Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270736
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
336 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will push across the area today
reinforcing the unseasonably cool air across the forecast area.
Low pressure will track across the Northern Lakes Thursday dragging
another front across the area.  The front will stall and linger near
the area into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Strong cold front over NW OH will move across the forecast area this
morning for a reinforcing shot of cold air.  Expect most of the
convection over the lake to move east of the area by daybreak with
the front.   However the 850mb temps plunge to 4c behind the front
so do expect some lake effect showers to develop later today.  High
pressure builds over the area tonight chocking off the chance
of precip and allowing temps to dip into the lower 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Wednesday night thru Friday night)/...
Wednesday night low pressure moves into the western lakes lifting a
warm front northeast across the region.  Initially the best moisture
and instability will be well west of the region.  Overnight
moisture increases however the axis of best instability remains to
our west and northwest. Its possible that convection will be getting
close to the area towards morning Thursday however so will have
chance pops after midnight across the far northern and western
counties. Thursday the axis of best instability lays over east/west
across the area associated with a weak front. Flow will continue out
of the glfmx region into the area.  Will continue with likely pops
across much of the area lasting through Friday. highs close to
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday drier air will begin moving in from the west behind a cold
front. Will still have chance pops everywhere however through the
day. Saturday night will have only a small chance pop east.  Sunday
and Sunday night dry. Monday both the GFS and ECMWF show an small
upper system developing to our west and moving across the area
through the afternoon and the overnight. So for Monday will have
chance pops with best chance west.  Temps again near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Front now into Western basin of Lake Erie will move across the
forecast area tonight taking the convection over the lake with
it. Secondary trough across SE Lower Michigan will move across
the area today.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible again Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front is now into the Western Basin and will move across the
Lake this morning. West winds of 10 to 20 knots will turn to the
Northwest behind the front.   The 850MB temps plunge to 4c with a
lake temp near 21c definite potential for water spouts again this
morning.  Winds will gradually diminish below small craft advisory
criteria this evening.

Thursday winds will increase from the southwest to 15 to 25 knots as
low pressure moves through the central lakes. Friday look for winds
from the southwest 10 to 15 knots as the gradient relaxes. Winds
will remain 10 to 15 knots or so from the southwest through
Saturday. Expect decent chances for thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB/TK



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