Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
425 AM MST Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect the daily pattern of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms to resume today as monsoonal moisture
returns to the region. This pattern will stick around through most
of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Southerly flow will continue to bring higher PW
values north and west into the state for the next several days. A
weak area of low pressure moving into southwest New Mexico early
this morning is also helping to push moisture northward and is
providing some forcing to the eastern and central zones. This weak
synoptic lift has led to the development of a few light showers from
Flagstaff south and southeast.

We expect decent coverage today due to this airmass. Steering flow
supports early development along the Mogollon Rim, pushing west and
southwest in the afternoon. Steering flow becomes southerly Monday
and then southwesterly through the middle of the week. Monday is
likely to remain active, but a slight drying trend will develop by
Tuesday as flow turns southwest.

This flow pattern is due to a quasi-stationary low off the southern
California coast and high pressure over west Texas. By the end of
the week, this low is set to open up and move east. There may be an
uptick in activity Thursday as the low moves across the state, then
followed by drier conditons as westerly flow and warmer mid-level
temperatures develop behind the low.

Long story short, expect a return to low or medium grade monsoon
conditions for the next several days.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...ISOLD -SHRA will continue early
this morning. Expect more numerous SHRA/TSRA developing after 17Z
with the highest coverage over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers will persist this morning. Deeper
moisture begins to return to much of northern Arizona today, with
chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms continuing
through Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Thunderstorm chances persist through the
period, with generally light winds outside of storm activity.






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