Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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173
FXUS61 KCAR 131206
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
706 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE SNOW IN THE PENOBSCOT BAY
REGION TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7AM UPDATE...
REFINED SNOW FORECAST TO REDUCE SNOW IN EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY TO
INCLUDE MDI AND NORTH TO BANGOR. HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING IN THE
PENOBSCOT BAY AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL
LEAVE THE HEADLINES IN PLACE AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF EACH ZONE IS
BEING AFFECTED. OTHERWISE...THE SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON IS THE
NEXT CONCERN AND IT WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS IT
PROPAGATES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NORLUN TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SETTING UP IN PENOBSCOT BAY AND
WILL LINGER IN THAT AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARCTIC FRONT
WILL ORGANIZE AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING
THE SNOW IN PENOBSCOT BAY EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE
REMOVED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR INTERIOR HANCOCK COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT IN FAVOR OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HAVE
LEFT THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN PLACE FOR COASTAL HANCOCK WITH
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL LIKELY WEST OF MDI. SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN
PENOBSCOT BAY COULD SCORE AROUND 10 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE AMOUNTS
WILL QUICKLY TAPER TO JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
MDI. HAVE ALSO DROPPED AMOUNTS FOR BANGOR TO JUST AROUND 3
INCHES...MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL
ORGANIZE WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH/ARCTIC FRONT TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO BANGOR AND SWEEP EAST TO THE BORDER BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS LINE COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITH
STRONG WINDS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES. THE WINDS AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. HAVE LEFT WIND CHILL
HEADLINES UNCHANGED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
INSTABILITY TROF WL BE EXITING INTO ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
SHORT TERM PD. MAXES ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO RMN BLO ZERO IN THE NORTH
WOODS AND ST. JOHN VLY WHILE CNTRL AROOSTOOK WL TOP OUT RIGHT ARND
ZERO. THE "WARMEST" TEMPS WL BE FELT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE AFTN.

GRADIENT WL RMN HIGH THRU THE DAY WITH WINDS FM THE WNW FM 10-15KTS
UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN DRG THE EVNG. WIND CHILLS WL BE IN THE WRNG
CATEGORY (< -35F) IN THE WRN ZONES WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.
WL BE EXPANDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY DOWN TO INCLUDE COASTAL HANCOCK
AND WASHINGTON CNTYS THRU SUN MRNG.

SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD CWA SUN NGT FM THE WEST WITH RIDGE AXIS ACRS THE
AREA MON MRNG. AS HIPRES BUILDS OFFSHORE BY 18Z WINDS WL BACK ARND
TO THE SOUTH DRAWING INCREASINGLY WRMR AIR IN WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS ACRS THE NORTH AND M20S ALONG THE COAST.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WL COMMENCE ON 285K LAYER MON EVNG, INCREASING
THRU THE OVRNGT AS OVERRUNNING SETS UP. EXPECT MINS TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAXES ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA
OCCURRING.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTS TO DISAGREE ON TRACK ALTHO THEY ARE
COMING TOGETHER ON MORE OF A TUE/TUE EVNG TIMEFRAME FOR NEXT
EVENT. GFS AND CMC ARE SIMILAR WITH TRACK BISECTING CWA WITH EC
RMNG FURTHEST TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY, WITH SUCH A WARM SURGE
EXPECTED TO RIDE UP ON 75-80KT SRLY LLJ PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE
ARND 1.5 INCH 24-HR QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE AND 12Z WED.

HV WORDED TUE MRNG AS EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WITH MOST AREAS GOING OVR
TO RAIN DRG THE AFTN THEN BACK TO SNOW AFT 06Z WED. STILL TOO EARLY
TO GET MUCH MORE DETAILED THAN RA/SN ESPECIALLY WITH DISCREPANCIES
STILL EXISTING IN MED RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

UPR LVL TROF PASSES THRU AREA BY THURSDAY WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN
BRIEFLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK BFR NEXT SYSTEM WINDS UP TO OUR WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TO START. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR CIGS BY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CREATING
TEMPO IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURNS THIS EVENING TO ALL
SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A NORTH-SOUTH SNOW
SQUALL LINE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPACT TAF SITES SUCH AS
BGR MID-AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
MVFR WILL MOVE IN MON EVENING TO SOUTHERN ZONES AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SPREADING TO NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE REDUCED TO OCNL IFR IN MIXED PRECIP
THROUGH WED MORNING AT NORTHERN SITES AND IN MAINLY RA AT BGR AND
BHB.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED THE GALE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IS. THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY TOO.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE SCA IN THE INTRACOASTAL TO A GALE DURING
THE NEXT UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ONGOING ON
SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT SCA
CRITERIA TO BE MET SUN EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MON MORNING.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
COLD TEMPS IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT. SCA EXPECTED AGAIN MON EVNG
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON TUE/TUE EVNG AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015-
     016.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
     EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...MCW/FARRAR



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