Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300553
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1053 PM MST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MONDAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED WARM UP TO OUR
TEMPERATURES AND A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WET WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH COOL WET WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY TIME WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
7500 FEET AND DROP DOWN TO AROUND 7000 FEET IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /332 PM MST/...FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. ON SATURDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG ARIZONA`S WESTERN BORDER. THIS WILL MAKE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES. THEN BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW LIFTS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. ON MONDAY, FORCING
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
AND LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WET. AT THIS POINT, THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF PRECIPITATION - ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE A CONSERVATIVE
ESTIMATE AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER. TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM RUNS SUGGEST AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET. THE
LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING AND A QUICK
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA
DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMING CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY CAUSE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS - WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER POSSIBLY RETURNING TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
LINGER AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING OCNL MVFR
CONDITIONS TO HIGH ELEVATION SITES OVERNIGHT. AFT 15Z SAT...EXPECT
SCT-NMRS -SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF A KPRC- KPAN-KRQE LINE. EAST OF THIS LINE EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
COOL, BREEZY, AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUING. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS WETTER.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
MONDAY. A PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/RR
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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