974
FXUS61 KBTV 110604
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
204 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will develop during each of the next few
days, with northern New York seeing the most numerous showers.
Temperatures will continue to be at or below normal. The
unsettled and cooler weather continues through the middle of the
week, when a few thunderstorms possible as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 204 AM EDT Saturday...Main story continues to be the
Northern Lights visible early this morning in most of the
region, with convenient clearing of skies throughout
northeastern NY and much of northern Vermont. Progged relative
humidity in the 700-850 mb level coincident with the present
cloud layer is ebbing and flowing, with a slight trend towards
greater coverage of cloudy skies and then clearer skies over the
remainder of the overnight hours. Expect further adjustments to
sky cover may be needed, but overall forecast is in good shape.
Towards daybreak the most marked drying aloft is indicated in
northeastern Vermont, while overcast skies are most likely to
persist in western Franklin County and throughout St. Lawrence
County in New York.


Previous Discussion...

Diurnal heating has caused a few low-topped convective showers
to develop, but limited instability is keeping them light. The
low- level of the atmosphere is also dry so some of the lighter
ones are not even reaching the ground. As diurnal heating wanes,
the convection will quickly dissipate this evening. Tonight
should be mostly dry, except across the St. Lawrence Valley
where a few continued showers are possible. The daytime cumulus
and stratocumulus should mostly dissipate this evening,
particularly over northern areas. However, it will take longer
to for the clouds to fall apart than the showers, so it will
likely be close to midnight before skies can mostly clear. Skies
should generally be either partly cloudy or mostly clear for
the second half of the night, with the clearest areas farther
north. Lows will generally be in the upper 30s and low 40s, but
some of the colder hollows of the Northeast Kingdom could fall
into the low or mid-30s if enough clearing occurs. A shortwave
passes through the region tomorrow and the extra forcing will
bring more numerous showers, mostly across northern New York.
However, the convection will still be low topped and there will
still be very limited instability, so while some of the showers
may be heavier, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures
will be very similar to today, with highs between the mid 50s
and mid 60s. Another shortwave builds in Saturday night so there
is enough forcing for the showers to continue overnight,
despite the lack of diurnal heating. Overall, even though there
will be some showers for an extended period of time, QPF is low.
It is generally between a few hundreths of an inch over the
Northeast Kingdom to around a quarter inch over northern New
York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...Isolated to scattered showers remain
possible Sunday with longwave trough centered over the North
Country and a weak wave moving through. Best chances will be
along and adjacent to terrain in the afternoon as heating helps
destabilize low levels. Forcing will be weakening with the wave
tracking east, so no thunderstorms expected at this time. Low
amplitude ridging will late Sunday and overnight keeping shower
chances at a minimum. Given the lower amplitude, cloud cover
should be at least partially present precluding strong
radiational cooling suppressing widespread fog chances. Still,
if any areas do clear, some fog may form. Temperatures will
likely peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday with overnight
lows in the 40s as temperatures aloft cool.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...Ensemble guidance continues to favor
an active weather pattern with the Northeast between major
synoptic features. This will keep passing waves/ridges fast
moving and lower amplitudes. A series of waves moving through
the longwave pattern will bring periods of showers, but strong
forcing mechanisms will likely be lacking. Best chances for
thunderstorms will be Tuesday where a passing wave could be
coincident with max heating which would aid in destabilizing low
levels. High temperature trends are expected to range from
slightly below seasonal averages early next weak to slightly
above average towards the end of the weak. NBM and GEFS members
highlight Thursday as the warmest day with a ridge cresting;
highs could reach the low/mid 70s for lower valleys if skies
stay clear and models verify with an increase in longwave
amplitude. Otherwise, low temperatures will generally be around
to slightly above averages given continued cloud cover
precluding radiational cooling and a lack of cold air which
remains locked well north of the region. Outlook for frost
continues to be minimal for lower valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions will largely prevail
through the TAF period, with the possible exception of
intermittent fog at SLK early this morning. BKN/OVC in the
070-100 range will largely persist with periods of scattering
through the period. Scattered showers will develop with VCSH at
MSS where chances of showers are slightly higher than farther
east, but may see showers expand towards 00Z such that the move
over other sites. Brief MVFR visibilities will be possible
associated with the showers. Winds will continue to be light,
only peaking into the 5 to 10 knot range during the daytime and
primarily out of the south/southeast.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Neiles