Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1156 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Issued at 421 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Warmer conditions are expected today, as highs this afternoon
reach into the 60`s and low 70`s. Expect partly cloudy skies with
gusty southwest winds. Rain will move in tonight and continue
through the weekend. Thunderstorms are possible, but severe
weather is not expected. Highs this weekend will be in the upper
50`s and 60`s. Lows will be in the 40`s and 50`s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main story for today will be high temperatures, cloud cover,
and gusty winds. Rain moves in tonight. A Ridge at 300mb/500mb
builds over the CWA through tonight, with a cut off low situated
over the central plains. Under south-southwest return flow from
the Gulf, we`ll see moisture and warm temps advect into the region
this afternoon and tonight. While low levels continue to moisten
through the day, drier air exists aloft with associated subsidence
from the upper level ridge. At the surface today, a warm front
will lift northeastward into Michigan. It stalls out and remains
stationary through roughly Saturday as the low to our west
approaches and occludes. Some models kick of precipitation, but
think this is overdone given the drier mid levels. I think the
main thing we will see out of this activity is cloud cover giving
limited forcing, given the stronger inversion just below 850 hPa.
With stronger winds aloft, have gusts up to 25-30 knots out of the
southwest as we mix out the inversion later in the afternoon.
Forecast highs will be in the upper 60`s and low 70`s today, and
could reach a bit higher if we manage to breakout of some of the
cloud cover. It doesn`t look like we`ll come close to breaking any
daily records at FWA today...with 86 (1910), 80 (1939), 74
(2000), and 73 (1987) holding the records for highest temp at FWA
on 3/24. At SBN we would be close to tying the third place daily
high temp record, with 82 (1907), 75 (2003/1910), and 73
(2000/1928)holding the top spots right now.

Rain moves in shortly after sunset in the western half of the CWA,
then gradually spreads eastward overnight as forcing associated with
the low to our west moves into the region. Wouldn`t be surprised
to hear a rumble of thunder either, with 100-300 J/Kg of MUCAPE
overspreading the region. Expect some areas of fog to develop over
Lake Michigan, with perhaps a few dense spots given the stronger
WAA/Moisture Advection in the low levels and a deepening inversion


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Above to near normal temps continue, with chances for rain in the
long term

The occluding low pressure system...over western MO by 12Z
Saturday...will continue to lift northeastward into Lake Huron and
weaken through Monday. As they say, upper level low look out below.
I have rain expected or likely for the CWA Sat-Sun, with chances
for a few thunderstorms as well (non-severe). During this period
we receive abundant moisture from that return flow mentioned in
the short term-with PWATS expected to be upwards of 150% of
normal, especially in the NW CWA. In the NW we have stronger
forcing as well, with a coupled jet structure associated with the
low to our west and another branch to the north over Lake
Superior/Upper Michigan. As a result, I have higher POPS/QPF in
this region.

In the wake of the low Monday AM, models have a ridge building aloft
as a secondary low pressure trough (or center, depending on the
model) moves into MO. Have likely POPS Monday afternoon as this
models are in agreement as far as bringing this area of low pressure
through our CWA (though they differ slightly in terms of strength
and exact placement).

We get a break in precipitation for most of Tuesday into Wednesday
night before the next chances move in Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures throughout the period will be in the 50`s and low 60`s,
which is above normal for most locations.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

VFR conditions expected through 00Z as low and mid clouds likely
begin to increase by late afternoon/early evening. Shower chances
will increase around/after 6z at KSBN with MVFR cigs/vsbys taking
hold. Potential for IFR at KSBN after 12Z as deeper moisture settles
in and more widespread area of showers possibly moves in. Have
stayed conservative, but cigs could drop to 500 ft or less and vsbys
less than a mile.

At KFWA, precip will likely take longer to reach the site with
measurable precip and MVFR cigs not arriving till closer to 15z with
deteriorating conditions after 18Z.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.




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