655
FXUS61 KBGM 081824
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon and
evening across the NY Thruway but most of the region will be
warm and breezy with dry conditions. A cold front moves in
tonight that will mark the beginning of a cooler pattern with
frequent chances of rain showers into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
225 PM Update...

Dry air has really mixed into the boundary layer this morning
that has reduced the chances of storms this afternoon and
evening. A bit of surface convergence across the NY Thruway has
been able to generate a bit more in the way of agitated cumulus
as well as a couple of developing showers. Right now with the
high shear, the storms move out of our area before they deepen
into thunderstorms and it is likely that will persist into the
early evening. A cold front is dropping south through the Great
Lakes but the timing of its arrival will be after the better
moisture and forcing leaves the region with low chances of
precipitation mainly north of I90.

Tomorrow is looking much cooler with northerly flow advecting
in cooler 850 mb temperatures. As the upper level trough slowly
drops south through the day, a 500 mb shortwave and associated
surface low moves through the mid Atlantic increasing chances of
rain mainly in NEPA with CNY staying dry before sunset.
Tomorrow night, an inverted trough sets up with light rain
overspreading the region. QPF amounts are looking light, largely
staying under half an inch and the rain rates will also be
light, likely staying below a 10th of an inch per hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update:

An area of low pressure will slide eastward south of our region
Thursday night. This will bring a resurgence of rain showers to
the area. Then on Friday, a shortwave trough will bring more
rain showers to the area. With the cool airmass in place,
temperatures on Friday will be well below normal with highs
only in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

The trough moves east of the area Friday night, which will
result in a decreasing coverage of showers. However, still
cannot rule out a few lingering showers, particularly across
Central NY and east of I-81. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy
skies are expected with lows in the 40s.

More showery weather is anticipated for Saturday, particularly
in the afternoon as yet another trough approaches the area.
Temperatures will remain cool with highs only in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Then additional scattered showers with lows in the
40s is expected Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 AM Update:

The unsettled and cool weather pattern continues at least
through Monday with multiple shortwave troughs moving through
the area. Specific timing of these shortwaves remains uncertain
this far out and therefore timing of showers remains uncertain
as well. In between each shortwave, brief dry periods of weather
are possible. By Tuesday, ridging may start to build in which
may finally bring temperatures closer to normal and perhaps
introduce drier weather. However, some model guidance keeps the
persistent troughing around with additional showers.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry air has moved in with VFR conditions at all terminals. A few
showers are trying to develop around RME and SYR and will be
monitored but most of the storms will stay to the east. Tonight,
a cold front moves through with cigs falling back down to MVFR
cor CNY terminals. ITH and SYR have the best chance at seeing
IFR cigs briefly early in the morning. Cigs will begin to rise
and scatter out later in the morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...VFR

Thursday Night through Monday...Periods of showers with some
restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG