Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 302002
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
302 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN. SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT
AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE TREKS OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S.

A MESSY SPRING LIKE PATTERN THEN STARTS TO SET UP FOR THE WEEK AND
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WHAT BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPACTING
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

STARTING TUESDAY...SURFACE RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL BE
STRETCHING NW TO SE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT WITH DECENT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AS WELL AS 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR
WITH AROUND 20KT OF 0-1K SHEAR...A CHANCE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF MAINE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS IN SOUTHERN TN
AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...WITH THE NAM BEING ESPECIALLY
BULLISH WITH THIS QPF. QUITE A BIT LESS CAPE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
HIGHER SHEAR AND SUPPORT ALOFT LENDING MORE TOWARDS A SMALL
HAIL/STRONG WINDS THREAT. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO FOG/DRIZZLE BETWEEN 6-12Z WED BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN REMAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES TRANSVERSING THE UPPER LEVELS.
THAT ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD LENDS TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BOTH DAYS. IT IS
STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING ANY BETTER BUT SHOULD
EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TIMING
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE FRONT...LIKELY
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH A
MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...RIGHT NOW AFTER 18Z FROM NW TO SE. IT IS A STRONG
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. AS
WELL...A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SO THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW THE DRY LINE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND WITH 50-60 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 20KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR (PER THE GFS) ALONG
WITH OTHER SEVERE PARAMETERS...THESE SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS IS STILL NOT A WELL HANDLED EVENT SO
JUST LEFT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE WORDING FOR NOW BUT IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REST OF SAT AND SUN DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT MANY
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THIS TIME.

A WARMING TREND IN TEMPS BEGINS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD RISING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT THROUGH THE LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER
60S HIGHS/LOWER 40S LOWS...EXISTS SATURDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID SOUTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES, BUT CIGS MAY REMAIN VFR UNLESS SUSTAINED
RAINFALL OCCURS. FORECAST INCLUDES A PROB30 FOR TSRA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    46  72  50  76 /  10  40  40  30
SHOALS        46  71  53  77 /  10  40  30  30
VINEMONT      46  69  51  76 /  10  40  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  43  69  49  72 /  10  30  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   44  68  49  75 /  10  40  40  30
FORT PAYNE    41  69  49  74 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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