Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 011932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL
BRING GENERALLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SFC AND
ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LIMITED TO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 60S. ELSEWHERE...COMBINATION OF LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT
AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS WELL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE 58-64F IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS
FAR NERN VT AND IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NRN
ADIRONDACK REGION. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STABLE PBL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...CONTINUED QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEDNESDAY. ONCE EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATES...LOOKING AT NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +17C TO +18C...WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...WITH A FEW ISOLD
90F READINGS POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN OUR OVERALL PATTERN OF THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NERN U.S.. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND 00Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THE BEST FORCING CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NW-SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE KEPT 15-30
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DURING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSTM IN SPOTS ACROSS NRN NY/NRN VT.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE MID 60S.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES
THURSDAY...BUT A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH
DECREASING HUMIDITY AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THURSDAY TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 81-85F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL FOG
EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT TUESDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEXT
CHANCE AT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
CROSSING THE AREA. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VLIFR/LIFR FOG AT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT
AFTER 07Z. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL LIFT BY ABOUT 12-14Z AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE
SOME FG/BR AT MSS BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME...NOT SURE IT
WILL DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING
VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.