Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290153
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
953 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will weaken as a weak cold front
moves across the area on Sunday. High pressure will return to the
region for the first part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Only a few showers remain across the region as of 0145Z. Can`t
completely rule out a rumble of thunder but the chances of this
occurring are way too low to mention in the grids. Low level
moisture levels will remain elevated again tonight. This combined
with a decent amount of convective debris cloudiness should keep
lows in the 60s.

We will need to monitor the movement of a cold front that is
approaching the Chicago area. Outflow from the convection ahead of
the front may also introduce an area of convergence for early
Sunday morning across the western County Warning Area (CWA). More
details about this with the morning forecast refresh.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will move across the forecast area on Sunday.
The models indicate the front should move through during the
afternoon. The upper level dynamics with this front are fairly
limited however deep moisture is in place. I expected the shower
and thunderstorm activity to be more widespread Sunday afternoon.
SPC has placed most of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk
outlook for Sunday. Model CAPE values may exceed 2000 but the lack
of upper dynamics will limit the organization of the storms. Any
severe thunderstorms will most likely be pulse storms with
isolated downbursts and possible hail. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler on Sunday as cloud cover and thunderstorms are
expected with the frontal passage. However, if any areas see
extended sunshine, it is possible temperatures could reach the mid
80s again. A few scattered showers may linger Sunday evening but
high pressure will slowly build back over the forecast area by
Monday morning. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures should
occur through the first part of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall upper level pattern shows a ridge of high pressure building
east and then moving east of the area during this forecast period.
This ridge should continue to help support subsidence and warm air
advection into the local area. During the latter half of the
forecast period, an upper level trough will approach the local area.
The Gulf of Mexico will open up once again and force warm tropical
air into the forecast area by Thursday and continue into Friday. A
cold front will move east into the area and bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms. Latest models suggest a cooling trend
will take place into the weekend behind the cold front as upper
level troughiness and west to northwest flow occur.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Threat of thunderstorms diminishing with nightfall. VFR outside of
showers. Morning BR possible for a couple/few hours as moisture
levels have increased over yesterday. There is the chance for some
showers with possible thunder to move across the area Sunday
morning west through mid afternoon across the east. Best thunder
chances would be across the east with this feature with the
diurnally favored part of the day. Otherwise a cold front will be
approaching from the west toward 00Z MON. Have PROB30 for TS for
the western sites late in the TAF period. Winds outside of the
convection will return to a light south breeze for tonight and
Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in SHRA/TS Sunday evening. Areas of MVFR
possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
The lake is expected to be relatively quiet through much of the
period as surface flow remains rather stagnant.  No major weather
systems are expected through the next 5 days and not expecting any
headlines for small craft advisories to be issued during this time
frame. Otherwise, just looking at the potential for afternoon
thunderstorms today and Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the
area on Sunday. Fair weather returns for Monday through Tuesday and
a good portion of Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Garnet
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Garnet
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Lombardy


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