Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 222300
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES IN THE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AND COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION IT
LOOKS AS IF LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO
INLAND NW PA WHERE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THE THINNEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FRI NIGHT.
CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20`S/LOW 30`S WILL SUPPORT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET
AFTER SUNSET AND BOTTOM OUT TO NEAR 32 DEG IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE
GREATEST FREEZE THREAT WILL BE FOR NW PA AND EXTREME NE OH.

LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF LORAIN COUNTY...SOUTH TO MARION
COUNTY... AND EAST TO THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL WAKE UP TO AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. LOCATIONS CLOSEST
TO THE LAKE WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS...AND
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60`S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PRIMED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AND
DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60`S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US DRAWS GLFMX MOISTURE UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED OMEGA...THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY UNORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS MAY
LEND ITSELF TO LONGER LIVED PULSE STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80`S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN TEXAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...FLOW INTO OHIO WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GLFMX WITH
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE MILD TO WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS. CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE
DISSIPATING SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF IT WILL REACH THE EAST PART OF
THE AREA. PATCHES OF CIRRUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SAT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO THE DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY.  SUNDAY THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY.  WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
ERIE FROM WILLOWICK EAST TO RIPELY THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES REPORTED AROUND
4 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. WITH THE HIGH
TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT SATURDAY. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ014.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...TK






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