Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300535
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
135 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE STUCK
WITH SCATTERED WORDING FROM KCLE EAST. SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING
WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OHIO SO HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC
THERE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER EXTREME NE OH AND NW PA ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE WEATHER MAKER FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CAROLINAS FOR
SATURDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THE MODELS ARE FLIP
FLOPPING EVERY MODEL RUN. THE GFS/SREF IS THE WARMEST AND SAYS
MAINLY RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM IS THE COOLEST. THE CANADIAN MODEL
IS IN BETWEEN ON HOW QUICKLY IT COOLS TO GET TO SNOW. USED A
COMPROMISE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FROM MICHIGAN TO THE CAROLINAS WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ESPECIALLY FOR NE OH AND NW PA. WENT WITH A
MIX EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NW OH AND THEN ALL SNOW LATE AND A MIX
OVER NE OH AND NW PA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY JUST SNOW ON
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE MANSFIELD AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

WILL MENTION SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVING. SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF OF LAKE
ERIE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY ON MONDAY WITH A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP
TOWARDS NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD END BY 10Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM KCLE TO KCAK UNTIL MID MORNING.
ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF AVON POINT
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY THEN TO
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY AND MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC/OUDEMAN






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