000
FXUS61 KCLE 190743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DAY TO DAY AS
THE INSTABILITY RISES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM
YOUNGSTOWN TO MARION COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK SO EVEN IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS THE DURATION AND STRENGTH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
TO BE SEVERE. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS AROUND 13C
WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SO BRING IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH...THERE ISN`T ANYTHING NOTABLE TO
DISTINGUISH WHICH AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SHOWERS. AGAIN
LIKE SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT NOTABLE...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE ACTIVITY PICKS UP TUESDAY AS WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
LOCATION OF A BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THE NAM IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
THE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WITH
DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WE
CAN EXPECT MORE THAN THE HIT AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE 80S. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS COULD BE NOTABLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME JUST GOING WITH A 50 POP ON THURSDAY...IT WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO BE RAISED. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE
FOR FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. ON THE 06Z
TAFS BACKED OFF ON THE FOG AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREAD IS HIGH. ANY FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND MAINLY WELL INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AND SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT.
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SO EXPECTING PLENTY
OF CUMULUS INLAND OF THE LAKE. THE CAPE DOES GET HIGHER TODAY AND
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT MFD...CAK AND
YNG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...IT
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS AND WAVES TODAY AND  MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WEAK RIDGE WEST TO EAST JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH...THIS WILL MEAN A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA