Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 201506
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1006 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Missouri will move across Lake Huron and into
eastern Canada by Wednesday pulling a trailing cold front east
across Ohio. High pressure will shift east across the lakes Thursday
then another cold front will drop into the area and stall Saturday
until a low moves along the front into New England by late Sunday
pulling the front off to the east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some wholesale changes being made with the forecast for today.
HRRR/RAP/NAM3km much more aggressive with precip across the
area today. Watching the trends over the past several hours,
confidence is increasing in these solutions as showers/iso
thunderstorms over Indiana expected to sustain and move
northeast across the area late this morning through this
afternoon. Have raised pops/QPF quite a bit, especially across
portions of NW OH that are now outside of the Flood Watch. This
precip should mostly lift north of the forecast area from the
21Z-00Z timeframe, with a period of dry conditions across the
area until the front moves closer to the area.

As a result of this precip, forecast temperatures become a bit
more uncertain from Findlay northeast through Erie PA. Have
generally kept highs the same as previous forecast, but
depending on how early the precip arrives and how long it sticks
around, heating will be fairly limited and highs may end up
several degrees lower than forecast. Conversely, areas outside
of the precip may exceed forecast highs given the amount of
insolation/thin cloud cover and trends in the early morning
temperatures. Another change to the forecast is to bump wind
gusts up a bit across the area. We are already seeing gusts to
35 mph this morning and mixing should sustain or increase into
the afternoon, so some gusts to 40 mph are expected.

Original discussion...
The area will be in the warm sector today with many areas having a
good chance to set a new record high. The NW part of the cwa will be
close enough to the front to continue with a good chc for shra or
possible tsra today into tonight.

The front and associated band of shra and tsra will push ESE across
the cwa later tonight and Wed with the threat for shra tapering off
NW to SE in the aftn. Temps will still be warm tonight for all but
the NW where some of the cooler air will start to arrive at the end
of the night. Wed will be a transitional day as temps likely slowly
fall throughout the day.

The threat for any widespread shra or possible tsra looks to just be
for Lucas county until late tonight so will drop flood watch for
other counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Colder air will continue to press southward Wednesday night. Another
wave is expected to ride along the front. Most of the models bring
measurable rain back across much of the forecast area with heavier
amounts across the southeast counties from Marion to Medina to
Meadville although there is considerable spread on the model QPF.
Precipitation type becomes a problem due to the shallow cold
air therefore Wednesday night into Thursday is a low confidence
forecast at this time. This mornings models are a little colder
aloft and I am not sure I believe them. There seems as though there
should be a warm layer aloft but given the trend and to be
coordinated will mention snow across the lakeshore counties and a
mixture of rain/snow/freezing rain farther south with plain rain
south of Route 30. Hate to mention freezing rain three days out but
it sure seems as though it is reasonable given the shallow cold air
and the trend in the models. It should warm up during the day
Thursday for a change back to plain rain although the precipitation
may just end or taper to drizzle by that time as it shifts east.

A parade of waves on the front will continue into the weekend.
Flood potential will remain the theme of our forecasts for the
week. What little break we get in the rain late Thursday into
Thursday night will be washed away as rain overspreads the area
again by Friday morning. Some colder air will filter in Thursday
night into Friday and will have a decent spread in forecast high
temperatures on Friday from around 60 in Knox COunty to the
mid/upper 40s in the Toledo area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty on temperatures Friday
night into Saturday. All of the models bring rain back on Saturday
although it may be heavier across the southern half of the forecast
area and the Ohio Valley.

The wave early Sunday looks to be the last as the ridge aloft will
get knocked down by a stronger shortwave allowing more seasonable
and drier air to begin to spread into the area behind the cold
front on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR should tend to dominate thru 06z tonight as the front stays off
to the NW. The exception will probably be TOL which may see sct shra
and possible tsra affecting the site almost anytime during the
period. Surface winds will continue to increase into midday today
and gusts in the afternoon will likely be in a 25 to 35 knot range.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wed morning will improve. More Non-VFR Fri and Sat
with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk South to southwest winds will continue today into tonight
ahead of a slow moving cold front. The front will cross Lake Erie
Wednesday morning and winds will shift to northwest and north. Wind
speeds should diminish relatively quickly within a few hours of
frontal passage. Winds will veer all the way to ENE as high pressure
slides across eastern Canada into the weekend. A cold front will
cross the lake on Sunday and winds will become southwest and a more
seasonable and drier air mass will spread across the lake early next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday, February 20th.
Here are record high temperatures for climate sites for that date:

Climate Site       Record High    Year
Cleveland (CLE)        69         1930
Akron-Canton (CAK)     67         2016
Youngstown (YNG)       65         2016 and 1939
Mansfield (MFD)        66         2016 and 1930
Toledo (TOL)           66         1930
Erie, PA (ERI)         66         2016 and 1930

Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are forecast to be close to
all time record highs for the month of February. Here are the all
time daily record high temperatures for the month:

Climate Site       Record High    Date
Cleveland (CLE)        77         2/24/2017
Akron-Canton (CAK)     76         2/24/2017
Youngstown (YNG)       75         2/24/2017
Mansfield (MFD)        74         2/24/2017
Toledo (TOL)           71         2/24/2017 (Tie with 4 dates)
Erie, PA (ERI)         77         2/24/2017

Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are also forecast to be
close to all time record highs for the meteorological winter season
(December - February). Here are the all time daily record high
temperatures for the winter season:

Climate Site       Record High    Date
Cleveland (CLE)        77         2/24/2017
Akron-Canton (CAK)     76         2/24/2017 and 12/3/1982
Youngstown (YNG)       76         12/3/1982
Mansfield (MFD)        74         2/24/2017
Toledo (TOL)           71         2/24/2017 (Tie with 6 dates)
Erie, PA (ERI)         77         2/24/2017

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OHZ003.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Kosarik
CLIMATE...Sefcovic



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