Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 271703
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1103 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

RADARS ARE SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CWA RIGHT
NOW...WITH VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE. THERE AREA FEW MORE SHOWERS
UPSTREAM IN WESTERN COLORADO RIGHT NOW. THE LATEST MODELS DO SHOW
SOME CAPE AROUND THE CWA THIS A AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THERE ARE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS RIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S F. MAY LOWER POPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS...AS LATEST
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE.
$$

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEY AREA MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT THESE SPILL ONTO THE PLAINS BUT THERE IS AT LEAST WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO AID THAT CAUSE. THE BULK
OF THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY
ON DAYTIME HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH. AS A RESULT...HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE. STORM
INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO NO
SEVERE STORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASE OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BUILDING SUBSIDENCE.
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW
TEMPS IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS AND 30S/40S MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER AZ/NEW MX ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF GENERATED IN
THE MDLS...BUT WL KEEP A SLGT CHC OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVNG. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WITH THE AXIS
SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE WITH A WEAK
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MDLS TRY TO PUSH SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WL GO WITH
CHC POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SLGT CHC OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES MAY GET OFFSET BY A DEGREE OR TWO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT DIA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DRAINAGE PATTERNS TONIGHT. MAY DROP TEMPO GROUP
IN TAF BECAUSE CONVECTION BY TO QUITE LIMITED. NO CEILING ISSUES

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...RJK


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