Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 252340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AND BRING
SOUTH FLOW AND WARMER AIR BACK TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDS THIS EVENING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT POSITIONED DOWN THE LENGTH OF
THE LAKE AND BACK INTO NORTHWEST OHIO...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AND A DEWPOINT DROP. FOR THE
EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND IN THE CASE OF FAR NE OH/NW PA
CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING. SOME CLOUDS MAY RE- DEVELOP OFF THE LAKE
ACROSS NW PA AS COLD AIR SLOWLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THIS COOL
AIRMASS ONLY GIVES US A GLANCING PASS. WINDS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET...WILL STAY UP AS GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WHICH GENERALLY GIVE LOWER 40S DESPITE THE
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH BEGINNING TO BUILD IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...BUT OVERALL A FAIR DAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUN
FOR MOST. WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST
SNOWBELT AS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE STICKS AROUND WITH FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE.

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK TURN AROUND AND MONDAY
WITH THE HIGH OFF TO OUR EAST AND A WARM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE DRY SO ONLY SOME PASSING CLOUDS MONDAY.
MILD MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THIS WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS CLOSER THIS RUN WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR TUESDAY...BASICALLY GETTING IT TO OUR EASTERN BORDER BY
EVENING. WITH THAT HAVE RAISED POPS ON TUESDAY. STILL MAY BE ABLE
TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SO HAVE LEFT THAT IN THE FORECAST.

SHOWERS PULL OUT TUESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT DRY. WITH LOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AREA LEFT IN THE DRY SLOT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE COLDEST AIR STAYING TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL
GET DRAWN BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES QUITE ACTIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND BECOMES AN OMEGA BLOCK. DEEP NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES LOW DEVELOPS IN TANDEM WITH DEEP WEST COAST LOW. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR TRICK OR TREATERS.

OVERALL...WEDNESDAY WILL TREND TOWARD MILD CONDITIONS AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CYCLONIC NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SENDING A COLD POOL OF AIR SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE AIR MASS
SLIDES INTO THE REGION AND SHIFTS EAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY
AND BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST.

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND EVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TO SEE WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW FOR THE
SEASON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST SNOW BELT.

AS COLD POOL DIVES SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING COLDER
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION KEEPING SKIES MAINLY SKC.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS
THEN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST TWO THIRDS THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY ON THE EAST HALF. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WINDS TO
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS
WELL. WINDS DO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. WINDS DO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...LOMBARDY






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.