Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 222241
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
641 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Clear skies with a few cirrus clouds floating around will
prevail across the forecast area overnight. Some convection
taking place over extreme western Ohio and eastern Indiana will
gradually dissipate with the sunset and not expecting any of
this activity to move east over the next few hours.
Some light fog will develop after midnight across the western
portions of the forecast area. Expecting visibilities to be 3 to
5 miles with occasional 2 miles. Otherwise, no fog expected
eastern portions. Made some minor adjustments to hourly
temperatures overnight.

Previous Discussion...

No weather to contend with tonight...just a band of cirrus moving
across the forecast area., with skies clearing out overnight. Temps
tonight should be close to the low temps this morning.  Patchy
morning fog possible toward daybreak inland counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
No change in the short term forecast.   Upper level ridge will
remain anchored over the forecast area as the remnants of Jose
dumbbells off the Mid Atlantic Coast.   Dry conditions with well
above normal temps will continue through the weekend.

The highest heights are progged to be just east of the area by
Monday morning as the upper ridge drifts east. The circulation
around the upper ridge is progged to tap into a little of the high
level moisture from Maria and we may see patches of cirrus.
Temperatures could be a degree or two cooler but will still remain
near record highs for late September.

The cirrus may thin on Tuesday and dewpoints may peak in the mid to
upper 60s as the south flow increases ahead of the cold front. We
may start to see more cumulus but odds favor another "mostly
sunny" day. Kept forecast highs a couple of degrees above guidance
given the unseasonable air mass and the bias in the MOS guidance
this time of year. Tuesday could be the last true summer weather day
of the summer of 2017.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term begins Tuesday night with an upper low deepening as it
tracks east across Ontario into Quebec by Thursday  At the surface a
cold front associated with the system will reach the area Wednesday.
Thursday model differences begin to increase.  Both the GFS and
ECMWF have dry air across the area in the wake of the front however
the GFS develops an upper low over Manitoba while the ECMWF has an
upper ridge moving east across the Canadian Rockies and a deeper
trough lingering across the Great Lakes.  By Friday the GFS drops
the Manitoba closed low into the western lakes and upper Midwest
while the ECMWF continues to trough across Quebec into the lakes.
Both models however agree that post cold front, much cooler air will
be across the lakes which will favor lake effect clouds and showers
over the usual places so will pursue that theme.  Highs still summer-
like on Wednesday but that will be the last day.  HIghs Thursday
upper 60s to near 70 and low to mid 60s on Friday.  Best chance will
be with the cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night, and then in
the lake effect areas Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail through the night.
Expecting some MVFR fog to develop over Toledo, and Findlay and
perhaps at Mansfield. Otherwise, rest of the TAF sites should
remain VFR. Winds will light and variable becoming calm away
from the lake. Lake breeze will diminish after sunset at
Cleveland and then redevelop again tomorrow afternoon. Expecting
a lake breeze to develop at Erie late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered across Ontario and Quebec and
extended westward across the lower Great Lakes. Weatherwise, this
means more of the same. Lake/land breezes will be the stronger
gradient each day/night through the weekend. The high pressure
area will drift east early next week and the flow will come
around from the south but the gradient will likely be weak
enough that lake breezes may still occur Monday and possibly
Tuesday. The next cold front is due on Wednesday and the pattern
will become more fall-like the second half of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...DJB/Kosarik
LONG TERM...TK/Kosarik
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Kosarik



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