Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 292325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

High pressure will build down into the region from Canada
tonight. This will allow for clearing skies and winds to become
light. Cooler temperatures are expected over the area on Sunday.
A large strengthening low pressure system over the Ohio valley
region will lift a warm front through New England bringing
another chance for rain Sunday afternoon and evening. This will
start a period of unsettled weather over the North Country for
the first half of the work week.


As of 701 PM EDT Saturday...Overall forecast in good shape with
little change needed at this time. Only tweaks are to slow
downward temperature trend based on current conditions and
adjust sky cover based on satellite trends.

Previous Discussion...
With clearing skies overnight and winds weakening expect decent
radiational cooling to take place leading to lows in the 30s
for the North Country. I know it seems like thats "cold" but its
actually near normal for late April in the North Country.

On Sunday the clouds will thicken and increase early as a warm
front associated with a deepening surface low pressure system
over the central CONUS lifts into the North Country. Expect
scattered showers to increase over northern New York with only
some isolated showers over Vermont. There will be some slight
mountain enhancement so I`ve offered slightly higher
probabilities for showers on the western slopes.

There is definitely some high bust potential with regards to the
timing of the warm front and warmer air for Sunday. We start out
on the cool side and will slowly warm as the front lifts north.
I continued the trend of staying on the cooler side of guidance
because of the winds from the models. Based on the idea that the
warm air advection wont really get started until mid afternoon I
dont see how we`d warm to the upper 50s that MOS and GFS based
guidance present. Expect generally low 50s in the Champlain and
Connecticut river valleys with upper 40s in the typically
colder hollows of northern New York and the Northeast Kingdom.


As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Interesting period of weather with
warm front Sunday night over the far northern portions of New
York and Vermont. Expecting showers along and north of the
boundary...essentially north of and Ogdensburg to Burlington to
Saint Johnsbury line Sunday night but as warm front lifts
northward on Monday the area of showers should lift north of the
Canadian border as well. Much of the area will get in the warm
sector on Monday...especially during the afternoon hours...but
not all of the area will realize the potential for warmer
temperatures. This will be due to the low level flow where areas
of the Greens in Vermont will have southeast flow and this will
keep clouds and cooler temperatures over the area. The
Champlain Valley and northern Adirondacks will benefit the most
with many locations getting into the 70s. Low level northeast
flow in the Saint Lawrence Valley will keep highs in the 60s.
Eventually the cold front will move across the area Monday night
from west to east and precipitation chances will increase over
the entire area. More appreciable rainfall is expected with
amounts in the half inch to one inch range and the possibility
will exist for some thunderstorms and have continued the slight
chance mention.


As of 317 PM EDT Saturday...Cold front will have moved east of
the region on Tuesday but upper trough lags back over eastern
Canada and the Northeast. This will help to keep the threat of
showers going across the area...especially over the higher
terrain. Eventually some drying should take place Wednesday
night into Thursday...but another trough of low pressure will
move in for Friday and the start of the weekend to enhance the
chances once again for showers. There will be an overall trend
toward below normal temperatures Wednesday into Thursday
followed by a slow warming trend Friday into Saturday.


Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions through the entire period.
Gusty northwest winds...with speeds in the 15 to 30 knot
range...are expected through about 03z as the leading edge of
cooler and drier air moves down into the region from Canada.
Areal coverage of clouds will decrease overnight and no
precipitation is expected. Winds will be under 10 knots after
03z. Clouds will return after 15z...but any ceilings will be in
the VFR category. There may be some light showers moving into
the region after 18z...but visibilities are expected to remain
in the VFR category.


Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Windy with gusts to 32 kts. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.




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