Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
426 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

The southern branch upper low pressure center dissipates as it
lifts out of the region to the northeast this evening ahead of the
northern branch upper trough that sweeps across the Northern
Plains states tonight. This will push the cold surface high
pressure area eastward out of the Central High Plains region
tonight and Monday as a lee trough deepens along the Front Range.
The light northerly surface flow goes light and variable this
evening with winds turning to the west and southwest across the
forecast area during the day on Monday ahead of the surface
trough. Expect conditions to remain dry with high temperatures on
Monday to be well into the 50s under clear skies with westerly

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

Monday night-Tuesday night...may see a few mid and high level
clouds through the period otherwise dry with above normal low and
high temperatures. Low temperatures both nights generally in the
low to mid/upper 20s. High temperatures Tuesday in the low to mid

Wednesday-Wednesday night...upper flow shifts to the southwest late
in the day ahead of an upper level trough diving southeast into
Nevada and Utah. This trough deepens with a closed 500mb low over
much of Utah by 12z Thursday per GFS/GEM/ECMWF which is a little
slower compared to 24 hours ago. 850mb temperatures warm into the 9C
to 13C range which is warmer compared to 24 hours ago. This would
support high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. For the
overnight hours high clouds increase in coverage from the northwest
with winds veering around to the north and northwest across the
western 1/2 of the area by sunrise as the cold front approaches.
Compared to 24 hours ago the trend for this model cycle is to slow
the arrival of the cold front and precipitation. Low temperatures in
the low to upper 20s.

Thursday...todays GFS/ECMWF continue to advertise breezy north winds
during the day as a cold front moves through. For the nighttime
hours 10 to 20 mph winds expected. The ECMWF is several degrees
colder at 850mb compared to the GFS which limits any confidence in
any one solution. Todays MEX guidance which is based off the GFS is
considerably warmer compared to yesterday as well. The 12z GEFS
ensemble 2m temperature shows readings somewhat near the official
forecast ranging from the low 30s northwest to around 40 far south
for highs. Low temperatures generally in the 10 to 15 degree range.
Regarding precipitation chances, through 18z there is a large mid
level dry slot over the area oriented northeast to southwest with
some moisture below 700mb confined to the far north through
northwest and western parts of the area. Current forecast of slight
chance to low chance pops for this area may be overdone, especially
if the GFS were to be used. Regardless, only a light mix of rain
and/or snow is expected. For the afternoon the closed upper low is
forecast to reach the four corners area with the bulk of the better
850-500mb moisture remaining generally north of the interstate. Will
continue with slight chance to low chance pops for light snow. For
the overnight hours the closed low weakens while its parent upper
trough and axis of 850-500mb moisture move through. This will
support at least slight chance to low chance pops for light snow
across nearly the entire area.

Friday...light snow chances end in the morning from west to east as
the trough moves away from the area. Under a mostly to partly sunny
sky high temperatures should reach the low to mid 30s. The chance
for light snow returns to the northwest 1/3 or so of the area
overnight as another surge of moisture moves in ahead of another
longwave trough within a larger trough covering much of the western
states into the southern plains. Low temperatures again in the 10 to
15 degree range.

Saturday...chance for light snow expands across all of the forecast
area through the period as plentiful moisture in the 850-700mb
column resides over the area. The large area of moisture in the 850-
700mb layer is also in the favorable snow growth zone temperature
wise which could support a little higher amounts and precipitation
chances in later forecasts. A reinforcing shot of colder air moves
in with a 10 to 20 mph wind during the day. 850mb temperatures of
-10C to -15C expected with current forecast highs in the low to mid
20s. This may be on the warm side even when considering full mixing
at 850mb. Low temperatures look to range from around 5F to 12F
across the area. area of 850-500mb moisture and precipitation chances
area generally along and north of the interstate. 850mb temperatures
remain similar to Saturdays numbers if not a tad colder and for that
wont change current forecast of upper teens to mid 20s.

Looking out beyond day 7 the GFS would support some light snow
Christmas eve with both GFS and ECMWF showing dry conditions for
Christmas day. Not much in the way of wind but it will remain cold
per forecast 850mb temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 426 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminals, with virga possible early in the TAF period
(before 03Z). Light and variable winds are expected this evening
with high pressure slowly retreating eastward. Winds eventually
shift to the southwest and will prevail 7-10kt by 05Z through the
remaining TAF period.




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