Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
150 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

A low pressure system will move into the region bringing continued
chances for scattered showers into tonight and Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool off on the backside of this system on
Tuesday which may allow some snow to mix in with the rain at
times. Cooler and drier conditions will follow on Wednesday, with
a moderating trend Thursday into Friday.


.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Leading LLJ/moisture plume with narrow pwat ridge near 1" supporting
rain showers this afternoon mainly into portions of nw OH. This
activity will continue to gradually shift off to the east into the
early evening. Mainly dry/mild otherwise into the early evening
elsewhere as distinct dry intrusion overspreads in advance of a
maturing nrn MO/srn IA cyclone. This deep occlusion then
translates east through the Lower/Central Great Lakes by later
tonight and Tuesday morning bringing additional shower chances.
Could see a few heavier showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
mid evening into the early overnight as steep mid-level lapse
rates/cold mid level temps pivot in over western fringe of moist
warm sector. Boundary layer may eventually cool enough for a few
snow showers to mix in Tuesday morning into early Tuesday
afternoon as cold air advects back in behind the main system sfc
trough. Marginal sfc wet bulb temps and diminishing moisture depth
should limit accums/impacts, with best chances for light snow
accums across nw IN/sw Lower MI. Large scale subsidence then
overspreads in the afternoon resulting in decreasing shower


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

A quiet long term period is anticipated given a progressive and
somewhat less amplified regime. Broad upper level trough does hang
in on Wednesday with clouds and perhaps a few flurries. Another
warmup then Thursday through Saturday before a cold front brings
temps back closer to normal Sunday into early next week. This
frontal passage may generate a period of light rain (possibly
ending as some snow) at some point this weekend, though models
differ wrt timing and moisture return at this fcst range.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

The main area of showers was about to clear Ft Wayne ahead of a
dry slot that was moving into the area. Scattered showers are
possible the rest of the afternoon, and then become more numerous
tonight as the front moves across the area. The rain will likely
mix with snow at SBN by late tonight as colder air reaches the
area. Conditions should be MVFR at both sites through much of the
TAF period.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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