Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CST THRU TNGT. EXPECTING
VRBL CLOUDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY. FA WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN BNDRY JUST OFF THE CST AND STRONG UPR LVL LO
PRES DIVING SSE FM THE WRN GRT LKS INTO THE OH VALLEY. WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY 20-40% POPS INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...INCLUDING
A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS. HIGHEST CHCS WILL BE OVR NW AND NRN COUNTIES
WHERE DEEPER LO LVL MOISTURE/BEST FORCING WILL BE. HI TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 60S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO THE UPR 60S TO
LWR 70S ELSEWHERE IN CNTRL/ERN VA...AND LWR TO MID 70S IN NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT ACRS THE FA TNGT THRU FRI...AS THE UPR LVL
LO PRES TRACKS SE INTO NC (THU) THEN SITS INVOF ERN VA (FRI).
CONTD VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS THROUGH THE PD...ALG W/ BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER INLAND DURING THU
AS THE LO MOVES INTO NC. NR THE CST...WILL HAVE POPS MNLY 20-40%.
WILL HAVE MNLY 40-60% POPS THU NGT/FRI. LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S. HI TEMPS WED WILL RANGE FM 60-70F. LO TEMPS LOWS THU NGT
WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30% NNE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH POPS 20% W...30-40% E. FORECAST LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S
FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GENERALLY
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS A DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS NE NC. ONLY A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN...AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LAST FOR
MOST OF TODAY. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING (VFR CONDS) LATE THIS AFTN/EVE
WILL BE BRIEF WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING IFR CONDS RETURNING
TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THE WEEKEND IS A
TOSS UP ATTM AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES OVER NE NC. ANOTHER LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION
OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W AND NW BECOMING NE ON THU ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE
BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CREATE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STARTING
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



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