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000
FXUS61 KALY 222333
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
733 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will move along a stationary front
located to our south bringing some showers to the southeastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut
mainly this evening. A stronger low pressure system approaching
from the Great Lakes region will bring more widespread showers
along with some thunderstorms to the area Sunday evening through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 733 PM EDT...The local area continues to be sandwiched
between stationary fronts, with one located to our north across
far northern New York and the another our south across in the
vicinity of I-80.

High pressure over Hudson Bay will shift southward with the
stationary front to our north weakening. There has been some
isolated thunderstorms ahead of this boundary across far
northern NY and northern/central VT, but this activity has
remained away from our area. With the loss of daytime heating,
this activity has been weakening.

Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure will continue to move eastward
along the boundary to our south. Some light rain showers have
been ongoing across central/southern areas this evening, but
with this precip falling out a mid-level clock deck, these
showers have been very light and spotty. Will continue to allow
for slight to chc POPs through the evening hours (especially for
far southern areas), but any rainfall will be rather light and
won`t amount to very much.

Partly cloudy conditions expected to develop across the northern
portion of the forecast area with mostly cloudy/cloudy across
the rest of the area. Lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Will be
muggy especially for areas south and east of the Capital District.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fair weather is expected for much of Sunday as the area is
between systems and some ridging builds in at the surface and
aloft. The ridging aloft will induced ahead of an approaching
trough and opening low. Guidance keeps this feature positively
tilted as it approaches and moves through. Showers will begin to
move into the area late in the day Sunday and will overspread
it at night with showers continuing through the day Monday. The
unstable air is expected to remain to our west and south with
some limited instability possible late Sunday night and Monday;
have slight chance for thunder during that time. The system will
be slow to move through so chances for showers linger through
most of Monday night with chances limited to the northeastern
portion of are into Tuesday.

Highs mainly in the 70s Sunday with some lower 80s up the Hudson
River Valley. Much cooler Monday with extensive cloud cover and
showers with highs only in the 60s with lower/mid 70s in the
mid Hudson Valley. Highs a bit warmer Tuesday in the mid 60s to
mid 70s; below normal by around 10 degrees.

Less muggy and more comfortable sleeping weather especially
Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will begin with dry weather on Wednesday,
transition to wet weather Thursday and Friday, then return to dry
conditions heading into the weekend.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...High pressure will build eastward from
the Great Lakes resulting in mostly clear skies and pleasant
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s
north of the Capital Region and upper 70s south of the Capital
Region.

Thursday and Friday...Expect unsettled weather with a chance of
thunderstorms on Thursday as cold front progresses to the southeast
out of Canada. This may become a system of interest in the upcoming
days as the GFS/ECMWF are suggesting modest instability, steep mid-
level lapse rates, and negative Showalter indices. On Friday, the
ECMWF has a low pressure system developing to our south and moving
Northeast while the GFS has a cyclone undergoing rapid cyclogenesis
off the east coast, therefore going with a chance of showers due to
the low confidence. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday...High pressure returns to the region bringing dry weather
and mostly clear skies. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to be in place for tonight into
tomorrow (Sunday).

Based on the latest IR satellite imagery, sky cover will
generally continue to be bkn-ovc tonight. Ceiling heights have
been around 10-15 kft this evening, but model soundings suggest
they may drop to around 5-10 kft overnight. There could be a few
light spotty rain showers this evening, but this should have
little to no impact on visibility, so will just mention it as a
VCSH for now. Light winds will be calm or remain light/variable
for overnight.

It should be dry for Sunday, although clouds will stick around,
with bkn cigs around 5 kft. Light NE winds will be around 5 kft
throughout the day. More widespread rain showers will return to
the region for Sunday night.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A wave of low pressure will move along a stationary front
located to our south bringing some showers to the southeastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut
mainly this evening. A stronger low pressure system approaching
from the Great Lakes region will bring more widespread showers
along with some thunderstorms to the area Sunday evening through
Monday with total rainfall amounts of around an inch anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrologic problems are not anticipated over the next few days.

A wave of low pressure will move along a stationary front
located to our south bringing some showers to the southeastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut
mainly this evening. The heavy rain will stay be to our south.

A stronger low pressure system approaching from the Great Lakes
region will bring more widespread showers along with some
thunderstorms to the area Sunday evening through Monday with
total rainfall amounts of around an inch anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA