Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151921
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
321 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS CREATED LAKE EFFECT AND DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY HANG ON OVER NE OH AND NW PA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE 850MB
THERMAL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z AND 850MB RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.  THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME
ESTABLISHING ITSELF DUE TO DRY AIR BUT RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW AREAS
OF ENHANCED SNOW OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF CLE.
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY IN BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION FROM THE LAKE EFFECT THIS EVENING BUT A QUICK INCH OR
TWO FROM PERSISTENT BANDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE AFTER 3AM AS THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. I WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ENDING ALL OF THE SNOW BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S FOR MOST AREAS. I WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MID TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.  A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START A REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY AND
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMALS ON THURSDAY.  THE GFS AND NAM SHOW AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER AND A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE
GFS.  I WILL WORK SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MORNING SHOWERS IN NW OHIO AND THEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NE OH AND
NW PA.  850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW -2C FRIDAY NIGHT.  WE MAY HAVE
TO WATCH PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL.  RIGHT NOW I WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A SHARP LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL OF SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY`S RIDGE
WILL ELEVATE POPS ACROSS THE TOLEDO METRO AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE LOW AS THE
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT. MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY LOOK LIKE
THE BETTER DAY FOR RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND DRAWS UP GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE LAST OF THE COLD WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BEHIND
US WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEARLY NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR VFR CIGS TO RETURN TO ALL
TERMINALS BY TOMORROW AND FOR THE WIND TO DECREASE AND SHIFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON.
WHILE KFDY AND KTOL HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO VFR CIGS...EASTERN
AIRPORTS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS
OFF THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MAINLY MVFR FROM TIME TO
TIME AT THESE SITES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF
THE MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKES AND ALL SITES WILL SEE VFR CIGS.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPIRE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE WIND ACROSS THE LAKE DIMINISHES IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH...THEN
GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR PASSAGE OVER LAKE ERIE EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS






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