Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 250152
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
952 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend with an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Western Atlantic high pressure continues to ridge into the
forecast area this evening as IR satellite imagery confirms the
dissipation of the diurnal cumulus clouds. Recent radar imagery
shows the sea breeze continuing to push northwestward through the
Midlands. Temperatures will be slow to fall as winds stay up
through the evening as the sea breeze pushes through and a low
level jet develops. Overnight lows expected to fall into the upper
50s to lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday and Wednesday night...The mid and upper level ridge
will break down a bit as a series of weak short wave troughs move
across the area. At the surface, high pressure will continue to
extend across the region from the western Atlantic. Moisture
appears to remain very shallow, therefore a rain-free forecast has
been maintained. High temperatures should be in the upper 80s to
around 90, with nighttime lows in the lower to mid 60s.
Thursday and Thursday night, weak short wave energy looks to
remain in place over the area with the upper ridge displaced to
the east. The Atlantic high will continue to build into the
region, and the sea breeze is expected to be rather robust,
shifting into the eastern Midlands late in the afternoon. The
combination of somewhat deeper moisture, the disturbance aloft and
the sea breeze boundary could result in isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, especially along
the I-95 corridor. Temperatures should be very similar to
Friday, Upper level ridging will retrograde back into the region,
shunting the deeper moisture to the west. Meanwhile, medium range
guidance is fairly consistent in showing a wave of low pressure
forming north of the Caribbean and tracking toward the northwest.
Given a lack of deep moisture or any significant forcing
mechanism, have maintained a rain-free forecast.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The focus during the long term period is on the Atlantic low
pressure system shifting toward the Southeast coast early in the
weekend. Medium range guidance, including the GFS and ECMWF,
indicate this low strengthening some as it approaches the coast.
It is possible that this low could gain sub-tropical or even
tropical characteristics and will need to be monitored. At this
time, guidance all suggests a slow movement of the storm, meaning
that unsettled conditions could occur through much of the Memorial
Day weekend. Still considerable uncertainty, but the forecast does
indicate a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend
into early next week. Depending on the track of the storm, locally
heavy rainfall and flooding could be an issue across parts of the
Midlands and CSRA.
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions expected through 06Z.
Increasing low level moisture coupled with near calm wind and dry
air aloft could lead to early morning fog 08Z-12Z. Any fog that
develops will dissipate by 13Z...leaving VFR conditions through
the end of the taf period. High pressure off the coast will
continue to ridge into the region. Winds will be Southerly less
than 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early each morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday/Sunday as a subtropical low
approaches the area.