Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 232338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
738 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A soaking rain will continue into this evening. Rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches can be expected over far southwest Lower Michigan
into northwest Indiana, with much lower amounts elsewhere.

Tuesday into Wednesday will feature much cooler conditions and
additional chances for rain showers under deep low pressure over
the Great Lakes region. Highs both days may struggle to get out of
the 40s. A brief shot of warm and dry conditions into Thursday
will be followed by another surge of cool air Friday into the


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The main deformation zone has set up farther west then earlier
anticipated. The far northwest part of the forecast area from
Laporte to western Berrien county had received 2.0 to 3.5 inches of
rain during the past several hours. After coordination, have issued
a flood advisory for this area. The low pressure area will rapidly
deepen and move north tonight, with the heaviest rain shifting north
of the area. The low should drop below 980 mb by daybreak. More
showers should spread back into the area Tuesday as impulses rotate
around the main low and as delta T values increase and favor lake
enhanced showers.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Much colder air will spread across the Upper Great Lakes region into
Wednesday as showers end by late in the day. High temperatures will
only be in the 40s Wednesday. After a short dry period from
Wednesday night through Thursday night, another round of showers is
expected followed by more colder air for this weekend. Kept chilly
lows close to freezing from Friday night through Monday morning. A
light rain/snow mix is possible, but no snow accumulations are


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Surface low pressure moves to the north of the region tonight
and deepens there Tuesday. This will allow mainly west winds and
continued times of rain as well as decreasing flight conditions as
we head towards Tuesday morning.

A band of heavier rain was associated with a generally north to
south temperature gradient over Western Michigan and into Central
Indiana during the evening hours of Monday. Just west of that
gradient, VFR conditions resided within drier air. This is
expected to move east into the forecast and will allow for some
moderation of conditions in the early overnight hours. Conditions
will then worsen to IFR first at SBN around or just after 6z as
moisture comes back in. Rain is expected to continue along with at
least fuel alternate conditions, if not IFR conditions, into
Tuesday as the upper low slowly meanders away from the region.


LM...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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