Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 290709

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
308 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Low pressure will tend to remain near ohio through Sunday then
weaken and move off to the northeast Monday. High pressure shifts
east across the area Monday night and Tuesday then into the
northeast Wednesday.


The upper low that will affect the area thru the weekend digs into
its southernmost position in KY today. Bands of shra and some tsra
will continue to rotate around the low. From now thru noon...the
models generally indicate the main band of rain rotates to the ne to
mainly be affecting the ne half of the cwa for the afternoon.
However...differences in the models don`t make this a sure bet so
will keep the pops fairly broadbrushed versus just loading the hrrr
or rap progs. With convection somewhat limited...rainfall rates
should be kept in check so not expecting any flooding today.

High temps tricky due to questions of where midday rain will be most
likely occurring. Warmest airmass temps generally over the east but
this appears to be favored location for midday rain which would hold
down the temps. Widespread cloud cover will limit temp rise
everywhere with highs mostly ending up in a 64 to 69 degree range.


Little will change thru Sat as the upper and surface low stays in
the area then on Sun the lows will start to lift NNE to allow for
drier air to begin to spread into the area from the west later Sun
into Sun night. Won`t change the forecast a lot other than to
increase the pops and cloud cover some more.

The cumulative nature of the rainfall could begin to lead to some
flooding issues but not certain since heavier convection will be
limited. At some point...a flood watch could become necessary if a
band of moderate rain is shown to stay over the same area for a long
enough period of time. In general...tonight thru Sunday...expect to
see total rainfall range from a half an inch to maybe 2 inches with
the heavier amounts generally favored for the ne half of the cwa.

Temps should show little day to day change due to the homogeneous
nature of the airmass. Sunday will be the toughest day as cooler air
is shown to be wrapping in from the west but there may be more
sunshine to offset this difference.


The upper level low will attempt to pull away from the area on
Monday but there a trough will still be clipping the area. The warm
lake combined with the upper level troughing will be enough to keep
some low chance POP`s in the forecast across NW PA. By Monday night
high pressure will be ridging into the area which should be enough
to end any of the remaining showers. Dry conditions are then
expected Tuesday into Wednesday with warming temperatures. Highs by
Wednesday are expected to return to the middle lower to middle 70s.


.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Upper level low will continue to plague the area with periods of
rain and mvfr or lower ceilings. The only exception may be in the
vicinity of KERI where the downslope flow will be able to delay
the arrival of the MVFR ceilings. There have been a few breaks in
the cloud cover near KFDY with some fog developing. Will need to
monitor this area for the potential of brief dense fog.

Otherwise expect to see MVFR/IFR conditions for most locations
beyond mid morning as the next round of showers develops and
pivots across Northern OH and NW PA. Some of the rainfall will be
moderate to heavy at times, especially in a swath from near KCAK
to KCLE to KTOL. Winds will also be on the increase today.
Easterly winds will become gusty this afternoon with gusts 25 to
35 knots possible. The strongest of these gusts will be closer to
the lakeshore.

OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR through Sunday.


East to northeast winds will be on the increase today. The longer
fetch into the Islands and Western Basin will see the largest waves.
Even the lakeshore near Erie will see winds strong enough to reach
small craft criteria. So with that said we will hoist a Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) at 14z. Winds begin to decrease on Friday for the
east half of the lake so will allow the SCA to end at 14z. The
western half of the lake will take some time to settle down so will
keep the SCA into Friday evening.

Winds will be weaker over the weekend as the upper level low begins
to fill. Southeast to south winds are expected to return at some
point Saturday and then continue into early Sunday. However by
Sunday afternoon southwesterly winds should develop.

Waterspouts remain a slim possibility across the western basin today
but confidence is too low to mention at this point in time.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT
     Friday for LEZ142>146.


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