Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 280610
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY..BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY
ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MID LEVELS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
TOMORROW...AND STILL WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL BE DRIER THAN TODAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
AREAS MAINLY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. IN THESE EASTERN AREAS...HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE CELL IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 35 MPH.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT..HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...PROVIDING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
.
FRI 500HPA HGTS/RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILD OVER RGN AND SLIDE OFFSHORE...AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVR RGN UNDER IT...BFR SLIDING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
FINE SUMMER DAY AS HIGH TEMPS REACH THE LOW AND MID 80S IN MOST
AREAS WITH UPPER 70S IN THE HIR TRRN.

FRI NT AND SAT THE RIDGE AT ALL LVLS SLIDES OFFSHORE AND AN INCR
S-SW FLOW OF INCRG MOISTURE SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TD INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S WITH VRBL TO INCR CLOUDS. DURING THE
DAY SAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN TIMING BOTH THE APPROACHING
CDFNT AND THE THREAT OF TSTMS/SHRA. THE PVS ECMWF/GEM HOLD THE
BULK OF THE PCPN THREAT OFF TILL LATE SAT...THE NAM/GFS BRING
THREAT INTO RGN BY AFTN. PVS FCST...HPC FAVORED THIS SLOWER TIMING
OF PCPN THREAT AND CDFNT AND GIVEN ITS GENERAL PARALLEL NATURE TO
UPR FLOW THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. SO SAT WILL BE VRBL CLOUDY...WARM
AND HUMID WITH INCRG CHC TSTMS.

SAT NT AND SUN MOST OF THE MDL SUITE BRINGS A CDFNT SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE FCA...BUT THE SCENARIOS BEGIN SPREADING. THE GEM
STALLS IT IN THE MID ATLC WITH SFC LOW IN THE OH VLY RIPPLING E
ALONG IT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA PERSISTING INTO SUN NT. THE
ECMWF/GFS MOVES IT ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH FCA WITH CLEARING
IMPLIED N OF I90 CORRIDOR SUN NT. ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL BE
DETERMINED BY VERY SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THE 500HPA FLOW WHICH
REMAINS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

REGARDLESS...AFTER DAYS OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS...TEMPS WILL TURN
WELL BLO NORMAL SUN...UNDER CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO
FCA ASSOC WITH SFC HIGH OVER ONT/QB.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON...DEPENDING IF
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND LESS HUMID OTHER
AREAS...BEFORE HUMIDITY INCREASES AGAIN BY WED. TEMPS WILL BE AT
OR A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MAINLY IFR CIGS ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...ALONG
WITH VFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG. EXPECT THE MAINLY IFR TO OCCASIONALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 12Z. BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE TAF SITES...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 22Z. AFTER 22Z EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER ABOUT 14Z...THE WINDS
SHOULD PICKUP TO 8 TO 12 KTS...THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KTS AFTER THAT. AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT THROUGH FRI NT.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE
SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROUGHT LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMTS OF
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS GENERALLY RECEIVED ONE TENTH...TO ONE THIRD
OF AN INCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH COULD OCCUR.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU NT THROUGH FRI NT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LATE SAT
INTO SAT NT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA


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