Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 021410
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1010 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF SPRINKLE ISN`T
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT WITH BETTER UL
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NW. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND MAY
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING BACK TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM. FOR NOW...I THINK WE ARE SAFE
WITH JUST A CLOUDY SKY. MORE MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK UP INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS A LOW SKIRTS THE CWA.
NEARLY ALL THE MODELS KEEP THE RAIN TO OUR EAST THOUGH...SO
AGAIN...MOSTLY CLOUDY SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 50`S NEAREST TO THE LAKESHORE AND LOW
60`S FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT MODELS TAKE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
HOWEVER WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS TUESDAY HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BOOST TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST
HOWEVER WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EARLY. THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
OUT OF THE NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN. TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND TO GET THE LOCAL AREA BACK
INTO SPRING LIKE WEATHER. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES TO EXTEND A RIDGE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CUT BACK ON THE POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AND BRING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOW CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. SOME IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER WINDS TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY


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