Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 231037
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE CSRA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE CSRA EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION
THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AND SHIFT EAST.
THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. INSTABILITY APPEARS MODERATE DUE TO STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 IN THE CSRA. ALTHOUGH LIFT
REMAINS WEAK AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN WARM DUE TO CONTINUED
RIDGING...WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND MOISTURE
INCREASING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST LATE
AFTERNOON MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH...LIMITED CONVECTION CSRA UNTIL
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT.
EXPECT CHANCE POPS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLING
TEMPS ALONG AND NORTH OF IT. SO...POPS SUN AFTERNOON FAVORING THE
CSRA WHERE INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRONGER. HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY LESS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEK.
WITH COOLER DRY AIR SETTLING IN WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS 85 TO 90 EARLY TO MID WEEK RISING BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE 65 TO
70 RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CIRRUS CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT FOG FROM
FORMING WITH ALL SITES VFR. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
CAE/CUB AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BRING RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.