Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 030559
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND PLENTIFUL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...PROVIDING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING/...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SATPIX SHOW WEAK S/WV MOVING
THROUGH UPSTATE AND INTO MIDLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. EXPECT THESE TO PUSH TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

ANOTHER S/WV AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO BECOME GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE E CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS FRIDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH APPEARS WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TO
NEAR OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SAT. MODELS MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES
SAT/SUN. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. MOST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY FAVORED...THOUGH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT OTHER TIMES.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES AREA OF SMOKE THAT WAS
OVER OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SATELLITE...METARS
AND PIREPS DO NOT APPEAR TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SMOKE OR HAZE
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AREA OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD DRIFT INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS
INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SE INTO
THE MIDWEST BY SAT/SUN...WITH TROUGH AXIS STAYING JUST TO OUR N
AND NW WHICH APPEARS TO SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION TO
MORE WSW OR SW. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SMOKE STAYING TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. BUT FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE HAZE MENTION FOR FRI OR SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE MAIN UPPER FLOW TO
OUR NORTH WITH WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING
OVER THE SE CONUS/MID ATLANTIC...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN
UPPER LOW COULD CUT OFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPS/MID ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AND STALL THRU MON...WITH SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR FA. CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE.

SOME INDICATIONS BY MID WEEK THAT THE UPPER FLOW COULD BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT
EAST SOME...WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE
AND POSSIBLY OF SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING TUE INTO WED.
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT FOR THAT KIND OF DAY TO DAY
DETAIL...BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN JUST A TAD FOR TUE/WED...BUT
STILL CHANCE. POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING LATE WED
INTO THU.

GENERALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF LATEST HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BETWEEN 07-10Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSTMS. IFR CIGS AT
OGB TIL AROUND 14Z THEN BECOMING VFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
TSTMS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 25MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. POSSIBLITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS AT ALL FORECAST
AREA TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
23


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.