Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 062337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO
500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER
THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS
UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME PERIOD. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT SLK/RUT FOR A
TIME AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE MIXING AND SCATTERING OUT AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WILL SHOW WITH VCSH FOR NOW. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA.
18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.