Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131108
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
608 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple more clipper storm systems will impact the region
through the remainder of the week. One arriving this afternoon
into tonight and another on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Bands of lake effect snow remain on the move across Ohio so no
significant accumulations expected. Will continue to monitor
the band moving across Lorain County into Cuyahoga county for
the morning commute. Even the higher terrain of Lake and Geauga
County are a minor concern. Worst case a quick inch or two would
be possible.

Otherwise we will continue to monitor the eastward movement of
the next clipper storm system that will move into NW Ohio this
afternoon then spread eastward. The evening commute will be
slow for a large portion of the area.

Previous Discussion...
Have already cancelled the lake effect snow headlines across NE
Ohio. Still will see some snow showers across NE Ohio but any
additional accumulations will only be an inch or two. However
had to leave the lake effect snow headlines going across NW PA
with a narrow significant band originating off of Lake Huron
impacting portions of Erie county into Western NY. Believe most
locations will only see an inch or two but cant completely rule
out up to 7 inches before it tapers off by early afternoon.
Adjustments will need to be made to these headlines across NW PA
with the next clipper arriving tonight.

This next clipper will begin to impact the region this
afternoon and continue into tonight. This storm seems to be
rather potent with a decent amount of moisture to lift. It
appears that all of the County Warning Area (CWA) will see snow.
Current model trends keep the heavier snow near and north of a
line from Bowling Green to Canton. This area has the potential
of seeing 4 to 6 inches of snow. There is a possibility that
some heavier bands of snow may develop near and north of the low
as it tracks across NE OH. If these bands develop a warning may
be needed.

Some lake effect snow will once again develop in the wake of
the clipper at some point early Thursday morning. Additional
accumulations will occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Will have a break from the snow Thursday night as high pressure
builds into the Ohio Valley. The high slides east and moves off
the East Coast Friday, allowing another clipper system to track
a. across Northern lake Huron with the trailing front sagging
across the northern portion of the forecast area. Models not in
good agreement on how far south the boundary sags and on
snowfall. But with west flow behind the front and 850mb temps of
-12 best bet for light snow accumulations will be across the
snowbelt.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Boundary lifts north Saturday night taking snow with it and
ushering in warmer conditions for Sunday. Temps on Sunday will
be seasonal. Some locations could see 40 degrees if we get some
sun. Models differ on timing of next system. The ECMWF brings it
in Sunday morning while GFS holds off until the afternoon. For
now leaning toward the slower...and warmer GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Lake effect snow continues to slowly decrease. Only concern
for TAF sites will be in the vicinity of KERI through the
morning and around KCLE through 13Z. MVFR/IFR conditions will
occur near the bands of lake effect snow.

Ceilings will lower through the morning across the west with
MVFR conditions anticipated by afternoon. This area of snow will
spread eastward through the afternoon and become locally heavy
by mid afternoon and continue into the evening. All locations
will become IFR with low visibilities in snow. The snow looks
like it will begin to decrease in coverage across NW OH around
04Z then slowly progress eastward through sunrise Thursday
morning. Lake effect snow will be possible from KCLE to KERI
into Thursday afternoon.

Winds will decrease through the morning with any lingering gusts
to 25 knots only occurring around KERI. Winds will shift to the
southwest early then to the south through the afternoon. Winds
will snap around to the north as low pressure passes across
northern Ohio tonight.

OUTLOOK...Snow and MVFR conditions expected across the snow belt
Thursday morning. Snow and MVFR conditions possible Friday and
Friday night as a cold front moves into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Dropped Gale Warning as the winds have diminished to 30 knots. Small
craft advisory in effect until 3 PM.  The NW winds to 30 knots will
back to the SW and diminish to 10 to 15 knots by late afternoon.
However choppy conditions on the lake tonight as Winds will turn to
the N at 10 to 20 knots overnight as a low pressure system tracks
across NRN OH. Winds will gradually diminish Thursday as high
pressure nudges into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight
     EST tonight for OHZ003-006>009-018-019.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until midnight EST tonight for PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB



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