Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 311155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
555 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Cooler temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday are
expected today across the Central High Plains region in the wake
of a cold front that moved through the region overnight.

The main upper trough axis in the split flow aloft over the U.S.
moves east across the Central High Plains region this evening with
ridging over the southwest U.S. to move east and affect the
forecast area from Thursday through Friday night

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain of Colorado and move east over the plains of Eastern
Colorado and Western Kansas in association with the upper trough
moving east of the Rockies. Storms are expected to stay mostly
along and south of Interstate 70 this afternoon and evening,
diminishing overnight tonight. Dryer and warmer conditions are
expected over the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper ridging moves in from the southwest and higher pressure
moves into the plains states at the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The extended period continues to be in good agreement between the
models that the ridge in the western CONUS is still impacting the
CWA. Friday and Saturday still show dry, warm conditions over the
region. For Sunday and Monday night, there are chances for some
precipitation. Current model runs show potential for rain/storms due
to a closed low, that has been sitting over central California,
being pushed and absorbed into the ridges flow those days. With this
happening, moisture from Mexico/Gulf of Mexico gets pulled up and
helps with precip chances. The GFS and European are differing with
precip chances on Sunday. The GFS doesn`t show anything whereas the
Euro does. For Monday, models are in agreement but timing is a
little different; this could be due to the exact placement of the
ridge in the west and the trough in the east. Time will tell which
one holds true. Currently, Monday night looks best for storm
potential with surface CAPEs around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear around
45 kts. Will keep an eye on the storm potential as the day draws


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 444 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at GLD and
MCK. A few showers and thunderstorms may move into the vicinity of
GLD between 21-03Z, but confidence in any discrete storm moving
over the GLD TAF site is currently low. Have left out any mention
of TSRA for now.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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