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FXUS64 KLUB 200433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW LOW CIGS AND VISBYS TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST MORE ADVERSELY AFFECTING KLBB THAN KCDS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
LATER IN THE MORNING UNDER EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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