Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 011455
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...A QUIETER MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THE LACK OF STORMS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE IN THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE AREA WHERE ORGANIZED STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH OR
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW INITIATION ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...AND THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER LOUISIANA AND PUSH
NORTH. CURRENT POPS REFLECT THESE AS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
STORMS.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS TO DELAY STORM INITIATION UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MORNING STRATUS IS BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
GTR/GLH WITH THE REMAINING SITES VFR. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR
AFTER 16Z WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS ACTIVITY. GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTN AND EARLY EVNG
TSTMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NE AFFECTING GTR...WITH MOSTLY ISOLD
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8-10KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON./15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA TODAY AND THURSDAY AS OUR REGION REMAINS
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER AMPLIFIED TODAY BUT GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER OUR REGION. OUR HEIGHTS WILL
BE 30-40M GREATER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE BUT WL
STILL HAVE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LOWER 70 DEW POINTS
AND PWATS BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 INCHES. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY BUT THE CAVEAT
WILL BE ANY DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THAT MAY SPREAD INTO OUR CWA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY REGIONAL RADARS WERE SHOWING CONVECTION
FIRING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME MODELS BRING THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL PARAMETERS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BELOW 6C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS ONLY AROUND 25 BUT ANY MCS
DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD BRING AT LEAST A POTENTIAL WIND
THREAT. WL INCLUDE A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HWO
TODAY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRENADA TO MACON LINE.
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY PROLONG CONVECTION THIS EVENING BUT A
MORE DISTINCT DIURNAL TREND IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH CONVECTION
DIMINISHING EARLY DURING THE EVENING. THURSDAY A SURFACE RIDGE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE NOSING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BUT MODELS
SUGGEST SOME NEGATIVE THETAE ADVECTION/DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OUR
CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH
AND A HALF. WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEW
POINTS AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR CWA TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. CONVECTION WL END SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THURSDAY EVENING BUT
WL MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT NORTH OF I-20 AS A SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP SET OFF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY. /22/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE A
MODIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BROAD FLAT
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CWA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUED
TO BE MODIFIED SOME AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. ON FRIDAY SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE NORTH HALF AS WE GET A LITTLE BETTER FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS COMING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS POSSIBILITY MAY EXPAND
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SHORTWAVES IN THE MODELS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE
EASTERN US. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES
OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPS. LOOKING
BEYOND THE ENSEMBLES AND MODELS SHOWS THE TROUGH AND RIDGE UPPER
PATTERN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  73  92  73 /  16  13  29  17
MERIDIAN      89  71  91  71 /  36  27  44  26
VICKSBURG     91  73  93  72 /  15  12  15  15
HATTIESBURG   92  74  93  74 /  38  13  34  14
NATCHEZ       92  74  93  74 /  34  13  10   9
GREENVILLE    91  74  93  72 /  18  13  25  32
GREENWOOD     90  73  91  72 /  32  24  34  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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