Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 081723
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1223 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. OCCASIONAL SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE WEST AND AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST...I THINK HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
SO...NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY AND THEN
FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION APPEARS ON
TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY DIVING
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
FRINGE OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BRUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WITH LESS ORGANIZED SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A COATING OF SNOW TO LOCALLY AN INCH
OR TWO. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST GET THE GROUND WHITENED.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY WEST SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND IT
WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL START OUT
WEST SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
AND PERHAPS A WARNING BUT TOO EARLY TO MAKE A SPECIFIC FORECAST.
WILL MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE. A CLIPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGH
INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF. THIS MAY END UP BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH LAKE ERIE NEARLY ICE FREE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LONG TERM BUT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PIVOTING SLIGHTLY WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED NORTH WHILE SPEEDING UP A BIT
SOUTH. TO THE WEST A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST. BELIEVE FOR
THE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR IN THE WEST.
DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO MFD ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE RETURN TO VFR BY
MID AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT ADDED MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH WHICH
SHOULD TAKE CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR. FURTHER EAST KCLE AND
KCAK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BAND OF SNOW FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
HOLDING CONDITIONS AT IFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THERE MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST...YNG AND ERI STILL NET PRECIPITATING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN AT FIRST
WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR/IFR
TONIGHT. TUESDAY STARTED TERMINALS OFF MVFR BUT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE AREAS OF IFR OR BELOW AS WELL.


OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OHIO AS OF 1130Z.
ANY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF IT. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. HOWEVER IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL AND
HELP CHILL THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
IFR.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FROM THAT POINT ON. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE BUT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE INT DIRECTION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WOBBLES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY IT WILL
ALLOW A WESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...
REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN



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