Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 260510
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
110 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England will depart to the east tomorrow. A
strong cold front will move across the area on Monday bringing a
transition to below normal temperatures. An upper level low will
linger over the region through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Only thin cirrus affecting the area so far this evening. First band
of weak convection now about halfway across indiana which lines up
well with HRRR/RAP projections. As the upper low starts to dive se
toward the area later tonight...the increasing dynamics should act
to increase the coverage of the shra and isolated tsra along the
frontal band.

The front is expected to be near a Toledo-Findlay line by 8 AM and
expect to see showers start filling in across northwest Ohio as the
morning rush begins. Lows will not be as cool as last night and will
range from near 60 in the far west to near 50 in the far east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will move east across the area on Monday and is
expected to clear the northwest Pennsylvania counties by mid-
afternoon. Shower activity should get a boost in coverage by
mid-day from a combination of daytime heating and lift ahead of
the deep trough pivoting in from the west. Some enhancement is
also expected in eastern areas by the entrance region of a 100
knot upper level jet streak. Most areas are expected to see at
least a little rain with the frontal passage with coverage of
thunderstorms and heavier showers increasing in the east during
the afternoon. Increased the spread in temperatures from west to
east as eastern areas will have more time to warm before the
front/rain arrive. Models still showing a well pronounced dry-
slot wrapping in from the west which will bring an abrupt end to
showers lagging the fropa by a couple hours.

This cold front ushers in the coolest airmass of the fall thus far
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s through mid-week. The dry
slot remains overhead on Tuesday and most areas will be dry except a
few stray showers near Lake Erie. On Wednesday the upper low pivots
south and should kick off scattered showers. A few thunderstorms may
even be possible as the cold pool aloft moves overhead and
instability increases. Wednesday is forecast to be the cooler of the
days and if cloud cover is thick enough then a few locations may
struggle to reach 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper low will be lingering a while longer across the region. As it
wobbles and drifts across the upper Ohio Valley and the central
Appalachians...it will keep the cooler but near normal
temperatures...cloud cover...and a few scattered showers in the
vicinity. There is no good timing although showers may be diurnally
enhanced. Have stuck closer to the GFS ENS for now and used a blend
for temperatures.  This keeps us in the upper 60s/near 70 for
daytime highs and into the 50s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front...currently into Western Indiana...will move across the
forecast area this morning. Showers and isolated TSRA will move
into the area this morning ahead of the front. It will be mid
morning or later before the precip reaches the I-71 corridor. Given
the time of day will not mention any thunder. Expect MVFR
conditions the showers. The front will be to the I-75 corridor
around 12z and into NW PA by around 18z. Westerly flow behind the
front will gust to 25 knots. Expect rapidly improving conditions
behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Occasional non-VFR at ERI with lake effect clouds or
showers on Tuesday. Non-VFR possible for all terminals at times
between Wednesday and Friday with upper low and showers lingering
across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure moves east tonight and winds will kick late afternoon
on shore winds around to the southeast and then south by Monday
morning. The cold frontal passage is expected mid morning across the
western basin and the east end by late afternoon. With a wind shift
to the west-southwest after the front speeds increase and a Small
Craft Advisory will be needed. Southwest winds remain steady at 15
to 25 knots through Tuesday. The low center with this system will
then drift across the lakes to the Upper Ohio Valley mid week
diminishing winds and bringing them around to a northerly component
through Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Oudeman


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