Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 260527
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THICKENING CIRRUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INCOMING
ON A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCU ACROSS THE TERMINALS OF
BPT AND LCH AT AROUND 4K FT. LATTER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ON A DEEPENING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME LOWERING INTO MVFR OF
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED POST-SUNRISE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST IS GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH GENERALLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING GRIDS BETTER IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF DIGGING WRN CONUS
TROF...THOUGH MSTR OVERALL REMAINS LIMITED PER KLCH 00Z RAOB
WHICH SHOWED EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ABOVE 900MB. THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A SRLY LLJ INTENSIFIES AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROF. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ALONG WITH
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE NOISY SW FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
PATCHES OF RAIN. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITHIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME
STRATOCU AT 4-5 THOUSAND FEET OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION. LATTER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND EXPAND ACROSS
THE AREA AS A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. NONE-THE-
LESS...CLOUD HEIGHTS OF STRATOCU SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN VFR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING LOWERING CEILINGS INTO MVFR POST-
SUNRISE WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
AEX...BPT AND LCH.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST BROUGHT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE AS CLOUDS
DRIFTED OVER. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE DEW POINTS CONTINUE A SLOW RISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND... TEMPS ALONG THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S. THIS WILL BE ABOUT A
TEN DEGREE JUMP FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED WELL INLAND FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE RAINS AND CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY GETS THE FRONT
MOVING AGAIN. LOOKING TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINS DOWN ALONG THE
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH UPWARDS TO THREE TO FOUR INCHES
POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WITH SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MID 60S DOWN ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST.

ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  49  67  63  73  56 /  10  30  60  80  60
KBPT  54  69  63  73  53 /  10  30  60  80  60
KAEX  41  63  57  73  53 /  10  30  60  80  60
KLFT  46  67  59  74  60 /  10  40  60  80  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






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