Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 272355
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
755 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
High pressure will continue to move away from the region tonight.
This will allow low pressure to track east across the northern
Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front across
the region. The front will stall across Southern Ohio on Monday.
High pressure will build across the lower Great Lakes from the
north on Monday and Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Clustered line of thunderstorms will continue to push east
across the eastern half of the forecast area this evening.
Increased POPs over the east to account for activity. As sun
begins to set, overall areal coverage of thunderstorms should
begin to shrink. Western areas should remain dry through the
night as weak area of high pressure begins to build east
toward the area. Adjusted temperatures to account for rain
cooled air mass advancing east over the area. Localized
QPF amounts could exceed 1.00 inch but basin averages should
be around a tenth of an inch.
Ongoing convection over northwest Ohio is expected to continue to
move off to the northeast. Had some gusts in excess of 60 mph with
the storms but a downward trend in intensity is expected as these
storms move east into less juicy air. Will also have to watch the
storms over southwest Ohio as they could clip the southern end of
the forecast area if they maintain themselves. The HRRR and other
guidance shows these storms weakening. This makes sense as the
instability and available shear is much less the further east and
north you go in the area. Will stick with some scattered wording
for the evening hours but most of the activity should be gone by
03z or so. Stayed to the warm side of guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue tomorrow with a weak cold front
sagging south across the area. Will have a moist airmass in place.
Expect some locally enhanced convergence along the south shore of
the lake by midday. This may be enough of a focus to initiate more
convection. Already had chance type precip chances mentioned and
that seems reasonable. The threat for storms will persist into the
overnight hours but by daybreak Monday northeast flow will be
ongoing. This will slowly dry things out and lower dew points to
more seasonable values. Dry weather should then persist through
the end of the period.
We got warm today and 850 mb temps Sunday are only expected to be
about a degree cooler than today. With a fair amount of sunshine
temps should again make it back into the upper 80s many areas and
have gone above guidance. Will trend to the warmer side of
guidance the other periods as well.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will move east across Ontario on Wednesday, pulling a
cold front south across the area. A shortwave moving south out of
Canada will act to further deepen the trough across the eastern
Great Lakes on Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will drop back to the
lower 80s on Wednesday with highs in the 70s for Thursday and
Friday. There will be a chance of thunderstorms with the front on
Wednesday followed by high pressure and dry conditions to end the
week. The upper level ridge will build in from the west with
temperatures trending warmer into the 80s.
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Area of convection continues to move eastward across the area. It
seems this area of thunderstorms should weaken as it encounters
some drier air at the middle levels of the atmosphere. So with
that said will go with a thunderstorm mention through about 02z
at KCLE and KCAK. Confidence at KYNG is low with the expected
decrease in coverage, but will mention a VCTS for a couple hours.
There will be some MVFR/IFR conditions in any of the thunder.
MVFR fog will be possible where rainfall occured this evening,
especially where the skies clear toward sunrise.
A weak frontal boundary/trough axis will move across the region
on Sunday. This will shift southwesterly winds to the northwest
late in the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may occur near and
south of a Meadville to Marion line. Confidence is low in timing
this convection so no mention in TAF`s yet.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR ceilings and visibility possible Sunday night
into Monday morning.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will move northeast across the
lake late this afternoon into early this evening bringing periods
of higher winds and waves. By late evening winds are expected to
return to southerly.
Lake breezes are expected to push inland again on Sunday aided by
high pressure building to the north. Winds will generally be light
through the first half of the week with northerly winds increasing
to 10-15 knots with the cold front on Thursday.