Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 210800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING NOCTURNAL SHRA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS S LA TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

SEEM TO BE STUCK IN A PATTERN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA...DESPITE BEING
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THUS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR POPS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON HEATING MAXIMUM...WHICH SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THIS REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

STILL EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THUS...DIDN`T MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IF ANY TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THUS...MINIMAL PRECI CHANCES FRI-SUN...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH
MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF I-10.

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE
AGAIN MON-WED...THUS DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
GOING 20% MON & 30% TUE-WED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES
FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INHIBITS MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  78  94  76  94 /  30  10  20  10  10
KBPT  93  78  94  77  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
KAEX  96  75  97  74  97 /  30  10  20  10  10
KLFT  94  76  95  76  95 /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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