Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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164
FXUS61 KCLE 251701
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
100 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will slowly push south across the area
today. The cold front will become nearly stationary south of the
local area tonight and then begin to lift northeast as a warm
front Sunday. Low pressure will move slowly from St. Louis
toward the northeast to Lake Huron by Monday morning and to near
Maine by Tuesday. A trailing cold front will move southeast
across the area by Tuesday morning. A high pressure ridge will
build southeast across the Great Lakes region during the latter
half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sharp gradient in temperatures already in place this morning
with inland areas near 60 degrees and areas along the immediate
lakeshore closer to 40 with a northeast wind. This spread will
only increase through the day as areas from Marion to Canton
try to sneak into the low 70s again. So far this morning, band
of steady showers has been focused along the north shore of Lake
Erie. Best chances for showers today remains near the Toledo
area as moisture streams around the ridge and along the
northeast lakeshore as the front sinks south this afternoon. Did
allow for some partly sunny skies across the south today as
satellite imagery shows some breaks developing.

Previous Discussion...

A pesky backdoor cold front will meander around the lakeshore this
morning in response to outflow boundaries pushing the colder air
south. A couple waves of low pressure will move east over Lake Erie
today and once the secondary wave pushes east this afternoon, we
should see the cold front push south during the day. Now, here is
the big fly in the ointment for today`s forecast.  There is a huge
difference in the models as far as POPs go.  The GFS says 98 percent
while the Canadian and NAM both are less than 10 percent.  So far,
the GFS does not appear to be handling the current precipitation
north of the area very well while the other two models seem to be
doing well with it. So, will lean in the direction of the NAM and
Canadian models for precipitation today. Cut way back on POPs for
today since moisture will be limited with the cold front sagging
south. Due to the mild air in place, can`t rule out a thunderstorm
with the frontal boundary.  Some convection developed over the north
shore of Lake Erie along the front over the last several hours.
Temperatures are going to be a bit of a mess today as well.  So far
we have seen the cold front meander back and forth over the
Cleveland Hopkins airport causing temperatures to drop into the 50s
and then climb back into the 60s.  Further south away from the lake
should see the milder temperatures in the 60s for highs until the
cold front pushes south. Big concern is will it reach the 70s before
frontal passage.  Will try to time the high temperatures with
location of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Large nearly cutoff low pressure system moving ever so slowly east
across the middle Mississippi Valley region at this time will play a
role in the weather conditions we see tonight. Had to cut back on
POPs again for tonight and hold off precipitation threat until
Sunday and mainly in the west due to the slow timing of the low
pressure system. Eventually, showers move east across the area
Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, another upper level positive
vorticity maximum and associated moisture push east into the area
Monday night into Tuesday. The precipitation then exits stage right
as we head into Tuesday night under the influence of the ridge of
high pressure.

Temperatures through period remain on the mild side as warm air
advection begins to take place as cold front stalls south of the
area and becomes a warm front again Sunday.  As large low slowly
moves northeast, we will see the forecast area remaining in the warm
sector during this forecast period.  Looking at temperatures in the
60s for highs and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term begins Wednesday with high pressure building south
across the lakes into the area. The GFS and ECMWF show reasonably
dry air across the region so will continue with a dry forecast and
partly cloudy skies. The high will move east across Canada Wednesday
night and Thursday.  This will allow low pressure to move across the
central Plains to Illinois by friday 12Z. Deep moisture will move
into the Ohio valley ahead of the low on Thursday and will continue
through Friday.  Will bring chance pops into the area Thursday in
the afternoon. High chance to likely look good Thursday night
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
The cold front over the area will drift a little father south into
this evening then stall and lift back north into Lake Erie by Sun
afternoon. There should be a mix of MVFR and some IFR for locations
closer to Lake Erie with mix of VFR/MVFR further inland that will
tend to prevail most of the time until 18z. There will be a chance
for shra or isolated TSRA for mostly the north with TOL being he
most likely site to be affected.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR much of the time late Sunday into Tue
then again by Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Stationary front just north of Lake erie will drop south across the
lake early today.  Winds will increase out of the northeast during
the afternoon likely reaching 15 to 20 knots.  This will last into
the night before veering southeast and decreasing towards morning
Sunday. Will issue a small craft advisory which will begin at 4pm
today and last until 10am Sunday.  Winds will likely improve before
10am Sunday but waves may take a bit longer to diminish.  The front
will likely move north across the lake again on Sunday as weakening
low pressure moves from the Central Plains to Lake Michigan. The low
will move northeast into Canada Monday. Monday night and early
Tuesday another low will follow, this one moving northeast across
Lake Erie.  A trailing cold front will follow.  Wednesday high
pressure will build in from the northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ143>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...KEC/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...TK



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