Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011923
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM
THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE LINE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT I ANTICIPATE THAT THE SOUTHERN
END WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN. HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION. I
ANTICIPATE THIS LINE WILL BISECT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND
01Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT
REACHES WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ACTUALLY...SPC PULLED BACK THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONSIDERABLY AND CONFINED IT TO
MICHIGAN.

MODELS SUGGEST A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BRIEF COOL DOWN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SHOWERS HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD TAKE
WITH IT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. THIS WILL IN TURN DRAG THE LEFTOVER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND FOR SURE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY AND WE COULD SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT THIS POINT SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WARMING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EARNEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 16C ON TUESDAY BACK TO AROUND 20C BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY.  WILL START TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SOME AREAS
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 70.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE ON TUESDAY.  IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THURSDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WEST END COULD BE STRONG THIS
EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCES.  THE FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.  S TO SW
FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







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