Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 031353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
953 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...
TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE AS TEMPS ARE WARMING
QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED UNDER SRLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES. WINDS HV
INCREASED AND ARE BEGINNING TO GUST FM THE SOUTH THUS HV BOOSTED
WIND SPEEDS UP. SHOWERS HV DVLPD BACK ACRS ERN QUEBEC FROM THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE DOWN TO MONTREAL AND WL SPREAD EAST THRU THE
DAY. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEAD VORT MAX AND FRCG FM H7-H5
JET OF 50KTS.

THINKING RMNS THE SAME WITH REGARD TO SVR WX DVLPMNT THIS AFTN.
EXPECT A TROF OF LOPRES PER ALL HIRES MODELS TO DVLP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 21Z. AIRMASS WL DESTABILIZE WITH CAPES
RANGING FM 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF ARND 40KTS.
MAIN SVR THREAT LOOKS TO EXIST OVR NW ZONES AS OF THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CENTERED TO THE WEST OF JAMES BAY
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AND THEN INTO WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40
KT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE CWA TUE. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD TURN STRONG
OR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STABLE IT REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
TUE NIGHT AND ALLOW A LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WED
KEEPING THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED. LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL FROM
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WED WITH
HIGHS 65 TO 70 OVER NW MAINE TO THE MID 70S IN THE BANGOR AREA AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE DOWN EAST REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH IN QUEBEC CONTINUES EAST AND INTO THE NW ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE THROUGH
QUEBEC FRI AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT. A SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO START
THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND IN DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER T-STORMS. MOSTLY VFR WED-FRI...BUT WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR ESPECIALLY WED IN SHOWERS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TO AROUND
5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER
THE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
AND THUS THE SEAS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/FARRAR
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/FARRAR/CB
MARINE...DUDA/FARRAR/CB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.