Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261147
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
647 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

There will be a chance of light snow across central and northern
Lower Michigan today as low pressure tracks across the northern
Great Lakes. Winds will be blustery this afternoon. Another low
will bring rain for Tuesday, changing to snow on Wednesday with
colder weather and snow showers for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Fast moving clipper tracks across Lake Superior this afternoon
with some southwest flow lake enhanced snow showers across roughly
the northern half of the forecast area. Any accums will be less
than an inch and mostly confined to far northern zones.

Sfc ridging follows for tonight with fair weather persisting into
Monday night. Return flow moisture arrives with rain and snow
breaking out from south to north late Monday night as sfc ridge
moves east and Plains low approaches. Warm advection continues
Tuesday and temperatures eventually warm enough by afternoon to
turn precip type to rain even across northern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Tuesday night looks rather rainy. Both the gfs and ecmwf show low
pressure moving across Lower Michigan; the ecmwf is wetter. Given h8
temps near +8c, pcpn will be rain Tuesday night-Wednesday. This pcpn
will mix with and change to snow from north to south Wednesday night
as the low moves by and colder air wraps in. Both models strengthen
the low as it moves through, so pcpn should be ongoing, especially
with the trailing short wave moving through  This will help in
drawing south a colder shot of air Thursday. We`ll keep snow showers
in the forecast Thursday as a broad upper trough will remain over
the Great Lakes.

H8 temps near -12c Thursday will support lake effect snow showers.
Those temps fall to -18c by Friday. Despite some ridging moving over
the lake, we should still keep some snow showers going, although
accums will most likely be limited. The snow showers will begin to
diminish Friday night into Saturday as the cold air moves east and
we tap some warmer air with southwest flow.

Highs in the lower 50s Tuesday will fall to the lower to mid 30s
by Thursday and Friday before rebounding to the 40s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 647 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

There could be some local MVFR near and north of MKG and GRR in
light snow at times today, otherwise VFR conditions expected
through Monday morning. Southwest winds will increase this morning
with gusts over 20 knots through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

No changes to the Small Craft Advisory. There could be a few gusts
to gale force this afternoon before winds begin to decrease this
evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

The Muskegon River basin was impacted the greatest with widespread
rainfall of 1"-2". As a result, crests from Evart to Croton will be
very close to bankfull. Significant flooding is not a concern but
areas immediately adjacent to the river banks may experience
overflow. The Chippewa River should crest just above bankfull as
well from the heavy rains yesterday. The Maple River and Grand River
will also experience some rises, though nothing significant and any
above bankfull stages will have limited impacts immediately adjacent
to the rivers.

Looking ahead, rain returns to the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday
before changing to snow. This rain may act to slow the falls on the
rivers for the middle of next week but additional rises are not out
of the question.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...Ostuno



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