Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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362
FXUS62 KCAE 270649
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
249 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Afternoon
thunderstorms will be isolated the next few days...possible better
chance over the weekend into next week as moisture increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The upper level ridge will remain over the region today. Warm
temperatures aloft will limit afternoon convection. At the surface
a weak Piedmont trough remains in place with surface ridge
offshore. Models suggest an increase in low level moisture this
afternoon but shallow. This may result in a few more cumulus
clouds. Vertical development will be limited due to weak
instability associated with continued warm temperatures aloft.
High LFC and mid level cap expected. Any convection will be
isolated and mainly north and west of the region around upper
ridge. 850mb temperatures similar to yesterday. Mos max
temperature guidance cool bias so will go with a persistence
forecast with temperatures around 100 degrees. Heat index should
be below heat advisory criterion as drier air mixes down in the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature both aloft
and at the surface on Thursday in fact subsidence inversion may
strengthen. Ridge may weaken on slightly on Friday and a few weak
short waves may trigger afternoon convection...mainly west
Midlands/Piedmont. Instability remains weak however. Temperatures
both maximum/minimum should remain above normal. Expect Thursday
max temperatures possibly warmer than today. Friday...slightly
cooler with increase in moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level ridge will weaken Saturday as a shortwave trough
moves into the mid Mississippi and Ohio river valleys.  The
better chances for convection appear to be possibly over the
weekend but more likely next week. Moisture will increase late
Saturday and Sunday with precipitable water values near 1.9
inches. Temperatures above normal with highs in the mid/upper 90s
and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Skies remain clear across the region with light southerly winds
continuing. With a very warm air mass in place and a low level jet
around 25 knots fog is not expected this morning. Winds will
increase during the morning hours with southerly winds through the
day between 8 and 10 knots. Scattered cumulus will develop from
the late morning through the early evening hours...however
thunderstorms are not expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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