Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 220136
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
936 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Tropical
Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and
will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for
eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures could
reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge
strengthens overhead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT, slightly drier air in the process of working
into the region from the north and east. Dewpoints will continue
to drop into the 50s overnight. Still dealing with areas of high
level cirrus clouds along the far northwest periphery of Jose.

Despite cirrus around tonight, the drier air will result in
cooler temperatures than recent nights with lows mainly in the
50s with some cooler 40s in the Adirondacks. As a result, not
much fog development expected as well due to a slight northerly
breeze persisting in most spots, along with slight dry advection
near the top of the boundary layer.

Friday should feature plenty of filtered sunshine through high
clouds similar to today, but expected less in the way of low
stratus clouds due to drier air in place. Temperatures will once
again be above normal but with lower humidity levels (dewpoints
in the 40s and 50s). A northerly breeze around 5-10 mph will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tranquil conditions expected Friday night with a ridge of high
pressure at the surface and aloft entrenched over the region.
Continued dry air mass in place will result in low temps
similarly cool to Thursday night. There could be more fog
development though in favored locations near bodies of water, as
winds speeds will be lighter than recent nights.

The heat is on for the weekend, with temperatures expected to
soar into the lower/mid 80s on Saturday and even warmer upper
80s expected on Sunday. The upper level ridge is forecast to
strengthen further, with the 500 mb 590 decameter height contour
forecast to be nearby. These anomalous 500 mb height values are
+1 to +3 STDEV for late September. No precipitation is expected
through the period with strong subsidence associated with the
ridge.

Low temps will be warmer Saturday night, as low level moisture
starts to increase. More fog development will be possible as
well, especially near bodies of water.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With Hurricane Maria expected to take a similar path as Jose up
the western Atlantic, we will continue to experience high
pressure and subsidence, resulting in unseasonably warm
temperatures and dry conditions, with high readings Sunday
starting out in the near- record territory of upper 70 to upper
80s. The good news is the heat won`t last. A backdoor cold front
will wash out over our region while Maria cools the land by
dragging in ocean air off the North Atlantic on an easterly
flow. The result will be daytime highs becoming cooler from one
day to the next.

By Thursday...highs will range from only the upper 60s to
around 80 degrees, still much above normal. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 50s to mid 60s range Monday and Tuesday nights,
and the mid 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday nights...some
15 degrees above normal. As far as precipitation goes, showers
from Maria could reach as far as the southern Vermont, the
Capital region, and the Catskills on south Tuesday night. A
relatively dry cold front from the northwest will sweep through
Wednesday night, but a Great Lakes trof could keep showers going
in the western Adirondacks through Thursday.

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts
on Hurricane Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High level cirrus clouds from Jose are circulating across the
region and will continue to do so as Jose lingers south of Cape
Cod in weak steering currents. Some radiational fog may develop
late tonight at KGFL as is the norm during fall fog season,
although may be more intermittent compared to recent nights due
to a slight breeze and drier air working south and west through
the night.

North to northeast winds should average 8 KT or less overnight,
and increase slightly to 8-12 KT Friday morning.

Low level wind shear is possible at KPOU and KPSF between
roughly 08Z-13Z/Fri, as surface winds decrease to less than 8
KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL remain from the north to
northeast at 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Friday to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Tropical
Storm Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod, and
will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for
eastern New York and western New England. Temperatures could
reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge
strengthens overhead.

Relative humidity values will increase to around 80 to 100
percent tonight, then decrease to minimum values of 30 to 45
percent Friday afternoon. RH values Friday night will increase
to between 80 and 100 percent.

Winds tonight through Friday night will be northerly around 5
to 10 mph. Some higher gusts near 20 mph will be possible during
the daylight hours, especially over the higher terrain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into next week as high pressure dominates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures will be possible Sunday and Monday.

Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 24/25:

Albany NY: September 24th/Sunday: 87 degrees 1961 September
25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY: September 24th/Sunday: 86 degrees 1961 September
25th/Monday: 84 degrees 2007 Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY: September 24th/Sunday: 91 degrees 1959 September
25th/Monday: 89 degrees 1970 Records date back to 1949, however
data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/JPV
CLIMATE...


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