Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
417 AM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Two additional winter storms will continue to affect
the region, the first is currently moving through the area and
will slowly decrease through the day Saturday and the second late
Sunday through Monday. These will be cold systems, with heavy snow
accumulations across the high country. Hazardous driving
conditions should be anticipated. Expect precipitation to wind
down Tuesday with very cold temperatures through Thursday.


Moisture associated with upper level trough continues to move into
arizona and form along the higher terrain of the Grand Canyon
State. Widespread precipitation is already starting to give way to
a more showery precipitation pattern in Coconino County. THis
trend should push eastward throughout the morning hours as the
trough axis move across the state. Additional accumulation should
be light with the heavier amounts over the higher terrain of the
eastern parts of Arizona...mainly the White Mountains. Generally
speaking locations between 5500 and 7000 feet should see
additional accumulations between 1-4 inches. Elevations at or
above 7000 feet could see between 2-8 inches with the mountain
peeks receiving even more. For more details about a specific
location please use the point specific map at:

Behind the front a weak induced ridge will form over the
Southwestern United States Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening. This ridge will provide a brief respite from the
precipitation...however temperatures are expected to remain cold.
Another storm will move into the area Sunday night and will bring
another round of significant precipitation with it. Snowfall
amounts generally look to be in the 6-12 inch range for locations
above 6500 feet. Lesser amounts can be expected between 5000 and
6500 feet. With a snow level once again hovering around 5000 feet.

By Tuesday afternoon clearing conditions are expected however cold
air will reside across the region through at least Thursday with
overnight lows expected to drop down near zero degrees in prone
locations with widespread single digits to teens across the high
country. Lower elevations like the Little Colorado River Valley
will see values closer to low 20s... with the lowest elevations
struggling to climb back into the mid thirties. Temperatures will
slowly begin to rebound by next weekend however the significant
snow cover will work against any quick warming trend..and could
allow for extremely cold temperatures in the high altitude cold
basins tuesday night and beyond if clear skies and calm winds
develop. For the time being have not jumped onto these extremely
cold conditions for mid week just yet.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Rain and snow will continue early
this morning with LIFR ceilings and visibilities in occasionally
heavy rain and snow likely. In addition, expect southwest winds with
gusts into the 20 to 30 knot range. Precipitation will begin to
taper off from west to east after 18Z, but periods of MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilities in showers over higher terrain may persist
through 00Z. After 00Z, look for improving conditions with only a
slight chance of showers. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ016>018.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MST today FOR AZZ004-006>008-015-

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today FOR AZZ011-014.




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