Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
110 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread rainfall is expected by this evening. Broad scale
lift produced by a significant upper trough over the western US
and a surface trough draped across the eastern Dakotas will
produce scattered showers across southwest and south central
North Dakota this this afternoon. Showers will become more
widespread this evening and overnight as a shortwave trough ejects
across North Dakota and provides enhanced widespread lift in a
strongly baroclinic environment. Rainfall amounts near 2 inches
are forecast for the far southeast with about a half inch central
and lesser amounts northwest.

A small area of thunderstorm chances will exist across Dickey and
Lamoure counties today, otherwise only showers are expected. Low
probability of hydrology issues from the rain at this time as its
forecast over a 18 to 24 hour period in an area that should be
able to absorb the rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread showers will linger on Sunday across much of central
and eastern North Dakota, diminishing Sunday night. Otherwise,
we`ll see cool temperatures through mid week with scattered frost
chances Monday and Tuesday morning. Low temperatures fall into
the mid 30s west and south central during that period. Highs
Monday and Tuesday should be in the mid 50s to around 60. A slow
moderation of temperatures is expected by the end of the week with
highs in the low to mid 60s Wednesday through Friday with mainly
dry weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Currently have MVFR/IFR conditions at all but KDIK, which was VFR.
Showers are currently moving through southwest ND and we`ll
continue to see an expansion of precipitation eventually effecting
all locations this evening and overnight. With the exception of
KISN, all locations expected to degrade to IFR conditions through
the forecast period.




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