Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 290515
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
115 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will persist tonight into the start of the
weekend. A weak system will bring scattered showers to the
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Temperatures will be cool
on Friday but warm some over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM Update...

Some minor changes were made to the forecast to better match
current conditions. Temperatures remain mild under high clouds
but temps will begin to drop once skies clear.

920 PM Update...

Quiet night ahead with skies slowly clearing from the west. The
forecast remains on track with minor updates made to reflect
current conditions.


630 PM Update...

Quite the nice evening across the region with current temperatures
in the 40s, falling into the mid 30s by mid-evening. Clearing
tonight across the western portion of the CWA will allow
temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s. Winds will be
strong enough to keep the boundary layer mixed, preventing
maximized radiational cooling.

The forecast remains on track for the rest of the period.

230 pm update...

Rain showers has moved out of Delaware, Sullivan and Pike
Counties. With the low clouds there could be some lingering
drizzle. Low clouds are quickly pushing east past Syracuse,
Binghamton, and Towanda. This should push east of the entire
area this afternoon. High clouds are streaming north on the back
side of the cold front but this should also push east this
evening. So skies will clear from west to east late tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the 20s which is where the dewpoints
are. Winds will become light.

Friday with heating and the cold northwest low level flow, lake
effect clouds will dominate but probably with little to no
showers. With the cold air high temperatures will be cooler and
mostly in the low and mid 40s for most except for the Wyoming
Valley which will be around 50. Northwest winds will be 10 to 20
mph with higher gusts.

The clouds will linger into Friday night. Low temperatures will
be from the mid 20s to around 30 degrees. Winds will stay strong
with the tight pressure gradient between the strong low over
Maine and high pressure over Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
410 PM update...

Weak ridging in place early Saturday will push east making way
for a quick moving surface low and upper level shortwave later
in the day and into Saturday night. While the surface low looks
to track over the southern part of our area or perhaps even
skirt by just south of the CWA, there is more uncertainty with
the track of the shortwave with some guidance taking it right
over CNY while others have the wave passing by to the north.
Given this uncertainty, PoPs are generally less than 50% for
much of the area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. QPF
amounts look very light as well. Highs Saturday are expected to
range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Lows Saturday night will
be largely in the 30s and as temperatures in the higher terrain
fall back into the lower and mid 30s, there can be some wet snow
that mixes in with any precipitation late Saturday evening and
into the overnight hours. However, with the marginal
temperatures in place and warm ground from the daytime, any snow
would have a hard time accumulating.

Surface high pressure builds back in Sunday along with some
ridging aloft, and this should lead to a dry day for most with
clouds giving way to some sunshine. Highs for the second half of
the weekend are expected to range from the low 40s to the low
50 with mid 50s possible in the Wyoming Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 PM update...

An active long range forecast looks to be setting up for the
area. There will be chance for some showers Monday, with the
best chance setting up currently over NE PA. Meanwhile on Monday
we`ll be watching a developing surface low over the central
U.S. associated with a deep upper trough. This broad storm
system is expected to lift northeast toward the Great Lakes and
Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday while its associated cold front
presses east across the eastern seaboard. A strong southwest
flow will develop ahead of this system so temperatures are
expected to be in the 40s and 50s with rain. As this low
continues to lift northeast toward New England, it does look to
stall out near this area with blocking developing. The flow will
shift out of the northwest and some chillier air will funnel in
on the backside, most notably with the overnight lows as highs
through midweek are in the 40s, but lows fall back into the
upper 20s and lower 30s, so there can be some lake effect
rain/snow showers persisting through Thursday. However, there is
uncertainty with regards to the low track, so confidence on
precipitation type is on the lower side in the long range, but
confidence is high on the event occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR expected throughout this TAF period. High clouds clear out
this morning though mid-level lake clouds move in later today.
Northwest winds will begin to increase around 15z today with
peak gusts of 20-30 kts. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is possible
at AVP from 09 to 12z with northwest winds with speeds around 40
kts at 2000 ft.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday morning...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR but restrictions
from rain showers possibly changing to snow showers Saturday
overnight and Sunday morning. (Moderate confidence)

Sunday night...VFR (Moderate confidence)

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; chance of showers.
(Moderate confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/TAC
NEAR TERM...BTL/JTC/TAC
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL/MWG


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