Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 131717
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1217 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MIDCOAST
MAINE. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1210 PM...BUMPED UP AMTS MORE ON THE ISLANDS IN PENOBSCOT
BAY...12-18" HERE...WITH UP TO AFOOT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST
COAST OF THE BAY...AND SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU MOVE N AND WEST. SFC
COLD FRONT DISRUPTING THE NORLUN TROUGH ATTM THIS TIME...AND THIS
IS HANDLED WELL BY HRRR/WRF/NAM12. THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH GET REORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON IN PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SAME
SPOT IT WAS...BUT LOOKS LIKE NEVER QUITE WITH THE VIGOR OF THIS
MORNING...SO ADDL ACCUMS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA...SEVERAL MORE
INCHES...BUT PROB NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS THIS MORNING. IT DOES
START TO SHIFT BACK WEST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT
THE SNOW TO SHIFT INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND MAYBE TOWARD CASCO
BAY...BUT THIS WOULD BE LIGHTER. OTHERWISE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AND OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA NEAR THE TROUGH TEMPS WILL BE FALLING FROM HERE ON OUT.

1015 AM...AFTER RECEIVING SOME SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE PENOBSCOT
REGION...HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMTS FOR HIGHER ACCUMS ON THE ISLANDS
IN THE BAY AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL TOWNS...AND A SHARPER
GRADIENT AS YOU MOVE N AND W AWAY FROM THE SNOW. A FOOT OR MORE
IS POSSIBLE ON NORTH HAVEN...VINALHAVEN AND ISLESBORO...WITH
CLOSE TO THAT IN PLACES ALONG THE SHORE LIKE ROCKLAND...ROCKPORT
AND CAMDEN.

PREVIOUSLY...ARCTIC FRONT IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN MAINE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. HAD SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT PUSHED INTO EASTERN NEW YORK BUT THAT
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL LOOKING
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING.

AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP SOUTH OF
MIDCOAST MAINE PRODUCING A VERY LOCALIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW JUST OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONALLY PUSHING INTO THE
ROCKLAND AREA. EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
MIDCOAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH BECOMES
MORE DEFINED AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS BOUNDARY
TIGHTENS.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFS IN WHERE THIS TROUGH AXIS SETS UP
BUT CURRENT BUOY DATA CURRENTLY SHOW IT JUST EAST OR ROCKLAND.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL BE STICKING WITH CURRENT WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE MID COAST AREA. GOOD FLUFF FACTOR AND
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE WARNING
AREA OF KNOX AND COASTAL WALDO COUNTIES. AREAS SURROUNDING THESE
COUNTIES WILL SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST OF THIS
AREA...MAY SEE PRECIP WRAP BACK TO THE WEST AS FAR AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE REACH BY LATE MORNING BEFORE FALLING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING IN MIDCOAST AREAS AS
INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT
CLOUDINESS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
HOISTED FOR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
WITH ADVISORIES FOR THE COAST. LOOKING FOR LOWS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW
IN THE NORTH AND 5 TO 15 BELOW IN THE SOUTH.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY BUT DESPITE THE SUN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE NORTH
WILL ONLY TOP AT 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE AND WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS CHILLY AS AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW SKIES TO BE
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CREATING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS F NORTH TO THE
SINGLE NEGATIVE DIGITS F SOUTH AND APPROACHING ZERO ALONG THE
COAST. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER CANADA...HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND TRAVEL NE DEEPENING TO ABOUT A 995MB CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN NH AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OCCURRING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL SNOW MONDAY
INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WE WILL
SEE A NON-NOCTURNAL CURVE AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY... WITH AN
AREA OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INTERFACE AS
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ALOFT ON A STRONG 850MB LLJ OF 75
KTS. MOST AREAS WILL SWITCH TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL HANG ONTO SNOW LONGER. LOOKING AT THE
QPF... THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT... ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEBANON NH TO THE LAKES REGION OF MAINE.
THIS WOULD ALSO DEPEND ON THE FLUFF FACTOR AND AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A MORE NORMAL OR WETTER SNOW THAN WE HAVE
BEEN HAVING RECENTLY...INDICATING SNOW RATIOS BETWEEN 1:10 AND
1:13.

AS THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BRIEFLY MAKING FOR A WARM WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR A TIME... AT LEAST
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY STILL BE
BELOW NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. IT IS QUICKLY PUSHED TO THE
EAST BY MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES... SETTING US UP FOR ANOTHER LARGE
SURFACE STORM MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN MIDCOAST AREAS
TODAY AND MVFR /IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS ELSEWHERE. BECOMING VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR ON
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THRU MON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON. COULD SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR
LOWER IN SN/FZRA/RA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. ALSO WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME GUSTY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR
THE OUTER WATERS AND SCA`S/HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS FOR THE
BAYS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WAVES NOT INCREASING ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN UNTIL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS THEN INCREASE TO 10 OR MORE FT BY TUESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MEZ012>014-018>022.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ022-
     026.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MEZ023>028.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ027-028.
NH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NHZ004>013-015.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NHZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
     EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SINSABAUGH
SHORT TERM...SINSABAUGH
LONG TERM...HANES
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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