Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE UPPER 80S IN NORTHWEST OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

POTENT SW DISTURBANCE OVR SRN MB WILL CARRY NEWD INTO
JAMES BAY BY THU AM AS TRAILING SFC BNDRY WASHES OUT ACRS THE LAKES
THIS AFTN. DOWNSTREAM LL FLW WITHIN EWD FOLDING LL THETA-E RIDGE
HWVR REMAINS WK W/H85 WRLY WINDS OF 15KTS OR LESS.  THUS IN
COMBINATION W/EWD STREAM OF CONV CLD DEBRIS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
GENERAL POOR FNTL BASED FORCING AS ASSOCD HGT FALLS W/SW PASS WELL
NORTH. ALL THE MORE REASON TO BACK OFF ON POPS ESP WRN PORTIONS
EARLY ON EVEN IN LIGHT OF RECENT CONV CLUSTER ACRS NE IL WHICH IS
XPCD TO DECAY EWD INTO FAR NW INDIANA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MEANWHILE
MOST AGREEABLE SHRT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME ISOLD-SCT STORM
DVLPMNT PLAUSIBLE AFT 18Z IN ERN AREAS...I-69 EAST AND GENERALLY
FOLLOWED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
HEAD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY AND REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SERIES OF WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND MAKE HEADWAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES EVERY FEW DAYS. BEST FOCUS
FOR CHANCES APPEARS TO BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME WHEN
PLUME OF MSTR MOVES IN AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE TO
GIVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. GRIDS GENERALLY
LEFT ALONE WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO FLIP FLOP ON TIMING/LOCATION OF
BEST CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND KFWA. NO CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AT KSBN BUT SOME MVFR STRATOCU MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER CHICAGO IS ADVECTED
EASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD


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