Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 062053
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED A 700 MB JET OVER THE AREA OF AROUND 22 KTS...WHICH IS BEING
MIXED INTO AND CAUSING SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
THE REGION.  GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TEMPERATURE
COOLS AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES WITH THE 20 KT WINDS ALOFT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE MAIN JET LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY.
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR SOME LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW.  BASED ON THE MIXING UP TO 700 MB FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET
WILL BE POSITIONED.  OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST THRU THE ROCKIES BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY...THEN OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE LEVEL
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE MAIN WX
FEATURE WITH A FEW LEE-SIDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH AIDS IN INCREASING TEMPS WITH STRONG WAA ON SW FLOW.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCE FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD
W/ TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS INVERTED RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO AREA AS TROUGH PASSES. OVERALL SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT MORE IN UPSLOPE REGION AS REGION UNDER
EASTERLY FETCH.

FOR AREA TEMPS THOUGH...925MB NUMBERS WILL RANGE FROM +12C TO +15C
OVER THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGHS...AND +17C TO NEAR +21C
FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CAA WITH SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
GOING TO GIVE THE AREA HIGH TEMPS 5-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S FOR SUN-MON...AND 60S TO NEAR 70S(WED)
FOR REST OF TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO START UP TO THE MID 30S BY END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DRY AND CALM WEATHER. AN OCCASIONAL GUST CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT AT KGLD LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK



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