794
FXUS61 KALY 160641
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
241 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and increasingly humid conditions will prevail today into
Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
tonight and continue Thursday ahead of an approaching upper
level disturbance and cold front. Cooler and less humid conditions
will follow in the wake of the front for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Dangerous heat and humidity today with heat index values
   ranging from 95 to 100 throughout portions of the Hudson and
   Mohawk River Valleys, eastern Windham County VT and northwest
   Connecticut, where a Heat Advisory is now in effect.

 - Additional Heat Advisories possible for Thursday with heat
   index values potentially reaching the mid/upper 90s.

 - Scattered showers/thunderstorms develop tonight and continue
   Thursday, with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
   Thursday.

Discussion:

As of 240 AM EDT, mainly clear skies with patchy fog developing
across the region, with temps ranging from the upper 50s across
the southern Adirondacks, to the lower/mid 70s across the mid
Hudson Valley.

After any patchy fog/low clouds burn off shortly after sunrise,
expect mostly sunny and hot conditions today, along with
increasing humidity levels. High temps should reach the upper
80s to lower/mid 90s in most areas, and with dewpoints climbing
into the mid 60s to lower 70s, heat indices (Feels-Like temps)
should reach 95-100 in many valley areas this afternoon. We have
expanded the heat advisory into eastern Windham County in
southern VT, and all of Litchfield County in northwest CT where
heat indices in the mid/upper 90s are expected.

Weak dewpoint boundary will be lifting northward this afternoon,
and may support enough lift combined with terrain to produce
isolated showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon across
portions of the eastern Catskills/Helderbergs, perhaps into
portions of the Capital Region around sunset.

For tonight, the combination of approaching shortwave from Ohio
Valley region and leading edge of low level wind max along with
some elevated instability should support at least scattered
showers/thunderstorms, especially areas west of I-87. PWAT`s
increase to 1.75-2", so heavy downpours will be possible. In
addition, can not completely rule out isolated strong wind gusts
given some soundings suggesting ML CAPES up to 1500 J/kg. SPC
has placed areas mainly west of I-87 within a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms due to this low probability.

Clusters of showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday
morning as the aforementioned shortwave and low level
convergence moves across the region. A break is then expected
later Thursday morning through early afternoon, before scattered
thunderstorms potentially redevelop ahead of approaching cold
front. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding coverage
of afternoon thunderstorms, as some CAMS have little to no
additional afternoon convection, while others have scattered to
numerous coverage. This leads to a highly conditional threat for
severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, as mid level wind
fields become rather strong with 0-6 km shear increasing to
30-40 KT, strongest across the southern Adirondacks. There is
also some veering to the low/mid level wind profiles. So, if
convection develops, it could initially be discrete with some
supercell development before potentially merging into
clusters/lines producing strong wind gusts. Thus, multi-mode
convective hazards will be possible assuming convection develops
despite some mid level capping and weak upper level divergence.
SPC has placed our region within a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms due to the existing uncertainties in
coverage/development of convection, despite favorable
instability and shear.

It will also be hot and humid once again, and heat indices
should once again reach the mid/upper 90s for some elevations
below 1000 feet. Additional heat advisories will likely be
needed for some areas.

Some lingering showers/thunderstorms may occur across western
New England Thursday evening, otherwise clear to partly cloudy
skies later Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cooler and much less humid for Friday-Saturday in the wake of
the frontal passage with highs in the mid 70s to lower/mid 80s,
and overnight lows mainly in the 50s, with some 40s possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Shortwave and surface low pressure tracking across the Great
Lakes and Quebec looks to bring chances for
showers/thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.

Fair and less humid conditions are then expected in the wake of
this system for Monday through at least early Tuesday. Some
showers from an approaching warm front could reach western areas
later Tuesday or Tuesday night. Seasonably warm with highs in
the lower/mid 80s in valleys and 75-80 for higher terrain, with
lows in the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...Currently VFR conditions at all terminals as
of 1:00 AM EDT. However, patchy fog is expected to develop at
GFL/PSF with periods of IFR to LIFR vsbys through shortly after
sunrise. Low confidence on whether or not any fog/mist forms at
ALB/POU, but have kept brief tempo groups for some MVFR vsbys to
indicate the possibility. Fog dissipates within a few hours of
sunrise, then VFR conditions prevail through the day with FEW to SCT
mid-level clouds around. Skies become BKN to OVC with cigs lowering
to around 4000 ft after sunset tonight, with an upper disturbance
potentially bringing some showers and thunderstorms for the last few
hours of the TAF period. Confidence in timing/location of storms and
how widespread they will be is low, so will include prob30 groups at
all terminals and refine with future TAF issuances. Light and
variable winds through the rest of the night increase from the south
at 5-10 kt by late morning, continuing through the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ001-013.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ063>066.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ038-040-041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-
     084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VTZ015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Main