Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 212331
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND PULL A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A STRATUS DECK REMAINS ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA WHILE SKIES HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED TO THE WEST. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS TO
SLOWLY BREAK UP TONIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. HOPING
THAT THE DOWNSLOPING HELPS CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE DEGREE OF CLEARING. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE AS THE
CLOUDS CLEAR BUT WILL BE PRETTY THIN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. KEPT LOWS
FOR TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN THE EAST WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON FOR PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. IF SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY THEN LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED ADJUSTED DOWN. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. ALLOWED CLOUD WORDING IN THE WEST GO PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH THE THIN HIGHER CLOUDS ADVANCING OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG JET DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES AND STARTING TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH THAT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. UNSURE HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH. REGARDLESS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT AND JET ENERGY ARRIVES.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TIMING AS THE TROUGH COULD DEEPEN
MORE THAN MODELS ANTICIPATE AND SLOW DOWN OR KEEP PRECIPITATION A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MODELS DID COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING THE 00Z RUNS
TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION AS THE STRONG JET MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NW IS SAMPLED BETTER. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WE COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURGE OF MOISTURE TRACKS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS NOW BOTH TRACK A WELL DEFINED LOW
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO ON WEDNESDAY WHICH UNDERGOES CONSIDERABLE
DEEPENING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
WET WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA AND MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON CHRISTMAS EVE. AT THIS
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY REMAINING RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED
WITH 850 TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING TO AROUND MINUS 8 SHOULD LIMIT
ANY INFLUENCE OF LAKE ERIE. SO THIS MAY MEAN THAT MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL NOT SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE AN INCH OR SO COULD OCCUR.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER
BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S. THERE WONT BE ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE FOR
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT BUT HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM THIS POINT ON THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER BOTH INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF KTOL BUT REMAIN FROM JUST WEST OF
KCLE...EAST TO KERI KYNG AND KCAK. THIS PATCH WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. FIRST TO BREAK SHOULD BE KCLE AND BROUGHT CLEARING IN
BETWEEN 01 AND 02Z. TRIED FOR 04Z KCAK...06Z KYNG...AND 08Z KERI.
WITH CLEARING SHOULD COME SOME FOG...MAINLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BUT CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND
LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON LAKE ERIE AND REMAIN THAT WAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LAKESHORE
OF NW PA FOR SOME STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE THE AREA
WILL AWAIT THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN  BETTER
AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING THIS STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME STRONG WINDS AS THEY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
THE THREAT OF GALES STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE BUT WANT TO SEE A COUPLE
MORE RUNS BEFORE GOING WITH A GALE WATCH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN






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