Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 271731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS ARE AROUND TO THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
MOVEMENT OF THE 8H BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
ONLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
APPEARS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WE REACH MAXIMUM HEATING.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
AS OF 6 AM WAS LOCATED FROM ERIE TO SOUTH OF CLEVELAND AND
TOLEDO. SOME ISOLATED FOG OUT THERE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE TODAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA THIS
MORNING...TS CHANCES WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AND AFTERNOON HEATING. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MILD AROUND 70
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND FAIR FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND BY THE WEEKEND A
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LOWS/HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT. THESE CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND LEAVES US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. BEYOND THAT A FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TIMING SHIFTS AS THE WEEKEND GETS
CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNSETTLED. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
WORDING SHOULD BE SCATTERED OR LIKELY. CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY
WORDING AS THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS LEANING THAT DIRECTION. FOR MONDAY
JUST CHANCE POPS AS AN IMPULSE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. ON TUESDAY
CHANCE POPS AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE
DECKS TO LIFT TO VFR. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALL SITES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT KYNG...KTOL...KFDY...AND KCAK UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR
WITH THE FOG AS DEW POINTS DROP OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER THE LOW STRATUS/MVFR FOG LIFTS BY EARLY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND THE WINDS ARE
NORTHERLY. COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BUT IT WILL BE SLOW. AT THIS
TIME KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THE WINDS MAY BE
STRONGEST THIS MORNING THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME STILL
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE LAKE BUT THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

MARINERS BOATING THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON THE LAKE
THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. THE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE AND THEN
OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE LATE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE GUSTY WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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