Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 261322
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
922 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough across the eastern Great Lakes will pull away from the
region today. High pressure will briefly be in place for the
latter half of today. Low pressure will track across the Ohio
Valley early Saturday morning with another on Sunday. The active
pattern will continue into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes for the 930 update. Few lingering showers
in the east should be gone by this afternoon. Not too much sun
today but temps will be warmer than ydy.


Original discussion...We are winding down with one system to
the east this morning, but attention will be focused well out to
our west for the potential for another round of
showers/possible thunderstorms for tonight. In between will be a
ridge of high pressure.

Far less coverage of showers this morning except for extreme
northeast OH/nw PA. Still cannot rule out a brief shower from
Elyria to Akron and points east through midday. Breaks in the
overcast are across northwest OH and there will be a window of
time today with some sun, but high clouds will be approaching by
mid afternoon. Those western counties across the I-75 corridor will
have the chance at topping 70 degrees for highs, all others
will be sticking in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Any consistency in the forecast models ends by this evening and
the spread is unusually large for these shorter time periods,
but this has been the case for a better part of a week now.
Broadly speaking there are common threads, but the details of
the numerous smaller scale features leaves us with a forecast
that will continue to be in flux.

So, tonight we will be watching for an expected complex of
thunderstorms to move across IL/IN and into Ohio. The spread in
North/South placement of the shortwave as it works on flattening
our menial ridge is quite large. This will dictate who gets
precip tonight. Will focus the highest precip chances from
Findlay over to Marion for now, subject to change. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible given the setup, but location will
need to be fine tuned.

Then for Saturday an isolated threat of showers/thunderstorms
may remain. Went with the cooler guidance for highs if recent
track record is any indication and see no reason to go above
climo in the wake of Friday night system. A little added sun
would boost temperatures.

Sunday has been the day with a somewhat consistent indication of
shower/thunderstorm threat with low pressure to track across
the state. Have likely precip chances both Sunday and Sunday
evening. If this can hold, this may end up being raised. Monday
may give us a break as we await, not for long, the next system
from the upper midwest.

Areas near and south of US 30 will likely get another inch
between now and Sunday night, with locally higher amounts
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not many changes to the long term today.  The period appears to be
unsettled but model differences continue to make it difficult to
pinpoint rain chances and coverage.  Have been unable to find a
completely dry day during the period so the forecast will continue
to see small chances every day.  Hopefully later runs will come into
agreement and fine tuning can be made.  Temperatures will continue
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A persistent band of showers continues to come off the lake.
This band may eventually find it`s way to CAK for a couple hours
this morning. Elsewhere in the east light rain or drizzle
remains possibly through late morning. Already seeing some holes
developing in the IFR cigs but it will take till 18z or so for
them to lift to MVFR completely. This will take the longest over
NW PA. Some breaks remain likely in the west...especially from
late morning through early evening. The models continue to have
trouble pinpointing rain chances for tonight but right now it
looks like a period of showers and possibly thunderstorms are
likely in the west tonight. Will go ahead and bring MVFR
weather and precip back into TOL and FDY after dark. Further
east chances for rain appear to be less but some pockets of
MVFR cigs are likely. NW flow will gradually become west today
before becoming light and variable toward evening. SE flow will
develop later tonight.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR likely at times over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
West to northwest flow will become light this evening as a surface
ridge crosses the lake.  Low pressure will pass near the lake on
Saturday with a brief period of southerly flow expected ahead of the
low.  Winds will become N to NW on the backside of this system.
Unsettled weather will continue most of the remainder of the weekend
as well with the flow again becoming southerly ahead of another
storm system.  A cold front is expected to cross the lake sometime
early Monday with the flow finally settling down and becoming
westerly through the end of the period.   Do not anticipate needing
any small craft headlines during the period but thunderstorms will
be a concern most of this holiday weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina


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