Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 252148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
245 PM MST MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will increase across northern Arizona
from south to north through Tuesday. Expect good coverage of
showers and thunderstorms especially over the mountains. On
Wednesday dry air should move southward leading to an isolated storm
from I-40 northward. Elsewhere expect scattered storms to continue
from the Mogollon Rim region south.


We have an active afternoon underway, with strong thunderstorms now
developing across Yavapai county. Storms along the Mogollon Rim have
produced heavy rainfall, with a few sites reporting .30 - .40 of an
inch 15 minutes. Similar rates should be expected in Yavapai county
this afternoon and evening.

Made a few changes to the forecast package, namely to warm temps up
a few degrees this Weds and Thurs.


.PREV DISCUSSION 423 AM..A subtropical high is positioned to the
east of Arizona and a subtropical low is positioned to the
southwest...both the clockwise and counter clockwise circulation
respectively are helping draw much deeper subtropical moisture
northward into Arizona with 1.5 inch PW creeping into southern parts
of the state with 1.0 inch PW moving north of I-40. Areas to the
north of I-40 will see thunderstorms however not as widespread south
of I-40 storm are forecast to be more widespread today. The
subtropical moisture is forecast to spread northward toward the Utah
border on Tuesday with storms becoming more widespread on Tuesday.
The main threat from these storms will be hail...strong gusty
winds...and localized heavy rain.

On Wednesday...The subtropical high shifts to the northwest of
Arizona...slowly bring drier air into northern Arizona primarily
to the north of I-40 with fewer storms. To the south moisture is
forecast to remain deep enough for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This pattern is forecast to persist through Friday.

Through the weekend...the subtropical high is forecast to move east
into New Mexico with a moist SE subtropical flow returning and
bringing deeper subtropical moisture back into northern Arizona by
Sunday. This moist pattern is forecast to continue into next week
with subtropical weather disturbances moving northwest across the
area helping to enhance afternoon and overnight thunderstorm

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
will continue to move across the area this afternoon. MVFR and IFR
possible in heavy rain and small hail, with gusty winds also
possible near storm activity. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.





PUBLIC...41 / TC

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