Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
527 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions will continue through this evening and night.
Stronger afternoon winds will start to decrease and become more
north-northwesterly this evening. Around day break tomorrow winds
will start to shift westward then become southerly by the
afternoon. VFR conditions will continue Monday with afternoon
winds increasing between 10 and 15kts.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

Fire weather and wind will be the main concerns over the next week
for the West Texas region.

Brief short wave ridging will move overhead tonight but upper level
winds will already begin to back by Monday afternoon. This backing
of the winds will be in response to a digging trough diving down the
California coast. Surface lee troughing and cyclogenesis will
develop in southeastern Colorado on Monday afternoon in response to
this system. This will generate a strong pressure gradient
particularly in northeastern New Mexico and the western Panhandles.
Winds will decrease farther south of the western Texas Panhandle.
Also a result of the aforementioned upper level system will be the
return of low level moisture Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Lift
will not be terribly strong in the moisture rich low levels on
Tuesday but better precipitation chances may manifest by Wednesday
morning. The southern Rolling Plains stand the best chances of
seeing any measurable precipitation out of this moisture. We will
continue to see breezy southwesterly winds on Tuesday afternoon in
close proximity to the surface pressure trough. Upper level winds
will begin to increase overhead starting on Tuesday and will peak on
Wednesday afternoon.

Both the GFS and ECMWF have come into good agreement in bringing the
strongest height gradient over the area on Wednesday afternoon. Very
strong winds aloft will accompany this system. Models currently
depict around a 160kt upper level jet overhead with 500mb winds in
excess of 100kt. CIPS analog guidance indicates several notable
wildfire events as analogs. ERC values are expected to increase over
the next few days as well given the dry conditions. Wednesday will
be followed by a cold front early Thursday and short wave ridging
aloft. Surface lee troughing will regain control on Friday and
Saturday bringing breezy winds and warmer temperatures back to the
area with Saturday representing more of a spring time dryline.




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