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000
FXUS62 KCAE 191222
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
822 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA TODAY WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL GA AND INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING SO SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR HAVE RAINFALL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MUCH
LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COMPLEX TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH LEAVES THE
QUESTION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WITH REMAINS OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR HEATING. WITH
CLOUDINESS COVERING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LIMITING HEATING
WILL REMAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE HOLD
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING...THEN JUST CHANCE MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT WILL TAKE OUT
POPS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DE
PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF
MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS THAT ARE IN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RESULTING IN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT CAE WSR-88D
RETURNS INDICATE LARGE COMPLEX CROSSING EAST CENTRAL GA MOVING
TOWARD AGS/DNL. EXPECT SHOWERS...TEMPO THUNDER...AT AGS/DNL FROM
14Z THROUGH 18Z. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION AN
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE NOT MENTIONED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ATTM AS MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON CURRENT COMPLEX IN GA AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FOR HEATING. FINAL CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND WITH
CURRENT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA RISK IS ELEVATED SO
HAVE INCLUDED FOG FROM AROUND 20/06Z ONWARD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$