Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 041902
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW
AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS
AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE
HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING
INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM.
OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT
21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA.

EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID-
HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD
START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE
COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME.

SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS
GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT
WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN
AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS
NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS
FOR SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

CEMPA/HANES


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