Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061602
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1102 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CRNT TRENDS. INCRSD
CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SKIES AVGG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY GIVEN THE AMT
OF HIGH CLDS. ALSO LWR TMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON 12Z SNDGS.

PVS DSCN:
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN VA AND EASTERN NC. SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE AREA BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. SEASONABLY
CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH READINGS
ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S CLOSER TO THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. FOR
TODAY...DRY/QUIT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE SFC HIGH
REMAINING ACRS THE REGION...THEN DRIFTING OFF TO THE NE AND OFF
THE DELMARVA LATER THIS AFTN. DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WINDS THAN YESTERDAY...GENLY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE S 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN
WELL INLAND (REMAINING ONSHORE FROM THE E/NE NEAR THE COAST).
HIGHS TODAY WILL AVG IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND ERN
SHORE...TO THE UPPER 40S INLAND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME
TO TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY/DRY THIS EVENING ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH (CURRENTLY OVER EAST
TEXAS)...PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TRACKING EAST
ACRS FLORIDA SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SPAWN ANTHR STORM OFF THE FLA
COAST TONIGHT WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED EAST OF THE
CAROLINA COAST SUN. THE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE
ALONG THE CSTL TROF SUN NIGHT THEN WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE VA CAPES
MON. THE LATEST NAM REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE TRACK
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS. STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A
MARINE/WIND IMPACT FOR THE AKQ CWA...A MAJOR IMPACT FOR MARINE
INTERESTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD SUN NIGHT/MON.

FOR SENSIBLE WX...WILL FAVOR THE SOMEWHAT DRIER SOLUTIONS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF ALTHOUGH EVEN THE NAM GENLY KEEPS NW 1/2 OF THE CWA DRY
ON SUN. GRIDS WILL INDICATE CHC POPS SPREADING NE ALONG THE NC
AND SERN VA COAST THRU THE DAY SUN WITH CHC POPS SPRDG NORTH ALONG
THE DELMARVA SUN NITE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRT PCPN TYPE AS
RAIN. HIGHS SUN MID 40S IN THE CLOUDS ACRS THE FAR SE...TO AROUND
50 F FARTHER INLAND. LOWS SUN NITE 30-35 F...EXCEPT 35-40 F ALONG
THE COAST. THE FAVORED TRACK SUGGESTS A LITTLE LESS WIND THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE STRNG / GUSTY N WINDS
ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH SUN AND SUN NITE OVR
VA BCH / NRN OUTER BANKS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDRESSED THIS IN THE
HWO.

THE OCEAN LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE MON WITH THE NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY
DIVING SE FROM THE GT LAKES AND OHIO VLLY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH THERE
PRBLY WILL BE A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW...MSTR QUICKLY INCRS WEST TO EAST BY AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
POPS MOST AREAS BY MON AFTN. AS THE MSTR FROM THE UPR LVL LOW
CROSSES THE MTS. PCPN TYPE REMAINS LIQUID WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45-50 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEADING
EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERMAL
PROFILES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE
STARTING TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS COLD AIR ARRIVES AND THEN IS SLOW
TO LEAVE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE N/NW PORTION OF THE FA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME...AS A POTENT VORT LOBE ROTATES THRU. THE WX THEN LOOKS
DRY NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPR 30S NW TO THE
LOW/MID 40S SE. HIGHS WED/THU MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN MORNG...AS HI PRES BLDS ACRS
THE AREA AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST. EXPECT INCREASING HI CLOUDS
LATER TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...ESPLY OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC AS LO
PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE FL/GA CST TNGT INTO SUN MORNG. STRONG OR
VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED OVR SE VA AND NE NC FM
LATE SUN MORNG INTO MON MORNG...AS THE LO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS NE WELL OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING A CHC FOR RAIN SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT MAINLY AT ECG/ORF.

OUTLOOK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON THRU TUE ACRS THE AREA. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS HAS EXPIRED AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW 5 FT. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TODAY AND THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO
THE MARINE AREA ON SUN. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC COAST BY
LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUN MORNING THRU
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MARINE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUDNDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH
REMAINS UP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND
THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (STARTING 10 AM SUN FOR N-NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 40-45 KT). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND WILL PROBABLY HOIST THE
NEXT WAVE OF SCA`S THIS AFTERNOON AFTER WE GET ANOTHER LOOK AT
THE MODELS DURING TODAY. HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST
S) FOR NOW...AND THAT MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE GIVEN EVENTUAL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO EARLY TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED FOR THE NOTTOWAY AT STONY CREEK.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ633-634-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ


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