Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 051054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TO BE PCPN FREE. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

WE WILL HAVE ONE FINAL DAY AND EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE NOT AS
GREAT AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TO CHANCE LEVELS MOST OTHER AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE FORECAST.

IT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80...EXCEPT IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE COMFORTABLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING...
EXPECT A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
SLOWLY INCREASE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES (ULSTER...DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD) ON FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE
PASSING OUT TO SEA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS...AND IF THEY CONTINUE WITH THAT TRACK...IT IS LIKELY EVEN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE REMOVED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEFORE THE WEATHER
TRENDS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE REMAINING
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE ALY FCST
AREA...AS WE START THE WEEKEND.  THE LATEST ECMWF HAS IT PASSING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS IS
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH.  THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION.  SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE IS FAVORED FOR SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF A SPRINKLE
OR SHOWER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE.
TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS...AND MID AND
U70S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PASSING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS NRN
NY AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  THIS DISTURBANCE MAY KICK OFF
SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY.  THE INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED...BUT A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDED WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S
TO L60S.  ALL AND ALL...SUNDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT WITH
TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE
HAS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FLATTER
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER
WITH THE SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THE COLD
FRONT.  WE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST
MONDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSE. IT IS
INTERESTING HOW THE LATEST GFS TRIES TO BUILD IN A SFC HIGH FROM THE
E/NE OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST.  THIS DAMPENS THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FCST FOR TUESDAY...AS THE ECMWF AND WPC HAVE THE FRONT
STALL NEAR THE COAST WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG IT.  THIS WOULD KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST...ESPECIALLY TUE-TUE
NIGHT.

HIGHS AND LOWS LOOK NEAR NORMAL...AS WE HEAD INTO MID-AUGUST WITH
50S TO L60S FOR LOWS...AND 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.  HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE CREEPING UP AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS AT KPSF WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z WITH
SUNSHINE AND MIXING FROM ALOFT.

EXPECT SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN SOME CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCT-BKN AT 5 KFT AGL. A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY TOWARDS
00Z/THU.

SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF
ESPECIALLY DEPENDING IF ANY RAINFALL OCCURS TODAY. OTHERWISE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN AFTER 06Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 8-13 KTS TOWARDS
NOONTIME WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS TOWARDS 00Z/THU....AND BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND RECOVER TO BETWEEN
80 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15
MPH TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 OR MORE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



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