Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211118
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST ARIZONA VALLEYS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...THEN BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST AZ VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY RETURNING
AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
INTO ARIZONA. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT IS LIKELY
TO BE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER ARIZONA
WILL BE DUE TO A DEEP LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND RIDGING OFF THE
WEST COAST. WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 9-12
THOUSAND FOOT MSL LAYER WILL REACH 40-65KT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS OVER AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND THE
NORTH SIDE OF FLAGSTAFF. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15
DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. KEPT JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. COOLER BUT FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA VALLEYS TODAY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL LINGER IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM PAGE TO
WINSLOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN EXPAND AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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