Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 271718
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
118 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area later today into tonight.
High pressure will build over the area Wednesday, then slides
off the coast for Wednesday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad trough aloft slides fm the ern Great Lakes/OH Valley E
through the NE CONUS and Mid Atlc region this aftn into this
evening. A relatively potent s/w aloft will track acrs the local
area this aftn/early evening. Despite relatively dry airmass,
this system could prove strong enough to squeeze out isolated to
sctd showers/tstms, esply along and E of I 95. Will carry
20-30% PoPs, with the highest PoPs over extrm SE VA and NE NC.
Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hi pres will finally build into/over the region tonight
through Wed...providing dry weather and comfortable conditions
under a mainly clear sky. Lows tonight in the l-m50s inland...to
the u50s to l60s at the coast. Highs on Wed ranging in the
l-m80s...mainly 70s at the beaches.

The high will slide off the coast for Wed night and Thu...maintaining
dry wx. A little more humidity returns as SSW flow starts to
dominate again (dewpoints return to more climo normal levels (in
the 60s) by Thu afternoon). Lows Wed night in the u50s-l60s
inland...l-m60s at the coast. Highs Thu 85-90F...except l80s at
the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long term period will begin mainly dry Thu night/Fri as the
models remain in good agreement with the pattern of high
pressure at the sfc and aloft centered off the mid-Atlc/SE
coast. Highs Fri look to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s with
dew pts increasing to the upper 60s/lower 70s. An isolated late
day tstm possible over the far W and for interior NE NC but have
genly kept PoPs <15%. A little better chance for rain arrives
Sat aftn/Sat night as somewhat deeper moisture develops along a
lee trough. Will cap PoPs at 20-30% in the aftn/evening under
partly-mostly sunny skies as any more significant forcing stays
W of the Mtns closer to an approaching cold front. Lows mainly
70-75 F with highs again primarily in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Sunday will see a further increase in PoPs to ~40% by
aftn/evening as the cold front gets closer to the local area.
With this several days out will cap PoPs at 40% for now, but may
raise PoPs for this in future updates if the timing holds. Mon
will see the front slow or stall across mainly southern portions
of the area with ~40% PoPs S to 20-30% elsewhere. Lows upper
60s to lower 70s and highs 85-90 F.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. A weak cold front
will pass through the region late this afternoon/tonight.
Additional isolated/scattered shwrs/tstms are possible this
afternoon and evening, especially E of I 95. Latest hi-res
guidance suggests KSBY has the best chance, but not high enough
to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be variable and under
10kts until frontal passage, then become N/NE post frontal
passage. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected for much of the
week...as sfc hi pres builds over the region, then slides off
the coast on Thursday. Next chance for ceiling/vsby
restrictions will be late Friday/Saturday in scattered
showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
     10 am update...Have increased winds/waves through the rest
of the morning as observations show brief northerly surge moving
down the middle/lower Bay. Winds should subside to 10 kt or
less around or shortly after noon. In addition, hi res models
suggest another northerly surge overnight into early Wednesday
morning behind secondary cold front. Winds could approach SCA
criteria for a brief period, before again subsiding by late
morning. Rest of forecast unchanged at this time.

     Previous discussion...Generally a quiet pattern through Wed
night with a weak pressure gradient, although there will be a
few brief wind shifts w/ weak frontal passages early this
morning and with pressure rises Wed morning as sfc high pressure
builds into the region from the NW. Weak CAA today will only
bring N/NW winds behind the front of 10-15 kt, diminishing by
aftn to 5-10 kt. Sfc high pressure returns for Wednesday aftn
leading to an aftn sea breeze 10 kt or less. Waves over the Bay
only 1-2 ft with seas over the coastal waters 2-3 ft thru Wed.
High pressure slides well off the coast Thursday/Friday with
return flow resulting in increasing S-SW winds to 15-20 kt.
Waves 2-3 ft on the Bay and seas possibly building to 4-5 ft
north of Parramore Island (genly more like 2-4 ft for southern
coastal waters). A few SCA headlines may be needed late Thu/Thu
night, but they will be marginal events.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...JDM/LKB/WRS


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