Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 270709
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
TODAY WITH ITS DEEP SURFACE AND UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA AND RESULTING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH.
STRATO-CU AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES...BUT SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO LIFT LIMITED/DOWNSLOPE. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF CLOUDINESS APPEARS TO
BE IN THE CSRA. LOCAL GUIDANCE AND MET MOS COOL BIAS SUGGEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS SHOULD BE
LOWER TODAY ALTHOUGH A FEW GUST TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY
CSRA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING WITH COLD ADVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE TEENS.
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RIDGE OVER AREA. HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM MIDWEST POSSIBLY
SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE. FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT...MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

COLDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT
SEEMS TO BE BY MID DAY SUNDAY AND MOVING OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP
FOR THE SUNDAY EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF NJ WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CROSSES THE TAF SITES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME STRATO-CU AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 9 KNOTS AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH 15Z WHEN
GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET RETURNING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 7
KNOTS FROM 23Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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