Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 060434
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1134 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently centered over Ohio will slide off to the
east tonight. Low pressure moving across southeastern Ohio Tuesday
will bring rain to the area from Tuesday morning into Tuesday
evening. Dry conditions Wednesday will give way to much colder
temperatures and lake-effect snow by the end of the week into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Skies have cleared more than expected so low temps may be a little
colder than thought so have adjusted for this. Clouds should
eventually start to return from the sw later in the night and temps
will probably start to rise a little. Still looks like precip should
hold off until after daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low will move northeastward across southeastern Ohio
during the day Tuesday with an attendant upper-level short wave
lifting across the Great Lakes. This will bring a large swath of
precipitation in from the south, arriving in Marion during the
early-mid morning, Cleveland and Toledo near midday or so, and
eventually to Erie by mid-afternoon. The latest models continue to
slow down the initial onset of precipitation, so by the time it
arrives, it should all be in the form of rain. A strong warm nose
aloft should prevent any snow from mixing in. The rain will stick
around much of the day, exiting all but far northeast Ohio by the
late-evening/early overnight hours. General precipitation amounts
of 0.2 to 0.4 inch are expected, with a little less across
northwestern Ohio.

Dry weather is expected for Wednesday ahead of the next storm.
Colder air begins to filter in Wednesday night as an upper-level
low moves across Ontario. Lows Wednesday night are expected to be
in the mid-20s with high temperatures Thursday struggling to get
out of the upper 20s in most locations. While there is a chance
for a few snow showers across the entire area Thursday with a
moist west to northwest flow and broad large scale lift, the main
focus will be on the Snow Belt. Lake-effect snow will begin to
develop Thursday as westerly winds combine with 850mb temps
falling to -10 to -12C by Thursday evening and a relatively warm
lake of 5 to 8C. Winds become more northwesterly Thursday night
and lake-effect snow will continue into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term begins on Friday with models in good general agreement
showing the upper trough moving east through Quebec and a cold moist
northwest low level flow across the Great Lakes into Ohio. At the
surface, high pressure will extend from the Northern Plains to the
Gulf Coast further supporting the WNW flow across the lakes. At
850mb models have temps -10 to -12c across the lake.  Expect lake
effect snow will be ongoing Friday morning and would expect this to
persist through the day.  By Friday evening the surface high builds
into the lower Ohio Valley as the upper trough moves further east
leaving more of a zonal flow across the region. Some question as to
if the high will begin choking off the lake effect snow but for now
850mb temps still -12 to -14c so will continue with likely pops
Friday night. Areas not downstream from the lake however will begin
to dry out. Saturday the high moves east of the region, winds begin
backing and warm advection begins. Lake effect still possible in the
morning but for the afternoon expect winds will back to southwest
and take any remaining snow showers off shore. Moisture will return
from the south...mainly Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure
moves into the western lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The low clouds have finally left except at KERI will they will
come and go the next couple of hours. Forecast still on track with
precip arriving in the south after 12z. Some of the new guidance
is suggesting it could be cold enough for mixed precip at the
onset and KFDY and KMFD and have gone with a tempo there for that.
Will then time the precip northeast across the remainder of the
area with it likely not reaching KERI till 18z or later. Cigs
should dip to MVFR soon after the precip starts and to IFR a few
hours after onset. The precip should end from west to east late in
the day as a front crosses the area. Winds will flip to the W or
SW behind the front with cigs rebounding to MVFR. Till then light
E winds will continue then increase after daybreak. Some gusts to
20 knots could occur during the daylight hours.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR into Wednesday in rain/snow showers. Lake
Effect snow develops Thursday into Friday with non-VFR expected,
especially across NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Will allow small craft advisory to end as expected. Winds have
been dropping through the afternoon and should remain below
criteria. Tuesday the high over the Ohio valley will move east as
low pressure moves across the northern Plains to the western
lakes. Winds will back from south to east by Tuesday morning and
persist through the day. A weak cold front will cross the lake
west to east Tuesday evening turning winds west to southwest
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Thursday deep low pressure will
move across Quebec as high pressure fills the nations midsection.
Winds will increase from the west and northwest Thursday to near
30 knots by evening. This will persist through Thursday night
before dropping back into the 20s on Friday. Winds will taper to
about 15 knots Friday night backing to southwest Saturday as high
pressure moves through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mottice
NEAR TERM...Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...TK



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