Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
332 PM MST Fri Oct 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will lead to warm and dry conditions
through Saturday. A low pressure system moving onto the West Coast
early next week will draw increasing moisture into Arizona. A few
showers may start on Sunday, but chances for rainfall peak on
Monday. Expect clearing from west to east on Tuesday with a return
to dry weather.


Models continue to predict warm dry conditions through the next few
days as high pressure dominates the region. Shortwave energy will
move through the ridge Sunday and monday providing a source of
instability as moisture begins to move up from the Pacific and Gulf
of California. Some showers will be possible sunday...but the bulk
of the precipitation is expected to occur on Monday.
Various model solutions continue to differ on amounts and
locations of highest precipitation, however confidence is building
that some locations could see precipitation totals great than half
an inch of liquid from this system. The most likely locations for
the heavier amounts at this point looks to be the usual suspects
of higher terrain, especially the Kiabab Plateau and Mogollon Rim.

After the system moves out of the area tuesday dry stable air
associated with the large scale ridge still centered off of West
Texas will dominate the remainder of the long term forecast. Dry
and mild conditions are anticipated through the end of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Light winds should dominate in the evening
hours and through the overnight at most locations.  Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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