Area Forecast Discussion
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920
FXUS64 KLUB 111119 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
519 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
TAF SITES WHICH WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WERE DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
PUSHING SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AND WAS LOCATED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AS OF 3 AM.  THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY 8 TO 10 AM.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
FOR THE CAPROCK AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW WIND COULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP.  DID UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS A
BIT WHERE WE TYPICALLY SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THESE CONDITIONS.
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 27/U.S. 87 WILL BE BELOW FREEZING WHILE
THOSE COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THE CAPROCK AND THE ROLLING PLAINS BOTH
SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE QUIET/DRY WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN THE GENERAL RULE SO FAR THIS
YEAR DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE OVER THE COMING WEEK. WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK WILL FLATTEN TO QUASI-ZONAL
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE REBUILDING ACROSS THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN GRADUALLY MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SEVERAL QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TO
OUR NORTH BRINGING THE OCCASIONAL DRY FROPA...THOUGH THE
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY FOR THE NWP TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES. REGARDLESS...DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

EARLY ON...A STRONG/COLD SURFACE HIGH SPILLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STILL GIVE THE SOUTH PLAINS A GLANCING BLOW.
THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THE INITIAL
SURFACE RIDGING NOSING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
BRINGING A QUICK RETURN TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BY MIDDAY. FULL
INSOLATION AND ONLY WEAK CAA WILL LIMIT THE COOLING...BUT WE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S /AS OPPOSED TO LOWER 70S/. THE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GRADUAL DRAW IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
THAT COULD SPELL A ROUND OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH SATURDAY...BUT HOW FAR TEMPERATURES CAN
RECOVER WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF ANY LOW
CLOUDS...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL DEPRESS OUR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES...WITH MILDER OVERNIGHTS BUT COOLER AFTERNOONS. ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THIS WEEKEND SOME DRIZZLE COULD GIVE THE BRIEF ILLUSION OF
PRECIPITATION.

VEERING FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL CARRY THE SHALLOW MOISTURE EASTWARD WITH
THE LATEST NWP NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GFS
SUGGESTS ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE OF JET
ENERGY EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL PLUNGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS A NEW TWIST AND
THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS MORE MUTED WITH THIS SIGNAL...SO
WE HAVE NOT GIVEN IT MUCH WEIGHT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THUS WE
CONTINUE TO CARRY FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S FROM THIS WEEKEND
ON THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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