Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 261426
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
926 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today. A cold front
will cross the region Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925am update...Forecast is in good shape, currently watching
local area rivers as sharp rises continue this morning, with
some hints of ice movement on the Piscataquis River. Rivers will
continue to rise through the day, with the potential for ice
jams.

Previous discussion...
The cold front has pushed through the forecast area and have
ended the dense fog advisory. Heavier showers are currently
exiting the northeast corner of the forecast area. There is some
post-frontal precip which will affect the area for the next
several hours...changing to snow for northern Aroostook County
with a dusting possible. A secondary trough...lined up with the
H500 trough passage towards midday will affect the Saint John
Valley with a line of snow showers. This line is not expected to
make any progress further southward.

Temperatures are starting to fall with the cold air advection
and the highs for this calender day have already occurred.
Daytime heating will balance the cold advection today and keep
readings steady after daybreak, but temperatures will start
falling later this afternoon. The relatively warm surface
temperatures and significantly colder air aloft will create
strong mixing to H850 with resultant wind gusts reaching 30 to
35 mph. These winds will decrease this evening, but should
remain strong enough to keep the boundary layer mixed tonight
and have favored a consensus blend for lows without any
adjustments for the usually colder spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front and upper level disturbance will cross the region
Monday with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow
showers across mostly the north and mountains, with partly sunny
skies across the remainder of the region. High pressure crosses
the region Monday night through Tuesday. Decreasing clouds are
expected across northern areas Monday night, with partly
cloudy/mostly clear skies across the remainder of the region.
An upper level disturbance will move south of the region Tuesday
with generally partly sunny skies across the forecast area. Low
pressure crossing the Great Lakes will begin to draw a warm
front north toward the region Tuesday night. Expect increasing
clouds early Tuesday night, with a chance of snow late.
Temperatures will be at above normal levels Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The Great Lakes low will move northeast Wednesday drawing the
warm front across the forecast area. However, the exact track
of the low later Wednesday into Thursday is still uncertain. The
snow will transition to rain, from south to north, Wednesday
with the warmer air being drawn north. A track northwest of the
region would allow warmer air to persist Wednesday night into
Thursday with precipitation remaining rain. A more southerly
track across the forecast area could allow colder air to be
drawn back across the region more rapidly later Wednesday night
into Thursday with a more rapid transition back to snow across
northern portions of the forecast area. A more southerly track
could also allow more persistent wrap-around snows across the
north and mountains Thursday. The low exits across the maritimes
Thursday night into Friday with decreasing snow shower chances
Thursday night. Colder air will be drawn across the region in
the wake of the exiting low. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies
are expected across the region Friday into Saturday along with
colder temperatures. Temperatures will be at above normal levels
Wednesday/Thursday though exact temperatures will be dependent
on the eventual track of the low. Below normal level
temperatures are expected Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A cold front currently exiting the eastern portion
of the forecast area will bring improving conditions. On the
back side of the front, a period of snow will affect terminals
north of PQI with snow around daybreak. After the snow ends, a
period of MVFR cigs will be possible north of HUL later this
morning. At FVE, snow showers or squalls may affect vis towards
midday. Otherwise, prevailing VFR is forecast for all other
terminals today. Winds will gust towards 30 kts from the west
today, but decrease this evening.

SHORT TERM: Variable conditions are possible with any snow
showers Monday, particularly across the north and mountains with
generally VFR conditions across the remainder of the forecast
area. West winds could gust up to 30 to 35 mph Monday.
Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Monday
night/Tuesday. MVFR/IFR conditions then begin to develop Tuesday
night. Generally expect IFR/LIFR conditions Wednesday into
early Thursday, with improving conditions later Thursday into
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog will be swept away by the cold front in the next
few hours. Winds will replace the fog as an SCA takes effect
this morning. Although winds will decrease below criteria later
tonight for a brief time, the decision was made to simply extend
the advisory rather than cancelling for a few hours and then
reissuing.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected on the
waters Monday into Monday night. A few wind gusts could also
approach gale levels Monday. Conditions are expected to be
below small craft advisory levels Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Visibilities could be reduced in rain/snow Tuesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Watching for ice jams today and tonight...
Rivers in the watch area are showing some modest rises and the
concern remains that the rises will be sufficient to break up
ice along the Piscataquis in southern Piscataquis County...and
potentially on some tributaries in the southern Penobscot River
basin. The peak rise is expected tonight and the watch will
likely need to be extended through this evening. Cooler
temperatures and much drier air today and tomorrow will
significantly decrease melting compared to recent days.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ010-011-015>017-
     031-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...MCW/Dumont
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...MCW/Dumont/Norcross
Marine...MCW/Dumont/Norcross
Hydrology...


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