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000
FXUS61 KALY 011754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE...AND A GROUND HOG DAY STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  BLUSTERY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1253 PM EST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS BRIEFLY RIDGING IN
FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.  THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST
OF MOST OF THE REGION. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM NICELY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TO THE U20S AND LOWER TO M30S.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD
OF THE GROUND HOG DAY SNOWSTORM. SOME OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL MAY WORK
INTO THE EXTREME SRN PART OF THE REGION BY 00Z...HOWEVER...AS
SUPPORTED BY OUR 12Z ALB SOUNDING...THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ARE VERY
DRY WHICH WILL DELAY THE SNOWFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE
INITIALLY.

BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HIRES WRF/HRRR THE ONSET OF THE SNOW HAS
BEEN DELAYED A FEW HOURS. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY COMMENCE PRIOR
TO 7 PM. WE STILL THINK THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE BTWN 7
PM AND 10 PM OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
TACONICS AND NW CT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN
INCH OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION ONCE WE GO PAST 00Z MONDAY. LEADING UP TO 00Z MONDAY...CLOUDS
WILL BE MOVING IN AND CEILINGS WILL START TO DROP AS A STORM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES STARTING AT KPOU AROUND 06Z MONDAY  AND PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ONSET OF THIS STORM WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH ICE
PELLETS AT TIMES AT KPOU AROUND 15Z MONDAY BUT SHOULD PREDOMINATELY
REMAIN AS SNOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM 12Z TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11