424
FXUS63 KDVN 012000
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
300 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The upper level pattern is forecast to remain active with
  periodic chances of showers and storms through early next
  week.

- There is the risk for heavy rain and a Marginal risk for
  severe weather Thursday into Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure sits across southeast South Dakota and northern
Iowa early this afternoon. There are some weak returns on radar
across the Middle Missouri Valley into central Iowa this
afternoon. Rain is being reported at Spencer Iowa as well as
Omaha with several sites reporting mid level cloudiness. Closer
to home, there are northwest winds with gusts of 20 to 25 mph.
Temperatures at 2 PM ranged from 63 degrees at Independence to
73 degrees at Moline.

Moisture and warm air advection is forecast to develop this
evening over central Iowa with the low level jet then veering
into eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast
Missouri after 06 UTC. This would bring rain and potentially
embedded thunderstorms into the area after midnight but more
likely between 3 and 7 AM.

Several rounds of showers and storms are possible through the
day on Thursday as a weak surface low lifts a warm front across
the area. Depending on how the morinng convection evolves, there
may be little in the way of CAPE across the area but models do
show a surge in instability behind the warm front. There is 30
to 40 knots of 0 to 6 km shear which may be enough for at least
isolated severe storms late tomorrow afternoon intothe evneing with
a little bit of instability. The main threat would be damaging
winds. High temperatures will be dependent on how long the rain
is in the area but for now have highs ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of Cedar Rapids to the lower 80s in west central
Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A shortwave trough is forecast to lift northeastward and into
southern Canada to start the period. The NBM continues to
linger showers and storms across northwest Illinois counties on
Friday morning as the cold front exits the area. However, recent
model runs have continued to move the front and its associated
precipitation quickly out of the area on Friday. The remainder
of the day on Friday is forecast to be dry.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the remainder of
the period until a deep trough moves across the CONUS late in
the period. This will allow several shortwave trough to lift
across the area through early next week and bring several
chances for showers and storms to the area about every 24 to 36
hours. These will be followed by periods of ridging and quiet
weather.

Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal through the
period. High temperatures the first week of may are in the lower
to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Broken mid to high clouds are moving westward across KCID and
KDBQ to start the period as high pressure builds into the area.
Northerly winds will continue to gusts up to 30 knots through
the afternoon before diminishing this evening.

Widespread rain showers and potentially embedded thunderstorms
are forecast to develop after 00 UTC near in a stalled frontal
boundary in northern Missouri and slowly spread north and
eastward overnight. This will cause initial VFR conditions to
lower to MVFR as rain spreads into the area after 06 UTC. Rain
will slowly come to an end from west to east after 12 UTC on
Thursday. Confidence is low on the exact timing of thunderstorms
so placed a prob30 group in the TAFs for now. Gusty east winds
are forecast to develop after 12 UTC and continue through the
day.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins