Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
CIRRUS AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SNOW DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. THE
GFS IS FAST...WENT A LITTLE SLOWER. NONE THE LESS DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 11 PM SATURDAY/04Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB






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