Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 210845
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
345 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the central United States has extended a warm
front across the Great Lakes region. This low will progress
eastward along the front and deepen as it approaches the area.
The low and its associated cold front will cross the Great Lakes
area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will then build in
behind the front and persist through much of the remainder of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A murky, dreary, yet warmer Sunday is store for northern Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania. A warm front sits just to the north
of the area, extending all the way back to a low pressure system
over the central plains. On the south side of the front, warmer
air is streaming into the region with plenty of moisture. This
is allowing for a widespread area of stratus from upstate New
York to the Mississippi River, which will remain overhead for
all of Sunday. A rather strong inversion remains in the warm
sector so some drizzle is possible with the stratus deck but
measurable precipitation seems unlikely given the dry air aloft.
The aforementioned inversion begins to erode late this afternoon
as the low pressure center moves closer to the region and some
potentially measurable precipitation could creep in late in the
today period but is more certain to occur during the tonight
period. Rainfall amounts aren`t too jarring and should be
limited to a tenth to two tenths at most. Light rain will
continue into Monday as the low and associated cold front move
closer to the region. Overall, rain looks to be intermittent
with perhaps a good chance for rain Sunday night and then a
break Monday morning before a second round on Monday afternoon,
but there may be some lingering rain so don`t have rain chances
too refined at the moment. However, rain coverage and amounts
will be on the increase as the cold front approaches...so have
higher pops and QPF for Monday afternoon.

Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period as the
region will be in the warm sector. Warm air advection will pump
the temperatures up into the mid to upper 40s for Sunday and
cloud cover overnight will keep temperatures rather warm on
Sunday night. This will prime the environment for temperatures
to warm even further for Monday with widespread mid 50s, or
about 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The short term begins Monday night with models showing low
pressure in nrn IL/srn WI region. A warm front will extend east
across the Great Lakes. A weak cold front/surface trough will
extend across eastern OH well east of the wrapped up surface
low. Another cold front will extend south from the low. Monday
night and Tuesday the low will move across the Great Lakes into
Quebec dragging the second cold front across the region early
Tuesday. Will have chance to likely pops Monday night increasing
to categorical most locations Tuesday with the low moves
through the lower lakes. Colder air will move into the region
behind this second cold front Tuesday as the low moves through
the lakes so will have chance to likely pops for rain changing
to snow from west to east. Another weak trough moves through for
Wednesday although outside of the lake effect areas will only
carry slight chance pops. For the northeast however, 850mb temps
drop to around -14C by Wednesday morning which should be good
enough for a little lake effect snow. Thursday dry air moves in
as high pressure moves east through the TN Vly.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Friday looks decent with an upper ridge across the region. Expect
moderating temps and fair skies. The ridge of course is just ahead
of a rather large upper trough that will approach on Saturday
sending deep moisture streaming north out of the GLFMX. The moisture
conveyor will continue into Sunday as the upper trough axis presses
east into the Great Lakes. Will have fairly high pops for Saturday
and Sunday. Expecting rain Saturday and Saturday night with a
possible mix of rain and/or snow Sunday as temps cool.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The aviation forecasts this morning are pretty much status quo
from the previous forecast package. MVFR stratus has overtaken
much of the area with the exception of extreme NW PA. This
stratus deck will eventually cover the entire area and much of
the deck will lower to IFR as drizzle occurs through much of
Sunday. As for timing on the lowering into IFR, tried to time it
with what is happening upstream in Indiana, but confidence in
exact timing is low. This mixed bag of drizzle and non-VFR
conditions will continue throughout all of Sunday and eventually
some IFR fog/mist looks likely to develop on Sunday night into
Monday and have begun to hint at fog development across the
southern TAFs of KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR for much of the Monday through Wednesday time
frame. Gusty winds Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines expected through the forecast period. Light south flow
will persist today and tonight before turning south/southeast at 5
to 15 knots Monday ahead of low pressure moving through the upper
midwest. Monday night winds veer to the south/southwest around 15
knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots from the southwest Tuesday as the
low moves through the central lakes. Wednesday look for northwest
flow 10 to 20 knots behind the low. Wednesday night and Thursday
winds will be light from the west/northwest. Friday winds will be
from the south 10 to 15 knots as another low moves into the upper
midwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...TK


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