Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 281134
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy dense fog has developed across the area again this morning
which has resulted in highly variable visibilities at ARA.
Inserted tempo 1/2SM through 13Z to account for the continued
fluctuation over the next hour. All other sites remain restriction
free.

A developing upper level trough across the eastern US is producing
an area of thunderstorms across central and southern Arkansas this
morning. Generally high level blowoff clouds from this activity
will gradually work its way southward into AEX during the morning.
These clouds could intermittently traverse the other TAF sites,
but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the day.
Convection will once again be limited by upper level ridging in
place across the region, but a few isolated thunderstorms can`t
be ruled out.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
nrn Gulf, maintaining a light mostly srly low-level flow across
the region. Meanwhile a cool front is noted from a low over the
Ohio Valley through the Ozarks and srn Plains to the TX
Panhandle. Water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave dropping
through the Great Lakes which is helping dig a trof over the ern
CONUS, which is also helping shove our nearby ridge back toward
Desert SW. Sfc obs show mainly clear skies in place over the
forecast area with satellite imagery depicting mainly just thin
cirrus. Regional 88Ds are again PPINE this morning.

No significant changes to previous forecast thinking. Today looks
like one last dry day across the forecast area as the ridge
attempts to hold on, especially across the wrn portions. Expect
some convection to develop to our northeast as capping begins to
weaken thanks to the deepening ern CONUS trof, but for now have
kept minimal POPs out of the area. Main story again will be the
heat as highs reach the mid 90s over most of the forecast area.
Combined with dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s, expect heat index
values to approach but stay just below the 108F advisory criteria.

Rain chances increase beginning tonight across the nern 1/2, then
spread across the remainder of the area on Saturday as the cool
front begins to push across. Best POPs continue across the ern 1/2
of the area into Saturday night where moisture/lift are progged to
be best. The bulk of the precip should move out of the area by the
start of Sunday, but a few lingering showers look possible near
the coast as well as the srn portions of sern TX.

After a dry Monday, which also looks a little cooler with max
temps staying in the upper 80s for a good bit of the forecast
area, rain chances return Tuesday and linger into Wednesday as
another disturbance dropping through the trof moves into the area.

AVIATION...
No flags are anticipated on the coastal waters through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  77  90  70 /  10  20  60  30
LCH  94  79  91  76 /  10  10  40  50
LFT  94  79  90  74 /  10  20  60  50
BPT  94  77  93  75 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...66


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