as temps drop below freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cold front is pushing south toward the lake shore and there is
the possibility that this is about where it could stall before
lifting back north as a warm front tomorrow morning. Some lower
ceilings and visibilities will be a problem overnight with some
light drizzle and shower activity. As front lifts north of the
area, clouds will scatter out at around 2500 feet for the rest
of the day tomorrow ahead of the next strong cold front. Not
expecting any thunderstorms through this forecast period but
should arrive during the late afternoon evening Friday. Winds
will flip around to a northeast component near the lake but
remain primarily southwest overnight away from the lake. The
winds will then increase to 15 to 25 knots during the day Friday
ahead of the cold front from the southwest.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR returns Friday evening/overnight then mainly just
snowbelt by later Saturday into Sunday. Areas on non-vfr
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will drop across lake erie this afternoon veering winds
from sw to north then ne for tonight then continuing to veer around
to the south by fri afternoon as the front lifts back north across
the lake. A deep low will move ne along the front across lake huron
fri night pulling a cold front across lake erie shifting winds to sw
then to west by later on sat as another cold front pushes across the
lake. Winds should increase to 20 to 30 knots on sat then gradually
diminish late sat night thru sun as high pressure moves up the oh
valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Adams



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