Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 220504
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
104 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast will drift south through
Friday. This will allow a weak cold front to sag southward across
the central Great Lakes Friday night. A stronger cold front will
arrive Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Convection fizzled over the region this evening due to drier air
along with a 700mb cap. The debris clouds are already
dissipating. Attention will now turn to eastward progressing
convection along an outflow boundary from the MCS over Wisconsin
and along a lingering h850 boundary. The convection is expected
mainly towards daybreak around 08Z-13Z when a shortwave trough
moves by the region. The best probability for storms appears to be
over our northernmost counties in the morning. There is a fair
amount of uncertainty as to how far the boundary will sag and if
the capping will prohibit convection in our south overnight. As
for temperatures dew points will be warming on southerly flow so
favoring lows around 70.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued a heat advisory for Friday and Saturday. Concern is how
much convective debris remains across the area from overnight
storms. Also could see development on friday so again...any
convection/cloud cover would prevent heat index from reaching 100.
However am anticipating a good amount of sun and with 850mb temps
in the lower 20s we should get into the 90s. Dewpoints also in the
lower/mid 70s so many places should reach an index of 100. Friday
capes still above 2000 j/kg although most unstable air remains
well to the west. Still...will have chance pops in place as we
should see afternoon/evg storms develop. The cold front dropping
across the lake Friday evening now appears to be slowing into the
area and will pass through early Saturday. Am concerned about the
possibility for convection south half during the day along and
ahead of the front. Will have chance pops in place south. Sunday
the front returns from the west/southwest ahead of an approaching
cold front. The GFS develops convection across the top of the
upper ridge to our northwest so again it would be possible to see
some of this drop into the area so will have chance pops
continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Chance for some lingering showers across the sern portion of the
forecast area Monday morning as the weak front/trough moves east. A
little bit of a break in the heat after that...as another large area
of high pressure will moves East across the the Great Lakes.  The
high shifts east of the lake Tuesday and reaches the East coast
Wednesday.   After that models diverge...GFS moves low across the
Northern lakes Friday dragging a cold front across the area.  ECMWF
on the other hand moves it across the lower lakes.   Either way
chance pops by Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A weak cold front will drift sse into the area by tonight triggering
sct shra/tsra. Will hold tafs to just vcsh/vcts due to a less than
50% chc pop. Any patchy fog this morning will dissipate by 14z with
a sct to bkn field of cu developing with additional high clouds
above. Fog will develop tonight for most of the area with some spots
possibly seeing some ifr.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr from shra/tsra possible Sat into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Severe potential tonight as line of strong TSRA moving across SE
lower Michigan moves into Western basin of Lake Erie late this
afternoon. Potential for 50-60 kt gusts with stronger storms.  Still
doubts as to how far east the storms will hold together...but best
chances would be west of Mentor.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
     Ohz003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...DJB



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