Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260225
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1025 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OHIO INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT AND
BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST COLDER FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL
HAVE AN EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE COLUMN ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTH BE COOLING. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN...EXPECTING WET SNOW TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
MOST 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK PRETTY GOOD
WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS NEAR 700MB...ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DEFOMATION. THE HIGHER
PRECIP RATES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
34-36 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
HEAVIEST SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.60 INCH SETTING UP FROM
ABOUT FINDLAY-CLEVELAND. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH LATE MARCH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES AM LEANING TOWARDS ONLY ABOUT AN INCH IN
THE NORTH AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THAT
SAID...WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR POSSIBLY
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ITS WAKE BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTHERN
OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON...MAYBE SLIGHTLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH ACROSS NW OHIO. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS MAY END UP SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY 4
INCHES...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COMPLETELY END
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING IN THE MORNING THEN SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 30S. HOWEVER IT MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
NE OHIO AND NW PA IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SUN INTO
SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY END THE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS SUN AND MON SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION SO THINK
THIS WILL BEING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME BY WED. ON
AVERAGE THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE AREA AND A
FRONT MOVING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WED. TEMPS ON WED MAY BE THE WARMEST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MAY START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU BREAKING UP EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GOING VFR IN MOST PLACES. WILL GO WITH CONTINUED VFR THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AROUND DAWN
OR SHORTLY AFTER AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WILL SEE RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z WITH VFR POSSIBLE MID LATE
AFTERNOON THERE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EAST. MON VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VARIABLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE
ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA THU MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO LINE UP OUT
OF THE W TO NW LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AT THE SPEED OF A TURTLE IN PEANUT
BUTTER WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY SE INTO LAKE ERIE ON SAT. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SW BY SUN AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE ROUGHLY EARLY SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
VEER THE WINDS TO W TO NW FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS





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