Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270405
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 PM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF FLAGSTAFF TO
THE  FOUR CORNERS. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF  THE WEEK...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FOUR  CORNERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN UT/NORTHERN AZ AROUND THE
LARGER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. WILL MAKE
MINOR TWEAKS TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD FORECASTS OVERNIGHT TO
CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CONTINUES TO TO MOVE THROUGH UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE  ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. OVER ALL...THIS WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND
DRIER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND THE COMING
WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE UTAH BORDER
AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE KPGA TERMINAL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR
THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/MAS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...KD



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