Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 080904
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
404 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS STILL LIMITED BUT SHOULD EXPAND THIS MORNING
AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SLIDES EAST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER WARM AND DEW POINTS ARE COMING
UP TO AROUND FREEZING. COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ALOFT AND TO THE
WEST THOUGH AND I THINK AS SOON AS THE WIND CAN SHIFT MORE TO A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN CHILL
ENOUGH TO GET SOME WET SNOW. ALSO...WITH ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT...THE COLUMN ALOFT COULD COOL WHEN THE UPWARD MOTION BECOMES
STRONG AND PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL AND THERE COULD WELL BE SOME VARIATION
BY ELEVATION AS WELL. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS... THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN RATHER VAGUE TODAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
FORECAST. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TO GET ANY SNOW TO
THE OH PA BORDER WHERE TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD TODAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SLUSHY COATING OF SNOW IF THE SNOW WERE TO
COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH BUT IT WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO STICK ON THE
ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL START OUT WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT
TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST. WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE NEAR CLE BY DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT
THIS POINT SO LITTLE OF WHAT IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ACTUALLY
HITTING THE GROUND. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT I
DOUBT LITTLE ELSE. ALL 3 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO WILL SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP NEAR FRONT.
PRECIP SHOULD START AS RAIN THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO SNOW. FRONT
WONT REACH EXTREME NE OH/NW PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...MULLEN


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