Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 200601
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY CIRRUS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT NOT
FORECASTING FOG AT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE OF THE
WIND...HOWEVER...PATCHY 5SM BR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 9 AM.

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE
NW AFTER 7 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MULLEN






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