Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290231
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THEN COLD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 928 PM EST SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING BUT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. RIGHT ALONG THIS PARTIAL CLEARING LINE HAS BEEN SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
MORE UPSTREAM IN RESPONSE TO FUTURE WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
REFLECTION TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THEREFORE...HAVE MOVED UP TIMING OF POPS/CHC -SHSN FROM NOW
TTHROUGH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 PM SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...AS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ONE MORE NIGHT AS
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS UNDERWAY.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO
FURTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. INCREASING COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEREFORE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER
THAN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE THE LAST NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A PERFECTLY
CLEAR DAY BY ANY MEANS...MAY SEE SOME BITS OF SUN HERE AND THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING OVER TIME...ENHANCED SHSN ACROSS
THE LK ONTARIO SNOWBELTS...AND A POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM WITH A SNOW TO MIXED P-TYPE SCENARIO.

BROAD-SCALE IDEA WILL BE FOR COLD WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING WED/THU IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY
MOISTURE-STARVED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MEAN 850 MB TEMPS AVG
FROM -12 TO -17C...PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE ENHANCED SHSN
ACTIVITY FROM THE TUG HILL REGION NORTHWARD INTO SRN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND INTO THE WESTERN DACKS. MEAN INVERSION HEIGHTS RATHER
HIGH AS WELL SO HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE 40-60% RANGE ROUGHLY
FROM THE HIGH PEAKS/SLK REGION WESTWARD. SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SHSN ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN GREENS DURING THIS
PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT OF LAKE SNOWS AND GENERAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE
ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT AFTER HAVING A
THOROUGH LOOK I IMAGINE WE`LL BE SEEING SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
OUT IN OUR NRN NY SNOWBELTS BY LATER THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ATOP THE REGION. AS A RESULT HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS AND A LIGHTLY MIXED
PBL.

BY LATE WEEK GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS ONBOARD SHOWING A
LARGER-SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION WITH A MORE SOLID SHOT OF PCPN
AREA-WIDE. SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT BACK INTO THE
PICTURE...MOST NOTABLY FROM THIS MORNINGS 12Z EURO RUN.
HOWEVER...THE BROADER CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING A RATHER VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TAKING A
PRIMARY TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE SLV. GIVEN COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES IN PLACE...THIS WOULD SUGGEST INITIAL
OVERRUNNING/WARM ADVECTION- DRIVEN PCPN TO FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN AS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES WARM BY
LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TIME WILL TELL HOW THIS
EVOLVES...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MODELS HANDLE SW CONUS
CUTOFFS AND POTENTIAL NRN STREAM PHASING SUGGESTS CONTINUED CLOSE
MONITORING. IN ANY REGARD WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ADVERTISING A SNOW TO
MIX/RAIN SCENARIO AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 30S TO
LOCALLY AROUND 40 BY LATER SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY VFR WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3500-5500FT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KSLK, WHERE MVFR CEILINGS OF 2000-3000FT WILL BE
COMMON. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. MAY SPARK A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
(PRIMARILY KSLK TERMINAL) WHICH IN TURN COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AND TIMING
A BIT TOUGH TO SPECIFICALLY MENTION IN TAFS (OTHER THAN "VCSH").
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 12-19KT FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING.

MOST GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO SCATTER OUT THE THE CLOUD DECK BY LATE
MORNING, BUT THINK THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE FAST. THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED BKN CEILINGS (ALBEIT MOSTLY VFR) FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE WESTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW SCT -SHSN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES/SLW
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/NASH



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