Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
FXUS61 KALY 200545
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1245 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017
The mild temperatures will continue through the weekend.
Higher pressure will build in tonight into Friday resulting
fair weather. A disturbance in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will bring some light precipitation to the area late
in the day Friday and Friday night with mainly as rain. However
across portions of the southern Adirondacks into the Lake
George region and in parts of southern Vermont freezing rain is
possible. Fair weather returns for much of the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Inversion and moisture layer supporting the cloud cover is very
apparent in area 00Z soundings. Satellite trends show some
clearing in central and eastern New England but based on the low
level flow, clearing will not likely make it west into the
Berkshires. Extensive clouds in NY and CT not showing signs of
mixing out either. Made some adjustments to cloud cover and
raised a few temperatures based on expected lingering cloud
cover through daybreak. Temperatures remaining steady or may
fall a couple of degrees at most, in the 30s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With high pressure in control for the first part of tomorrow,
some locations may see some breaks in the clouds, mainly south
of the Capital District. The clouds will be most persistent
across the high terrain where moisture will continue to be
trapped under an inversion. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will
top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s but this is highly
dependent on cloud cover.
Clouds then begin increasing again from the southwest as a weak
negatively tilted shortwave moves towards the region tomorrow
evening. This shortwave will be weakening as it runs into the
upper level ridge and isn`t expected to have much moisture
associated with it. Despite the lack of moisture/dynamics, some
light rain will still be possible tomorrow night into Saturday
morning, especially for southern locations. Some spots that drop
below freezing could see some light freezing rain, mainly
across the western Adirondacks and high terrain of western New
England, but QPF amounts should remain light. Low temperatures
will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s area-wide.
Any lingering precipitation will come to an end Saturday
morning as surface high pressure/upper level ridging moves back
into the region. This will lead to a fairly mild and mostly dry
weekend with temperatures reaching the low 40s to low 50s on
Saturday and the upper 30s to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday
night are expected in the 30s. Precipitation associated with
the next major storm system arrives on our doorstep Sunday
evening, bringing rain to the lower elevations and a wintry mix
to the higher elevations.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active pattern continues with basically a broad trough across the
CONUS. There is general agreement for a storm system will impact
the eastern seaboard early next week originating over the deep
south. However they are differences in the details regarding the
track and strength of the system. At this time it appears the
surface low should pass to our southeast and be near or off the
coast. Temperatures across the region will be mild ahead of the
system so in addition to snow rain will be possible especially
during the day and at the lower elevations. There is uncertainty
to the precipitation amounts and types; with heavy rainfall and
snowfall are possibilities. Have added mention of the storm to
our hazardous weather outlook.
Guidance indicates ridging will try and build in between this
system and the next one approaching from the Plains but it would
short-lived. This next system is expected to weaken as it heads
into the Great Lakes region. Again will be cold air being drawn
into the region snow and rain showers are expected. If fact
continued above normal temperatures expected.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure over the region both at the surface and
aloft will lead to dry conditions overnight and through much of
the day. However, low level moisture is trapped beneath a
strengthening inversion aloft, so clouds are expected to remain
in place through the period.
Will trend towards a more pessimistic ceiling forecast due to
widespread cigs currently in place and not much opportunity for
mixing over the next 24 hours. Cigs will be mainly in the MVFR
range well into the morning, with slight improvement to VFR
levels later this morning into the afternoon. Cigs expected to
lower again after dark, as a weakening upper level disturbance
approaches from the mid Atlantic region. Will mention VCSH at
KALB/KPSF/KGFL this evening, with prevailing -SHRA developing at
KPOU. Again, conditions are expected to be mainly MVFR from
around 00Z-06Z Saturday.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming southeast
around 3-6 kt during the day.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of DZ.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Recent precipitation over the past few days has allowed for
some minor rises on rivers and stream across the region. Over
the next few days, mainly dry conditions are expected through
the weekend. Some light precipitation is possible Friday evening
into Saturday morning, but QPF amounts will be a tenth of an
inch or less. Daytime temperatures will be above normal,
although overnight lows will fall around or just above freezing
for most areas. As a result, some very minor snowmelt may occur
in a few areas, but it will likely have little impact on rivers
Widespread precipitation looks to occur early next week, but
there are still questions regarding the exact precipitation
type and amounts. The latest MMEFS don`t show any flooding on
area rivers and streams, although some river rises are likely to
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our