Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 282221
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
621 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS HAS NOW MOVED INTO NE AND EXPECT ALL OF
THE PRECIP TO BE GONE BY 00Z. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...SOME SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING...SOME COULD BE STRONG MAINLY EAST OF AKRON
THROUGH 7 PM. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND THEN INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS COULD LINGER EAST OF CLE ALL NIGHT
BECAUSE WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE OVER 10C...ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OH
AND NW PA. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AROUND
18C...SOME SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY OVER NW PA WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN LATE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY AND THEN
DECREASING SOME FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY EARLY. THE MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE ARE NOT AS COLD SO WILL MIX RAIN WITH SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WIND DIRECTION IS MORE NORTHEAST AND THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS NEAR 22C. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. SOME
CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE
EAST...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MINIMAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL SPEND ANOTHER DAY IN THE 40S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BUILD OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. INTRODUCED THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR
A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW AT EACH LOCATION WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VISBY IN MODERATE SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT CAK/YNG/ERI SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS. A FEW
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES. WINDS WILL LOSE THE
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NEAR 3000 FEET WILL FILL BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN THE SNOWBELT. WIDESPREAD
NON VFR RETURNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OHIO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF AVON AS WAVES ARE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW
AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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