Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 281739
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1139 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY AREAS
OF THE LOUP BASIN AND UPPER PLATTE BASIN DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. OTHER AREAS HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 18 DEGREE RANGE
THANKS IN PART TO A LIGHT BUT STEADY WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND.

LOOK FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDS.
CHANGES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD PRIMARILY OCCUR TONIGHT. SAGGING
COLD AIR WILL START TO TAKE HOLD AS WINDS TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST.
MODELS DO SUGGEST LOWER CLOUDS WILL DROP INTO THE AREA WITH THE
NORTHEAST WIND. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
CALM...AND WITH A BIT OF MELTING WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF IT WAS
A BIT HAZY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL START TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK PRETTY...ROUGHLY TWO TENTHS OR LESS. HAVE A BIT OF
CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE PER LAST EPISODE
AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS MOVE IN. WILL NOT ADD AT THIS TIME BUT
MIGHT BE WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE IS
MOISTURE AND EXPECT THERE TO BE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE MONDAY DURING THE DAY AS
THE SNOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SNOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND AN INCH ARE STILL EXPECTED.

BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ON TUESDAY AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

BY WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS
AND SOME LATE DAY WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER AS THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THERE IS WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AND
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AGAIN SATURDAY. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

WRF CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN. SOME CONCERN ABOUT
LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE THIS EVENING /LAST 3-4 HOURS OF FORECAST/
WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST WIND AND SOME MELT...BUT WAIN/T
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED CLOUDS NEW 15000FT AGL WILL BE NOTED TODAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DECREASING CEILING LEVEL EXPECTED BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MVFR TO IFR CEILING WILL BE
REALIZED AT BOTH TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A CEILING AT 900FT AGL STARTING 09Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED DURING THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...BUT GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT
LEAST SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BR AS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE IN THE VICINITY OF A PASSING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. WENT AHEAD WITH 5SM IN BR 09Z ONWARD AS A RESULT. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL START OFF WEAK BUT INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...BECOMING SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER TONIGHT AN INCREASING TO
AROUND 14KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT


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