Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281915
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
315 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will weaken as a weak cold front
moves across the area on Sunday. High pressure will return to the
region for the first part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon.  Deep moisture remains over the area but little in the
way of forcing.  Since most of the thunderstorms are diurnally
driven they should begin to decrease in coverage this evening.
With the approaching front and the weakening ridge, I will not
completely rule out the chance of a few storms overnight but I
will lower the proablilities into the slight chance category

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will move across the forecast area
on Sunday.  The models indicate the front should move through during
the afternoon.  The upper level dynamics with this front are fairly
limited however deep moisture is in place.  I expected the shower
and thunderstorm activity to be more widespread Sunday afternoon.
SPC has placed most of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk outlook
for Sunday. Model CAPE values may exceed 2000 but the lack of upper
dynamics will limit the organization of the storms. Any severe
thunderstorms will most likely be pulse storms with isolated
downburts and possible hail. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on
Sunday as cloud cover and thunderstorms are expected with the
frontal passage. However, if any areas see extended sunshine,  it is
possible temperatures could reach the mid 80s again.
A few scattered showers may linger Sunday evening but high pressure
will slowly build back over the forecast area by Monday morning. Dry
conditions and seasonal temperatures should occur through the first
part of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall upper level pattern shows a ridge of high pressure building
east and then moving east of the area during this forecast period.
This ridge should continue to help support subsidence and warm air
advection into the local area. During the latter half of the
forecast period, an upper level trough will approach the local area.
The Gulf of Mexico will open up once again and force warm tropical
air into the forecast area by Thursday and continue into Friday. A
cold front will move east into the area and bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms. Latest models suggest a cooling trend
will take place into the weekend behind the cold front as upper
level troughiness and west to northwest flow occur.&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Scattered pop-up showers will occur through the rest of the
afternoon. I think at this point it would be best to handle them
with VCTS in all of the TAFS since timing each cell will be nearly
impossible due to the scattered nature. As the sun sets, will
remove threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area. Some
MVFR fog will develop mainly after midnight and then return back
to VFR by 13Z or so in the morning. Holding off on mention of
thunder for tomorrow since most activity will occur after 18z.
Will mention it in the Cleveland TAF. Winds should be 10 knots or
less through the period.

Outlook...Scattered non-VFR possible Sunday afternoon. Brief MVFR
possible overnight and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
The lake is expected to be relatively quiet through much of the
period as surface flow remains rather stagnant.  No major weather
systems are expected through the next 5 days and not expecting any
headlines for small craft advisories to be issued during this time
frame. Otherwise, just looking at the potential for afternoon
thunderstorms today and Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the
area on Sunday. Fair weather returns for Monday through Tuesday and
a good portion of Wednesday.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Garnet
NEAR TERM...Garnet
SHORT TERM...Garnet
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy


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