Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL
COVERAGE LARGELY AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUAL-POL DIFFERENTIAL
REFLECTIVITY DATA (ZDR) INDICATING THERE ARE STILL SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
WORDING ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OVERNIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. NOTING SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN VA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND WHERE MAJORITY OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OUT WEST, BUT
OTHERWISE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THU WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUG...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVERNIGHT LO
TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
FLATTENING OUT AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DAY OF SCATTERED PCPN...THE FOCUS TURNS TO FORECASTING THE
CIGS AND VSBY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ECG AND ORF THE ONLY
MEASURABLE RAIN AND ECG HAS ALREADY SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT KEPT IFR ONLY AT
ECG DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND RECENT TRENDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST AT ORF AND PHF WITH MVFR FOG AT RIC AND SBY...NEITHER OF
WHICH SAW MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WAS TEMPTING TO INCLUDE IFR VSBY AT
SBY DUE TO THE MOS FORECASTS BUT IT HAS BEEN A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE
THAT THE MOS FORECASTS COME OUT OVERDONE WITH LOW VSBY.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATING
WITH MAINLY SCT CU DOTTING THE SKY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN AOB 10
KNOTS. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS
EXCEPT SW AT SBY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP


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