Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230135
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOWED THE EROSION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AS THERE IS A NE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE AT 850MB AND THE 850MB RIDGE DOES NOT REALLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW. AS A RESULT BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST WITH AN EXPANSIVE
CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK INTO THE AREA BUT SHOULD MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ALLOWING CLEARING OR
PARTIALLY CLEARING IN NW OHIO. MIST/DRIZZLE WAS STILL BEING
REPORTED MIDDAY FROM MANSFIELD TO MARION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EAST WILL TEND TO STAY PUT LONGER WITH A FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. KEPT CLOSE
TO MOS GUID FOR LOWS TO NIGHT ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR...BUT
ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL WHAT WILL BE LIKELY STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER. BREAKS/CLEARING EXPECTED CLOSER TO MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INCHES CLOSER. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PULL AWAY QUICKER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GET
FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND JUST BRING SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM HUDSON BY TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND TAKE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OH/NW
PA. SYSTEM MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW.

WE WILL HAVE WEDGE OF RELATIVELY WARMER AIR FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND
LOW/MID 60S FOR SATURDAY. AM HOPEFUL THAT SATURDAY WILL WARM THAT
WELL...BUT THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITING OUR
EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME A
NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL START OUT AT 13C AND BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY IT WILL BE ONLY 10C WHICH IS THE CUTOFF FOR LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.

THE CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOME MVFR FOG COULD FORM AROUND DAYBREAK.

ELSEWHERE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST PA AND EXTREME
NE OH. THIS AREA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS WERE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE CLOUDS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR MAINLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE IN THE MFD
AREA SOME FOG COULD FORM.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY SOME MORNING CLOUDS FROM CLE AND MFD EAST
THAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE MORNING GOES ON. FOR THE MOST PART
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR AFTER 10 AM.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES...MAINLY CEILINGS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC






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