Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 051747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...MUCH BETTER DAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN...UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. VSIBILITIES
WILL BE GOOD AND THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
4000-5000 FEET AGL. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH LITTLE OR NO
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE PROJECTED
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S BY DAYBREAK. IT
LOOKS AS IF KALB AND KPOU WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...SO FOR
NOW...WE LOWERED THEM ONLY TO MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KGFL AND KPSF...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET A LITTLE COOLER...SO
WE WENT IFR TO LIFR FOG/CIGS AT BOTH THOSE SITES (FROM 06Z-11Z).

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES AGAIN AROUND 4500
FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AGAIN ON MONDAY.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



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