Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 290829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SHORTLY...

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TAKING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM
DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE QPF
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN KEEPS SOME QPF AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS WET THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS...AND KEPT POPS
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SMALL POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER WORDING...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW NO MEAN LAYER CAPE. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING QUIET WEATHER. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS KEEP 50S
NEAR THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD


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