Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 250542
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1242 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main aviation issue tonight continues to be the line of strong
convection pushing slowly ewd across the wrn portion of the
forecast area. Earlier runs of the HRRR have been showing a
weakening trend to the line after midnight and recent reflectivity
scans show this indeed may be the case...regardless expecting
thunderstorms to gradually move into all the terminals over the
course of the overnight hours with low ceilings and variable but
gusty winds to accompany it. Forecast time-height sections
indicate a brief period of continued lower ceilings behind the
line with mainly IFR conditions carried. Winds will again pick up
after sunrise, although not to the levels noted Friday. Another
round of lighter convection is noted in high-res runs impacting
the forecast area through the late morning/early afternoon
hours...this line doesn`t appear to have the same
moisture/dynamics as tonight`s action so have only inserted tempo
showers with it at this time. Conditions are progged to improve
greatly once this secondary line passes.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

UPDATE...
As expected, a new tornado watch was issued for much of the
forecast area...thus the grids/zones were just updated for Tornado
Watch #83, valid til 09z/0400L.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have updated the overnight POP grids to better reflect the
expected movement of the ongoing convection now moving into the
nwrn CWA...while also following closely with latest short-range
high-res guidance. We will be doing a special 04z upper air flight
to help SPC better gauge the current airmass nearby, which will
ultimately help decide later potential watch issuances...thus
will hold off on a zone update to better reflect potential severe
wording.

Elsewhere just minor tweaks to inherited grids.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 716 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Zones/grids have been updated for the issuance of Tornado Watch
#80...valid til midnight CDT for all of interior sern TX.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

AVIATION...
SCT/BKN cloud layer from 2000-4000 feet will continue to produce
intermittent MVFR/VFR condtions over the next several hours before
giving way to predominately MVFR conditions. Winds will also
remain elevated with sustained speeds of 20-25 knots and gusts to
30 knots over the next several hours. A band of prefrontal showers
has developed this evening and could lead to some -RA at LCH and
BPT between 00Z and 02Z but should not yield any restrictions. The
main squall line accompanied by gusty variable winds, TSRA, and
IFR visibility/ceiling restrictions is still forecast to move
through the region during the overnight hours. The previous TAF
package still looks to be on track but will be ammended if
required.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Breezy day across the area this afternoon in advance of a storm
system currently approaching western Oklahoma. A line of showers
and thunderstorms are currently developing in the area of enhanced
lift from the Ark-La-Tex down into system Texas. Hi-Res guidance
continues to march this line to the east overnight, but overall
trend has shown weakening potential along the southern end for a
time. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms continues to
be across the northwestern counties and parishes where SPC has
enhanced outlook. That said most of the area has some risk of
severe storms.

The line of thunderstorms will continue through the area overnight
and will likely still be ongoing across the eastern portions of
the forecast area tomorrow morning before drier air filters into
the region with a dry weather forecast into the weekend.

Also had to extend the wind advisory through this evening for the
immediate coastal county and parishes for continued breezy
conditions.

The next storms system will approach on Monday, but it does not
look as strong as the one currently moving through the area.

A stronger system will move through Thursday with the chance of
showers and thunderstorms and possibly some severe storms.

Temperatures will continue to be above climo.

MARINE...
With strong southerly winds continuing, had to extend the small
craft advisory through at least the overnight hours. Winds and
seas will continue to remain elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  84  66  83 /  10   0  20  50
LCH  61  82  68  82 /  10  10  20  40
LFT  64  84  70  83 /  10  10  20  40
BPT  62  82  70  82 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CDT early this morning
     for GMZ430-432.

&&

$$



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