Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE INHERITED FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK FOR THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE. DID MODIFY POPS FOR THE NEXT S/WV SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. SCALED BACK ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TILL 09Z...HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS LATE TONIGHT PAST DAYBREAK SATURDAY.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE SETTING SUN. STILL AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER BORDERING MONTANA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. THUS HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST NEXT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE UTILIZED THE 01 UTC
RAP AS A GUIDE FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.
BROUGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST AROUND 09-10 UTC WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STRONGER CELLS HAVE REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. UPDATED SKY COVER AND POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE AND THE 14-15 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR...BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN TRAIL. SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND WILL FADE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST TO
BE PRECIPITATION FREE. DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT 30-35 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH
EQUATES TO BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE`S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DURING THIS
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO 40S CENTRAL...WARMING TO
LOWS IN THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY THE MEANDERING CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
DRY END OF THE WEEK. CONTINUED MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASES AROUND 7-10KFT
TRACKING MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KJMS AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL MENTION A VCSH AT KISN-KMOT-KJMS SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH






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