Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 192335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
635 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE IN THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REACHES MINNESOTA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STILL DRY. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER
OVER NW PA. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN BACK UP IN THAT
AREA WITH THE INVERSION STRONG. NO CHANGE TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BELOW THE
INVERSION HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TOUGH TO READ THE
BREAKUP IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KERI SHOW SOME DRYING UNDER THE INVERSION
DURING THE NIGHT HINTING AT BREAKS POSSIBLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT CLEAR CUT BUT FOR NOW WILL SKY COVER IN THE UPPER 60
AND 70% RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 85%
COVERAGE OR ABOVE. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP ATTM. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING SUNDAY AS THE AXIS FAR
ENOUGH EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE MIXING. NEXT REAL
CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS. MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE NAM A TOUCH MORE MOIST. WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE LOW WILL
MOVE TO ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE INCREASING CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
ASSOCIATED APPROACHING WARM FRONT. TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL
SATURDAY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STORM NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH HANGING BACK SO FAR TO THE WEST WITH
THE 12Z RUNS TODAY THERE IS LESS INDICATION OF A SECONDARY COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND EURO HAVE
SOME SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES. HAVE USED THE EURO GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH WPC WHICH HAS THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. RATHER MILD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR SWEEPS IN ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. USING THE EURO TIMING FOR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO COOL TOWARD
FREEZING CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE LOW CENTER LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH
ACROSS LAKE HURON. SOME WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC SNOW IS EXPECTED
CHRISTMAS WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE FROM ASHTABULA TO ERI.

THIS PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES AND RELAXES BY FRIDAY AS A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE
EURO. HAVE USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EURO FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STUBBORN STRATUS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH CEILINGS ON
EITHER SIDE OF 2K FEET. ONLY SITE WITH POSSIBLE IFR APPEARS TO BE
MFD OVERNIGHT. SOME SITES MAY BREAK INTO VFR TERRITORY
LATE...SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT TRIED TO PINPOINT
THAT...NOT GREAT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE YET. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST. NON-VFR RETURNS LATER ON MONDAY AND STICKS
AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MIDWEST AT
19/20Z. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...KEEPING THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH...FUNNELING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL SLOWLY
WRAP UP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND BECOME CUT
OFF...WHICH WILL DELAY ITS ARRIVAL ON STATION BY UP TO A DAY. BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A MUCH
MORE ELONGATED INNER CLOSED ISOBAR LOCATED GENERALLY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. OF COURSE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ACROSS THE LAKE...SO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED MUCH FINE TUNING. ONCE THE MODELS PUSH THE LOW
OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA AND INTO MICHIGAN AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA BY 25/18Z...GALES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON THE
LAKE. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50 KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MAYERS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.