Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 052324
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS HIGH-AMPLITUDE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS WHAT IS HELPING TO
INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH NORTHWEST.

A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY NUDGE EAST...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE TRI-CITIES UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN. WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...I AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. THE JET WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT NEAR 40 KTS OR SO...SO WIND
MAY INCREASE A TOUCH IN OUR WEST OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS NEAR
50...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT FAR OFF THE MARK FOR WHAT IS AVERAGE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...MORE IN THE 15 TO 18 C RANGE RATHER THAN THE 12 TO 15 C WE
ARE SEEING TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PUTTING US WITHIN THE REALM OF SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING...SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR
HIGHS FRIDAY WITHOUT MUCH PROBLEM. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BE MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED...BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY...PROBABLY IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE. AGAIN...PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SO DRY
THAT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AND MOST INITIATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER N AMERICA. A VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CONUS AND N AMERICA AND THE ADJOINING OCEANS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES IN A VERY BLOCKY
PATTERN.

A TROF OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NE USA FRI-SUN...SENDING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA.
THIS TROF WILL ALSO SQUASH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE UPR LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL WOBBLE THRU THE WRN USA
SAT-SUN...BEING STRETCHED AND PULLED AS VARIOUS VORT MAXIMA ORBIT
ITS PERIPHERY. THE 1ST VORT MAX OF INTEREST WILL LIFT INTO CO SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. BY 12Z/SUN THIS VORT MAX WILL TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY LOW AND LIFT N ALONG THE NEB/WY BORDER DURING THE DAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE LAGGING TROF INTO THE DESERT SW WILL ADVANCE
INTO CO/NM TO THE S OF THE LOW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE PLAINS MON.
A POTENT TROF WILL DIVE OUT OF SW CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUN-
MON...WITH A LOW PROBABLY CLOSING OFF OVER MT/WY/DAKOTAS TUE. THE
LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC SUGGEST THIS LOW WILL BECOME CUT-OFF AND
LINGER OVER THE NRN PLAINS WED-THU AS PART OF A BROAD TROF OVER THE
CNTRL USA.

SURFACE: THE CANADIAN COOL FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SETTLE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER SAT...WHILE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER CO. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE ROUGH CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z
EC/NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN IS THAT IT WILL SINK INTO KS SUN...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR S AS I-70. BUT DOES THE FRONT LIFT BACK INTO NEB IN THE
AFTERNOON? A BIG AND IMPORTANT QUESTION. THE SFC LOW SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS WRN KS INTO ERN NEB BY 00Z/TUE...WITH A DRY TROF (DRYLINE/LEE
TROF COMBO) ACCOMPANYING ITS PASSAGE. CANADIAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE BACK SIDE SHOULD SINK THRU MON NIGHT WITH THIS FRONT STALLING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER BY DAYBREAK WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS WED-THU...BUT THAT`S NO GUARANTEE OF DRY WX WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT NEARBY.

THE SPECIFICS ARE NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW
AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND TUE PENDING WHAT HAPPENS ALOFT WITH THE
CUT-OFF.

SOME DAILY DETAILS...

FOR BREVITY SAKE THE BOTTOM LINE IS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. RAIN RE-
ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND...AND A PERIOD OR TWO OF SVR TSTMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY AND PROVIDE SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT. MUCH CAN CHANGE...BUT FOR NOW...

SAT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE EML ADVECTED OVER THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL CAP. HOWEVER...SCT TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE IN FROM THE W SAT EVE/NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SVR WX...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 1000 J/KG WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. THE COLD OUTFLOW FROM THESE TSTMS COULD EFFECTIVELY SHOVE
THE FRONT FURTHER S TO NEAR I-70.

WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A BAND OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY
SOME FOG SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST AREA N
OF THE FRONT. WE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER. AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN BIG BUST POTENTIAL IN HIGH TEMPS SUN. AND IF THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK N INTO THE FCST AREA...WE MAY NOT BE NEARLY WARM
ENOUGH.

SUN: LOW PRES WILL BE OVER N-CNTRL KS ALONG AND E-W ORIENTED FRONT.
A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S FROM THIS LOW. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR...S AND E OF THE LOW. N OF
THE FRONT IT ALL DEPENDS ON IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS AND THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE SVR TSTMS ALSO HINGES ON IF THE FRONT LIFTS N AT ALL.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. CONT TO MONITOR FUTURE FCSTS.

MON-THU: DRY MUCH OF THE TIME WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY ROUGHLY 4 PM-9 PM. TUE NIGHT THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROF COULD KEEP TSTM POTENTIAL GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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