507
FXUS61 KBGM 080635
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
235 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Not as warm, but still humid across Central NY today while
Northeast PA remains warm and steamy with the best chance of
afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. Turning a little
less humid tonight as high pressure builds in. Wednesday will
feature just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm before
becoming more active again for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A cold front slowly moving across central NY will continue to
gradually push to the south and east this morning before
stalling out this afternoon just south and east of NE PA. As the
boundary moves through early this morning, there can be an
isolated shower over CNY, but all-in-all it will be a largely
dry frontal passage. Behind the front, temperatures won`t be
nearly as high today with highs across much of CNY in the upper
70s to lower 80s, but dew points are expected to remain in the
mid 60s to nearly 70 degrees in some places, so it will still
feel on the humid side.

Across NE PA and the southern Catskills, it will still be warm
and steamy this afternoon with dew points in the upper 60s and
lower 70s and high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to near
90 degrees. The heat and humidity will help to destabilize the
area this afternoon and with the stalled front not far away,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up
through the early evening. There is some uncertainty in terms of
how widespread the coverage of the convection is this afternoon
and evening among the high-res models, with the HRRR and RRFS
being the most active and even brings a shower/storm into the
Southern Tier, there is the potential for any thunderstorm to
produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. PWATs in this area this
afternoon range from 1.75 to locally over 2.00 inches with uni-
directional wind vectors which suggest the potential for some
training. Interestingly, despite the very moist environment,
model soundings are not quite as saturated as one would expect
through the whole column. In terms of instability, SBCAPE is
projected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg with about 25-30 knots of
0-6km bulk shear. Low-level lapse rates look pretty decent, but
mid-level lapse rates are marginal, between 5C and 6.5 degrees
C/km. Currently SPC has a marginal risk in this area for severe
storms this afternoon and evening, while WPC has a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall which seems fair at this time given some
competing factors. If future runs of the CAMs show more of an
active set up this afternoon with storms moving over the same
area, a short-fused flood watch may be needed for portions of
the area.

High pressure starts to build in tonight and dew points will
lower a bit, especially from the Twin Tiers northward into the
upper 50s and lower 60s, so it will feel a bit more comfortable.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s
with some patchy valley fog. The surface high will be overhead
Wednesday morning and slides to the east in the afternoon. An
upper-level shortwave starts to approach from the west and this
can lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon
and evening with the heating of the day. Highs Wednesday are
expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Forecast...

Surface high pressure slides east in into the region Wednesday
morning keeping conditions mainly dry. Skies will remain partly
cloudy throughout most of the day due to the influence of an
incoming shortwave. Scattered showers should start to develop over
NEPA during the evening hours, spreading to the NE as the shortwave
progresses eastward. There is still some model variation with how
this will play out. The GFS solution brings slightly higher chances
of showers in NEPA, while the EURO solution keeps conditions mostly
dry until Thursday afternoon. Southwest flow will keep temperatures
warm with highs in the low to mid 80s both Wednesday and Thursday.
Another short wave is expected to move through Thursday afternoon
with additional showers and thunderstorms. Instability parameters
are more favorable Thursday afternoon, with CAPE values up to
1,100 J/Kg and shear values ranging 25 to 30 knots. The best
chance for rain and isolated thunder will be ESE of the Finger
Lakes region. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM Forecast...

The period remains active with continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the weekend. An upper level trough will
allow moisture to linger into Friday before lifting eastward,
maintaining a chance for showers. By Saturday, our region
becomes positioned between two upper-level low features, while a
brief ridge begins to build in. This may result in a short-lived
dry period Saturday morning before another round of showers
develops by the afternoon. A more organized frontal system is
expected to move through the region on Sunday as the ridge
shifts east and a broad upper level trough advances from the
west. This setup will enhance southwesterly flow ahead of the
cold front, increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Varying conditions will be in place across the terminals early
this morning ranging from VFR to IFR as a cold front slowly
pushes south and east. If pockets of clearing can last long
enough, there can be some areas of valley fog that form which
can lead to brief bouts of IFR or worse visibility, but
confidence is low with the varying cloud decks that will be
moving through.

Mid-to-late morning through this evening is expected to feature
mainly VFR conditions for the terminals. The exception is AVP
which will have best chance of seeing afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms develop nearby with a frontal boundary
stalling out close to the region. Any thunderstorm can lead to
brief restrictions.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday...Some morning low clouds and
fog in the valleys, especially around ELM, otherwise mainly
VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms around.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Scattered showers/storms possible and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...DK