Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261748
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
148 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to the north of Lake superior will drift southward
today. As it does a strong cold front will cross the region. The
area of low pressure will continue to impact the weather across
northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as it wobbles its way
across the central Great Lakes into the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of showers remains generally along and east of Interstate 71
while starting to dry out in the west. Most locations in the east
have already reached the high for today with temperatures falling
as the rain arrives. Satellite imagery shows the clearing line moving
east across Indiana as the mid-level dry slot wraps in from the
west. This will start to move into the Toledo to Findlay corridor
by 3 pm with temperatures reaching their highs late in the day.

Previous discussion...
A strong cold front will move across the region through the day.
Showers have already moved across NW Ohio. There will be a brief
lull for this region this morning but as the front approaches the
showers are expected to expand in coverage. Have gone with
categorical POPS spreading from west to east through the day.
There is plenty of jet energy near the area but low level
instability will not be all that high. So the chances of thunder
will be limited. Will only mention a scattered thunderstorm chance
in the forecast with it mainly occurring along the frontal
boundary.

Cloud cover and showers will make for a cooler day than yesterday.
Highs will be warmest across the east with lower to maybe middle
70s possible. Elsewhere highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will
be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will clear the region through the evening hours taking
the showers and few thunderstorms with it. We will then see plenty
of cooler air flowing across Lake Erie with some lake effect
showers developing around Erie. As the surface and upper level sag
southward across the western Great Lakes winds will remain
southwest to west which will end up directing most of the lake
effect showers into western NY State. This should allow most
locations to have a dry day on Tuesday. However this all changes
by Wednesday as the cooler pool of air associated with the upper
low arrives. This should help to produce scattered showers for
Wednesday through Thursday night. Lake Erie will likely begin to
enhance the showers on Thursday as a north to northeast wind
develops. Plenty of instability over the lake so we may need to
monitor for some locally heavy rainfall. More on this through the
week as we await better agreement between the models with the
placement of the area of upper level low pressure.

It will be cooler than average through the short term period with
highs on the 60s. Any breaks in the cloud cover overnight will
allow for some chilly temperatures with lows potentially dipping
into the middle and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Trend of the extended the same with the large upper low drifting
across the Upper Ohio Valley/lower great lakes. However...models
still differ on the exact track and timing of the low. GFS has
low centered over NRN Va by Friday morning...with the low drifting
NE into upstate NY by daybreak Sunday. The ECMWF on the other hand
has the low centered over Cincinnati Friday morning...with the low
tracking into Central Michigan by daybreak Sunday. For now will go
with the superblend pops and go with scattered showers Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Conditions already improving from the west this afternoon with VFR
conditions at TOL and soon to be at FDY. Showers making good
progress east and will be east of the TAFs by late afternoon.
Clearing will make it all of the way across the terminals for this
evening. A few clouds to develop off of the lake may brush ERI at
times overnight/Tuesday morning. Gusts in the clearing this
afternoon to 25 knots. Southwest gusts develop on
Tuesday...gusting to 30 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible for all terminals at times between
Wednesday and Saturday with upper low and showers lingering
across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory in effect for the entire lake. Cold front
now into NW Indiana...and is expected to move east of Eri by early
afternoon. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots by late
morning...then West at 15 to 25 knots by mid afternoon. The 850MB
temps drop to 5c by Tuesday morning as the strong cold air behind
the front moves over the lake. Expect the small craft to continue
in the east until Wednesday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...DJB


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