Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250027 AAC
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
727 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE COUNTIES WEST OF A CUYAHOGA TO SUMMIT
COUNTY LINE AS LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING
INTO LAKE...GEAUGA AND PORTAGE COUNTIES IN OHIO.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN OHIO
AS OF 20Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE LOW OCCLUDES
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTIVE LINE
THAT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...MAINLY SOUTH OF DAYTON AT
THIS TIME. CAN THIS LINE DEVELOP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS WHERE MID 50 DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE. SO FAR THE STRONGEST GUST AT ANY REPORTING SITES WAS 45
KNOTS IN LEXINGTON KY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS STRONGER
CONVECTION WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST A MANSFIELD TO MEADVILLE LINE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE EAST. WE HAVE MODIFIED THE
AREA OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING SINCE THE LOW IS NOT AS DEEP AS
EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS. WE NOW ARE PLACING THE STRONGEST WINDS
CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY WITH WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO GUST IN THE 45
TO 50 MPH RANGE. THERE IS CONCERN THAT SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS INLAND ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO INLAND NW PA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

BLUSTERY AND TURNING COLDER OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
NIGHT TO GET THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW. BELIEVE THIS
WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND TOWARD
SUNRISE ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
NW PA CHRISTMAS MORNING. IT MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF ALL SNOW
BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY IT WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET THE
RAINFALL INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT
WILL REACH NW OHIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE STILL A LITTLE UNSETTLED...BUT I WILL
CONTINUE MOST OF THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH A TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS. COLDER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

ON LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE MODELS BRING A LOW UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TRENDING
TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TURNING A BIT COLDER
LATER NEXT WEEK AS WINTER REALLY RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW MOVES ALONG THE OHIO AND INDIANA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....LOOK FOR MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...FOR SOME OF THE TAFS...I MENTIONED VCTS
FOR KMFD...KCAK AND KYNG AT THIS TIME.

SOME STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A DRY SLOT
WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN A NARROW BAND OF
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
LIKELY IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW TOWARDS MORNING. THE
VISIBILITY MAY DROP LOWER THEN 3SM FOR A BRIEF TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY. NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ERIE. LOW PRESSURE
NEAR TOLEDO WILL UNDERGO RAPID STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. THE FAR EAST END OF
THE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 45 KNOT GALES
AND COULD BRIEFLY SEE LOCALIZED STORM FORCE WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE GALE WARNING AND MONITOR
CONDITIONS AS THEY UNFOLD THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS WILL GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT.

THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AT NOON AND
EAST END OF THE LAKE AT 4 PM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
REPLACE IT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE AS WAVES TAKE LONGER TO
SUBSIDE.

A RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-006-013-014-
     017-018-021>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ007>011-019-
     020.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB/MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KEC






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