Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 140311
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
911 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

JUST COMPLETED ANOTHER UPDATE. PRECIPITATION IS ENDING AND
ADJUSTED TRENDS TO MATCH THIS. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE
BY 06Z. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ELEVATED CAPE IS STILL IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED INHIBITION NOT THAT
HIGH. SO LEFT THE CHANCE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO A RAIN COOLED
AIR MASS IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...HAD TO ADJUST
OVERNIGHT MINS DOWN. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT.

ADJUST PRECIPITATION FOR TOMORROW. LOOKS TO BE SOME PRECIPITATION
IN THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY MID MORNING. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH CURRENT THUNDERSTORM/RAINFALL
ACTIVITY. SUBTLE MID LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH MESOSCALE PROCESSES
HAVE MAINTAINED AND INCREASED COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS COMPARED WITH
HRRR...WILL BE RAISING POPS DRAMATICALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF
HERE SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
REMNANT MCV CENTERED NEAR TRIBUNE FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH
IS ENHANCING CLOUD COVER IN THAT AREA WHICH ALSO INITIATED A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF LIFT ELSEWHERE...AS ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IS INDICATED IN QVECTORS. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING
WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BY
MONDAY EVENING WITH BETTER COVERAGE TIED TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL
EAST OF THE CWA. I LIMITED COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MONDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW (CENTERED OVER
GREAT LAKES) AND WILL BRING MUCH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VERY GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS
(ORIGINATING IN THE GULF) WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA...AND WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS
OF PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
(1.2-1.5")...AND TOTAL EVENT QPF VALUES AT LEAST 1" OR HIGHER.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SOME WARMING (MID 70S
IN THE WEST...LOW 70S EAST).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION (POSSIBLY MORE OF A HEAVY
DRIZZLE THAN RAIN) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH A COOL AIR MASS ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL LIKELY REACH A RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR THE DAY.
IN FACT IF WE REMAIN SOCKED IN ALL DAY WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS MUCH
WARMER THAN 60F. I TRENDED TEMPS DOWN WED AND MAY STILL BE TOO WARM
(CURRENTLY HAVE MID-UPPER 60S). AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AND SLIGHT MODERATION
OF THE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. SOME GUIDANCE STILL LINGERS LIGHT
PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY...THOUGH OTHER THAN A
LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MOST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION...SO I LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND SHOULD SUPPORT A WARMING TREND
BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND COMBINES IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THIS RANGE IT IS HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS SO
I LIMITED POPS TO 20/30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SITE. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM LATER TONIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. SO KEPT THE VCTS MENTION. KGLD WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AT LEAST MID EVENING. BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN
GOING ON UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM COMES ACROSS. AFTER 04Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD
STAY VFR WITH THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER






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