Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 292122
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. PLENTIFUL SUN HAS ALSO HELPED WARM THINGS UP TODAY. THE
1030MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
REGION IS SITUATED UNDER SOME HIGHER HEIGHTS TODAY AS WELL BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AS A SFC LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CANADA...IT WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARDS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST GIVEN SUFFICIENT FORCING. LOW
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS AS
WELL AS VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 28-29C. THAT BEING SAID...THERE COULD
BE SOME HAIL WITH THESE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 11PM-
MIDNIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL BUT WE
COULD SEE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ADDED A LIMITED RISK SECTION FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 FOR TONIGHT
BUT THE PRIMARY AREA WOULD BE CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 82.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS LINGERING WITH IT BUT THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD
HAVE DIMINISHED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GET. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LIKELY WOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY GIVEN
DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A SFC HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA
DRY MONDAY NIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...YET AGAIN BRINGING WARMER...MOISTER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY...DAYTIME HEATING INTERACT WITH A LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AS WILL VERTICAL TOTALS TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED THE LIMITED
RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND ON TUESDAY BUT SHIFTED THE THREAT AREA FURTHER
EAST TO ENCOMPASS ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
HEATING WILL COMBINE TO BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHER
HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THESE CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS. HOWEVER...A STALLED FRONT
WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
TRACKS TO THE EAST...IT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THIS FRONT DOWN INTO
OUR REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF EASTER WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EARLY
INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SHOW THAT EASTER ITSELF SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS A SFC HIGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FOR THE SOUTHWEST
LOCALES LATER IN THE DAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO RETURN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. BEST CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT IFR WILL BE AROUND HBG/PIB WHERE SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. NORTH OF I-20 CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR AT WORST
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE HAIL. TOMORROW CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO ALL VFR BY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LIKELY SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS CURRENTLY TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  75  57  78 /  24  36   8  17
MERIDIAN      56  75  54  78 /  19  41   8  27
VICKSBURG     59  74  57  79 /  28  30   8  15
HATTIESBURG   59  79  59  81 /  10  24   9  13
NATCHEZ       60  76  59  79 /   7  18   5  14
GREENVILLE    57  70  55  75 /  72  26   9  46
GREENWOOD     57  72  54  75 /  78  25   6  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/BB


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