Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN UNDER THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREV DISCUSSION 400 AM...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION AND DEEPENING
MONSOON MOISTURE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR MOVED INTO EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...WHICH HAMPERED CONVECTION.
THERE IS STILL SOME DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS IN THESE SAME
AREAS...BUT BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY PEAKING ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A
STANDARD PATTERN THEN REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS...A FAIRLY NORMAL WEEK LIES AHEAD WITH MODERATE GRADE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS...POSSIBLY HIGH GRADE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z THEN DECREASING COVERAGE. IMPACTS
ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM MODERATE HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....41/ PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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