Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 221726
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1126 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018


.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Band of broken showers and some embedded thunderstorms are
affecting the Delta region this morning, which is providing IFR to
LIFR ceiling restrictions to KGLH and KGWO. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are occurring and expected to occur for much of the
afternoon, outside of any showers or storms that develop. Ceilings
should improve in the Delta but likely remain sub-VFR through the
TAF period. Ceilings will eventually lower elsewhere tonight,
resulting in MVFR to LIFR conditions. Some fog may be possible in
the southeast, which will also result in lowered categories before
daybreak. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broken swath of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
continue to plague portions of the ArkLaMiss Delta this morning.
We continue to get reports of flooding across much of the Delta
from overnight and early morning rainfall. A large portion of this
region has received 3-5 inches of rain with a strip of 6-8 inches
from northern Leflore County back to the southwest toward
southeast Ashley County. Flash flood warnings remain where the
heavier rain continues and areal flood warnings are in place where
the heaviest rain has stopped or some light rain falls but
flooding issues remain. This rain is moving north and diminishing
some in coverage. Think at this point the Flash Flood Watch will
be good to expire at noon, but some rain may still remain. Hi-res
guidance does indicate a lull in the rain activity for much of the
day but some scattered activity may occur.

A decent gradient of temperatures are occurring this morning
between the Delta and the remainder of the area. The stalled front
is draped from around Grenada to around Rayville. Behind the
front, temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s. East of the
front, readings are in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Highs today
should flirt with, if not achieve records in the warm sector.
Adjusted highs down a little in the Delta, where some warming
should occur as this front wavers and moves further northwest but
might still fall short of what was forecast. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  65  81  64 /  10   8  55  47
Meridian      85  62  81  64 /   3   5  29  34
Vicksburg     82  66  81  64 /  31  20  57  48
Hattiesburg   85  63  81  65 /   7  11  44  31
Natchez       84  66  80  66 /  12  18  57  39
Greenville    62  61  76  63 /  85  38  52  53
Greenwood     77  65  79  64 /  96  25  41  53

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>025.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for ARZ074-075.


&&


$$

28


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