Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171108
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
508 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Patch of MVFR layer clouds has been pushing southward from the
Texas Panhandle while eroding; have added a tempo cloud layer for
KPVW for a couple hours this morning. Remaining cloud layers this
morning otherwise appear VFR. An upper low over northwest Mexico
will move across the Texas South Plains late this afternoon and
this evening spreading rain chances, isolated thunder, and
lowering cloud layers into the area. Most guidance maintains cloud
layers just above MVFR this evening, but easily could drop into
MVFR range. System will clear northeast late tonight. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Rain chances have improved for later today and early tonight as a
well defined disturbance over the central Gulf of California rotates
northeast and through the Texas South Plains later this evening.
Flow will be backed through the day allowing improved moisture with
precipitable water values rising to between 0.60" northwest and
0.90" in the southeast later this evening. Lift seems more certain
from a variety of sources, including isentropic upglide, left front
quadrant of a 115 knot subtropical jet lifting across the Texas Big
Bend, deep frontogenetic forcing especially between 850 and 700
millibars, and even a small amount of elevated instability (100 to
200 Joules per Kilogram.) We have increased shower and isolated
thunder mention for later today and early tonight, favoring areas on
the Caprock, especially the western third of the area this time.
Rain amounts appear in the tenth to quarter inch range, which is
significantly higher than potential from last nights views. Some
chance for an even heavier rain band to develop somewhere in the
western third to half of the area.

Disturbance will lift into the Panhandle after midnight and showers
will dwindle/end with trend towards clearing skies. Lows expected to
be similar to latest MOS guidance. RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
Upper level troughing will linger on Thursday but daytime
temperatures will still be able to climb well above seasonal
averages. Afterwards, brief short wave ridging will move over the
area from Thursday evening through Friday morning in advance of
several systems moving through a progressive pattern.

A shortwave will skirt north of the South Plains on Friday but
will drastically increase the height gradient over the region.
This will result in strong surface winds on Friday afternoon as
surface cyclogenesis develops in eastern Colorado into western
Kansas in response to this short wave. The surface cyclogenesis
and winds will continue into Saturday as another system emerges
from the southern Rockies. This system will strengthen as it moves
out onto the Southern Plains on Saturday. Along with strong winds,
this system will bring chances of precipitation. Lift associated
with an upper level jet nosing into the region on Saturday will be
fighting a dry low atmosphere to produce precipitation. However,
chances will continue into Sunday morning as moisture wraps around
into the Panhandle with this quick moving system. This system will
be followed by a cold front Sunday morning keeping the winds
increased on Sunday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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