Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 191318
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
918 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front located over Lake Erie will dissipate later today.
High pressure will build over the area tonight. The high will
then dominate the weather the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Have increased the chances on thunderstorms this morning. Looks
like most of the activity will be near and west of I-71. However
we will need to monitor outflow from the current convection to
see what we get for the afternoon. Current thinking is that it
will only be isolated to scattered in coverage for the
afternoon.

Previous discussion...
Not much change to the forecast this morning as the weather
hasn`t changed much either. Still seeing a couple of showers
over NW OH with about the west 2/3 of the area now cloudy.
Expect mid level clouds to overspread the remainder of the area
today. Still some question as to how many new showers will
develop today. All of the new guidance is showing scattered
showers later today over the western and southern ends of the
area. Will go along with the guidance and will have 40ish pops
those areas. Will keep a small chance further east but expect
most of the area to again be dry today. Thunder chances appear
somewhat minimal but there may be enough juice in the lower
atmosphere for some embedded thunder at the southwest end of the
area. The area will dry out tonight as the pesky weak boundary
that has been over the area finally dissipates. This means
Wednesday should also be dry with more sunshine than today.

Stay closer to guidance today given the amount of clouds
expected. The exception is at CLE where I have again gone above
guidance. More low 80s are expected on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge builds over the forecast area Wednesday night
and hold fast into early next week. Expect dry conditions to
continue with temperatures running around 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast. Models continue in
good agreement with strong upper level ridge overhead, while a
front is stalled to the west while Jose and Maria drift North
off the East Coast. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Have been watching the convection approaching the OH border.
This activity has been making slow eastward progress and has
been showing a gradual weakening trend. The latest HRRR and RUC
bring this area of precip to the I-75 Corridor around 14z. Will
go ahead and give a tempo for thunder at both FDY and TOL for a
couple hours followed by a few hours of showers. Further east
MFD will get some showers but will stick with vicinity mentions
at CLE and CAK with dry forecasts further east. The IFR cigs at
TOL should lift by midday to MVFR. FDY will also see some
periods of MVFR cigs today but the remaining sites should remain
VFR with mainly mid level cigs. The latest guidance shows the
IFR cigs returning to NW OH tonight. Winds will remain light.
Onshore flow will likely develop at ERI and CLE this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Wednesday through Friday
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Shower or isolated thunderstorm possible across the Western Basin
today. Otherwise high pressure will build over the area. Winds
will continue to be light from the East to Southeast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...DJB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.