Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 282303
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RECENT 88-D IMAGES INDICATED
THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ALONG THE
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...WITH TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER-MID 90S.

A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP BY SUNSET AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S BY
FRIDAY MORNING. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT...AS
THE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD BE GENERALLY AROUND FIVE DEGREES AT
MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPS INTO
THE MID 90S EXPECTED. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS GOING BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF LOUISIANA TOWARD THE AREA BY SATURDAY...AS THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE OPENS UP TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE AS EVIDENCED BY AN EXPECTED NEARLY DOUBLING OF PWAT VALUES
FROM .90 INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 1.80 INCHES BY 12Z SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ARE
EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE ALSO
TRENDED DOWNWARD TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND
WARMER GFS TEMPS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA. THE
FINAL IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS MAINLY
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. WILL TREND WARMER FOR TUESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS AND LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD LESSEN PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 90S. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED WARMING WITH RIDGE BUILDING
IN.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...FLOW ARND THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
KMSL (BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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