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000
FXUS61 KALY 010245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. AS SEEN
WITH THE LATEST CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS
ANTICIPATED AS LIGHT WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...INTO THE 10
BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...COLDEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A
SMALL BUT POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 700
AM MONDAY FOR HERKIMER COUNTY...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD
HILLS...THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEAK AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRIVING THE SNOW ACROSS
OUR REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TAPERING OFF BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES ELSEWHERE. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN OF 13 TO 1. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. DUE TO
MIXING...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 30S
IN THE HUDSON/CT VALLEYS BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THU-SAT AS YET
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE INITIAL
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING WEST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION FOR TUE NT/WED. DESPITE THE WARMTH DEVELOPING
ALOFT...IT MAY BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ABUNDANT SNOWPACK AND COLD GROUND
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TOUGHEST LOCATIONS TO DISLODGE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/SE ADIRONDACKS
AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGIONS...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SE VT
AND EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

HERE ARE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

TUE NT...THE INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PROPELS INTO THE REGION
ALOFT DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 50-70 KT...WITH
OUR REGION MOST LIKELY AT THE LEADING EDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIFT...AND BURST OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TUE EVENING. THEN...A TRANSITION TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING...WITH PLAIN
RAIN EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK FOR THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
AT LEAST SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET TO THE NORTH. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WHEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET AS MAIN P-TYPE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY IN NY AND I-90 IN MA. IN THESE AREAS...A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...LEADING TO
SNOWFALL AMTS IN THE HIGH END ADVISORY...TO PERHAPS LOW END WARNING
RANGE...WITH MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO REACH INTO THE 0.10-
0.25 RANGE...ESP NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT FOR ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING
BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF. TEMPS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS...GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND UPPER 20S MOST OTHER AREAS BY DAYBREAK WED.

WED...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SPOTTY WED MORNING...BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WED
MORNING...WITH PRECIP IN ALL AREAS BECOMING VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT BY
WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WED MAY REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHILE ONLY REACHING THE 35-40 RANGE FURTHER N. TEMPS SHOULD
FALL FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST
DROPS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS.

WED NT-THU...SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WAVE FORMS ON
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...AND PASSES JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INTO WED NT/EARLY THU. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SUCH
LOCATIONS AS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND
SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FOR WED
NT/THU AM...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY ON THU INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS.

THU NT-SAT...MORE ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRI NT/SAT...WHEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NW. THIS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ADIRODNACKS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
MAINLY TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SAT DUE TO POSSIBLE DEEPER
MIXING WITH A POTENTIAL FROPA. THU NT/FRI AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI NT/SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/SUN.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED
COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY
WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV