Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KHUN 280535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

For 06Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Earlier scattered lower elevation clouds associated with a weak
southward moving boundary, for the most part have faded across the
central Tennessee Valley this evening. Also, a few light showers
formed just south of the forecast area earlier this evening; those
too have dissipated as of this writing. Current mid-evening
temperatures for latter October were on the warm side, ranging in the
60s with light winds.

Mostly clear skies are expected overnight, with lows cooling only
into the low/mid 50s (normal low temperatures are 46 to 47 degrees
this time of year). These temperatures along with similar dewpoint
readings could lead to patchy fog formation before daybreak Friday.
For the overnight, the only changes made were to reduce cloud
coverage, mainly across our northern areas. Made no changes to
overnight low temperature or dewpoint values.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The unseasonably warm and dry pattern will persist into the upcoming
weekend. In fact, as the upper level ridge builds across the region
we could see high temperatures even a category or two higher than
today. We generally trended at or above the model blend consensus
given the atypical dry soil conditions and trends over the past few
days. This will push high temperatures to just below or near record
values. Otherwise, sensible weather will be nill with a rather nice
start to the weekend on tap for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High pressure will continue to dominate the weekend
forecast, and the rest of the extended forecast really. The ridge of
high pressure will start to shift east on Sunday as a shortwave
trough moves through the Great Lakes. We will end the weekend with
only a slight increase in cloud cover and temps in the low 80s.

As the ridge continues to shift eastward into the first half of the
work week and center near GA/FL, sfc southerly flow persists. This
will allow for temps to remain above normal and even jeopardize
daytime record highs as we head into November! Before we even think
about November, those out and about on Monday for Halloween will
have a scary good forecast in store. Dry conditions with daytime
highs in the low/mid 80s, evening temps in the 70s and overnight
lows cooling into the upper 50s. Record high temps on November 1st:
KHSV: 84 (2000) KMSL: 86 (1915) and on Nov 2nd: KHSV: 84 (1961)
KMSL: 82 (1974-along with additional years). With forecasted daytime
highs hovering around those values, will have to stay tuned to see if
any records are broken! However, with the ridge lingering across the
region, expect another increase in cloud cover due to a disturbance
mid-week, but dry conditions will persist through the forecast
period, not helping the expanding drought conditions across the TN


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

In the wake of a weak cold front passing across the region, VFR
conditions should continue for the next 6 hours, but fog formation is
anticipated around sunrise (12Z). This may cause a reduction to MVFR
visibility until 15Z. Then, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
for the rest of the forecast period.





For more information please visit our website
at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.