Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH SUNSET THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE TO UNDER 2000J/KG.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THOSE ADVECTING IN ARE NOT
GROWING AS STRONG AS THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
VORT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MI IS
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME STRONG STORMS. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE ENTERING NORTHERN OHIO
FROM THE THE NW...YET STORMS ARE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH
CAPES DIMINISHING AND NO REAL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...NOT EXPECTING
ANYMORE SEVERE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SLOWLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S WITH SOME
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS AROUND 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS
UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LABOR DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. I BELIEVE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES ARE WITHIN REASON FOR MANY INLAND AREAS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH FEATURE IS CONSISTENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WOULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN THIS COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z
TUESDAY AND STALLS IT OVER LAKE ERIE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLD
FRONT ALMOST 12-18 HOURS LATER AT THE EARLIEST AND HAS IT MORE
ALIGNED WITH A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE
AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR EACH SOLUTION. THE OVERALL TREND WOULD BE TO TREND
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT COLD FRONT IS WEAK AND
WILL NOT DRASTICALLY DROP TEMPERATURES. THUS...TRENDED TEMPERATURES
DOWN USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE LESS THAN 2 FEET
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC



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