Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 231712
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm temperatures will continue today, but with slightly
lower humidity levels. An upper level disturbance will bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially from
the Capital District northward. It will turn cooler and less humid
for Sunday, with high pressure building in. Very warm
temperatures, increasing humidity and chances for showers and
thunderstorms return for Monday as a frontal boundary approaches
from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convection developing in the southern Adirondacks into VT.
Convection tracking southeast and based on area surface
temperatures and dew points...some instability but not as much as
yesterday. Considerable dry air aloft, so will keep an eye for
elevated cores that could descend rapidly for strong winds.
Convection looks to be confined to the southern Adirondacks,
heading toward the Lake George Saratoga region, maybe just
skimming northern parts of the Capital District...and then into
VT...maybe just skimming the northern Berkshires.

More coverage of storms in southern Canada looks to be tracking
southeast through mid/northern VT and may just clip northeast of
Lake George and parts of southern VT later this afternoon and
evening. No other development seen further west and south, so most
of the convection is associated with trailing upper dynamics and
one last surge of dryer surface dewpoints.

Temperatures have reached forecast highs in the 80s to lower
90s...and based on area 12Z soundings...temperatures may rise
another degree or two. So, some minor changes to rain
chances/coverage, temperatures and sky cover based on current data
and trends through this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Convection should diminish rather quickly after sunset this
evening, as the aforementioned disturbance moves east into New
England and instability decreases due to loss of diurnal heating.
Large scale subsidence will increase overnight, as a ridge of high
pressure at the surface and aloft builds in from the Great Lakes.

Sunday will feature plenty of sunshine and dry conditions as the
ridge moves overhead. Winds will be lighter than Saturday, with
noticeably lower humidity levels as dewpoints drop into the 50s.
Temperatures will still be slightly above normal, but with the
lower humidity.

Clouds will then gradually increase Sunday night, as a warm front
approaches from the Ohio Valley. A few showers with a rumble of
thunder will be possible late across areas mainly north and west
of the Capital District, but much of the area will remain dry.

Monday looks to have a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms, as a weakening cold front approaches from the west.
The degree of cloud cover and resulting instability is highly
questionable at this time, so while some strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out it is quite uncertain how the convection will
evolve. Moisture return will be fairly robust, with dewpoints
creeping towards 70 during the afternoon and PWATS rising to
around 1.75 inches. Any storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall, but will mention only chance pops at this time due to
uncertainty with coverage/timing. With hot temperatures and
humidity returning, heat indices could approach 100 degrees in the
mid Hudson Valley, so will mention this in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement that the flow will be rather flat/zonal
across the region through the middle of the week with an upper
level low over Hudson`s Bay with short waves rotating about.
Expecting fair weather with highs running 5 to 10 degrees above
normal and lows only a bit above normal.

A trough is expected to develop as we end through the latter part
of the week into the weekend as a stronger short wave rotates
about the upper low as it moves gradually eastward and additional
short wave energy enters the flow from the Pacific Northwest. The
upper flow is expected to end up paralleling surface boundaries
and waves of low pressure are then expected to move along the
boundaries. At this time it appears a boundary should end up
located to our south across the mid-Atlantic region with another
moving in from the northwest which is anticipated to become nearly
stationary over our region back across the Great Lakes Region.
This set up will result in unsettled weather and a low confidence
forecast as the timing of the individual short waves varies
amongst the guidance and will impact the forecast. Have chances
pops for Thursday through Friday. The amount of instability that
will be present is very uncertain also as it be highly dependent
on the amount of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
across a portion of the Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga region
as yet another short wave trough approaches and moves across the
region. Have indicate threat for convection in KGFL and KALB TAFs
with a TEMPO group for KGFL and VCSH for KALB as the better chances
for storms will at KGFL. Further south, no mention of convection at
this time.

Outside any convection VFR conditions are expected through the
evening with MVFR fog developing overnight (especially where
precipitation does occur).

Westerly winds will remain with gusts in the teens to lower 20s.
Winds will shift more to the northwest late this afternoon. Winds
will weaken in the evening becoming light and variable to calm for
the overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm temperatures will continue today, but with slightly
lower humidity levels. An upper level disturbance will bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially from
the Capital District northward. It will turn cooler and less humid
for Sunday, with high pressure building in. Very warm
temperatures, increasing humidity and chances for showers and
thunderstorms return for Monday as a frontal boundary approaches
from the west.

Minimum relative humidity values will be around 35 to 50 percent
this afternoon, increasing to between 90 and 100 percent late
tonight. RH values will drop to around 30 to 40 percent Sunday
afternoon.

Winds today will be northwest around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
20 mph, decreasing to 5 to 10 mph tonight. Winds on Sunday will be
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from
around the Capital District northward this afternoon, with brief
local downpours. Basin-average rainfall will be light due to
limited coverage.

Dry weather is expected tonight through Sunday, although another
cold front will bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday.

Dry conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds back into the region.

Flows continue to be below normal for mid to late July at many
locations in the Hydro Service Area, especially our western New
England counties.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Yesterday Friday, July 22nd was the warmest day of the summer
across the local area with all 5 of our ASOS locations hitting 90+
degrees, even at Pittsfield MA.

Here is a look at the number of 90+ degree days so far this year,
what is normal and the most that has occurred in a year.

Albany NY:
2016: 8 days
Normal: 10 days
Most: 32 days in 1955
Note: Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY:
2016: 7 days
Normal: 6 days
Most: 22 days in 1988
Note records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY:
2016: 14 days
Normal: 15 days
Most: 30 days in numerous year most recently 2010, 2005 and 2002
Note: Records date back to 1949, however data is
missing from January 1993 through July 2000

Pittsfield MA:
2016: 1 day
Normal: 2 days
Most: 7 days in 2010
Based on data dating back to 2000

Bennington VT:
2016: 2 days
Normal: 3 days
Most: 9 days in 2010
Based on data dating back to 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...IAA

www.weather.gov/albany



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.