Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 240125
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
925 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes will weaken and
shift east Tuesday, allowing a cold front to push through on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No change to current weather pattern as strong upper ridge remains
anchored over the forecast area. Expect clear skies with temps
from the upper 50s into the lower 60s. Could see a little patchy
morning fog. No changes with this mid evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
No change for mondays forecast as upper ridge holds fast.  Expect
dry conditions and well above normal temps.

Persistence is the way to go till a cold front crosses the region at
mid week. Unseasonable warm temperatures will continue Monday and
Tuesday with 90 possible again at the traditional warm spots. Expect
to set some more temperature records.  The cold front is still on
track for Wednesday but the system is very moisture starved.
Wouldn`t be surprised if the front is slower than forecast given the
presence of a hurricane off the east coast.  Have trimmed back
precip chances back to about the eastern two thirds of the area and
even there will need no more than a 20 or 30 pop.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The broad trough that develops over the eastern two-thirds of the
country is progged to deepen by the weekend as several strong short
waves propogate through the trough. It may be just cold enough aloft
for a few lake effect rain showers Wednesday night into Thursday in
the snowbelt. At the very least we should see some lake effect
clouds.

The next cold front is due later Friday or Friday night depending on
which model you prefer. I prefer a slower solution given the
sharpening of the trough. Will have s small chance of showers Friday,
mainly in the snowbelt, then a better chance Friday night although
most of the moisture could be limited except where there is lake
enhancement. Will keep a chance of showers going in the snowbelt
into the weekend as 850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to 2-4C.

High temperatures will probably be a shade below normal in the mid
and upper 60s Thursday and Friday, then struggle to get out of the
50s on Saturday behind the cold front. Lows will go from the 50s to
the 40s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Strong ridge/high pressure anchored over the eastern Great Lakes.
Light early morning fog a possibility and leaned toward
replicating last night and giving TOL the only MVFR/IFR fog,
but only for a couple of hours. Light/near calm winds tonight
will once again be northeasterly Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog. Non-VFR
possible Wednesday/Thursday with a cold front Wednesday and much
cooler temperatures Thursday and flow off of the lake.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will remain in place
through Tuesday with quiet weather continuing on the lake.  Winds
will remain variable under 10 knots the next 3 days.  A cold front
is still on track to cross the lake on Wednesday.  Winds will become
northerly behind this feature and increase some.  We could briefly
get close to small craft conditions on Wednesday night or early
Thursday. Northerly winds will continue for the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...DJB/Kubina
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Kubina



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