Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 161444
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
944 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
Low pressure from the southern Plains will track to the Great Lakes
by Tuesday and Quebec by Wednesday. A warm front will lift north
across the area today and early tonight. The associated cold front
will move across the area on Tuesday. High pressure will build in
from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday. The high will shift east
on Thursday. Low pressure is expected to track across the midwest
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast in good shape today. The only change with the morning
update was to lower highs and hourly temperatures by a couple
degrees across much of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.
Despite temperatures warming aloft, surface winds expected to
remain out of the east with thickening cloud cover. Hourly LAV and
RAP temperatures indicate warming will be slow today which is
typical in this pattern. The concern for light freezing rain in NW
PA continues for this evening but precip expected to be spotty
until at least midnight, with temperatures warming overnight.
Will monitor trends through today on timing of warm front and
Original "Today" discussion...
The models are trending a bit slower with the onset of
precipitation and there is not much reaching the ground anywhere
nearby. That being said, cannot rule out some light rain/sprinkles
developing across northwest Ohio by mid/late morning. Plenty of
warm air aloft. Temperatures at the surface will be slow to rise
in the Toledo area with the remnants of arctic air, a light east
wind, clouds and virga. The forecast will bring a slight chance in
this morning with temperatures at or below freezing but given the
uncertainty on the arrival of precip and whether there will be any
measurable precip will not issue any advisories at this time and
will continue to monitor. Elsewhere clouds will thicken up and a
sprinkle or light shower may develop this afternoon. Forecast
highs near the cooler guidance with mid 30s around Toledo and
upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will continue to rise tonight with the exception of
perhaps losing a few degrees at sunset. Rain will overspread the
area. Temperatures may be near freezing in eastern Erie and Crawford
counties PA and depending on the timing of the onset of the rain,
cannot rule out localized freezing rain.
Some elevated cape develops overnight into Tuesday morning and
the low level jet is progged to increase nicely but given the fact
that the system is occluding with modest upward motion and limited
cape will not include thunder at this point. QPF should remain
roughly a half an inch or so which should not present any
significant flood risk. If any heavier convective showers or
thunder were to develop then we would have to watch basin rainfall
Not much cold air behind the system especially for January. Rather
than a change to snow we may just see drizzle or sprinkle as the
trough aloft passes overhead Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Not sure if there will be much clearing on Wednesday. Subsidence
increases and there would seem to be drier air in the lower layers
from the west but am always suspicious this time of year under the
inversion. Will allow for some clearing across northwest Ohio.
Temperatures still above normal with highs in the upper 30s and
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term pattern looks warm and wet, with broad eastern CONUS
ridging and several embedded systems lifting northward into the
region in a return flow regime. Highs generally in the upper 40s to
mid 50s expected Thursday through at least Monday, with lows
generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Right now, have chance pops in for Friday with slight chance Friday
night. Models are in decent agreement with the low lifting into the
region, but some subtle differences preclude anything more than
chance pops at this time. Maintaining dry forecast Saturday/Saturday
night given lower confidence and a lack of strong forcing, but bring
back high chance pops Sunday through Monday as an upper low deepens
from the southern Plains and slowly moves through the Ohio valley.
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Deteriorating conditions expected this TAF period at terminals as
a warm front lift north through the region. Ceilings will lower to
MVFR late this morning through the afternoon from SW to NE, then
eventually to IFR at most terminals as rain showers move through
the region. Winds will generally be east/southeast and less than
10 knots through the period.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday and Tuesday night in ra. May mix with
or change to a little snow Wednesday morning.
Light and variable winds expected across Lake Erie today as high
pressure continues to drift eastward. Low pressure will approach the
region tonight with east winds increasing 5 to 15 knots and veering
south/southwest Tuesday/Tuesday night. Flow will remain generally
southwest 5 to 15 knots Wednesday through Thursday as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the region. Light and variable winds are
expected Thursday night into Friday with the ridge overhead.