Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 210428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1228 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley
through the weekend. A cold front will cross the local area
Monday into Tuesday.


Have lowered temperatures even further across central and
eastern portions of the CWA. Wooster is already down to 43
degrees and most other locations are running a good 5 degrees
cooler than they were at this time last night. We will likely
see the typically colder areas, such as Wooster, drop down into
the middle 30s, so some patchy frost will be possible. Western
areas should stay a bit warmer tonight as dewpoints are higher
and there will be at least a little bit of wind.

Original discussion...
High pressure remains in control over the region through
Saturday night, with dry conditions and mainly clear skies. Some
cloud cover will be on the increase, mainly cirrus, ahead of a
cold front that will move into the area by the end of the
weekend. Bumped temperatures down tonight a degree or two,
closely in line with MET MOS. Not many changes to highs
Saturday, with mid to upper 70s expected, and perhaps a bit more
high cloud cover.


Cold front will be moving across the western lakes on Sunday
and will likely take its time to reach northern Ohio. Current
model trends keep the region dry into at least Sunday evening
with a few showers attempting to reach NW Ohio by sunrise on
Monday. The better chances of rain will be Monday afternoon
into Tuesday as a wave of low pressure moves northward along the
front. This wave should be able to tap into some Gulf of Mexico
moisture so some heavier rainfall may occur.

IT will remain warm on Sunday with highs well into the 70s. SLightly
cooler on Monday with thicker cloud cover and showers with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. In the wake of the front on Tuesday
highs should remain in the 50s.


All of the models continue to drop a deep trough and upper low
across the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.
The models have been responding inconsistently, some trying to phase
the system with the existing trough/low. This would result in a
deeper surface low tracking somewhere across the central or eastern
Great Lakes. Not sure if this will happen and if it does, the
deepening low may be well north of the area. The flow in the
boundary layer may be southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday
and the lake enhanced precipitation may be primarily into NY
state night. Will forecast a chance of showers over the entire
forecast area with the trough. Will have likely pops in the
snowbelt as the wind may shift onshore on Wednesday.

Temperatures will be cooler with highs on Wednesday probably not
much higher than the lower 50s and lows Wednesday night mostly in the

The trough is progged to pull out on Thursday with strong warm
advection. Will remove any lingering showers except for a slight
chance along the east lakeshore and eastern Lake Erie. Highs in the
50s, probably pushing 60 across northwest Ohio.

Eventually there will be a chance of showers as the next
front/trough approaches but there is little agreement on the timing
yet. Chances are it will be next weekend and Friday will stay dry.


.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
High pressure and a dry stable airmass will continue to affect
the region through Saturday night. May see some patchy morning
fog but chances not high enough at this point to put in TAFS.
Winds will be light and from the south to southeast. Brought a
brief lake into KERI after 19z but guidance and HRRR keeps it
out of KCLE so will leave out for now.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in shra Sunday night through Tuesday.


High pressure centered over WV will shift eastward overnight then
move off the New England coast on Saturday. This will allow for an
increasing southerly wind. However winds speeds should not exceed 15
knots. These southerly winds will continue into Sunday then shift to
the west as a cold front crosses the lake Monday night into early
Tuesday. A small craft advisory may be needed at some point Tuesday
then continuing into Wednesday.




NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Mottice
LONG TERM...Kosarik
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