265
FXUS64 KLZK 191650
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Ridging will gradually take place from the southern Plains into
Arkansas the next couple of days. This will result in above to
well above average temperatures, and afternoon readings reaching
at least 90 degrees today/Monday in central/southern sections
of the state.

At the surface, the period will begin with high pressure over
the region this morning. This is creating somewhat stagnant
conditions, and patchy fog will likely form as dawn approaches.
Any fog will be short-lived, with a mix of sun and clouds this
afternoon.

While the weather will be quiet here, severe weather appears
likely this afternoon/evening in the central Plains. Storms
will build to the east tonight, and may reach northwest Arkansas
toward morning Monday before falling apart.

On Monday, high pressure will shift to the east a bit. Clockwise
flow around the high will bring a little more wind than today
from the south, and temperatures will be slightly warmer. Dry
conditions will continue.

As the period ends, a new storm system will develop and begin
intensifying in western Kansas Monday night. The system will head
toward the upper Midwest, and will drag a cold front this way.
For more on the front, onward to the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm and dry conditions will start off the long term period as upper
level ridging transitions to SW flow aloft on Tue. A shortwave will
be lifting NE from the central Plains into the NRN MS River Valley
region by Tue night into Wed morning. SFC low pressure will develop
just ahead of this shortwave...also lifting NE into the NRN MS River
Valley. A trailing cold front will push SE towards AR Tue
night...with some increased potential for convection along/ahead of
this front across the NWRN third/half of the state Tue night into
Wed morning.

The front will wash out over NWRN sections of the state by
Wed...with SW flow aloft continuing over the region. Weak upper
waves will move over the state into early Thu...with some continued
chances for convection remaining in the forecast. A bit more potent
upper wave will lift NE over the state by late Thu night into
Fri...with another enhanced wave of convection possible for that
time frame. The pattern looks to remain unsettled into the weekend
as upper flow will continue from the SW over AR...and with weak
upper waves passing overhead.

An initial threat for strong/SVR storms may come late Tue night
across NRN/NWRN sections ahead of the SFC front. However...most
dynamics will remain well north of AR...so the threat for organized
and widespread SVR storms looks limited. Even so...there looks to be
ample instability and some SHR to generate a few strong to SVR
storms. The threat for more strong/SVR storms looks to continue as
isolated going into the rest of the period...though there could be
an enhanced potential for Thu as the more potent upper wave passes
overhead. Even so...the threat for seeing any organized SVR TSRA
remains uncertain at this time for much of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

For the 18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected through the valid forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms from Oklahoma will make a run at the
Arkansas border tonight, but are expected to dissipate before
getting close to any TAF sites. High clouds will likely spread
over the area, but no aviation impacts are expected. With
high/cirrus clouds in place tonight, heat re-radiated back to the
ground from the clouds aloft should be sufficient to prevent any
early morning fog from developing on Monday. Light southerly winds
may pick up a bit Monday late morning into early afternoon, but
will remain out of the south.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  89  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         65  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       65  87  68  87 /  10  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    66  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  69  92  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     68  92  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  90  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  65  87  68  89 /   0  10   0  10
Newport AR        66  89  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     67  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   66  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         64  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      68  89  71  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...66