Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 271820
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
220 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE LOCATED OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.
ORIGINAL...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE LIFT NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THERE SHOULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER
WIND AS THEY CROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY
ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HAIL. WILL
MENTION THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY UNDER VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THUNDER MOVING EASTWARD WITH IT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN TAKE CONTROL FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
NW OHIO FRIDAY EVENING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DRIFT INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE MAIN PUSH OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME
SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
80. COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING.
FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHS RETURN TO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 80S. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TREND CONTINUES FOR SATURDAYS COLD FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN...BUT STILL LEFT
SOME AS THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT GETS. AT
ANY RATE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. FAIR WEATHER AND HIGH
PRESSURE BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER. OVERALL
THOUGH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE GUSTY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS VEERING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
THEN LIGHT NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR
FOG THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LAKE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. COULD SEE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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