Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 020531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 106 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT
CONDITIONS BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK. IF THERE ARE GOING TO BE
ANY SHOWERS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK
THEN OCCURS TOMORROW AS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION. WHILE BAROCLINICITY IS ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30-40KT) AND MODEST PBL
INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) ALONG FORERUNNING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM
FAIRLY EASILY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TREND STRONG...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CELL OR TWO...BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD WHERE BETTER INSOLATION SHOULD OCCUR. BETTER
FORCING/HEATING DOES APPEAR TO SET UP JUST A BIT SOUTH OF US
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS SETUP I`VE ADDED PROGS FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALL
HAIL IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY...IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO MOST RECENT 5 PCT SREF CALIBRATED
TSTM/SVR TSTM PROGS. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ANY EVENING CONVECTION THEN CLEARS EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS ACTUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DROPPING OVER TIME.

THEREAFTER...MEAN HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT. ONLY A MODEST AIR MASS CHANGE WITH HIGHS STILL SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE. THEN TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP THE REGION. LOWS QUITE PLEASANT...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM EDT MONDAY...FA REMAINS IN SIMILAR PATTERN WITH BEING ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE WITH OCCASIONAL NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS DAMPENING RIDGE TEMPORARILY WITH CHANCCE SHRA/TSRA THEN
A RETURN TO DRY AND ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS.


ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY WITH SURFACE
RIDGE IN CONTROL THU AND SLIDING SE ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WITH
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE U70S-L/M80S.

LATE FRI/FRIDAY NGT/SATURDAY...NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASE SHRA/TSRA THREAT LATE ACRS ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. MAIN PUSH FOR SHRA WILL BE FRI NGT AS SURFACE FRONT SLIDES ACRS FA
AND LINGERING INTO SAT AS FLOW IS PARALLEL TO FRONT WITH HINT OF SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY THUS CHANCCE LINGERING SHRA...ESP VT
EASTWARD.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACRS FA ON SUN BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE...MAINLY SOME CLOUDS AND RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIMEFRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...HANSON






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