Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 162338 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
638 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 151 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
TEMPS ARE EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
ANAFRONT WITH READINGS IN THE M-U80S. A SHARP 15-20 DEGREE DROP
EXISTS ACROSS THE FRONT IN NC/NW TN. THUS FAR, SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
HAS YET TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF ANYTHING,
WE COULD SEE A FEW POST FRONTAL SHRA, BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LIMITED.
THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE LOW CLOUD COVER AND PSBL DRIZZLE/FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK WAS FOUND
BEHIND THE FRONT SPANNING THE OH VALLEY. SOME OF THIS HAS BECOME A
MORE CELLULAR SC LAYER, BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
TONIGHT PER NAM LOW LEVEL RH PROGS. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO ERODE
FROM NE-SW ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT THRU THE OH AND UPPER TN VALLEY WED NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A
THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SE INTO MID SOUTH/LWR MS VALLEY LASTING INTO THURSDAY.
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION, MUCH OF IT ELEVATED, WILL SPAN THIS GRADIENT
AND LIKELY JUST MISSING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. DRIER E-NELY FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER OUR AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND APPALACHIANS. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE HIGH WILL PUSH INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE AXIS STILL PRESENT THRU THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR MORNING VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN OUR EASTERN VALLEYS. WILL NOT CARRY IN
THE FORECAST JUST YET, BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY OR STRONG FORCING, WE HAVE REMOVED TSRA
FROM DAY 6 WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS RATHER
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, AND
CANADIAN) WRT STRONG AMPLIFICATION AND PLACEMENT OF TROF/RIDGES
ACROSS OUR PORTION OF THE NH. WILL LEAVE DAY 7 ALONE AND HOPEFULLY
SEE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS THIS WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL CLOUD
COVER FILLS BACK IN FROM THE NW PROVIDING MFVR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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