Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 170553
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED LATEST FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTICITY (MCV) NEAR THE CHARLOTTE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING STORM OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL MIDLANDS FROM
SALUDA...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT BUT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS NEAR CHARLOTTE PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CSRA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE AREA IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION.
KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME-FRAME. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE COOLER READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH MORNING.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z MAINLY VFR BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OR FOG
TOWARD MORNING DUE TO HIGH-LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BUT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AS SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD
SHIFT OFF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN STRATUS AND OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.