Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010054
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
754 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS OHIO LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY AS A DOME OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING SNOW STORM AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY SNOW REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS TOLEDO WHERE ACCUMULATIONS COULD TOP
OUT AROUND A FOOT. THE 18Z NAM TRENDED WARMER ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
WHICH CONTINUES CONCERNS FOR PRECIP TYPE ON SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. INCREASED THE MENTION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT BUT WILL WAIT TO
SEE AT LEAST THE 00Z NAM BEFORE MAKING TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS WITH
THE FORECAST. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD PROVE TO BE CRITICAL IF
WE DO HAVE SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MIX IN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO RISE AS WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO. EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS NEAR 30....BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG. ALL 3
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLORADO LOW INTO SERN MISSOURI BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THINK SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NW OHIO TOWARD
MIDNIGHT LOCAL AND SPREAD INTO NW PA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THINK
ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH 1-2
INCHES ACROSS NW OH AND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW TO THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY EVENING
AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE NEW GFS TRACKS THE
LOW JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBUS OHIO WHILE THE NAM TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
FURTHER SOUTH.  GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR SO LEANED TOWARD A
ECMWF/GFS BLEND.  TRACK OF THE 850MB LOW IS FURTHER NORTH THAN YDY
SN NOW THE BAND OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...FROM
NW OHIO ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO NW PA.  UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  A LITTLE
HARDER TO DETERMINE FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  IF GFS TRACK HOLDS
TRUE COULD SEE SOME WARM OVERRUNNING IN THE SOUTH WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF A MARION
TO YOUNGSTOWN LINE. SO SNOWFALL SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE CLOSER TO 8
INCHES.  HOWEVER THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE LOCATION FOR
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THINK ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS
PLUNGING TO -15C MONDAY AFTERNOON...THINK THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL OVER THE AREA MONDAY. WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS...MONDAY MORNING COULD SEE WIND CHILLS OF -5
TO -10 DEGREES.  AND IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT ACTUAL LOWS
WILL BE ABLE TO DIP TO BELOW ZERO FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THE MODELS SPIN UP A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME ENHANCED PRECIP BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THAT
TYPE OF DETAIL. WILL HAVE A "LIKELY" POP FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA WITH A CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. I DOUBT WE WOULD HAVE
ENOUGH SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MIXED PRECIP BUT
NEVER SAY NEVER. WILL JUST FORECAST SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

COLDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
REINFORCING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR CROSSES THE AREA. THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS AND THE SNOW COVER. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS DOWN TOWARD
ZERO OR BELOW.

THE MODELS VARY LATE IN THE WEEK ON HOW FAST THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST. THE ECMWF IS FASTER BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING WHEREAS THE GFS IS 12 HOURS
SLOWER. THE FORECAST WILL BE A COMPROMISE WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING ON SATURDAY INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SNOW SPREAD EAST...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET. A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE LOW
HEADING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST
QUICKLY. WENT QUICKLY TO IFR BY DAYBREAK. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO DETERMINE IF CAK AND YNG COULD GET
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL PERSIST FOR A WHILE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WAVE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SUNDAY EVENING. THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED NORTHEAST WIND BY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE.
TRACKS IN THE ICE FIELDS WILL NOT HOLD IN THE WIND.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK TO NORTH NORTHWEST MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWEST PRETTY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AND
MORE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK






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