Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231005
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
605 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the area today. A weak cold front
will move southeast across the region monday then high pressure
rebuilds over ohio for tuesday into thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
The weak cold front moving thru the area early this morning will
provide little in the way of relief from the heat and humidity.
There could be an isolated shra/tsra in the south this afternoon as
a weak upper trough is just east of the area which could support
some convection.

The big issue today is the heat index that will be rising to around
or slightly above 100 for the west 3/5ths of the cwa. A heat
advisory continues for this area thru tomorrow for the marginal
situation. Highs today should run from the upper 80s in the far east
to the lower to locally mid 90s for the central and western counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The heat and humidity will continue thru sun then some moderating of
temps back closer to normal will occur starting mon. Highs by mon
should just be in the 80s.

The short term drought affecting most of the cwa will get a little
worse as most of the area will not see significant rainfall from the
next front affecting the area late sun into mon. Luckily, the
pattern does show some change toward the latter part of next week
that should bring a better chance for rain.

There appears enough instability and shear for some strong storms
with the system late sun into mon morning with an isolated
severe storm also possible but mainly for the nw part of the cwa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THe long term forecast begins on Tuesday on the back side of an
upper level trough. Strong AVA behind this trough will create zonal
flow aloft through Thursday and support high pressure at the surface
over the Great Lakes. Like much of this summer, temperatures will be
on the rise with this stable air mass and above average temperatures
should be expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Given long term models`
trend in forecast towards climatology, forecast only reflects mid to
upper 80s at this time, but if models continue to keep high pressure
in place can see 90s being adding in the near future.

For Thursday and beyond, the long term models differ just a bit.
Both models show high pressure moving out as a low moves to the
south of the CWA. The GFS has a weaker but faster low that reaches
southern Ohio early Thursday morning with another disturbance moving
through the Great Lakes. The ECMWF has a stronger but slower low
pressure system reach SW Ohio Friday afternoon but has a more
defined warm front ahead of it that can bring precipitation on
Thursday. Then the models keep the area somewhat active and wet
through Saturday. Cannot say that I am all that confident in either
solution as this summer has been very dry with many areas attaining
moderate drought status. But with the long term model solutions have
a slight chance to chance pop mention for early Thursday morning
through the rest of the long term but not too excited about needed
rainfall yet. Temperatures for this second half of the long term
will be around climatology in the low 80s, could be a touch cooler
if the period is really wet and active.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A fairly hot, moist, and stable atmosphere has settled over
northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this morning as the
region is on the northeast edge of an upper level ridge. As noted
by the 00z soundings from KDTX and KILN, the atmosphere remains
warm from about 850mb to 925mb and will leave an inversion in
place overnight. With the inversion aloft and radiational cooling
allowing surface temperature to fall to near the dew points, some
MVFR fog/mist should form before dawn on Saturday at
KTOL/KFDY/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG as the boundary layer decouples and there
is some additional moisture from convection near these areas on
Thursday and/or Friday. There are some pesky clouds hovering
around KCAK and could possibly move into the KYNG airspace which
would limit the timing of MVFR conditions but perhaps by an hour
or two. A bit less confident on the reduced visibilities at KCLE
as rain has missed the metro area the past few days so have a
tempo as the atmosphere is so moist fog may form but can also fog
development not happening. Left out any fog mention at KERI as it
has been the driest of all of the terminals with dew points only
in the upper 60s and should remain somewhat windy next to the
lake.

As for the rest of Saturday, a very weak and shallow cold front
centered across central lower Michigan will make it to northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania sometime Saturday morning. This
front will not spark any convection and will do very little other
than shift the wind direction to just north of west. Skies will
remain mainly clear for Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Sunday into Monday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak and shallow cold front located across central lower Michigan
into lower Ontario will make its way across Lake Erie this morning.
Winds will shift from the SW/WSW to NW/WNW for Saturday. Winds
should be fairly light with 10 knots or less expected. For Sunday,
high pressure builds in and winds will be southerly and 10 knots or
less but will increase late and shift to more westerly ahead of
another but much stronger cold front. There could be a chance for a
small craft advisory behind this cold front as waves will be on the
increase with the stronger westerly winds but still looks like 2 to
4 feet will be the maximum as of now. High pressure then moves in
late Monday and winds will be light and variable 10 knots or less
with waves 2 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for Ohz003-006>011-017>021-
     027>031-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic


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