Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241442
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
942 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CAN
STILL SEE A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT. ITS PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT.
THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TREND IN THE MODELS WITH A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR
AND THE OVER RUNNING SNOW FROM THE WAVE. TRIMMED BACK THE QPF/SNOW
AMOUNT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES JUST A BIT. AS IT STANDS...THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND ROUTE 30 AND SOUTH...WOULD NEED AN
ADVISORY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR A WINTER STORM AS WELL AS ADVISORIES FARTHER NORTH BUT
GIVEN THE MODEL TREND FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES OF WATCHES AT
THIS TIME.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER. GOT A
DECENT PEAK AT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEARED FOR A SHORT TIME. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
ICE COVER OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE LAKE. THERE ARE
SOME CRACKS AND THIN SPOTS THOUGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SMIDGE OF
LAKE ENHANCEMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED
TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PICK UP AGAIN.

GETTING COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR PRESSES SOUTH.
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. ONLY UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY EARLY IN THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WHERE/IF IT CLEARS WE
COULD DROP TOWARD/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  TRACK OF THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS
LAKE ERIE WHILE THE TRACK OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO.  WITH THE DOME OF COLD AIR ANCHORED OVER LAKE ERIE HAVE A HARD
TIME BELIEVING THE ECMWF TRACK.   AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST ON THE
TRACK OF THE GFS.  BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TEMPS OF THE GFS AND THE
TICKER CLOUD DEPTH...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY LIQUID OR FROZEN
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...JUST SNOW.  ALSO BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY.   TRACK HAS BEEN SIMILAR FOR AT LEAST 2 DAYS NOW...AND CAN
NOT THINK OF A REASON THIS SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE SNOW.   THAT SAID
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.  EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT ONLY MENTIONED IT AS "PROB30" IN THE KERI TAF
FORECAST. STEADIER IFR SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW
PA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN.  SO FOR NOW THINK
15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB






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