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000
FXUS61 KALY 190030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EST WED DEC 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND
OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THIS BAND WILL SHIFT AND WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

ANOTHER TRICKY TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS COVER SHOULD
PERSIST WITH MID AND HIGHER CLOUDS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE TEENS. IF CLOUDS BREAK UP
AND WITH THE DEEP AND FRESHENED SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES WILL DROPPED FURTHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUMP MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE REGION
STARTING TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY PLACES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER WEEK. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FURTHER NORTH WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WITH ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK PARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. IT LOOKS TO LINE UP WITH
THE WSW FLOW...ALLOWING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG IT.
TIMING THESE IMPULSES IS STILL TOUGH AT THIS POINT...CAUSE INITIALLY
THESE IMPULSE WILL BE WEAK. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
CONVERGENCE PRODUCING LIFT...CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON ITS OWN. ANY WAVES WOULD ENHANCE THE LIFT.

THE GREAT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THE FRONT WOULD LIKELY STALL OVER
AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...MAYBE ETCHING
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...CLOUDS AND A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
FURTHER NORTH LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...THIS IS
WHEN OUR BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH...BUT THEY MIGHT FALL TL NEAR
FREEZING...A FEW POINTS LOWER FURTHER NORTH.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED IT COULD STILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW TO FALL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WHILE MAINLY LIQUID OR
FREEZING RAIN WOULD FALL FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. AT THIS
POINT...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP NORTH SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
TWO AT MOST. ANY GLAZE OF ICE SHOULD BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
STILL...WE WILL ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS OF POSSIBLE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN OUR HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AGREEMENT REMAINS THAT THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A STRONG WARM
ADVECTION EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STALL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE REGION AND HAS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS
WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST AND FARTHEST TO THE NORTH. THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF TRACK THE WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM WILL TAP DEEP MOISTURE AND HAS IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
QPF AMOUNTS...BUT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES IS BEING ADVERTISED BY
THE MODELS WITH HIGH AMOUNTS AROUND 3+ INCHES POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME
THE MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR MAINLY TO
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

INITIALLY AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION GETS GOING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
THINGS LOOK RIGHT NOW FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH 40S
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN THE RAIN AND RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT DUE TO THE
MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES SOME FLOODING COULD BE A PROBLEM INCLUDING
ICE JAMS ISSUES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

COLD AIR RUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CHANGING LINGERING
RAIN TO SNOW. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -18 TO -20 CELSIUS BY 12Z/TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

LOOKING WAY AHEAD AT CHRISTMAS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT AGREEMENT
ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE...COULD CAUSE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
LOOKING SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD...00Z/FRIDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL PERSIST WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS AT KPOU...KALB
AND KGFL THURSDAY. AT PSF...FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC WINTRY MIX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. CHC WINTRY MIX
EARLY AM.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. CHC FZRA KGFL.
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RN LIKELY.
LATE SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAXIMUM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT GENERALLY
REMAINING UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH WOULD BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN THIS WILL ALL BE SNOW.

OTHERWISE...LATER TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AND ICE WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS AND PARTICULARLY LAKES. IT WILL BE DRY.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS IS LIKELY THU INTO FRI...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK. SOME
SNOW MELT IS LIKELY BY THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH EVEN MILDER TEMPS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF HYDRO ISSUES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL/WASULA