Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 210800
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
300 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak high pressure over the Southeast U.S. with light
south to southeast flow over the region. Further inland, patchy
fog noted across our region once again. Might see intermittent
patchy dense fog towards daybreak, but not expecting widespread
dense fog at this time.

With above normal temperatures and dewpoints, summertime
conditions expected to prevail for the next week. Isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon
through Friday with little appreciable forcing expect afternoon
heating. Increased moisture from the Eastern Gulf coupled with an
deepening upper level low over the Southeast U.S. to bring
increased chances of showers and thunderstorms for the weekend
into next Monday. Temperatures expected to stay slightly above
normal through the period.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorm can be expected each afternoon
through Friday, becoming more scattered over the weekend into
early next week. Weak high pressure will persist over the
Northeast Gulf, yielding light southerly winds and low seas.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1154 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
21/06Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Made some minor adjustments from previous TAF pkg. Model guidance
continues to indicate the best potential for fog will be acrs
portions of central/southern LA so maintained prevailing
MVFR/TEMPO IFR at LFT/ARA/AEX/LCH while persistence (as well as
guidance) suggests prevailing VFR/TEMPO MVFR vsbys at BPT.
Guidance also shows sctd convection developing mainly acrs SE TX
Thursday morning with showers developing later and being more
isoltd in coverage acrs SW/Cntl LA. Because of this, opted to
remove VC mention at these sites at this time. Otherwise, expect
VFR to prevail through much of the period with light southerly
winds.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 936 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

UPDATE...
Earlier daytime heating type convection has diminished and will
remove pops and mention of showers for the remainder of the night,
except for lower Southeast Texas and the adjacent coastal waters,
as a few nocturnal streamer showers may develop and move onshore
in that area after midnight and before daybreak. Elsewhere, seeing
enough of a signature on short term guidance to go ahead and add
patchy fog to the grids after midnight. Otherwise, remainder of
the forecast is on track.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
21/00Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Aftn convection will continue to diminish through 02Z with VFR
conditions expected to prevail through midnight. Winds are
expected to become light/vrbl or nearly calm, leading to the
potential for patchy fog late tonight. Fcst confidence is again
somewhat low in how widespread/dense fog will be but think at
least prevailing MVFR vsbys will be likely after 08Z with ocnl IFR
around daybreak, especially near KAEX. Conditions will improve by
14-15Z with widely sctd -SHRA developing near the southern
terminals by midday.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon as
expected in response to diurnal heating aided by a weak trough
moving through the area. Expect the activity to wane through the
evening hours before coming to an end around or shortly after
sunset this evening.

Synoptically, the US will be divided in half over the next several
days with a large upper trough across the western US bringing more
autumn like conditions while the eastern US will find itself
beneath upper ridging which will keep Tropical Storm Jose and
eventually Hurricane Maria off the eastern seaboard.

Our area will be caught somewhere in between with the greater
influence coming from the ridging thorough early next week.
Still, with plenty of atmospheric moisture available, diurnal
heating will be enough to spawn isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. Overall coverage will likely be
lower tomorrow and Friday as there will be less upper level
support over the region. This pattern will persist through the
middle of next week before the aforementioned upper trough begins
to dig further south and east potentially swinging a cold front
through the area sometime late next week or next weekend.

MARINE...
Abundant atmospheric moisture and daytime heating will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
Weak high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf, yielding
generally light southerly winds and low seas.

66

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  10
LCH  90  73  91  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  92  72  92  72 /  20  20  20  10
BPT  89  73  90  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04


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