Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
302 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area by mid
afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves out of the central
Rockies. The environment will be weakly to moderately unstable,
with the best instability from southwest Nebraska into northeast
Colorado, but weakly sheared, with deep layer shear of only
15-20 kts. The only surface boundary in the area will be an ill-
defined lee trough in northeast Colorado. The severe threat will
be marginal at best due to the weak shear, but cannot rule out a
few storms producing quarter sized hail in the area of greatest
instability. Despite slow storm motions, not really seeing any
heavy qpf bullseyes in the global models in our area, but still
think there is a low risk for locally heavy rain, mainly in
southwest Nebraska this evening. Storms will linger into the
overnight hours while gradually weakening. Temperatures today will
be slightly above normal.

Upper ridge rebuilds over the central plains on Friday and having
a hard time finding any forcing for convection. The environment
will be weakly unstable and deep layer shear around 20 kts. Models
have only widely scattered storms to the north and south during
the day but dry in the local area, then isolated lingering storms
during the evening. At this time, will keep it dry both periods due
to lack of synoptic scale forcing. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal.

By Saturday start to get into more of a northwest flow pattern
with ridge building over the Great Basin and a shortwave trough
moving across the northern plains. Storms will develop in northern
Nebraska in the afternoon and then slide southeast Saturday
night, possibly clipping the eastern part of the forecast area.
Environment will again be only weakly unstable, but deep layer
shear is better with the northwest flow aloft, at around 30 kts.
As a result, might see a marginal risk for severe storms,
primarily in southwest Nebraska Saturday evening. Temperatures
remain near to slightly above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Sunday and Monday: High pressure will remain in place over the Great
Basin on Sunday with northwesterly flow over the CWA. A weak cold
front will traverse the region during the late evening and overnight
hours with a chance of thunderstorm development along the associated
850mb theta-e boundary. There will be between 1500 and 2200 J/Kg of
CAPE in place; however, weak environmental shear, both shallow and
deep, will limit the potential for severe thunderstorms. The front
will clear the region overnight with cooler and drier conditions
prevailing on Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday: The ridge of high pressure will slide
eastward, elongating slightly and encompassing much of the central
High Plains. Look for dry conditions as we will be on the eastern
periphery of this H5 high with prevailing subsidence and dry air
inhibiting thunderstorm development. High temperatures will warm
slightly each day but will remain near to just above the seasonal
averages for the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at the GLD and MCK terminals. Gusty winds will
diminish after sunset tonight.




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