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000
FXUS01 KWBC 150758
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 17 2024

...Intensifying storm system to bring the threat of severe weather
and isolated flash flooding to the Plains Monday, followed by the
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday...

...Scattered thunderstorms, including the threat for some severe
weather, from the Upper Ohio Valley east through the Mid-Atlantic
Monday...

...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall expected over the next
couple of days for higher elevations of the northern Cascades,
northern/central Rockies, and eastern Great Basin...

...Well above average temperatures across the Central/Eastern U.S;
Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the central/southern High Plains
Monday....

A deep, upper-level low and associated low pressure/frontal system
over the West will begin to push into the Plains Monday. The
accompanying height falls will help lead to lee cyclogenesis,
rapidly deepening/organizing the low pressure system over the
central High Plains. Gulf moisture return aided by intensifying
southerly flow will eventually lead to increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances by Monday evening to the northwest of the low
over the central/northern High Plains, along a warm front slowly
lifting northward through the Missouri and Middle Mississippi
Valleys, and southward ahead of a dry line/rapidly approaching
cold front through the central and southern Plains. An Enhanced
Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 3/5) has been issued by the
Storm Prediction Center from the low pressure center in western
Nebraska/South Dakota arcing southward ahead of the approaching
dry line/cold front across portions of the central Plains. Some
more robust, supercell thunderstorms are expected to produce
instances of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
A Slight Risk (level 2/5) extends southward into the southern
Plains where storm coverage is more uncertain, but any storms that
do develop will still pose the same threat. Additionally, there
will be a conditional threat for some isolated instances of flash
flooding, both along and north of the warm front from the Northern
Plains into the Missouri Valley where widespread, but not quite as
potent storms will exist, and south into portions of the
central/southern Plains where more potent storms will exist, but
drier antecedent conditions will limit the risk.

The storms will progress eastward with the frontal system through
the overnight hours Monday and into the day Tuesday, spreading
into the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Areas
where residual storms from the night before clear, most likely
through the Middle Mississippi Valley southwestward into the
Ark-La-Tex, will see a renewed threat for severe thunderstorms.
Another Enhanced Risk has been issued for portions of southern
Iowa, northern Missouri, and western Illinois near the track of
the low pressure center where favorable wind fields will lead to a
locally greater threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes, including the potential for a strong tornado. A Slight
Risk once again extends further south towards the Ark-La-Tex where
storms will likely be more isolated, but still pose a threat for
all hazards. A broad threat for isolated flash flooding will exist
over the region very similar to Monday, with more widespread
storms to the north and more isolated but potent downpours
possible to the south.

Further east, another round of storms is expected Monday along and
ahead of a cold front sagging southward through the Upper
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys eastward through the southern Mid-Atlantic.
There is a Slight Risk of severe weather centered around the
Tidewater region of Virginia where enough CAPE for some stronger
updrafts will exist, posing a threat for a few instances of large
hail and damaging winds. In the West, winter-weather related
advisories/warnings are in place for higher elevations of the
mountains of the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies where
remaining moisture under the influence of the upper-low is
forecast to lead to snow accumulations of 6-12"+. Another
upper-level wave and accompanying surface frontal system pushing
southeastward through the Cascades Monday and northern Rockies
Tuesday will bring a similar chance for moderate to locally heavy
snowfall for higher mountain elevations.

Warmer than average temperatures will continue Monday for most
areas of the central/eastern U.S. as upper-level ridging precedes
the system over the West. Highs generally in the 80s are expected
across the central/southern Plains east through the Mississippi
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. A few 90s will even be
possible over the central/southern High Plains. These hot
temperatures and dry conditions, along with intensifying winds due
to the deepening low pressure system, have prompted a Critical
Risk (level 2/3) of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center
Monday. Warm, similarly above average highs are also expected
across the northern tier, with most locations outside of the Upper
Great Lakes/Interior Northeast forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.
Temperatures will slip a few degrees in general Tuesday, but still
remain above average for most locations. Cooler temperatures will
continue Monday across southern portions of the West under the
influence of the upper-low, with 50s and 60s across California and
the Great Basin and 70s in the Desert Southwest. Conditions will
rebound by about 10 degrees on Tuesday as the upper-low moves
eastward over the Plains.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$