Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 010751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT AHEAD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE TUG HILL WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
THROUGH SUNRISE, AND NORTHEAST VERMONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY FOR MID-MORNING WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY AS WE AWAIT
THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH IS TRENDING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD INDICATED. ENERGY REALLY
DOESN`T REACH THE CWA BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANING. STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND COULD
EVEN SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONGER CORES BASED ON STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TO LOCALLY 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH SAID RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS A
STRONGER/SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH AS
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO
WHERE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH QUESTIONABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
INSTABILITY OVER POINTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP A BIT BUT BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM THOUGH,
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOW AND LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG,
35-45KTS 0-6KM OFF THE GFS20. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL THINKING
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEASTERN U.S., SEPARATED
BY A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. OUR DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGELY GOVERNED BY THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL TEND TO
PULL EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO AN OVERALL LESSENING OF
THE SHOWER THREAT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
EVENING WITH EXITING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/FRONT, THEN GENERALLYSLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE VALUES (20-40%) FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND PLEASANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING GENERALLY THROUGH
THE 70S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR
60, OR ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW DAILY EARLY AUGUST NORMS. CERTAINLY
NOTHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG


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