Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300013
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
813 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND...THEN RETREAT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES
WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHORT WAVE IS EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED EAST. A
FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CLEARING. I SUSPECT THAT THERE ARE
ENOUGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST TO CONTINUE TO FILL ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO AS WELL AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS THAT SEE SOME
CLEARING WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL ALSO
MONITOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...MAY HAVE TO NUDGE THE
FORECAST DOWN IN A FEW SPOTS. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR NOW
OTHER THAN TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT TREND. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL "TONIGHT" DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH
AND A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH OVER CANADA WILL ALLOW
FOR AREAS TO DRY OUT AND FOR PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE LEANING
TOWARDS A COOLER EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK. MODELS HAVE HAD A COOL BIAS THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE MODELS
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO HANG ON AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE AREA AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL RIGHT OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EAST ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BRINGING PERSISTENT RAIN FOR ALL AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND THE GFS IS MORE
OF A MIDDLE GROUND. THINKING THAT A SLOWER SOLUTION IS PROBABLY
THE ANSWER AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT GETS INTO THE AREA WITH
PERHAPS MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY UNTIL NIGHTFALL ON SATURDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE. SYSTEM
TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE AT ABOUT THE ONE INCH
MARK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE
KEEPING MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE COOL SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT DIVERGE TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ON MONDAY MORNING THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING SYSTEM.  EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PRECIP
FLOATING AROUND EARLY BUT THEN DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEW
GUIDANCE IS THEN SIMILAR SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR 36
TO 48 HOURS.  SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY WITH A
PLEASANT DAY ON TUESDAY AS TEMPS STRUGGLE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. AFTER
THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE
ECMWF.  HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH AGREES BETTER
WITH EARLIER MODELS RUNS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  SO...WILL BRING
IN PRECIP CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THEM IN INTO THURSDAY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE AND MORE
PRECIP ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.  ALL IN ALL HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE EAST...AND VIS/CIGS HAVE
RECOVERED TO MVFR OR BETTER FROM CLE TO CAK...WEST. WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND A GLANCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT MUCH MORE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH MAY COUNTER THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND CIGS MAY SCATTER TO VFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. CIGS
WILL THEN DIP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN TOL AROUND 20Z AND WORK THEIR WAY
GENERALLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN SHOULDN`T GET STARTED IN ERI
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW AT UNDER 15 KNOTS CONTINUES ON THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME NE AND THEN EAST
TOMORROW MORNING.  ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN AND COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN AND BECOME NORTH ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES UP THE EAST COAST.  THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
LATE MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE JUST
AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KUBINA



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