Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 270351
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
951 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING. AS EXPECTED...LOW STRATUS IS SLOW TO ERODE
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY INITIALLY. BUT INCREASING
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FORECAST LOWS TO STILL BE MET.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE KEPT AN ABUNDANCE OF MVFR CATEGORY CIGS IN FORECAST
DUE TO CONSIDERABLE STRATUS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE CLOUD DECK WILL
BREAK UP AND ERODE MORE THAN FORECAST. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...BUT A WETTER PATTERN WILL ALSO EXIST.

FOR THE TONIGHT INTO FRI...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA AND IS NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY BY A SOLID LOW STRATUS
DECK. LOOK FOR THIS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME OF THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. I DON`T  EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO
CLEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE POCKETS OF PESKY CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A CHALLENGING SKY FORECAST. WITH STRONG CAA MOVING IN WITH
INCREASING SFC PRESSURES...LOOK FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT TO NOT DROP OFF
A GREAT DEAL AND NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS. NE SFC
WINDS WILL EXIST ON FRI WITH SOME WEAK CAA STILL ONGOING. TYPICALLY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...I WOULD OFTEN LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER GUID. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUNSHINE
(WITH SOME MIX OF CLOUDS) AND THE FACT WE ARE IN LATE FEB...THERE
WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF OUR
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. STILL...TEMPS FRI WILL BE 15-23 DEGREES
BELOW AVG.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE LARGE COLD SFC HIGH (CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME E/SE WINDS FOR
OUR AREA SAT WITH EVEN MORE RETURN FLOW BY SUN. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FROM 50-60 DEGREES SAT. A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL GET ESTABLISHED FOR SUN WITH PART OF THE AREA LIKELY
STAYING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING
BETTER WARMTH AND MOISTURE. PRECIP ALSO LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN-WED WILL BE ONE OF A WARMER
REGIME WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA (MAINLY S HALF) TO PEAK
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70 DEGREE RANGE. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL AID
IN THIS WARMUP. THE TRADE OFF WILL BE MOISTURE AND A NEARBY SFC
BOUNDARY. THESE TWO ELEMENTS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT A WET PERIOD.
WHILE NONE OF THESE TIMES LOOK TO BE A WASH OUT...MUCH BETTER THAN
AVG PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON WHERE
ANY SFC BOUNDARY HANGS UP...RAIN AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS AS WE MOVE
FORWARD. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$






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