Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 022208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
608 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CAP STILL KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FIRING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. LATE THIS EVENING...
MODELS SHOW A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT
SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
APPEARS TO CONTINUE MAINLY EAST...MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
AFTER 05Z EVENTUALLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING. BEST
CHANCE TO REMAIN DRY WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MAV GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS MODELS
HAVE A WINDOW OF 03Z TO 06Z FOR GETTING INTO NW OHIO AND ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. BUT THE TREND BY THIS POINT IS FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER SOME OF THEM MAY
HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR TOL. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TOO AS THESE STORMS ARE NOT OUT THERE YET. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWER/TS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR
ERI TO CLE TO MFD AND POINTS EAST. SHOWERS/TS WILL HAVE MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. OTHERWISE MAY HAVE SOME
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT FOR ERI...UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. FOR MONDAY THOSE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT MAY GUST AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MIDDAY MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA. THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY.  WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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