Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 191610

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1010 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Surface frontal boundary becoming more diffuse as it works east
across the forecast area...with strongest convection noted just
ahead of it across the coastal waters between Cameron and
Intracoastal City. Ahead of this boundary in South Central
Louisiana is where the heaviest rainfall and marginal risk of
strong to severe storms will be possible into early afternoon.
Some isolated wind gusts/brief spin ups/street flooding will be
the main concerns. Otherwise...upper level trough from the
Southern Plains into Central Texas will open and move off to the
east...with widespread showers and a few thunderstorms due to the
lift and upglide will continue until gradually tapering off from
west to east after the early afternoon hours. Made some slight
modifications to grids based on latest observations and radar



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

For 12z TAF issuance.

Not much in the way of change to previous TAF thinking as combo of
plentiful moisture/weak sfc front/strong disturbance aloft combine
to produce periods of widespread rainfall through the day.
Ceilings should remain rather low through the best
maybe a period of MVFR conditions this afternoon. Thunder looks
possible at just about any time during the duration of the
rainfall, but with low confidence on pinpointing any particular
time of occurrence, have left it out of the TAFs for now.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...A weak frontal boundary is pushing east across the
Sabine River Valley this morning. A fairly vigorous upper
disturbance is moving across Texas and the Central Plains. Along
the front and ahead of the short wave rain and thunderstorms
stretches from along the coast of Texas across much of Louisiana
and into Mississippi and Southern Arkansas.

The upper low and short wave will continue northeast today
while the front slowly pushes east. Along and ahead of the front
the air mass will remain unstable enough to provide a marginal
risk of a strong storm or two with gusty winds being the main
threat although a weak tornado can not be ruled out. Heavy rain
will also be a threat today as high pwat remains over the region.
1 to 3 inches is possible now through the afternoon from around
Beaumont to Alexandria to Lower Acadiana. Rain chances will
decrease through the afternoon and evening as the front exits the

The area will be between systems Friday. This will produce a brief
dry stretch.

Friday Night and Saturday rain chances will increase once again as
another frontal system and a series of disturbances move through
the area. The first short wave will increase rain chances during
Friday Night/Early Saturday. A much stronger upper low will
develop over Texas and quickly move east across the Deep South.
The associated surface low and front will move through Saturday
Night. Ahead of this low, but mainly over LA there will be a
slight risk of severe weather. Windy conditions will occur behind
the front along with a bit of light wrap around rain Sunday.
Temperatures behind the front will fall back to more seasonable
levels Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will rebound some again by
Tuesday before the next front moves through during the middle of
the week.

MARINE...Dense marine fog will gradually thin through the morning
as a slightly cooler and drier air mass works into the region. A
light to moderate west to sw flow will occur behind the front
today. A light to moderate and generally south to sw flow is
expected Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move through the
coastal waters Saturday Night with very strong west to NW winds
expected Sunday and Monday. Gale force winds with gusts in excess
of 45 kts are expected Sunday into Monday Morning. Seas of 10 to
15 feet will occur in the outer waters. Winds and seas will
subside Monday Night/Tuesday Morning.


AEX  68  56  75  59 /  90  10  10  60
LCH  67  59  75  62 /  90  10  10  60
LFT  70  61  78  65 /  90  20  10  70
BPT  68  59  76  63 /  80  10  10  60




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