Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281700
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...DROPPED FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE BY
WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. RAINFALL IS BRIEFLY
HEAVY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT IS PIVOTING ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WE THOUGHT ABOUT
SHORTENING UP THE TIME FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL WAIT TO GET THE TROUGH AXIS PAST THE REGION BEFORE ANY
CHANGES ARE MADE. THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A WARM
RAIN PROCESS CAN DEVELOP IN A BAND OFF OF THE LAKE.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS IN NW PA MAY STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST NUISANCE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH WITH ONE ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE TWO TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
ENHANCED PERIODS FOR SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE COOL AIR
ALOFT A SHOWER COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AT ANY POINT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN A RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVERHEAD. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST WHICH ALREADY INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IN LIFTING CIGS WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
WON`T FIGHT THE OVERWHELMING GUIDANCE BUT WILL ONLY LIFT SOME PLACE
TO 3500 FT. THE CIGS IN THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT WITH SUNSET AND SOME OR ALL OF THE EAST MAY ALSO HAVE
THIS HAPPEN. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

SCT SHRA AROUND ERI AND YNG WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN A FEW ISOLATED SHRA MAY HANG AROUND THE SNOWBELT
OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHRA FROM NW TO SE ON TUE. GIVEN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL ONLY MENTION THIS SHRA THREAT WITH USE OF VCSH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT SOUTH PULLING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE ISLANDS AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS WHERE WAVES
BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET WILL YIELD A HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS. WITH
THE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THROUGH
15Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR
LATER TUESDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KEC









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