Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 211439
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
939 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak mid level disturbance approaching from the west will bring
chances for light mixed wintry precipitation tonight. Mild
conditions are expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 930 AM EST, Mid level clouds beginning to increase across
the area with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to lower
30s. Even with increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to
climb into the low to mid 40s this afternoon. So have freshened
up the hourly temps and sky cover to reflect most recent obs. No
other changes were made to the forecast at this time.

Prev Disc, As of 615 AM EST...Mainly clear skies and cool
conditions prevailed across the forecast area with temperatures
mainly in the teens to lower 20s.

For Today...Expect at least partly sunny skies for a time this
morning before clouds increase this afternoon. There may also be
a slight chance of rain late in the day across the western
Adirondacks as a warm front moves into western New York. It will
be another relatively mild day with highs in the upper 30s to
mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight...Clouds will continue to overspread the region and
lower with time. There will be a chance of mainly rain across
the forecast area with a chance of freezing rain north and east
of the Greater Capital District. At this time it looks to be
brief and won`t have much areal coverage, so no advisory
headlines are planned at this time. Lows tonight will generally
be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with temperatures rising a few
degrees late at night.

On Wednesday...Expect morning clouds to give way to partly sunny
skies as a ridge of high pressure builds across the region. It
will be another mild day with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

For Wednesday night...Clouds will gradually increase although it
should remain dry. Another warm front will be lifting northeast
toward the region late at night. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 30s.

Thursday and Thursday night...Will see an increase in clouds and
chances of rainfall mainly across the northern half of the
region as several frontal boundaries cross the region. It will
continue to be very mild with highs on Thursday in the upper 40s
to mid 60s and lows Thursday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active period in the long term as a strong Pacific jet carves out
a deep, progressive trough over the center of the CONUS. Ridging
downstream of the trough over the eastern CONUS will continue to
favor temperatures well above normal through Saturday, becoming
closer to normal for Sunday and Monday.

As the trough becomes neutrally to negatively tilted from the
Central Plains to the Western Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, a
strong cyclone will develop and track well to our west, keeping us
solidly in the warm sector. There are still model discrepancies and
some ensemble spread as to the exact track, strength, and timing of
the surface low; but consensus is nearly unanimous that wintry
precipitation won`t be a concern for our local area. On Friday, some
rain showers may break out along the nose of a strengthening low-
level jet as moisture is lifted over a developing warm front. Still
disagreement on whether the frontal forcing will extend this far
east, so mainly just chance PoPs for now. A very warm airmass will
be in place with 925 mb temps up around +10C, although mixing will
be hampered by warm/moist advection and cloud cover. Chance PoPs
again Friday night when we are solidly in the warm sector with
little forcing, though there could be some drizzle/light showers
around.

Things get more interesting on Saturday as height falls associated
with the main upper wave approach and a sharp cold front crosses the
area. Rain is likely, possibly heavy at times, along the front with
plenty of moisture as PWATs near 1 inch. With the strong forcing and
Showalter values slightly negative, kept slight chance of thunder in
the forecast as well.

Current indications are that 850 mb temps drop around 20C in 24
hours from 18Z Saturday to 18Z Sunday (+8 to -12C). Some lake effect
snow showers may develop in the Western Adirondacks Saturday night
into Sunday. It appears there is potential for some strong winds
along and behind the front Saturday night into Sunday with the
strong cold advection, deep mixing, and surface pressure rises. Will
add to HWO. Large model spread by Monday as cyclonic upper flow
transitions to zonal. Slight chance PoPs with temps near normal for
now.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR expected into the evening hours tonight as high clouds
increase and gradually lower throughout the day. A weak system
has the potential to bring some light/MVFR rain showers after
03Z tonight. An outside shot for brief/light FZRA mainly at
KGFL/KPSF, but potential is too low to include in TAFs at this
time. There is also potential for IFR conditions to develop
late in the TAF period with moisture becoming trapped beneath a
lowering inversion. Low confidence at this time. Have included
prevailing IFR at KGFL/KPSF after 09Z for the time being and
will continue to monitor as more data becomes available.

Winds will be nearly calm early today, then increase late this
morning from the south to 5 to 10 kts with some gusts around 15
kt for KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro problems are expected into the middle of
this week with light precipitation forecast and overnight
temperatures falling into the upper 20s and 30s most nights.

Milder temperatures are expected for later this week. This will
cause snowmelt. Also, a large storm system may bring a moderate
to heavy rainfall on Saturday. The long term Meteorological
Model Ensemble River Forecasts /MMEFS/ suggest that significant
river rises along with some flooding is possible Saturday into
Sunday due to the combination of snow melt and locally heavy
rain.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/JVM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



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