Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 050522
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1222 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BACK TO THE REGION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST GA NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NC WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. EXPECT BY 12Z THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE. THIS TIMING IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND MILD SW WINDS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT. ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE NORMALS FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POP BY LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA TO START OFF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE
NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MIDLANDS...HIGH WILL OCCUR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S...THEN BEGINNING TO FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE PEAK HEATING
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
GUSTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE PRECIP WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY THE TIME ANY TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.
HOWEVER IF THE TIMING IS OFF ON EITHER THE PRECIP OR TEMPERATURES...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

FRIDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COLD...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DO
EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP
TO AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TERM IN REGARDS TO POPS.
MODELS STILL NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO FOR THE
MOST PART HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF LATEST FORECAST AND
NEWEST HPC GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 09Z.
A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...SO COULD SEE
WIND GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS TOWARD DAWN.

WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH CIGS BECOMING IFR/LIFR
08Z-11Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. VSBYS SHOULD ONLY LOWER TO MVFR DUE TO
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS STAYING UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES 15Z-18Z TIME-FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TAF SITES IN THE 19Z-22Z TIME-FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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