Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 241129
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface high pressure will dominate the region today resulting in
light to moderate northerly winds early gradually veering to the
south during the afternoon as the high slides east.

Some patchy ground fog at AEX this morning has resulted in
bouncing visibilities. This fog should dissipate quickly after
sunrise this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current sfc analysis shows the cold front which helped usher in
our recent cool temperatures now well to the east, while high
pressure is noted centered over the Ozarks and ridging sswwd to
the TX coast. Water vapor imagery shows ridging behind the
departing storm system aloft in place from nern Mexico through the
srn Plains to the Midwest...while energy moving ashore along the
West Coast is beginning to dig a trof west of the Rockies.
Satellite imagery shows generally clear skies over the forecast
area, although a few ob sites around the region have managed to
squeeze out enough low-level moisture to get fog over the past
hour or so.

Sfc high/ridge aloft will continue to progress ewd today and combo
of low moisture/good insolation will lead to much warmer temps
than yesterday with highs this afternoon expected to run in the
lower 80s for much of the area. The warming trend will continue
into tonight as the high pushes east of the region, allowing an
onshore low-level flow to develop, and mins tonight are forecast
to run about 10 degrees warmer than what we`re seeing at this
time.

Wrn CONUS trof is progged to deepen into Tuesday which will help
flatten our ridging aloft while also turning the mid-level flow
to a more srly direction as well, allowing a deeper moisture
return to set up into mid-week. A strong shortwave is progged to
push through the Four Corners Region and into the srn Plains
through Wednesday, taking on a slight negative tilt as it moves
into the wrn Gulf Region by Wednesday night...this system will
also push its attendant sfc frontal boundary through the forecast
area by sunrise Thursday. Best POPs (chance neighborhood) are
being carried across the nrn zones where lift/moisture will be
best. Will also have to watch severe weather potential for the nrn
areas as forecast soundings indicate best shear/lapse rates. All
precip should move out of the area by Thursday morning, allowing
for a dry day and night...although the front is progged to quickly
wash out after departing the area and return flow will then re-
develop behind it.

A few showers/storms look possible on Friday mainly due to the
increased moisture and heating with no significant disturbances
noted in a swrly flow aloft. Better rain chances return for the
weekend as the next storm system aloft gets organized over the wrn
states and pushes ewd.

MARINE...
Winds/seas will increase tonight as the gradient begins to tighten
with low pressure moving into the srn Plains...with caution-
criteria winds looking possible during the day tomorrow. The
gradient will further tighten into Wednesday with caution winds
looking more likely...and the wrn waters could possibly touch
SCA-criteria for a time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  56  82  66 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  80  60  82  70 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  82  61  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  81  61  84  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...66


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