Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241123
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
723 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will deepen and track from the Tennessee valley
this morning into southwest Ohio overnight. The low will rotate
eastward across Ohio Thursday and depart the area Thursday
night. A ridge of high pressure will build eastward across the
area Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Only minor changes to hourly pops through 14Z with this update,
otherwise forecast remains on track and remains unchanged.

Original discussion...
Complicated forecast today into tonight as low pressure deepens from
the Tennessee valley this morning into southwest Ohio tonight, in
response to upper low digging southeast from IA this morning through
the mid Mississippi valley this evening. Focus of precip this
morning will be across northeast OH/NW PA expanding into far NW OH
by midday as trough rotates northward ahead of the approaching low.
Expecting precip to be fairly scattered and light for much of the
area during this time frame. Focus will shift to NW OH this
afternoon, as precip coverage expected to expand a bit with daytime
heating/marginal instability and approach of surface low. Went with
likely pops west, with chance/slight chance thunder mention
generally west of a Cleveland to Wooster line. After a brief period
of reduced precip coverage across much of northern Ohio late this
afternoon, expecting precip to re-expand as surface low moves
into SW OH. Left a period of high likely/low cat pops expanding
northward through the area between 23Z and 06Z. Confidence is on
the lower in with respect to exact timing and placement of
precip during this period. Models indicate focus of the precip
with be across NW OH and far NE OH/NW PA after 06Z, with a lull
in precip activity across the central part of the forecast area.


Temperatures are a bit tricky. Cut highs a few degrees for today,
with generally mid/upper 60s expected. Much of the higher res raw
model guidance and some MOS suggest low 60s may only be realized,
especially across NE OH, with a more easterly flow, precip during a
bulk of the heating hours and extensive cloud cover. However, will
play it conservative for this forecast issuance and keep highs near
a consensus blend of raw guidance and MOS. Kept overnight lows close
to previous forecast in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned low will begin to fill and translate eastward
out of Ohio and through PA on Thursday and Thursday night.
Generally chance pops forecasted Thursday and Thursday night
across the area, but have included a period of likely pops
across the eastern part of the area through the afternoon, with
a slight chance thunder mention. Some lingering pops Thursday
night into Friday across the eastern part of the area, however
mainly dry conditions expected to overspread the area from the
west as ridge builds across the region. Friday afternoon and
evening should be mainly dry across the area. Models continue to
indicate a potential MCV tracking eastward along the cyclonic
side of a quasi zonal subtropical jet stream from the Plains
through the region late Friday evening. Have maintained chance
pops during this period, but lower confidence in forecast with
subtle mesoscale features this far out. Temps will remain
seasonable during this period, with no major changes from
previous forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Looks like the period will be active and fairly wet.  The models are
having the usual timing and movement differences with the main
weather features.  But...it appears that another area of deepening
low pressure will move across the area over the weekend.  Best
chances for precip will be Saturday into Sunday.  The low will move
off to the north on Monday but showers will need to stay in the
forecast through at least Tuesday given the cool cyclonic flow
around this low.  Have not made many changes to the previous
forecast other than to lower temps a little each day given the
amount of clouds and precip expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Radar showing quite a few returns over NE OH and NW PA which is
more than previous thinking. It appears this activity will lift
north of the area this morning. Will go ahead and put some
tempos in for a few hours.  The main area of precip is still
expected to develop this afternoon and then spread across most
of the area by 00z Thu. Have also seen some pockets of MVFR
cigs this morning. These too should also go away for most of
the day before returning this evening. Some IFR cigs are
expected to develop tonight. Places like CLE may escape this
since the SE flow expected will be downsloping. E to SE flow
will continue most of the day. Speeds will increase late
today...especially in the east where some gusts in excess of 20
knots are possible. Have not included any thunder in the
forecast but that is something that will need to be watched.

OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR through Thursday in showers and
possible Thunderstorms and again for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Light easterly flow will gradually increase this afternoon and
evening.  Low pressure will move over western Ohio tonight causing
the flow at the west end of the lake to take on a northerly
component with east to southeast flow continuing on the east end of
the lake. Speeds will top out in the 15 to 20 knot range but will
have to watch water levels in the western basin to make sure we
don`t have coastal flooding.  Do not think we will need any small
craft headlines.  The low will eventually move off to the east on
Thursday with the flow becoming northwest and eventually west on
Friday. Speeds again should be mainly under 15 knots so not
anticipating any headlines.  Another deepening low will impact the
lake over the weekend with the flow returning to southerly on
Saturday and eventually westerly by the end of the weekend as the
low moves off to the northeast.  We may small craft headlines behind
this low. Active weather is expected during the periods with rounds
of thunder possible later today and again over the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina



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