Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 231947
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
247 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...RELATIVELY WEAK...ODD LOOKING MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTH...MAINLY IN CANADA. WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY TROF OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED IN THE MIDDLE AND CONTROLLING
OUR WEATHER. BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP THE JET
FIRMLY POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROFS SLOWLY FILL. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN POSTIONED UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...LARGE SPRAWLING ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE NE STATES WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PROVIDING
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A SLOW MODERATION IN DEWPOINTS. OTHER
THAN SOME PASSING THIN CIRRUS TOPPING THE RIDGE...DO NOT SEE ANY
CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH...THUS MAINLY JUST A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY WEAK...ENDING COOL
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THE SUN TO START WORKING ON THE DRY AIR AND
MAXES TO START INCHING UP THROUGH THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MINS LOOKS TO STAY IN THE MID 50S FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT THEN
WILL BEGIN INCHING UP AS WELL WITH THE SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
FROM THE EAST./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
MODEL PROGGED PWATS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE CWA FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CHANGES WILL BE OCCURRING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SETTING
UP OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE NUDGED BACK EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND AS A
SHARPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO EVEN
NORTHEAST...BUT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING ABOUT FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE EURO SHOWING A MORE WELL-DEFINED
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AS IT BRINGS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WITH A LESS
ORGANIZED SURFACE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH
THE SURFACE FEATURES SINCE YESTERDAY. WITH EITHER SCENARIO...IT
SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A BIT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PIN DOWN
A SPECIFIC TIME FRAME FOR HIGHER POPS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE MAKING FOR CONTINUED LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GFS SHOWS TWO PRONOUNCED CUTOFF LOWS OVER
THE CONUS WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE EURO DEPICTS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH...WHICH THE NEARBY
CUTOFF LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS BUILDING BY TUESDAY. FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS DRIER
THAN THE GFS/MEX. /DL/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-8KTS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  84  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      53  83  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     54  85  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   58  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       57  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    56  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     55  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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