Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 141108
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
608 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the central Great Lakes will move east today
and allow a weak trough of low pressure to move through the lower
Ohio valley. Another area of high pressure will build east into
the region tonight and Sunday and then move off the east coast by
Monday. Low pressure will move northeast into the western Great
Lakes Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A weak trough will move east across the Lower Ohio Valley today.
Most of the precip will remain to our south with a ridge of high
pressure remaining across the lakes. Radar however shows very
light freezing rain moving into the southern counties of the area.
Obs suggest this light freezing rain is falling out of about 7Kft
and only trace amounts of precip are falling. Still, with this
freezing rain potential have issued a freezing rain advisory for
the far southern tier of counties from Marion to Holmes. Following
the HRRR this current patch of ZR will not expand much and there
will be another few hours rain free. After 16z however the HRRR
brings a much larger swath of rain into the area so there could be
another shot of ZR late morning. Current guidance suggests temps
will still be below freezing through about 18z so will end the
advisory then. Otherwise expect cloudy skies with highs 32 to 35.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight into Sunday another area of high pressure will move east
across the region. Monday the high moves off the New Jersey shore
as low pressure moves northeast through the central plains. A warm
front will extend east into the lower Ohio valley from the low
setting up a period of overrunning precip beginning Monday. While
the GFS is a bit more moist vs the NAM am, it too holds of precip
until after daybreak on Monday. Will bring a slight chance pop
into the far southwest 12-15z and then boost to chance pops west
15z-18z with slight chance elsewhere except northeast. For
afternoon will have chance ops most places. If precip is a bit
faster there could be a period of freezing rain again but current
timing suggests temps will have a chance to rise above freezing
before most precip moves in. The warm front will move north of the
area Tuesday, followed quickly by a cold front. Have likely pops
for rain Monday night through Tuesday night. Temps near normal
Sunday and well above Monday and Tuesday.



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper trough should be shifting east of the lakes later wed
into wed night to bring a threat for rain then snow to an end west
to east thru wed night. Guidance temps still look too warm so will
lower a few degrees.

The models differ more and more thu thru fri but in general upper
ridging tries to develop over the region but weak s/w`s are shown to
be moving thru to try and keep the ridge somewhat flattened. Will
side with the superblend and keep small chc pops thu night and fri
while temps run well above normal thus keeping the precip type as
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A few sprinkles of fzra or flurries will try and push north into
FDY...MFD and CAK thru this afternoon. Dry air at lower levels
should evaporate the precip before it makes it down to the surface
so will continue to just mention vcsh at these sites. Cigs at these
site probably will lower to around 5k ft then improve into early
tonight as another push of high pressure builds in from the nw.
Light e to ne winds will back to w to nw.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
An inverted trough moving up the oh valley will cause a ne wind of 5
to 15 knots to shift to wnw later today into tonight. High pressure
will shift east across the lower lakes and to the mid atlantic coast
monday making winds veer around to the east for sun night into
monday.

An approaching low will lead to an increasing south wind later mon
into tue which may reach 15 to 25 knots tue night until a cold front
passes to shift winds to wsw late tue night and wed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams



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