Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 300806
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
306 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ATTM MOST OF THE CWA IS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER STLT DOES SHOW
SOME LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO DEVELOP MAINLY W OF I65. DEPENDING ON SKY
COVER...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE.

A CDFNT EXTENDED FROM NRN TX THRU NW MO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE AN UPPER TROF WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ATTM NOT A LOT
OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...EXCEPT OVER NRN TX. THE CDFNT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TODAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN MO BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF ALSO MOVES TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. THIS
COMBO WILL KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN IN THE FCST FOR TODAY...WITH THE
BEST CHC OF PCPN OVER NW AL. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EVENING THANKS TO DAYTIME HEATING AND FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITIES
BUT VERY WEAK SHEAR. THE THREAT OF SVR WX IS LOW TODAY OVER THE CWA
BUT SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HVY
RAIN. WITH THE CDFNT/UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SCT SHRA AND FEW TSRA.

SUNDAY...THE CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND ALONG WILL DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG
STORMS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. GFS HAS THE CDFNT PRETTY MUCH SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY MONDAY MRNG...BUT AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON MONDAY AFTN WHICH WILL KEEP A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST.
HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

THE GFS SHOWS THAT WE COULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE PCPN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS THE CDFNT WILL NOW BE WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE WARMER (UPPER 80S) DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE...BUT
IT SHOULD AT LEAST BE A LITTLE LESS HUMID.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS GFS SHOWS A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE SERN COASTLINE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM...WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR NOW.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 108 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
VFR CONDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL...WITH SCT AC EXPECTED
FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER STRATOCU BTWN 800-1200
FT MAY DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN SCT AND IS
NOT INCLUDED IN TAF. CU/AC WILL REDEVELOP BY 14Z...WITH SFC WINDS
VEERING TO SSW AND INCREASING TO ARND 10 KTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN
FIRST ARND MSL TOMORROW MORNING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/14Z AND VCTS/18Z. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
SPREAD EWD IMPACTING HSV BY 21Z. THREAT FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA
EVENT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTS SWD
INTO REGION...BUT LEFT TAF AS VCTS ATTM.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  66  81  64 /  50  40  60  30
SHOALS        87  67  82  65 /  50  40  60  30
VINEMONT      86  66  82  65 /  40  40  60  30
FAYETTEVILLE  84  64  79  63 /  40  40  60  30
ALBERTVILLE   86  64  80  63 /  40  40  60  30
FORT PAYNE    85  65  80  63 /  30  40  60  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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