Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 251757
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
157 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will continue to be sandwiched between two areas of
low pressure, one to the west and one to the east, today
through Wednesday. Low pressure will eventually track into the
Great Lakes Thursday bringing a cold front through the area.
High pressure will then build in across the region briefly
Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...Light rain drying up quickly now and satellite shows
thinning clouds from the south so forecast on track. Have made
adjustment to sky grids to reflect increasing sun. Also adjusted
pop grids down to slight chance early northeast OH and
northwest PA but shouldn`t be much.

Original Discussion...
A low over the Carolinas will continue to move up the eastern
seaboard today. This has brought widespread clouds to eastern
parts of the area, with more scattered clouds farther west.
There is not much moisture to work with, but we have seen a few
light showers/sprinkles move into northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania this morning. Expect a continued chance of light
showers/sprinkles from near Cleveland eastward through the
morning hours. Any chance of precipitation will quickly come to
an end by early this afternoon as the low continues its
northeastward trek.

Temperatures this afternoon should be similar to yesterday in
most areas, though it will be a little warmer along coastal
areas. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 50s. A
very warm April day is in store for Wednesday with many
locations likely reaching the lower 80s for highs - generally
15 to 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue through Wednesday night, with low
temperatures closer to the normal daytime high for this time of
year (lower to middle 60s). A low across the Upper Great
Lakes/Southern Ontario Thursday will force a cold front through
the area Thursday afternoon. This will trigger showers and
thunderstorms progressing from west to east across Ohio during
the early to mid afternoon and eventually reaching northwest
Pennsylvania by the late afternoon/evening hours.

A strong shear profile will be present Thursday
morning/afternoon along with marginal instability. Therefore,
there is at least a chance of a stronger storm or two. One of
the main limiting factors will be moisture as the low occludes.
High pressure builds back into the area Thursday night in the
wake of the cold front. High temperatures Friday still look to
be above normal with just a slight chance of a shower during the
afternoon hours as the next low approaches from the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in decent agreement with the storm system that will
impact the region Saturday through Monday. Still have concerns that
the models are ejecting this low faster than what will really occur.
If it is slower the lift near the warm front may end up causing a
longer period of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into early
Sunday. At some point the region looks as if it will be in the warm
sector. This will likely be on Sunday but as stated above the timing
is still in question. The cold front may be cross the region Monday
morning with showers/thunderstorms along it.

Temperatures Saturday into Sunday will all hinge on the location of
the warm front. In any event all locations should see highs above
seasonal averages. Uncertainly remains for highs on Monday since we
do not trust the timing of the front moving across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Drier air moved into the region clearing out this morning`s rain
as it lifted north. Some mid level clouds are lingering in the
east but should lift out this afternoon. As for a lake breeze
believe ERI will be impacted but CLE should remain just south of
the wind shift. VFR conditions expected to continue into the
overnight. Prevailing southeast flow will continue tonight. As
winds go light towards dawn areas that received rain could see
some MVFR conditions notably ERI/YNG.


OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday
and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to decrease on Lake Erie as low pressure moves off
the middle Atlantic Coast. This has allowed waves to subside to 2 to
3 feet at most locations. The easterly flow may pick back up again
this afternoon but it appears it will be too short lived to warrant
keeping the small craft advisory going. So we will allow the small
craft advisory to come down.

Winds will shift more to the the southeast by Wednesday evening as
low pressure moves to near Lake Michigan. Winds will become southwest
to west as the cold front crosses the region on Thursday with small
craft conditions anticipated late Thursday morning through the
afternoon. High pressure will briefly build onto the lake Thursday
night into early Friday brining light winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mottice
NEAR TERM...TK/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Jamison
MARINE...Mullen


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.