Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 311109
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
709 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across the area today. Cool Canadian
high pressure will build across the Great Lakes by Friday and
slowly move east through the Holiday Weekend. Temperatures will
warm as the flow comes around from the south by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The majority of showers and storms are still to the north as of
the early morning update. Slowed down the progress by an hour or
so across the northern counties. Nudged hourly temperatures up a
degree or two in most areas early this morning since the rain was
slow to arrive. Temps will not rise much where and when it begins
to rain. No other changes for the early morning update.

"Original "Today" discussion...
Some uncertainty in the forecast today. The cold front will
continue to sag south. The models continue to hint of two fronts
or a pre frontal trough and perhaps a secondary front late this
afternoon or early this evening. The jet remains far north and
begins to pull east today. This puts the weak right entrance
region over the forecast area this afternoon. Many of the meso
models forecast the showers expanding this morning over western
Lake Erie which may be reasonable given the warm lake temps and
the convergence that should develop over the lake this morning.
This area of showers and possible thunderstorms may well become
the main producer today as it moves east and south across the
forecast area. Not sure how much new activity might develop ahead
of the secondary front this afternoon or early evening but will
keep at least a small chance of showers and storms into early
tonight for northeast OH and northwest PA.

There will likely not be a lot of cape today but dew points and
PWs will get high and there can certainly be some thunderstorms
especially near Lake Erie and anywhere this afternoon. Some
concern for heavy rain with the high PWs and especially if there
were to be some training cells. Given the relative dryness over
much of the forecast area and the lack of confidence on the heavy
rain, will not specifically mention it in the forecast.

Temps will rise as much as they can ahead of the front depending on
the amount of clouds and showers. Starting out warm this morning.
Will forecast highs at or slightly above the warmest guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models have been consistent in bringing a trailing short wave
across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday evening. With the
cool air aloft, there remains a possibility of a few showers or
thunderstorms as the system picks up moisture crossing Lake Erie.
Not sure of the exact timing, the best chance would seem anywhere
from Thursday afternoon to 06Z or so Friday. There should be enough
subsidence and drying to keep the forecast dry late Wednesday into
Thursday morning.

The 850 mb temperatures are cool on Friday but still thinking there
will be enough anticyclonic flow and subsidence for Friday to
be dry. The surface high will build south this weekend with some
great weather for the Labor Day weekend. Highs Friday below normal
and near normal Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The remainder of the holiday weekend will be pleasant and while
temperatures will creep up into the mid 80s...humidity levels will
still be reasonable. A few clouds will be on the horizon come
Tuesday as shortwave energy attempts to top and begin to flatten the
ridge over the lower Great Lakes. No mention of precipitation
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Slow moving cold front will near KTOL late morning...but not
clear MFD/CAK until late afternoon. There may be a few patches of
BR but not expecting it to be widespread with all of the mid/high
clouds. Best targets would be TOL and/or FDY. A shower/thunderstorm
is possible just about anytime preceding the...but will be most
numerous this afternoon. VFR conditions to start. Non-VFR in the
heavier precipitation. Some MVFR ceilings may initially develop
this morning for the western sites...but expect a lift to VFR for
the afternoon. Light/variable winds will have an abrupt shift to
the north and pick up at 10 to 15 knots this evening as cooler air
moves in behind the front. Lake effect clouds near the interface
of MVFR and VFR expected Wednesday night.

OUTLOOK...VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front will be crossing the lake this morning/early afternoon
taking the light/variable winds around to the north-northwest. The
cold air advection arrives this evening and as the high builds in
the gradient increases. Winds will quickly come up to 15 to 20 knots
and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. A trough with
another surge of cold air aloft and another uptick in winds arrives
Thursday evening. The lull in between may not be enough to have a
break in the Small Craft Advisory. The high begins to have more
influence come Friday and conditions will improve although the
direction will remain out of the northeast. The high will be
overhead this weekend and will provide for excellent weather for the
holiday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Oudeman



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