Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 252220
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
620 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the area tonight. The ridge
will crest over the region on Sunday. Low pressure will
approach from the west Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6:20 PM Update...Strong high pressure centered over southern
James Bay will build in central Quebec tonight. A cirrus shield
is now evident on satellite pictures and web cams along the
Downeast coast, and these high clouds will push offshore early
this evening. This will set the stage for a clear and cold night
with low temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average for late
March. Lows by daybreak will range from the single digits and
low teens across the Crown of Maine to the mid teens to low 20s
across the Downeast Region. Only very minor edits to the grids
based mainly on the 6 PM observations and the latest satellite
trends.

Previous discussion...
The upper level ridge will build to the west of the area
through the early portions of the period, and its associated
surface high will build south from Quebec across Maine into the
coastal waters. A low centered over Missouri with a frontal
system extending east into the eastern Great lakes will deepen
through the period and move northeast to the Chicago area by the
of the period. Its associated warm front will move to the New
Hampshire/Maine border by the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will move off to the east Sunday night as low pressure
approaches from the west. Some light snow will spread into western
areas by Monday morning. As the low approaches the St. Lawrence
valley on Monday warmer air aloft will be pulled north changing
precipitation over to some sleet and rain Downeast as snow continues
across the north. A weak secondary low forming along the coast may
hold enough cold air near the surface to allow snow to persist
across the north Monday afternoon into Monday evening as
precipitation changes to rain Downeast. A mix of rain, sleet and
snow is likely over central areas into Monday evening. Warmer air
will continue to push north on Tuesday allowing precipitation to
change over to rain in all areas expect the far north where
some sleet and wet snow may continue to mix in. By late Tuesday
one wave of low pressure will be sliding east, south of Nova
Scotia while another low begins to approach from the
Appalachians. Between the two, precipitation may end for a while
Tuesday but skies will remain overcast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 trof will approach from the Quebec Province Tuesday night and
cross the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect the
chance of some snow/rain showers across the north and rain
showers downeast as the trof crosses the region. Thursday and
Friday are shaping up as mainly dry days in the wake of the
departing trof. Another disturbance crossing the region next
weekend will bring the next chance of precipitation.
Temperatures through the period will average around normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions all sites through the period.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Sunday night, possibly
improving to MVFR late at night. Conditions will lower to IFR on
Monday and likely remain IFR in low clouds through Tuesday. MVFR
conditions in scattered snow/rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday.
VFR Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below SCA criteria through the period.

SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed late Monday into Monday
night for southeasterly winds gusting up to 25kt ahead of
approaching low pressure. Fog will likely limit visibilities
over the waters late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Today is the 116th consecutive day with at least 1 foot of snow
on the ground at Caribou. The all-time record of 120 days was
set during the winter of 1968-1969.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Norton
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Norton/Duda
Marine...CB/Norton/Duda
Climate...CB



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