Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 221833
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...AND CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. NWS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WERE MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF /KPWM/ SITUATED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A FEW POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE SHOULD GO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT EVEN IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DROP OFF. ADJACENT
TO THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE AREAS WHERE WE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR AREAS OF FROST. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS...ENOUGH
WIND AND BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 50S TO LOWER 60S GIVING IT A FALL LIKE FEEL TO THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A A RETURN OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. A DRY...BUT MILD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS.

ON MONDAY...MOISTURE FINALLY RETURNS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INITIALLY...THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MONDAY EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE ACTUAL EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET AS THE
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE
REMAINS THE ABSENCE OF ANY SOLID TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. W WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...WEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO SW ON MONDAY...AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT BOTH DAYS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FINE FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MEZ007>009.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ006-008-009-011-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ001>005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


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