Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020755
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE FOG THIS MORNING. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
IS INCREASING AND THE DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL OFTEN TERMINATE THE FOG
FORMATION BUT WHERE IT HAS DECOUPLED THE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY/MID MORNING. WILL MENTION "PATCHY/AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY"
IN THE FORECAST.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS CREPT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN INDIANA AND WILL
FUEL THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING.
SOME OF THE MODELS BRING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR EAST AS TOLEDO AND
EVEN PORT CLINTON BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST AND IT IS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOMENTUM OR INSTABILITY
TO GET THE ACTIVITY THIS FAR EAST. WE WILL SEE SOME DEBRIS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS NW OHIO THIS MORNING. SOME THINNING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL REACH NE OH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WAS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS SW OHIO YESTERDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR NW AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. LOWER/MID 70S FOR
NE OH/NW PA EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 60S IN THE HILLS OF NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING THE ONSET OF THE SHOWERS IS TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY REACH NW OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OUTRUN THE
FRONT BUT THE WEAKENING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS NW
OHIO ...PERHAPS AS FAR AS NE OHIO DURING FRIDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL
FRONT WILL BE SLOWER AND WE WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DECENT SHEAR SO IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT IF WE
GET ENOUGH DCAPE THERE WOULD BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR DOWNBURSTS. WILL
MENTION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS FRIDAY ARE TRICKY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM SO THE TEMP AT
ANY SPOT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA WHERE IT MAY NOT RAIN UNTIL LATER.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS
DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW. I SUSPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE A STEADY RAIN. MUCH COOLER
WITH NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL HEAD
DOWN INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S BUT WILL NOT FORECAST LOWS AS COLD AS
THEY COULD BE GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS AND A
BREEZE.

THE MODELS QUICKLY BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY SUNDAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTHWEST WHICH
MAY KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT IN WESTERN NEW YORK. A
FEW SUNNY BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELT BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY AS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO WAFFLE AROUND CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND REFLECTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. 1000 TO 700 MB MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ROTATES SWATHS OF 70
PLUS PERCENT INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGHS.
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TO FOCUS THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. EVENTUALLY...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION.  HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
TOO STRONG AND COULD POSSIBLY MODIFY TO THE POINT THAT AIR MASS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE DIFFERENCE THAN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING A SWATH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND RETURN BACK TO MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AS A DRY SLOT
TRIES TO FORM THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF PRECIPITATION
HEADED OUR WAY AFTER 06Z IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 06Z AS WELL FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR
LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS LAKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPERATURES. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ON FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REALLY INCREASE. WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME SORT OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY NEED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UP FOR SOME TIME. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVEN THOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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