Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 271725
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
125 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sag southward across the region as low
pressure moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley. The low
will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Saturday allowing
high pressure to build across the region Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update...Forecast still on track this morning so no big
changes.

Previous Discussion...Showers have decreased in coverage as
they entered NW Ohio. This was expected but additional
development should occur at some point late morning into the
afternoon. Otherwise only minor changes have been made to
reflect current trends.

Original Discussion... Showers and thunderstorms over Indiana
continue in an area where the low level jet and decent low level
moisture reside. These showers/thunderstorms will likely
struggle to maintain themselves as they move eastward into a
slightly drier airmass. Short range models have trended further
south with the showers/thunderstorms for this afternoon and even
overnight. So with that said we have nudged the higher POP`s
further south. The best chances will generally be near and south
of a line from Findlay to Canton. The upper level trough will
not cross the region until Friday with the entire region likely
seeing some showers and scattered thunder.

Temperatures will be slightly below seasonal averages today. In
the wake of the cold front on Friday highs should remain in the
lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low will continue to progress to some degree to the east
And southeast. The 00z gfs is aggressive in presenting a solution
With the low becoming cut off and deepening to nearly 1000 mb over
The delmarva region. Inherently this would also have an impact on
The low level flow with a tightening pressure gradient. The other
Models are a bit less ambitious and faster.

Surface low pressure will move from the Carolinas slowly southeast
away from the area over the weekend. This storm system in
combination with high pressure building southeast into the Great
Lakes will setup a northeast flow across the region. A bit of
cold air advection will take place as well keeping temperatures
relatively cool and below normal for a couple days. In addition,
clouds and precipitation chances will occur over the
southeastern portions of the forecast area Friday night into
Saturday in association with the low pressure system. Then, as
high pressure builds in we start to see some warming at 850 MB
across the area along with some subsidence under the weak upper
level ridge resulting in a slight warming of temperatures toward
the end of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The atmosphere will begin to dry out across the forecast area as the
low pressure pulls well away from the region and high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes region. Weak upper level ridging
will dominate into the first half of the week along with a
gradual warming trend with 850 mb warm air advection. We should
see temperatures begin to climb dramatically through mid week as
subsidence and warm air advection continue under the ridge. No
precipitation is expected during the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Surface low in nrn indiana is forecast to move southeast through
the period with the associated cold front dropping south through
the area this afternoon and evening. Conditions across the
region are VFR this hour(17Z) however to our west MVFR
restrictions are common. Followed guidance in keeping VFR
conditions across the area through the afternoon and into the
evening with the occasional MVFR CIG possible southwest.
Overnight and into Friday low pressure will strengthen to our
south as high pressure moves into the upper lakes. CIGS are
expected to drop to MVFR late tonight with patchy fog with
conditions remaining MVFR through the remainder of the morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in low ceilings Friday afternoon could
persist into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds will occur through the day today but will
begin to increase later tonight into Friday as northeast flow
develops. Low pressure will move east across the Ohio valley
and in combination with high pressure building east into the
central Great Lakes will cause the increase in winds. Small
craft advisory conditions will develop later tonight into Friday
and will likely continue into Saturday. As high pressure builds
slowly east, winds should gradually diminish into early next
week ending the threat for small craft conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Lombardy


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.