Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 242102
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
302 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.Short Term...Tonight through Sunday...

This afternoon`s surface analysis indicates an area of high
pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf Coast resulting in
mostly clear skies and light winds across the region. The
combination of clear skies and calm winds will once again result
in a favorable setup for radiational cooling tonight. This will
allow temperatures to once again range from the upper 30s in
central Louisiana to near 50 along the immediate coast tomorrow
morning.

The area of high pressure currently centered over the region will
shift eastward on Saturday while an area of low pressure develops
over north-central Texas. The resulting increase in southerly flow
and sunny skies should allow for temperatures to be well above
average once again with highs in the mid 70s across SW Louisiana
and near 80 across SE Texas.

A cold front is forecast to move through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday morning and a reinforcing area of high pressure
will build into the area through Sunday. Given the dry airmass
already over the area (as indicated by PWATS less than 0.5"
sampled by regional upper air flights this morning) and the very
short period of return flow during the day Saturday, precipitation
is not expected with the passage of the cold front. As the
reinforcing high pressure builds into the region, temperatures are
expected to return to near normal on Sunday.

.Long Term...Monday through Friday...

High pressure will remain in place over the area for the beginning
part of next week. A Pacific trough is forecast to dig in from the
northwest before getting sheared out over the central CONUS and
passing over the central Mississippi River Valley during the
middle of next week. The operational 12Z GFS is the most
amplified and least progressive solution for the shortwave trough
with it exiting the region late Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile,
the GFS ensemble, European ensemble, ECMWF, and Canadian all have
the trough exiting the area by Friday and slight 500 hPa rises
over the region late next week. With the GFS solution being an
apparent outlier, no need was seen at this time to stray too far
from the regional Superblend for the extended period.

Height rises in advance of the digging Pacific trough will result
in temperatures being 5 to 10 degrees above average during the
early to middle part of next week. Return flow is expected to
redevelop late Monday and continue through Thursday afternoon
before the next front approaches late Thursday into Friday. The
return flow will result in increasing deep layer moisture and a
slight chance for precipitation beginning Wednesday as the upper
level trough approaches the region and continuing through
Thursday. Another area of high pressure will then build into the
region resulting in dry conditions and near normal temperatures.


&&

.MARINE...

Clear skies and a generally light onshore flow will prevail
through Saturday before a dry cold front pushes through the
coastal waters late Saturday night into Sunday morning. North
winds will prevail in the wake of the front on Sunday, with an
onshore flow redeveloping on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  39  74  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  75  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  45  74  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  50  77  51  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26


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