Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 210600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE VARIOUS FORECAST ELEMENTS FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY TRANQUIL UNDER
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AT THIS HOUR. WITH A MIX OF CALM TO
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN PLACE...HOURLY TEMPS ARE
EXHIBITING A FAIRLY VARIED MIX OF 40S AND 50S...AND BASED ON A
MIX OF VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODEL/GUIDANCE SETS...NUDGED UP LOWS AN
AVERAGE OF 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED TO BOTTOM OUT 42-45. AS FOR PATCHY FOG MENTION
INTRODUCED BY PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWA...IT IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY WITH TIME...AS BEST MENTIONABLE FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO BE SETTING UP GENERALLY 50-75+ MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA IN
WESTERN KS. CONSIDERED PULLING THE LOCAL FOG MENTION WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT WILL LET IT RIDE FOR NOW AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUANCE BETWEEN 3-4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS HAS
BROUGHT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITION TO OUR REGION.  UNDER
FULL INSOLATION AFTN TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE MO RIVER
TONIGHT AND RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.  IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DPS RISING NEAR OR IN THE
50S BY AFTN.

EARLIER THIS MORNING AN AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ALONG THE SFC RIDGE AXIS AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT.
ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THE LOWER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA.  EVEN ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS
THERE WAS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST IN CASE.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES FORCING THE
UPPER RIDGE TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST.  THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM
FOR LATE OCTOBER AND WE ARE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER DAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
START IN THE WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE IS ALSO ABOUT 300 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY CAVEAT BEING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER-END MVFR CEILING MATERIALIZING DURING THE
LATTER HOURS OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL ONLY HINT
AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH A SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD MENTION AS THERE ARE
PLENTY OF MIXED MESSAGES IN MODEL DATA. ALSO DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) MAY BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FORMAL TAF MENTION...BUT GIVEN THIS IS
WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND RE- EVALUATE FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND NEARLY ZERO
RISK OF PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT
LIGHT/SOUTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY DURING
THE LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGE
AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS 20+KT...WITH THESE WINDS THEN DECREASING A
BIT DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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