Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240248
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
848 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ON THE PLAINS AT THIS HOUR AS
THE AMBIENT AIRMASS GROWS DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OVER AND ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE HAVE
ALSO SUBSIDED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE TRANSITIONING TO THEIR TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WILL REMOVE SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARDS CLEAR SKIES.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THERE IS ISOLATED SHALLOW BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FURTHER EAST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CYS RIDGE
AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING STRONG INVERSION AROUND 500MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE ONLY BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. HAVE ALREADY REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND
INDICATED JUST LIGHT SHOWERS.

THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BUILD AND BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND STABILIZE WITH NO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE STATE FOR CONTINUED
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONSHORE FRIDAY TO MOVE THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN THEN
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
DRIER FORECAST - BUT HAVE KEPT THE SAME FORECASTED TRENDS. AS
THIS TROUGH PASSES...EXPECT TUESDAY TO RETURN TO A WARM AND DRY
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 847 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE GRADUALLY SWINGING CLOCKWISE
AROUND TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 8
KTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AND GENERALLY STAY BELOW 8 KTS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH
NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...BAKER



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