Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 031955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE
THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS
THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC.
ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT
TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN
THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL
BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR
VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FINAL ERODE BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. ONCE THAT INVERSION BREAKS EXPECT DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN
AND LEAD TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. GIVEN THE LOWERED CHANCE I KEPT
MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE 18Z SUITE BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE
INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF.
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/SISSON


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