070
FXUS64 KLZK 151706
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1206 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Quiet and cool conditions are ongoing across the area early this Wed
morning as the upper shortwave to the NE moves east further away
from the area. Ridging aloft will move over the state by this
afternoon...keeping most areas dry. A mostly sunny sky and relatively
dry air near the SFC should allow temps to warm into the mid 70s to
upper 80s across the area this afternoon. A small ripple in the
upper flow over NWRN sections may generate an isolated SHRA this
afternoon...but potential too low to add mentionable POPs at this
time.

The main upper ridging will shift east for tonight and for
Thu...with some increasing POPs across NWRN sections late tonight
and through the daytime hrs on Thu. Central to SERN sections should
continue with a dry forecast. This will change by Thu night however
as energy moves downstream of an upper shortwave to the
west...moving over a larger portion of AR. Chances for convection
will increase areawide Thu night...with scattered to widespread
SHRA/TSRA expected by the end of the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Rain and thunderstorms remain likely across the state at the start
of the period as an H500 trough will be moving east across the area
while a cold front sweeps through. Precip should taper off from west
to east before midnight as NW winds and slightly drier air move in
behind the front.

A mostly dry forecast remains in place for the upcoming weekend into
early next week. The heat is expected to build and will make it feel
more like Summer across the state than Spring. Anomalously high H500
heights originating from Mexico will extend northeastward toward the
Great Lakes. This will contribute to well above normal temperatures
for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Highs approaching or
exceeding 90 F appear likely during this timeframe. With the H500
ridge in place, any approaching system will generally be directed
north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

For the 18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites through the
calendar day. Northern TAF sites may have to contend with some
MVFR to briefly IFR ceilings and visibility as rain showers are
expected to spread across northern Arkansas during the early
morning hours of the day on Thursday. Rain shower activity is
expected to be hit and miss, so persistent lowered flight
categories are not expected, but placed MVFR visibility in those
periods where models have indicated best precipitation chances.
Rain showers are expected to spread across the entire state of
Arkansas late on Thursday, but beyond 18Z, so not included in
these TAFs.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  84  64  77 /  10  20  70  70
Camden AR         62  86  64  81 /   0  10  70  50
Harrison AR       61  81  61  73 /  20  30  70  70
Hot Springs AR    63  86  64  79 /   0  10  70  60
Little Rock   AR  65  87  67  81 /   0  10  70  70
Monticello AR     65  87  66  82 /   0   0  70  60
Mount Ida AR      63  86  63  80 /  10  10  70  70
Mountain Home AR  61  83  61  73 /  20  40  70  70
Newport AR        63  86  66  77 /  10  10  60  80
Pine Bluff AR     63  87  66  81 /   0   0  70  70
Russellville AR   63  86  64  80 /  10  10  60  70
Searcy AR         62  86  64  78 /  10  10  70  70
Stuttgart AR      65  86  67  79 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...66