Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 292220

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Just enough moisture will linger through the coming
week for a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms each day.
Near normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, then the
warmest weather so far this year is likely by the middle of the
week and into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Southwest flow ahead of an upper low near Los
Angeles has pushed drier mid-level air into much of the region
today. Limited moisture still remains over the northern portions
of the state where spotty mid-level convection will continue
through this evening. Elsewhere, sunny to partly cloudy skies
expected. Expect similar conditions on Monday as the low slowly
moves toward Arizona. Temperatures today and Monday will also stay
relatively unchanged (near average) as heights fall slightly.

This low will move through the area Tuesday and Wednesday with
just enough mid-level moisture to bring a slight chance of high-
based convection (thunderstorms) back to many areas. An
amplified ridge of high pressure builds over the area by the end
of the week, bringing the this year`s warmest temperatures to
date. The increased surface heating and continued presence of
limited mid-level moisture will keep a slight chance of high-
based convection in the forecast through the end of the forecast


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Sct-bkn cu/sc/tcu with bases from
10-12kft agl will dissipate by 02z. These convective clouds exist
north of a line from KGCN-KRQE and may produce isold or single cell
virga showers with sfc wnd gusts to 35kts. Expect VFR and clear
skies elsewhere, with s-se winds 10-20kts becoming light and vrb
this evening. Expect similar conditions on Monday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A slow moving and weak upper low will bring south to
southwest flow to the area again on Monday. The airmass ahead of
this low has mixed out today and is quite dry. Only a very slight
chance of high-based convection can be expected near the Utah
border. By Tuesday, this low moves into the district with somewhat
lighter and more westerly winds. High-based convective development
will spread back south and east, but coverage will remain isolated
at best.

Wednesday through Friday...The threat for high-based convection will
persist through this period, although coverage will be sparse. Winds
will be light, with poor ventilation at night. Daytime temperatures
will begin to rise to the highest levels recorded so far this year
by Thursday and Friday.






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