Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280534
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK
EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE LEFT THE AREA AND EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. A LOT OF DENSE FOG WAS REPORTED JUST TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DRY AND DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A
BIG PROBLEM HERE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S MOST AREAS BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE THEM DOWN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA BUT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WX ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE DAY. LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SHOWS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE MIDWEST. WILL HAVE INCREASING/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THEN
THE NAM IN BRINGING THE UPPER TROF AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM WITH FOR MOST AREAS SHOWS LOWER
(CHANCE) POPS BOTH PERIODS VS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST.
THE ECMWF AGREES...KEEPING A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 70S FRIDAY
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE MON THRU THU.
THE MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AT MOST...AND PROBABLY MOSTLY ON MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT THAT BECOME MAINLY ONSHORE FOR FRI AFTERNOON
AND MAYBE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY SE. A DISSIPATING
LOW MOVING NEAR THE LAKE ON SUN SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
SOUTH FLOW FOR A WHILE EARLY SUN. MORE LIGHT WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EAST THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS



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