Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 102310
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE NORTH TOWARD
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONVERGE ON THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY TO GET THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TWEAKED CLOUDS AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THIS EVENING
FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND WE LOSE
THE HEATING OF THE DAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. THERE IS A SLIGHT LAKE BREEZE FRONT THAT MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE TROUGH AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM AROUND MEDINA AND
SUMMIT COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
A LITTLE COOL THE LAST FEW NIGHTS BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS WE MAY GET CLOSE TONIGHT. LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW CIRRUS ON FRIDAY AND A LITTLE DAY TIME CUMULUS INLAND FROM
LAKE ERIE. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT WITH THE LAKE SO WARM THE
IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. HIGHS
AROUND 80 WITH LOW DEWPOINTS...NICE DAY FOR MID JULY.

THE QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE WARM ADVECTION
SHOWER THREAT DEVELOPS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS SNEAKING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST AND IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO GET THE DEWPOINTS TO COME UP. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND BE ENHANCED BY A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE A SWATH OF GOOD UPWARD
MOTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES AND CHICAGO AREA SPREADING ACROSS THE
LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. NOT CLEAR ON SUNDAY IF THE MORNING ACTIVITY
WILL SLIDE EAST AND THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/STORMS OR
IF NEW ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY COULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WITH ENOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO THE MID 80S IF THE WEATHER DRIES OUT. NOTICEABLY HUMID BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW END
LIKELY POPS AT THIS POINT. THE TIMING OF THE JET ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS OHIO INTO PA AND THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
LIMITING THE INSTABILITY WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST. HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD END UP BEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. DETAILS TO
COME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MONDAY WILL BE A SEASONABLY HUMID DAY. HOWEVER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND NE OH INTO NW PA MAY ONLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN OHIO
AND NWRN PA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. AM EXPECTING MVFR AND
POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE KMFD...KCAK AND KYNG...
OTHERWISE VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING. THIS LONGER FETCH AND WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO BUILD WAVES TO THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE. THESE WAVES SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ONTO THE LAKE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ON THE LAKE
ON FRIDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY SLOWLY INCREASING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN






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