Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 272212
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
612 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary has stalled over southern Ohio this afternoon.
This boundary will move northward Sunday morning as a warm
front. Low pressure will track near or just north of Lake Erie
Sunday night with a cold front crossing the region. An upper
level trough will then persist across the area MOnday through
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No significant changes for 630 update.

Original discussion...
Frontal boundary has stalled over southern Ohio this afternoon.
This has allowed for a dry day after the early morning
showers/thunderstorms. Afternoon cumulus will decrease in
coverage this evening. However convective debris cloudiness from
Missouri and the approaching warm front will allow cloud cover
to fill back in across the region after midnight. Showers will
likely hold off until just after sunrise across the southwestern
County Warning Area (CWA). Lows tonight will be similar to last
night.

The warm front will lift across the region on Sunday with a
period of showers/thunderstorms moving northeastward with it.
We will then see how long of a lull there will be in the
showers/thunderstorms before we try to get redevelopment ahead
of the cold front. The cold front will likely cross the region
late evening into the overnight hours. Current thinking is that
the best coverage of rain will likely be with the warm front as
it lifts across the northeastern 1/2 of the CWA. At this point
in time the threat for severe thunderstorms looks very low.
However we will need to monitor the convection that moves toward
the region along the cold front late Sunday evening.

It will be a warm day on SUnday with all locations well into
the 70s. The only exception may be along the immediate
lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Large upper trough/closed low will linger over the Great Lakes
region Monday through Tuesday night. Surface low will spin near
James Bay through this period, with several mid level
disturbances/surface troughs swinging through the region. Will focus
the pops on Monday night timeframe when the best forcing swings
through, and across parts of the area Tuesday when another stronger
perturbation swings across the southern Great Lakes. Temperatures
will be a degree or two below normal through this period although
pleasant, with highs generally in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper trough will continue to be entrenched across the Great Lakes
and northeast CONUS through the long term period, with persistent
northwest flow over the area. A train of upper waves will swing
through the region during this period, the strongest of which
Wednesday, accompanied by a surface front, warrants chance pops in
the forecast. Otherwise, mainly slight chance or no pops for the
rest of the period given weaker forcing/signal this far out.
Wednesday is expected to be the coolest day of the period, with
extensive cloud cover, possible precip, and lowest heights/850mb
temps during the period, with upper 60s expected for highs across
much of the area. Highs will slowly rise each day through Saturday,
with mid to upper 70s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Still some MVFR ceilings across inland locations through 20z or
so. Then all locations should be VFR. Will keep a 35000-4500
foot ceiling across inland locations until late afternoon.
Otherwise light east winds are expected for inland locations.
Northerly winds are expected closer to the lakeshore. Winds at
all sites will become southeast overnight but speeds should
remain under 10 knots. Showers and thunderstorms will move into
the region from the southwest as a warm front lifts across
northern Ohio on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms may reach
KFDY area around 13z then slowly spread northeastward into the
afternoon. Cold front arrives during the evening with another
round of thunder possible.

OUTLOOK...Areas non-VFR conditions Sunday night with
showers/thunderstorms. Non-VFR again possible Monday night
through Thursday in showers/thunderstorms as an upper level
trough persists over the central Great Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Warm front will begin to move back to the north toward Lake Erie
overnight but should not reach the lake until late morning on
Sunday at the earliest. Winds will be light tonight. Sunday
should see an easterly wind around 10 knots until the low
approaches the western end of the lake Sunday evening and winds
become offshore. A cold front will cross the lake by sunrise on
Monday.morning.


Winds will remain southwest to west through much of next week, with
diurnal peaks of 15-20 kts Monday through Wednesday. Marginal
small craft conditions are possible during these diurnal peaks,
mainly from Willowick eastward.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...DJB/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Greenawalt/Mullen


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