Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 280608

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
208 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Nearly stationary upper level low pressure over Lake Superior will
continue to bring dry and seasonally warm conditions to the North
Country through Wednesday. Chances for showers increase for the
end of the work week and into the weekend though as the low drifts
southward into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday, remaining there
through Saturday.


As of 208 AM EDT Wednesday...Composite radar loop showing some
rain showers over Essex county New York that are moving into
Clinton county New York at this time. Have updated the overnight
zone forecasts to reflect this.

Previous discussion from 1018 PM EDT Tuesday...Water vapor
imagery shows series of shortwaves rotating up into our area from
the large upper level low pressure system moving southward across
the Upper Midwest. These shortwaves are enhancing the development
of showers near the Canadian Border and it appears this threat
will continue for at least a couple of more hours. Have tweaked
grids to account for this activity otherwise remainder of forecast
in good shape.

Previous Discussion...
For tonight into Wednesday, a semi-stationary closed upper low
over Lake Superior will continue to be the dominating weather
feature across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast as it very
slowly meanders south. Mean south/southwesterly flow in a dry
slot aloft will continue to rule over the area which will keep
conditions dry with variable cloudiness. It will also keep us on
the mild side of normal in regards to temperatures with tonights
lows only dropping down into 40s for most, exception being the
colder hollows of the Adirondacks where some upper 30s are
possible. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today for locations
west of the Green Mountains in the mid 60s to low 70s, but east of
the spine it`ll be a little cooler as a low marine stratus layer
moves in overnight and continue through the first half of
Wednesday. If the stratus deck wasn`t there tonight, fog would be
a good bet for all of our climo favored river valleys, but as such
I think it will be confined to northern New York where skies will
be clearest and winds light.


As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridging aloft will help keep bulk of
precip associated with large 500mb closed low over the Western
Ohio Valley as models show 500mb heights increase through
Thursday evening. At the surface, large ridge over the eastern
half of Canada reinforces lack of movement of weak surface low
around the Ohio Valley. Expect cloudy conditions across southern
half of the forecast area and partly cloudy for areas north to
start the period, but as flow at 850mb and 925mb becomes more
easterly late Thursday, low level moisture and clouds will spread
across northern areas as well. Chances for rain showers will be
closest to the aforementioned low, therefore, Adirondacks and
south central Vermont will see chances for rain, while most other
areas expect dry or only slight chance. Thursday night will see
the closed 500mb low eventually start to migrate northward.


As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...The closed mid/upper level low
pressure looks to slowly travel northward, bringing increasing
chances for precipitation across the North Country. On Saturday
this low picks up momentum with the highest chances for rain
showers affecting the area Saturday night through most of Monday
as a occluded front moves from SW to NE. As the mid-upper low
moves over the eastern Great Lakes Region, it will weaken,
especially as it begins to move into NY on Monday. Models vary on
track at this point. Not a strong or deep moisture feed associated
with this system, as warm conveyor belt associated with coastal
low. Therefore, not expecting heavy precip as PWATs stay within 1
standard deviation of normal across the North Country.


.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period, except for areas of valley fog across eastern and
northeast Vermont with areas of IFR/LIFR until 13Z Wednesday.

Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday...

06z Thu - 00z Fri: Mainly VFR.

00z Fri - 00z Mon: Mainly VFR with MVFR in rain showers possible,
especially on Saturday/Sunday.




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