Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 230556
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
156 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Dry, high pressure will settle over the region Sunday.
Temperatures will be warmer Monday with some air mass
modification. Another cold front will move through the area
Monday evening with a re-enforcing shot of cool air through
Midweek. Slight chance of showers late week as a fast moving
system moves through the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
For the rest of the morning, surface high pressure will continue
to move eastward reducing the pressure gradient. Surface winds
will weaken from light to calm through early Sunday morning. A
dry airmass supports clear skies throughout the night. Nearly
ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow many locations to
drop in to the upper 30s to lower 40s. This would be the coolest
night since last April. The local radiation scheme supports model
guidance with lows in the upper 30s.
Today, an upper level trough over New England will be moving
northeast while a ridge builds over the Midwest and Gulf coast
states. The Carolinas and Georgia will remain in dry northwest
flow aloft. Neutral temperature advection Sunday along with
downslope flow should result in warming temperatures/modification
of air mass. Guidance temperatures appear on track with maximum
temperatures in the lower 70s...near normal.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Overnight temperatures Sunday night should be warmer than the
previous night due to a relatively strong low level jet. Another
weak cold front will approach the region late Monday...so pre-
frontal downslope flow expected/weak warm advection. Guidance mild
with maximum temperatures around 80. Front will come through the
area dry and winds shift to northeast in the evening. Cooler air
mass from the Upper Midwest will be building southeast behind the
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models are in relatively good agreement through Wednesday showing
an upper ridge over the center of the country with northwesterly
flow aloft over the southeastern states. GFS Model indicating poor
run-to-run consistency with a clipper system late week. The has
been more progressive and less amplified upper trough moving
through the eastern CONUS. Latest GFS is more in line with ECMWF
with a weak surface low moving from the Great Lakes region east
across New England. Weak trough extending south across the
carolinas through early Friday. Moisture appears limited and will
go with a slight chance showers Thursday and Thursday night.
Seasonable temperatures or slightly warmer than normal during the
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.
Dry, high pressure will continue to settle into the region. A dry
airmass will prevent fog formation. The weakening low level jet
will allow light winds to become calm through early Sunday
Today, surface high pressure will move over the region reducing
the pressure gradient. Wind speeds will be noticeably weaker than
yesterday, generally out of the SW at 7 knots or less. However a stronger
nocturnal jet may keep light winds up through the early evening
at some sites.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.