Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 221541
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1041 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
today. A trough crosses the region Tuesday morning, with the
cold front lagging behind and pushing through the region by late
afternoon. es well off the coast by Tuesday night. High
pressure becomes centered over the south central states
Wednesday and builds east into the local area by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest analysis places a potent sfc low ~992mb over Iowa with
cutoff upper low lagging back a bit to the SW acrs eastern
Kansas and NW Missouri. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure remains
off the mid- Atlantic coast with dry/warm conditions over the
local area. Temperatures are now mainly ranging through the 50s
as of 10 am with a fairly thick cirrus shield in place (and some
mid clouds with cigs around 10k ft over the eastern shore).
Bufkit soundings suggest a continuation of high clouds all day
and will call it partly cloudy overall for the aftn. Well above
avg for highs today, mainly in the mid-upper 60s except locally
cooler coastal eastern shore/Va Beach/NC Outer Banks. Do not
anticipate setting any record highs today but for reference
these are included in Climate section below.

Dry/very mild tonight with temperatures staying in the 50s just
about everywhere. Partly/mostly cloudy in the evening, then
becoming cloudy overnight with increasing rain chances after 06Z
mainly over the Piedmont. Have likely PoPs to the I-95 corridor
after 09Z. Enough mid level instability will move in late to
include mention of isolated tstms late across the far west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High rain chances (60-80%) prevail Tue morning as main sfc low
pressure becomes occluded over Michigan and significant pressure
falls and a meso-low develop along the central Appalachians by
around 12Z. The strength of this feature will likely have a
significant affect on QPF and the potential for some embedded
convection in the morning in a high shear/minimal CAPE
environment. At this time, SPC does not even place the CWA in a
marginal risk and current pattern with convection across the
deep south and Gulf of Mexico could be a hint that a split in
the precip shield is likely (and thus most areas should expect
0.25" or less of total QPF except for locally higher amounts in
tstms). Models remain in good general agreement wrt timing and
should see PoPs taper off W-E quickly by aftn...w/ pcpn moving
out of the entire area by 21Z/Tue to 00Z/Wed. With aftn
sunshine, deep mixing, and a downslope flow highs Tue will be
breezy and unseasonably warm, possibly close to record highs.
Current forecast is for highs 70-75 F across much of central/SE
VA and NE NC, with 65-70 F on the eastern shore and over the far
N/NW sections of the CWA. Dry cooler Tue night/Wed w/ lows
mainly in the 30s and highs Wed upper 40s N and on the ern shore
to 50-55 F elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Medium range period (late week into next weekend) characterized by
building upper level ridge building over the eastern half of the
CONUS. Starting off seasonably cool behind the cool front on
Thursday...then steadily warming as surface high pressure builds
over the area on Friday, sliding offshore late Friday and Saturday.
Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thu/Fri warm back into the 50s
Saturday...and well into the 50s to 60s by Sunday.

Remaining dry through the Saturday night. Rain chances increase by
late next weekend, as an amplifying upper trough over the plains is
forecast to lift across the Plains from the desert southwest
Fri/Sat. Gulf is wide open during this time frame, and expect llvl
moisture to surge north into the area ahead of this feature, with a
period of showers late next weekend. Worth noting that there is good
to excellent agreement among the GEFS/EPS early next week, as both
show temperatures dropping back quickly behind the associated cold
front into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue through the bulk of the 12Z
TAF period. BKN-OVC mid level cloudiness (CIGS mainly 7-9 kft)
moving across the local area attm...expected to continue into
the morning hours...w/ most CIGS lifting to above 12 kft for
late this morning-this eve. Generally light S winds early
today...increasing to 10-15 kt through the rest of day. Sfc high
pres remains off the SE coast w/ dry conditions continuing. The
next chance for widespread precipitation and flight
restrictions comes after 06-09Z/23 through (early) Tue aftn
with a passing cold front. Gusty SSW winds (to 20-30 kt) early
Tue shift to the WNW late in the day along w/ potential for
widespread IFR CIGs (and SHRAS). ISOLD tstms possible with the
front mainly Tue morning. Dry and VFR conditions then prevail
late Tue-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters today will keep S winds below 15 kt
Waves/seas 1-2 ft. Winds will begin to increase tonight as a
deepening low over the Great Lakes pushes its associated cold front
toward the region by Tues morning. Winds will increase to 15 to 25
kt from the S-SW prior to daybreak Tues, continuing thru
midday/early aftn, with seas on the coastal waters building to 4-6
FT; waves 3-4 ft on the Bay. SCAs remain in effect for all waters.
Hard to get Gales with warm S-SW winds over cold water this time of
year, but did keep mention of a few gusts to 35 kt for our northern
coastal waters. Once the front clears the area Tues afternoon, winds
will shift to the west 10-15 kt Tues night/Wed and then northwest on
Thursday. Waves/seas subside to 1-3 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures today and Tuesday.

     Today   Tuesday
RIC 75/1906  76/1974
ORF 77/1937  76/1999
SBY 72/1927  73/1999
ECG 79/1937  76/1937

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday
     night for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...JDM/MAM
CLIMATE...AKQ



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