Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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065
FXUS61 KCLE 260546
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will continue to weaken as a weak
cold front approaches from the north. The front will move back to
the north of the area on Thursday as high pressure tries to build
back into the area from the east into the weekend. This will keep
the front north of the area for the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mechanism for significant forcing lacking so still see only sct
coverage tonight as weak s/w works ne into the cwa late tonight.
Marginally unstable enough for some thunder but much of the
convection will probably just be shra. A few locations could see a
quarter of an inch of rainfall but most of the cwa that gets
rain will see a tenth of an inch or less.

Low temps will be a lot warmer than this morning as dewpoints
continue to rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than Memorial
Day weekend as a warm and humid airmass gets established over the
area. The weather will also be unsettled with precip chances just
about every period. Unfortunately the timing of the waves of
precip remains a challenge. Does not look like there is much
severe weather potential as there is no good forcing at the
surface. Expecting the cumulus fields to begin to develop late
morning with mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This
activity will be helped along by a series of weak impulses set to
move across the area aloft. Given the convective feedback in the
guidance confidence in precip chances and timing is below normal
today. One area where confidence is high is temps. 850 mb temps
will be between plus 16 to 18 most of the period. This should
translate to highs in the lower to middle 80s Thursday through
Saturday. If I had to pick a wet day right now...it would be
Saturday. Hopefully the forecast picture will become clearer as
the weekend approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level pattern continues to trend in the direction of warmth as
upper level ridge holds strong. Early in the forecast period, the
ridge begins to flatten a bit and flow across the northern tier
states becomes more Zonal.  This will keep a persistent Bermuda high
pressure system relatively stationary through the period. This high
will be responsible for pumping warm humid air into the forecast
area.  A dramatic change compared to a little over a week ago.

Early in the forecast period, some weak shots of positive vorticity
will rotate through the area and could support at least a chance for
showers and thunderstorms. So far, there will be an on and off again
chance for showers and thunderstorms due to the weak upper level
impulses.  However, will keep a mention of a slight chance of
precipitation mainly in the morning on Monday and we could salvage a
dry day depending on whether moisture vacates the area for a period.

Another upper level trough will lift north into the region Wednesday
and timing of this feature remains to be seen on whether it arrives
later in the evening or the day on Wednesday.

As mentioned, warm air advection will take place and this will cause
temperatures to remain in the 80s over much of the area through the
period. Lake breeze will keep lake shore areas a tad cooler as well.
Overnight lows warming up into the upper 50s and lower 60s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A trough of low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes is
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms across lower
Michigan and has initiated some pop-up showers across northern
Indiana/NW Ohio and another cluster in far NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania, which will impact KERI right at 2 AM. General
thinking is that the large area of convection will miss to the
north of all TAF sites and only the pop-up type showers have any
chance of impacting any TAF site. However, given the nature of
these pop-up showers, any confidence in timing and coverage is
low. Therefore, continued with a vicinity shower for all sites for
a brief period and removed any mention of thunder. Model guidance
is pointing to MVFR ceilings and visibilities around daybreak, but
they have all pointed to wet conditions overnight tonight. Given
that there is good chance that any particular TAF site will remain dry,
kept all of the TAFs VFR, but if any rain develops over a site,
will certainly need to monitor for any MVFR fog or stratus.
Southerly winds will continue through the period reaching 10
knots at times.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to remain quiet through Thursday. Winds will then
increase out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots Friday morning.
Light and variable winds will occur through much of the weekend with
a slight increase in wind around 10 knots for Monday. Otherwise,
not expecting any headlines through the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Lombardy



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