Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 252337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL SLOW TO PUSH NORTH
INTO CANADA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...STILL LOOKING AT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE LED
TO A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND HAVE TWEAKED THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



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