Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTERACT WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LIGHT ECHOS NOTED ON RADAR STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS ONTARIO WHILE A PLUME OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN SPREADING
NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS JUST
STARTING TO SNEAK INTO NW INDIANA WILL BE DIRECTED EASTWARD WITH
TIME AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FRONT
ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE...BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMNANTS FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAY PROVIDE A
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND THINK ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A
DIURNAL CYCLE...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES. INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHERE MORE SUN IS LIKELY. MODELS SHOWING AROUND 1000
J/KG OF ML CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTHWEST OHIO...EXTENDING NE TOWARDS CLEVELAND AND
ERIE BY THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TO THE NE AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT TRAINING OF STORMS. DUE TO THE
THREAT OF TRAINING...MODERATE STORM MOTION AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...EXPECTING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COVERAGE OF THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT HARD TO DETERMINE SO DID NOT WANT TO
GO WITH ANY FLOOD WATCHES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAVORED AREAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
ALSO HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF A WET MICROBURST WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION TODAY. ONE QUESTION
WILL BE IF CONVECTION TENDS TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME
TOWARDS THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THIS IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE GIVEN
THE WARM MID LEVELS BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AND COULD
REDUCE THREAT OF TRAINING...OR AT LEAST SHIFT IT FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH A DECREASING TREND
AS WE LOSE DIURNAL SUPPORT...BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIDES NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PLACE A SWATH OF RAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE LOW WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST AHEAD OF IT. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES IN NE OHIO AND LOWER THEM
TOWARDS TOLEDO. MODELS ARE PLACING A 1.50-2.00 MAXIMA OF RAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK BUT THIS MAY END UP CLIPPING
NORTHWEST OHIO OR PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE TODAY...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD
WATCH FOR SUNDAY IF A SECONDARY ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE HEAVY RAIN COULD BE THE INTRUSION OF A
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AS SEEN ON THE GFS SO WE ARE STILL TRYING TO
PIN DOWN THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE ON MONDAY EVENING WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION BECOMING
LIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
HELPING TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO THE 70S EXCEPT 60S NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GENERAL...THE MODELS HAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE FRI WHEN A WEAK TROUGH IS SHOWN MOVING EAST THRU THE LAKES.
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ON WED THEN BY FRI ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO
HAVE MOVED BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ON WED SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI AS EAST
WINDS TURN SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY REMAINING PATCHY
BR/HZ WILL DISSIPATE THRU 13Z. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY IN A WEST TO EAST
FASHION. THE SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP CHANGING THE POSITION AND TIMING
OF SCT CONVECTION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
THEIR USE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TAFS BROAD-BRUSHED BUT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS AND CONTINUE THRU 06Z
AND LATER UPDATES CAN BETTER DEPICT WHERE AND WHEN GREATLY REDUCED
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE STORMS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY 06Z CAUSING SW WINDS OF 10 T0 20
KNOTS TO TURN NW TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z...SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD SHRA BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO INLAND SITES WHERE
THE AIR WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING
CAUSING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO SHIFT TO NW THEN NE AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR SUNDAY. NUMEROUS TSRA WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO BEWARE. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
END OF TONIGHT THRU SUN EVE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE LAKE. THE HIGH
SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHT E TO NE WINDS ON WED AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS


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