Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 261143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
643 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Upper level trough swinging across the southern Texas Panhandle at
this time, with an apparent thunderstorm squall line aiming at
KPVW. Latest projections move this squall over KPVW close to or
shortly after 710 am/1210 UTC. A bowhead echo will pass just
north and strong winds on order of NW 25-30 with gusts to 40-45
knots are just south of the bowhead and aimed for KPVW. Will have
to watch close for winds impacting KLBB as well. Otherwise, the
IFR ceiling will be quite broken and then lifting with passage,
holding on to shower mention shortly after. No mention of showers
currently for KCDS but this could change depending on RADAR
progression of the activity upstream. Clouds will clear rapidly
later this morning with VFR and lighter winds dominating later
today and tonight. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 439 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

Sharp upper level low pressure trough over northeast New Mexico near
Logan will move southeast across the Texas Panhandle and Childress
late this morning. Dry air in the lowest 10 thousand feet will limit
shower efficiency, but the upper trough will at least bring a chance
for light showers through the morning via top-down moistening
favoring northern areas. Total rain amounts will be mostly a few
hundredths of an inch or less. A cold front with northerly winds has
been somewhat masked by the early morning showers but will show
better around daybreak bringing a period of solid northerly winds
with decent surface pressure rises and cold advection.

Shower chances will end around midday with clouds quickly breaking
up, and winds will ease during the afternoon as a weak 1008 millibar
surface ridge slides overhead. Temperatures, too, will recover back
into the mid and upper 60s. Tonight will be cooler, with surface
winds returning to southerly as the next surface low pressure trough
quickly gathers to the west. RMcQueen

Consensus for strong surface westerlies on Thursday is pretty
good as the base of an upper level trough pivots out of the
southern Rockies during the day, shifting toward the Central
Plains by early evening. Vort max on back side of wider trough
Thursday sharpens quickly and deepens over the Four-Corners region
early Friday. The low closes over New Mexico Saturday. With cooler
temps and drier air behind Fridays surface FROPA, and our CWA
mostly affected by the dry slot, best chances for precip will be
in deformation on the back side of the upper low as it shifts
northeast into the Central Plains late Saturday and early Sunday.
Strong dynamic forcing over limited thermo instability may produce
some isolated thunderstorms in most organized ares of showers, but
otherwise most of us will see periods of rain/rain showers that
will add up to a quarter of an inch of rain or less for Friday
through the weekend.

Highs on Thursday and Friday will be above normal then fall 15-20
degrees on Saturday and begin to rebound on Sunday. Mid-level
height rises Monday will lift temps back above normal until
another midweek trough works its way toward our longitude by




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