Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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859
FXUS61 KALY 311011
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
610 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region
today. High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control
into Thursday with dry conditions and comfortable humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 530 AM EDT...Clouds lingered across the southern third of
the fa with mainly clear skies elsewhere. These clouds are
expected to dissipate in the next few hours as high pressure takes
over. Temperatures early this morning were in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

A ridge of high pressure will build southward today from Canada
bringing plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions. It will
still be another warm day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. It
will also be quite breezy as north to northwest winds of 5 to 15
mph with gusts to 25 mph will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather through the
mid week period as it moves across our region and eventually
slides eastward off the New England coast. Expect generally clear
to partly cloudy skies through Thursday morning with increasing
clouds Thursday afternoon. A cold front will approach from the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday night bringing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms Thursday evening as Showalter indices approach
zero with showers becoming more numerous during the second half of
Thursday night.

Lows tonight are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with
highs on Wednesday in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows Wednesday night
are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with Highs on
Thursday in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be
in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Trend toward an unsettled pattern into the weekend and early next
week as upper trough re-establishes itself across the Great Lakes
and northeast corridor.

We begin this long term with the passage of a cold front Friday with
a round of showers.  At this time, instability parameters look less
than ideal for most of the region to preclude the mention of thunder
at this time.  Clouds and the showers should limit temperatures too
with mainly U60s to L70s for the region.

A brief period of tranquil and near seasonable temperatures are
expected Friday night into Saturday as a weak yet progressive
surface high and short wave ridge moves across.  So we will keep the
weather dry under partly cloudy conditions.

Latest NCEP model suite and international guidance point toward
increasing amplification of the upper pattern as a strong upper
impulse from Alberta dives southeast toward the Great Lakes region.
In turn this will aid in the entrainment of sub-tropical moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico into the mid-Atlantic and northeast.  So
increasing clouds Saturday night with increasing PoPs overnight into
Sunday.  This will keep temperatures below normal with the potential
for above normal but needed rainfall for the region.

Rather excellent agreement among the models heading into Monday as
the main moisture advection transverses offshore but leaving behind
a cool and relatively moist cyclonic flow to keep the low chance
PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through Tuesday daylight hours, VFR conditions as high pressure
ridge axis builds into the region. Westerly winds will increase with
some gusts to around 20kts.

Tonight, with a weak frontal approach from the north, some mid level
clouds may accompany its approach.  So we have introduced few-sct
clouds but still remaining VFR at this time.   Winds will be light
and variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region
today. High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control
into Thursday with dry conditions and comfortable humidity levels.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 50 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 90 percent tonight, and drop to 30 to
45 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph today, light and variable tonight, and east to northeast
around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build into our region with dry weather
continuing through the middle of the week. The next chance for
showers will return late in the week as a frontal boundary
approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany



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