Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 060858
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
358 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will spread across the forecast area today as low pressure
tracks across SE Ohio. The low will track east of the area
overnight and dissipate. An arctic front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday ushering in the coldest conditions of the
season and kicking off lake effect snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Currently low pressure now into KY with height falls centered over
Southern Ohio.   This supports the models...which track the low
across SE Ohio later today.  The rain shield associated with the low
is just south of the Ohio River...but should not reach the southern
portion of the forecast area until mid morning. With the surge of
warm air ahead of low...am expecting all precip to fall in the form
of rain.  The 32 dew points are already into Dayton area and should
creep into SWRN portion of forecast area by time rain begins.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The low will track east of the forecast area this evening...then
dissipate.   Tomorrow will be quiet with a weak ridge of high
pressure extending across the upper Ohio Valley...the lull before
the storm.   Models continue to be in good agreement...with an
arctic front sweeping across the forecast area Thursday morning.
This will usher in the coldest conditions of the season and set up a
Lake effect snow event that will last into the weekend. Expect a
quick burst of snow with the front and the associated upper level
trough Thursday morning and then a lull before the lake effect
kicks in.

Potential for heavy snow by Thursday evening as the 850mb temps
dip to -12c...for a 19 degree differential with the lake. Worse
the 500 MB temps plunge to -36c...which is a 43 degree
differential...so there is the potential for thunder snow. In
addition plenty of moisture with clouds tops over 10k ft. The snow
will initially be confined to the northern snowbelt with a west
flow up through 700mb. But overnight the 850mb winds shift to the
NW which will force the snow inland...but the shear will prevent
any megabands from developing. With a NW flow could tap into Lake
Michigan moisture and dump a couple of inches across Lorain and
Medina counties Thursday night. Lake effect will continue into the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow will be ending at some point on Saturday as
southwesterly winds shift any remaining bands back up the lakeshore
into Western NY. There will then be a brief lull in precipitation
Saturday night. Models are struggling with the timing of the next
wave of low pressure that will impact the region Sunday into Monday.
Snow is expected at the onset of precipitation at some point Sunday
but it appears we will likely transition to rain. Confidence is low
timing this storm system across the region.

COld on Saturday with highs remaining in the 20s. Warmer Sunday into
Monday with highs back into the middle and upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The low clouds have finally left except at KERI will they will
come and go the next couple of hours. Forecast still on track with
precip arriving in the south after 12z. Some of the new guidance
is suggesting it could be cold enough for mixed precip at the
onset and KFDY and KMFD and have gone with a tempo there for that.
Will then time the precip northeast across the remainder of the
area with it likely not reaching KERI till 18z or later. Cigs
should dip to MVFR soon after the precip starts and to IFR a few
hours after onset. The precip should end from west to east late in
the day as a front crosses the area. Winds will flip to the W or
SW behind the front with cigs rebounding to MVFR. Till then light
E winds will continue then increase after daybreak. Some gusts to
20 knots could occur during the daylight hours.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR into Wednesday in rain/snow showers. Lake
Effect snow develops Thursday into Friday with non-VFR expected,
especially across NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds will gradually shift to the south this evening. Waves
may build to 2 to 3 feet or so across the western basin until winds
shift more to the southeast by mid afternoon. Current thinking is
we remain below small craft advisory levels. Winds become
southwesterly tonight and will increase. Looks like the eastern half
of the lake will need to monitored closely for small craft advisory
conditions. Winds may decrease slightly Wednesday night but as the
upper level trough passes on Thursday winds will increase from the
west and northwest. Small craft advisory conditions are a definite
Thursday afternoon into at least Friday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Mullen



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