Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 291030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
330 AM MST Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue through the end of the week
into the first half of next week. Breezy conditions will be possible
Saturday and Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow aloft will maintain dry conditions
over northern Arizona through the end of the week. A decaying trough
entering into the western US will likely generate breezy conditions
Saturday, and possibly again Sunday with dry conditions persisting.

By Monday, high pressure begins to build over the SW CONUS and is
progged to remain in place through mid-week. Temperatures will be on
a warming trend next week as a result. The latest ECMWF tries to
draw moisture northward hinting at a monsoon pattern after July 4.
However, the latest GFS keeps the ridge staunchly in place over
the four corners region through Thursday. Given the model
discrepancies, will keep slight chance of thunderstorms in the
White Mountains for the extended.


.AVIATION...For the 12z package... Light and variable winds will
dominate the early morning hours. SW wind 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25
kt after 18z Thu. Winds should decrease around sunset as diurnal
mixing shuts off. Smoke from area wildfires may affect flight paths.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will lessen in intensity today and Friday
below critical fire thresholds. Temperatures will remain slightly
above normal. No precipitation is expected over the next few days.

Saturday through Monday...Thunderstorm chances will remain low with
only a slight chance in the White Mountains on Monday. Winds speeds
will slightly increase over the weekend and early next week but
remain below critical fire thresholds. Temperatures will be slightly
above normal through this period.






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