Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 270049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
849 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

An upper level trough will linger over the eastern Great Lakes
into late Tuesday. High pressure at the surface will finally
reach the area on Tuesday night before shifting to the East
Coast on Wednesday. A strong area of low pressure will move
across the northern Great Lakes Thursday into Friday.


Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through
sunset as an upper level trough approaches. We will then monitor
the development of convection over Lake Erie after midnight.
Current thinking is that it will blossom over the lake and drift
into NE OH and NW PA. For now we just went with scattered
thunderstorms. Otherwise we only made minor changes to the cloud
cover and temperatures to reflect current trends.

Previous Discussion...
Unsettled weather will continue a while longer as the latest in
series of short wave troughs cross the area. This feature is
showing up in the form of some light precip returns from
southern Lake Michigan eastward to NW OH. Expect this precip to
expand in coverage as the wave approaches this evening. Will
continue with a scattered precip mention all areas through the
evening hours. Coverage should be greatest downwind of Lake
Erie. Given the cool temperatures in the mid levels of the
atmosphere thunder is likely and small hail possible this
evening. Overnight things will begin to dry out from southwest
to northwest as high pressure over the lower Ohio Valley inches
toward the area. Troughiness will continue over the eastern end
of the area tomorrow morning so will likely continue to see
scattered showers downwind of the lake. Areas away from the
precip will likely see an increase in clouds late tonight as the
main trough axis moves over the area. The clouds will break up
in the west and south during the day with dry weather all areas
by 00Z Wednesday. High pressure will dominate Tuesday night with
mainly clear skies.

Temps will remain cool during the period with highs again
struggling to reach 70 degrees for highs on Tuesday. Have used
a blend of guidance temps.


Wednesday will be a good recovery day with the high shifting
east and southerly flow bringing back the warmer temperatures.
Weak ridge aloft/surface high will keep the area dry and mostly
sunny. A warm front will lift north Wednesday night and this
will bring in the higher dewpoints. The low will reach the
eastern lakes by late Thursday night, but the frontal zone will
hang up just north of the area. Models keep warm sector active
with mid level impulse for Thursday. Have maintained the likely
precip chances. Did not make changes for Thursday night, precip
chances will depend on the position of that front.


The brief period of zonal flow will be ending Fri into at as the
next upper trough digs into the Upper Plains Fri and shifts east
across the Great lakes Sat thru Sun. The models then start to
diverge by Mon so the forecast is more uncertain by then.

The improving dynamics with the approaching trough will lead to a
good chc for shra/tsra Fri into Sat that will shift into mainly a
small chc for the east by Sun. Enough moisture appears to hang back
for Mon with another possible upper s/w approaching so will keep
slight chc pops going.

Temps should run fairly close to normal during the period.


.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move
across the region ahead of an upper level trough. The trough
should move across the area overnight. Expect to see the
convection over inland locations to decrease in coverage
through sunset. We will then see how much can redevelop over
Lake Erie and can drift across NE OH and NW PA through the
overnight hours. Best chance of any thunder hitting a TAF site
will be at KERI after 06z. MVFR ceiling and visibilities will be
possible with the heaviest thunderstorms. May also see a brief
period of MVFR ceilings drift over the western TAF sites with
the surface trough/weak cold front. Winds will decouple across
inland locations after sunset. Closer to the lakeshore winds
will remain southwesterly at 10 to maybe 15 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible again Thursday into Friday in


Winds not coming down quick enough so will extend the SCA and
rip current headlines until later tonight. Winds should be
somewhat less tomorrow so do not think we will need to reissue.
Have added a mention of waterspouts for about the east half of
the area for tomorrow morning. This seems reasonable with the
upper trough still overhead and temps aloft as cold if not
colder than they were this morning.

Lighter and more variable flow Wednesday with high pressure
overhead. East half of the lake will shift onshore in the
afternoon. But overnight Wednesday night and through Thursday,
winds will shift to the southwest behind a warm frontal passage
and increase to 10 to 20 knots.

SW winds of mostly 10 to 15 knots should dominate Fri and Sat
turning more west to NW for Sun and Mon from the passage of a weak
cold front.


OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ011-012-
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146>149.


NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
MARINE...Adams/Kubina/Oudeman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.