Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 021728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

DISCUSSION...
02/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. LINE OF
WEAK SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED THIS MORNING OVER LOWER ACADIANA.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER PWATS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY SO VERY
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE NEAR LFT AND ARA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR
CONDITIONS AS STABLE AIRMASS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND HAZE. WILL FORECAST VFR FOR MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

UPDATE...A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN IN ACADIANA THIS
MORNING LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. BY THIS AFTERNOON A
DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WORKED INTO THE
REGION CUTTING OFF MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THERE
MAY STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN LOWER
ACADIANA FOR ONE OR TWO SHOWERS OR STORMS. ADDED 20 PERCENT FOR
THE DAY IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OFF AN MCS IN ARKANSAS. ALL OTHER
WX ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE AN ISSUE AS FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS.

THE 02/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE TOTAL BLENDED PWAT AND INTEGRATED PWAT
VALUES FROM GPS-MET DATA SHOWS THE PWAT VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 1.75
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WHERE THE LIGHT CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING. THE 02/00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATED SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES AT 50H AND 70H.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES EXPANDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER AND SINKING AIR INTO THE REGION. PROGS SHOW 70H RH DOWN TO
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE BY AFTERNOON...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR BELOW
1.5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE BELOW RELATIVE NORM. THE RESULT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...IF ANY CONVECTION TODAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...KEEPING LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE
MAKING FOR TYPICAL SUMMER MUGGIES WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 102F DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN AROUND THE CENTER OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 50H RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS...MAKING IT TO EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS COULD
KICK OFF A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MEANWHILE...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE SHORT WAVE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...ESPECIALLY ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY...OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...AND SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER WITH AS LOCAL FIREWORK DISPLAYS
GET GOING IN THE EARLY EVENING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
EXPANDS TO THE EAST...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF EXPANDS TO THE NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MAY A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR TWO NEAR THE SEA BREEZE OR ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. OTHERWISE...THE
SUMMER HEAT AND MUGGIES WILL AGAIN TAKE OVER...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES LIKELY IN THE 100F TO 105F RANGE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED AROUND FLORIDA VARYING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL RIDGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW
SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  73  92  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  91  76  92  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  91  75  93  77 /  20   0  10  10
BPT  92  76  93  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



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