Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181521
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1021 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP SHALLOW INVERSION NEAR 860 MB WHICH IS TOO
LOW TO PERMIT MUCH DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SO FOR TODAY WE MAY
GET A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES AND THE WESTERN SYSTEM
MAY SPREAD A LITTLE SNOW OR VIRGA ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR US 30
LATE IN THE DAY JUST BEFORE SUNSET.

WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM
CLE TO ERI WITH NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






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