Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
709 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

A weak cold front will drop south of the area today. The front
will move back north as a warm front on Thursday. A cold front from
the northern plains will drop across the Great Lakes on Friday. A
trough aloft will linger over the eastern Great Lakes from the
weekend through early next week.


The weak cold front seems to be from about Erie to Cleveland to
Bowling Green at 7 AM. Still a couple of showers in the
vicinity. Made minor adjustments to the pop this morning
otherwise no changes for the early morning update.

Original "Today" discussion...
The initial outflow from the showers and the prefrontal trough
early last night is south of the area. The weak cold front is
lingering across the lower Great Lakes as there is still another
wind shift to come and dew points remain in the mid and upper
50s. Patches of mid clouds and stratocumulus continue to develop
early this morning in the jet aloft across lower MI and Lake
Erie. It will take until mid/late morning to get the weak front
south of Route 30 and it may struggle to get much farther south
than that. Cannot rule out a shower across northeast Ohio and
northwest PA, mainly this morning, with the frontal passage.
Eventually, subsidence should dominate and skies will become
clear/mostly clear, first along the lakeshore, then clearing
will spread inland this afternoon.

Pretty tight gradient on max temps yesterday with low/mid 70s behind
the weak front and 80s ahead of it. Will probably see high
temperatures today range from the near 70 at the Lake Erie lakeshore
and the hills of NW PA to the lower 80s south of Route 30.


The weak front will move back north as a warm front later tonight
and Thursday. At the same time, the next short wave will interact
with the low level jet and thunderstorms will develop over the
upper midwest. Some of these showers and thunderstorms could clip
the area as early as the pre dawn hours on Thursday and into the day
Thursday. I suspect that most of this activity will be gone by noon
and not much confidence on how much new activity may develop
Thursday afternoon. Will leave a low pop chance across most of the
area. The heat and humidity will surge back on Thursday with highs
across most of the area in the 80s, tickling 90 from Findlay to
Tiffin to Cleveland.

Tropical moisture associated with Cindy may not make it to the
forecast area on Friday but there would seem a good chance for
showers and storms to develop as a cold front sags across the lower
Great Lakes. Temperatures should be suppressed to some extent
by the clouds and shower threat. Forecast highs will be a degree
or two above guidance, mostly near 80/lower 80s although it
could certainly be warmer if the front is slower and there is
more sunshine.

The front should be south of the area by Saturday. The trough aloft
is progged to be rather flat with a short wave north of the area. We
could get through the day rainfree. Temperatures should be back
down in the 70s to around 80.


A broad upper level trough will deepen over the region late Sunday
into Monday. Moisture will be a limiting factor for chances of
showers and thunderstorms along the front but expect to see at least
a few storms develop, most likely in northeast Ohio where low level
convergence is a little better. The effects of the cold front will
be greatest across the eastern half of the area where temperatures
will range from the upper 60s to near 70 by Monday.

A trough will linger across the eastern Great Lakes through the
first part of next week while high pressure builds into the Ohio
Valley. Will hold onto a low chance pop, mainly in the north on
Monday as another trough swings through. Chances of showers are
limited to just an isolated mention in NE Ohio by Tuesday as a
ridge expands northeast into the area.


.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Scattered showers will continue to move northeast along a cold
front through 10Z with the best chances of impacting MFD/CAK in
the south and ERI with a few showers developing over the lake.
Conditions are VFR and any restriction to MVFR in showers will
be brief. An area of clouds near 5K feet has been developing
over southern lower MI and will shift southeast across the area
through late tonight. Locations to the south will be closer to
the stalled frontal boundary and will see more cloud cover and
possibly a stray shower towards midday. likelihood of these
showers is too low to include in the forecast but can not be
ruled out at MFD/CAK between 16-19Z. Otherwise winds will be
less than 10 knots all sites.

OUTLOOK...Low chance of non-VFR Thur thru Sun in shra/tsra
except good chance Fri into Fri night with passage of a cold


High pressure will move across Lake Erie today with light winds,
generally 10 knots or less. The high will shift to the east coast by
Thursday with winds developing out of the south. Southwest winds
will increase to 15 to 20 knots Thursday night into Friday morning
ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Waves may
develop a little bit of a chop on the open waters but the offshore
flow should prevent the need for a Small Craft Advisory.

A cold front will move through on Friday with winds shifting to the
northwest at 10 to 15 knots on Saturday. A series of troughs will
move across the lake during the early part of next week maintaining
a westerly wind component on the lake.




NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
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