Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 312144
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
344 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Scattered showers have developed over the foothills with a few
thunderstorms moving out over the Palmer Divide. Showers to the
north have not been strong enough to reach electrification up to
this point. We should continue to see a couple more hours of
shower development into the early evening. On the plains, stratus
clouds helped keep temperatures too cool to support deep
convection. The evening showers should produce little more than
brief rain and small hail.

Low clouds are expected re-develop overnight as the moist airmass
remains in place.

Very similar conditions are expected tomorrow, except temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer. The airmass may have a little bit
more CAPE, but an upper level ridge is going to begin developing,
adding some subsidence into the mix. Will keep the expected
scattered showers mainly over the mountains and adjacent plains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Very weak westerly flow aloft is progged for the CWA Wednesday
night and Thursday. A weak upper trough moves eastward to our
north Thursday night through Friday night and the flow aloft is
still weak but north or northwesterly. All five periods, and well
into the later days, an upper ridge stays parked over the Desert
Southwest/Great Basin area. The QG Omega fields have weak downward
synoptic scale energy progged for the forecast area all five
periods. The boundary layer flow is dominated by southerly wind
directions Wednesday night into Thursday night. The afore
mentioned upper trough brings a weak front early Friday morning.
East and northeasterlies are progged Friday afternoon and night.
There is some moisture around Wednesday evening...then cross
sections show drying overnight. In fact, Thursday through Friday
night remain pretty dry for the CWA. There is some CAPE over the
mountians and foothills Wednesday evening. There is pretty decent
CAPE over the southern and eastern CWA late day Thursday. There is
little CAPE around Friday. There is some minor measurable
precipitation over the western half of the CWA Wednesday evening,
with only a tad over the high country late day Thursday, and even
less late day Friday. So pops will be 0-20%s during the later day
periods mostly Wednesday and Thursday. For temperatures, Thursday`s
highs are 3-6 C warmer then Wednesday`s. Friday`s highs are 0-2 C
warmer than Thursday`s. For the later days, Saturday through
Tuesday, models keep the upper ridge west of Colorado Saturday and
Sunday, hen push it east Sunday night. On Monday, the upper ridge
axis is over Colorado...then over the CWA by afternoon. There
could be weak upper troughiness over the state on Wednesday.
Moisture remains sparse through much of the later days. Temperatures
should be a bit above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

The threat of light rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
persist for a few more hours. Showers are developing over the
higher terrain of the foothills and drifting eastward on the
westerly winds aloft. The airmass on the plains is too cool and
stable to support surface based showers, so we are seeing the
shower activity weaken as it moves over the plains. The exception
to this is over the Palmer Divide. Overnight, stratus clouds are
expected to re-develop and possibly bring ceilings down to low
MVFR heights for a few hours around sunrise. Winds will have an
easterly to southeasterly tendency overnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Dankers



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