Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
702 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLIDE NORTH AND
DISSIPATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT
TO THE EAST AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID THAN FRIDAY AS DEW POINTS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO SOUTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES
LATER TODAY.

AN OVERCAST LAYER AT 2 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET WAS PRESENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA. THIS WAS CAUSED BY AN INVERSION OF WARM AIR OVER THE
COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A CLOUDY SKY SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MIDDAY.

SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS RATHER WEAK TODAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARIES PRESENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON
THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLUVANNA COUNTY TO JUST NORTH OF RICHMOND TO CHESAPEAKE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUN AND MON...UPR-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT WITH SFC HI
PRES REMAINING OFFSHORE WITH A PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE LWR 90S
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.

DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THE
MAIN SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO THE TWO
INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. FOR SUNDAY AFTN...HAVE 30
PERCENT POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES NORTH TO NEAR
CAROLINE COUNTY AND ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...MAINLY FROM THE
GFS...OF SOME PCPN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
HAVE SLGT TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS. CHANCES FOR PCPN
ARE 30 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTN WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST TO TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG
TUE BEFORE FALLING A FEW DEGREES WED-FRI (ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK).

AFTER A FAIRLY HIGH CHC FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MON EVENING (~40%)...TUE
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHC FOR
TUE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER
HOWEVER...AS FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AND BEST
LIFT/FORCING REMAIN N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CARRY 20-30%
MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC WED AS THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO
PUSH THROUGH. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WED.

BY WED NIGHT-FRI...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST
DOES PLACE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT
DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG 85-90 F THU/FRI
(COOLEST ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE). GENLY DRY /PARTLY-MOSTLY
SUNNY BUT WILL KEEP DIURNAL AFTN/EARLY EVENING 20% POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT IS ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. CIGS GENERALLY BKN-OVC WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL...WITH
A FEW LOCALES OVER THE PIEDMONT DROPPING TO MVFR. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BTWN 10-12Z AT KRIC/KPHF/KECG. NO IFR ANTICIPATED.

FOR TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST AS FLOW VEERS
TO THE S-SE AOB 10 KT. MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED IN BUFR
SOUNDINGS WILL RESULTING IN A SCT-LOCALLY BROKEN 4-6K FT AGL DECK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE TODAY-THIS EVENING.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS SRN VA...INCLUDING
KRIC/KORF/KECG.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE,
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 10 KT PERSISTS OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST TODAY AS FLOW
VEERS TO THE S-SE OVER THE WATER. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE...REMAINING SUB-SCA. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL EFFECTS WITH S-SE FLOW CHANNELING UP
THE BAY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KT (AND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT). HOWEVER...HEADLINES NOT
ANTICIPATED. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT...BUT PERSISTENT S-SE FLOW
COULD PUSH SEAS TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO
3-4 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT...BUT MAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO REACH THE WATERS TUES NIGHT-WEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...MAS/LSA
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM





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