Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 200206
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
906 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast remains on track as much of the area is under mostly
clear skies, although some upper level cloudiness is scattered
across a few locations within the region. Overnight lows will be a
few degrees warmer tonight and some isolated areas of patchy fog
cannot be ruled out briefly before sunrise given the expected
light to calm winds.


Prior discussion below:


Through Friday:
A ridge axis will continue to move east through the ArkLaMiss the
rest of today and will be situated to our east on Friday. Mostly
sunny skies with warm temps in the low 80s will persist the rest of
this afternoon. Large dewpoint depressions, mostly clear skies, and
calm winds will be favorable for radiational cooling again tonight
with overnight low temps dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s.
The coolest temps will be realized across the Golden Triangle and
northeastern portion of the CWA with high clouds and higher
dewpoints helping to keep warmer temps in the low to mid 50s across
the southwest Delta. Expect more cloud cover on Friday as high level
clouds move into the ArkLaMiss in the southwesterly flow aloft.
Anomalous H850 temps in the 90th percentile will continue and help
daytime max temps once again reach the low 80s Friday afternoon. /TW/

Saturday through next week:
The main focus in the long term will be the effect that the
impending longwave trough has on our region in the coming days.
The first aspect of this trough to address is the frontal passage
associated with it. The Euro has a cutoff low within the trough
forming in the mid-Mississippi Valley region while the GFS has the
low forming further south right over our area. This then is the
difference of the front moving through the CWA on Sunday vs.
Monday as the cutoff low pushes east of the region. In following
the idea of the previous package, this forecast leans toward the
Euro. However, until the models line up better, confidence with
this system will not be 100%. Another aspect of this fropa is the
severe potential. At this point, the parameters don`t seem to be
lining up over our area. Depending on when the precip moves
through will make the difference of just a rain system for our
area or maybe a system with a few strong/perhaps marginally severe
thunderstorms. The next aspect to address is rainfall. Again, the
difference in models right now does not lead to a bunch of
confidence in how much rain will come with this system. The GFS
shows a couple rounds of rain while the Euro has the system coming
through in one fell swoop. Right now, the most probably amounts
are 1"-2" areawide and with the dry soils lately this is not
expected to cause any flash flooding.

Now, the last aspect of this system is the cooler temperatures
behind the frontal passage. The overnight lows next week will
likely be the coolest we`ve seen this season and lows in the 30s
for some areas are quite possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Highs in the 60s are also quite likely areawide on Wednesday. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours.
There may be some very brief shallow patchy fog prior to daybreak
in some locations but this should not linger much beyond sunrise.
Otherwise, winds will be out of the southeast and light tonight,
increasing to around 5-10kts tomorrow. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       52  83  62  82 /   0   0   1  40
Meridian      50  81  58  83 /   0   0   1   7
Vicksburg     53  83  62  84 /   0   0   3  47
Hattiesburg   53  81  61  82 /   0   0   2  37
Natchez       55  82  65  83 /   0   0   5  48
Greenville    51  81  60  82 /   0   0   5  29
Greenwood     50  82  60  83 /   0   0   2  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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