Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
144 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Widespread showers will overspread the area from the west this
afternoon and continue through the evening hours. Temperatures
will range variably from the mid 40s in southern lower Michigan
this afternoon to around 60 degrees in west central Indiana.
Showers will continue through the overnight hours, with lows in
the 40s to low 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Upstream arc of shra contained within warm air advection zone
continue to languish with ern extent and suspect most of this will
decay to sprinkles as it translates east into nw OH by daybreak.
More erstwhile development this morning located well west in
advance of sfc low and attendant frontal zone over central IA in
an area of more robust low level moisture flux/theta-e ridging.
This will work east into the area late this afternoon and evening
with an isolated thunder chance over wrn zones.

Otherwise showers end after midnight ern areas followed by sfc high
pressure Thu.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Active nrn stream flow across southern/central Canada projects a
mild zonal flow across the Conus this period. Trailing southward
extent of washing sfc frontal zones in association with disturbances
passing well north through se Canada of little concern given limited
low level moisture return. Otherwise well above normal temps
expected through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A potent low pressure system will track through the southern Great
Lakes during the TAF period. Rain showers currently on radar will
impact KSBN near the onset of the period and KFWA a few hours
later. Thunder chances are minimal and any lightning observed over
the past several hours has been well south of the terminals. Given
little to no instability despite strong forcing, left out thunder
in TAFs. Cold front swings through with winds veering from
southeasterly early to west/northwesterly late. LLWS possible for
a brief time, particularly at KSBN, with calming winds during the
frontal passage overnight. Moist boundary layer and subsidence
inversion will keep low clouds entrenched across the area behind
the front, with confidence increasing in IFR ceilings, possibly


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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