Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 062013
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
413 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SLOWING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES NORTHERN OHIO ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN FROM EAST OF CANTON TOWARDS
ERIE PA. STORMS ARE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY AND SOME HAVE EVEN BEEN
TRAINING SO PORTIONS OF STARK AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS FOR RAIN BUT
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGEST STORM SO FAR
MAY HAVE HAD A LITTLE SMALL HAIL IN IT AND WITH 1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE COULD BRIEFLY GET STRONGER BUT SHOULD NOT BE VERY ORGANIZED.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA BEFORE
EXITING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS. LOWS WILL BE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S EAST TO NEAR 70 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO DURING THE MORNING ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING. EXPECTING
MID AND HIGH CLOUD TO PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THAT MAY HELP
TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FILL IN AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY.
HIGHS WILL APPROACH MID-80S IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT.

STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE BREAK IN
PRECIP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS SHOW NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DID RAISE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE PUSHES THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND RAISED
POPS IN THE FORECAST TO 50-60 PERCENT. IF TIMING HOLDS...THESE WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED FARTHER. HOPEFULLY THE WARM FRONT IS NOT DRAPED
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA FRI THRU MON WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF A WET PATTERN
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN EVERY DAY. THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL BE
QUITE WARM BY THE WEEKEND BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL PROBABLY
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOWS
AT NIGHT WILL NOT BE COOL EITHER AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS PROVIDE
A BUFFER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SMALL THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL EXIST INTO THIS EVENING FOR NE
OH AND NW PA BUT THE CHANCE IS SO SMALL THAT WILL ONLY USE VCSH
UNLESS SOMETHING IS IMMINENT AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. LAKE BREEZE AT
CLE AND ERI SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET WHEN WINDS
WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH. THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING BUT STILL COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS
OF MVFR BR/HZ NEAR DAYBREAK.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON TUE WILL BRING A BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD ARRIVE AT TOL AND FDY BY
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON THRU
SAT IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SW FOR TUE AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10
TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE
EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH WHILE ALSO DIMINISHING TO
MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE
THEN SHOULD DRIFT BACK AROUND THE LAKE THU THRU SAT WHILE WEAK WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES SO THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY RUN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS


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