Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181243
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley today. A warm
front will lift north across the area on Monday and unseasonably
warm weather will prevail through Tuesday. A cold front will
drop across the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clearing has slowed and now it appears from the latest
satellite imagery that the clearing will have to occur primarily
from erosion. The cloud layer is thin and there is still hope
for some clearing before the thicker high clouds arrive during
the afternoon. Made a few hourly temperature updates this
morning (generally a degree or two warmer) based on the latest
trends. No other changes for the early morning update.

Original NEAR TERM Discussion...
A little low level convergence lingered across northeast Ohio early
this morning as the last of the short wave pulls out. Will allow a
few more flurries there and the snowbelt for the next few hours.
Clearing will make progress from the west but high clouds will
increase this afternoon. Winds will come around from the south
today and with some sunshine, temperatures will recover to
normal or slightly above normal, generally upper 30s and lower
40s.

Heights are forecast to rise steadily early this week with strong
warm advection. As the low level jet increases, and the southern
branch of the jet lifts north across the Ohio Valley, frontogenesis
will increase. It will take much of Monday to get the warm front
north of the area. Showers will develop toward daybreak and coverage
and intensity should increase Monday morning. The model soundings
show some elevated cape, but it is limited and higher up in the
sounding, and will not mention thunder at this time. Rainfall
amounts appear to be light to moderate for Monday. The area of
precip will shift north, likely not focused in any one spot for
too long.

Temperatures will drift upward later tonight and warm through
the 50s on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Active pattern expected during the period, with near record temps
possible on Tuesday. Area will be fully entrenched in the warm
sector Monday night as a warm front continues to push north of the
area, and a slow moving cold front settles just west of the forecast
area. Models are starting to align with their solutions, which has
trended towards an overall drier pattern over the local area MOnday
night through Tuesday night with a slower moving cold front. Much of
the area will likely be dry Tuesday into Tuesday night, however
with keep some slight chance to low chance pops across the eastern
2/3rds of the forecast area. The front is expected to work east
across the area on Wednesday departing the area Wednesday night.
Will continue with cat pops across the entire area Wednesday. The
heaviest rainfall is expected to be along the cold front Monday
night through Tuesday night, and as of now should fall just west of
the forecast area. Lesser rainfall amounts are expected Wednesday as
the front accelerates through the local area. As far as
temperatures go, kept Tuesday`s highs fairly similar to previous
forecast, which may be conservative compared to the potential if
conditions are dry and a we get some decent sunshine. Near record
highs expected in the upper 60s to low 70s, but the forecast remains
a few degrees cooler than some of the MOS. There is some potential
for mid 70s, especially along and east of the I-71 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary pushing south of the forecast area will become
stationary late Thursday as high pressure builds east across the
Great Lakes. This is expected to keep conditions fairly dry Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night across the area, with some lingering
rain showers possible early Thursday across southeast portions of
the area. A wet period is expected Friday through Saturday as low
pressure develops and tracks northeast. Temperatures will likely be
above normal during this period, with highs back into the 50s Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The snow and IFR conditions will shift east of the area early
this morning as the weak front moves east. Several hours of
MVFR ceilings will follow, then clearing will move east across
the area this morning and a return to VFR conditions. High
clouds will arrive this afternoon/evening. Winds will back to
the south as the day goes on.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible at times Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow today will become more southerly tonight, generally
increasing to around 15 kts overnight. Winds will increase to 15-20
kts out of the southwest on Monday as a warm front lifts north
across the lake and low pressure approaches from the west. This will
continue until Wednesday before a cold front pushes east across the
lake and winds become northwesterly 10 kts or less. Winds will
remain light through the remainder of the week as high pressure
moves across the lake, mainly out of the north Wednesday night
slowly veering easterly by Friday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Greenawalt


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