Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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890
FXUS61 KCAR 141919
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
219 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain to our north tonight and Friday as
high pressure builds south of the area. A weak upper level low
will cross the region Friday night through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large, deep upper level low to our north combined with high
pressure building to our south will maintain a very cold western
flow tonight. The gradient is likely strong enough for a breeze
to continue through the night. Northern areas will have partial
cloudiness. A bit of moisture wrapping around the bottom of the
low in addition to some moisture getting picked up from the St.
Lawrence seaway will likely support flurries across the north
tonight. Further south, skies will be mostly clear. High
pressure nearby to the south will allow Friday to begin mostly
sunny. Some mid and high clouds will increase late in the day
from an upper level shortwave trough approaching from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Hipres builds briefly ovr CWA on Fri night at the start of the pd.
This wl be enuf to help winds go calm in the valleys but with clds
increasing ahd of upr lvl wv dropping thru srn Canada min temps wl
lkly only be able to drop into the negative single digits acrs the
St. John Vly. Inverted trof fm ocean storm progged to extend into
coastal zones thru Sat mrng in the form of a Norlun trof as low from
the Great Lks fills with hipres to the north. Snow showers wl slowly
come to an end acrs coastal zones by Sat aftn with possible isold
snow showers and/or flurries continuing acrs the northwest in
orographic lift.

Trof wl be exiting to the south and east Sat night with vry little
in the way of pcpn expected thru the end of the weekend. Dry nw flow
wl continue as hipres build in fm Canada with cold air filtering
south for Sat night and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure wl be present Sun night with most med range guidance
indicating wk wv rotating thru the area on Monday with snow showers
ovr all but coastal zones. The next chc for pcpn looks to be by Tue
aftn with some question as to how much blyr can warm ahd of system.
GFS indicates most of the area wl see rain late Tue night while EC
and CMC indicate a possible mix with sleet along the coast on Tue
evng bfr switching back to all snow late. 12z GFS indicates 990mb
sfc low in the Gulf of Maine by 06z Wed which draws in much warmer
air aloft while EC and CMC are much weaker with sfc trof. Rmndr of
the long term wl feature a return to dry and cold temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight and Friday, with
the possible exception of some occasional MVFR conditions in
flurries over the far north tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected with possible MVFR/localized
IFR Fri night in southern terminals as weak low pressure may
bring snow showers. VFR expected at terminals through the
weekend with isolated lower restrictions across the north in
ocnl low stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue for winds gusting up to 30 kt
tonight into Friday morning. Winds should gradually diminish
Friday afternoon as high pressure builds to the south.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will remain below SCA levels Fri
night before winds increase Sat evening and overnight as a
system passes well south of the waters through Sun morning.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Bloomer/Farrar
Marine...Bloomer/Farrar



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