Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230510

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
110 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High pressure will build south of the area through the weekend. A
dry cold front will cross the region Monday night followed by high
pressure through the middle part of next week. A cold front will
approach from the west Thursday and cross the area Friday.


As of 105 AM Sunday, clear skies across the region with light
winds allowing for good radiational cooling as temperatures have
already dropped into the 40s over all but the immediate coastal
areas. No changes needed to current forecast.


As of 2 PM Saturday...High pressure will drift S of region with
WNW low lvl flow. Atmosphere will remain quite dry and expect
mainly sunny skies. Thicknesses rise a bit and shld see 65 to 70
for highs area wide.


As of 330 AM Sat...Long term period will feature mainly dry
conditions and more seasonably cool late October temperatures.
Next chance of showers does not arrive until late in the week.

Sunday Night..Another cool night with lows dropping back into the
mid/upr 40s interior to 50s on the beaches.

Monday...A brief warmup back to above climo on Mon as flow backs
to the W in response to approaching reinforcing short wave/dry
cold front that will push through Mon night. Highs should reach
the mid/upr 70s as downsloping/diabatic flow off the mtns acts to
warm the bndry layer across E NC. Winds turn NW behind the dry
front Mon night with temps dropping back into the 40s (50s

Tuesday through Thursday...Seasonably cool conditions for this
period as cool Canadian high pres ridges into the region from the
north bringing high temps in the mid/upr 60s and lows in the 40
across the interior and 50s on the beaches.

Thursday Night into Friday...Introduced a chance of rain showers
for this period as next progressive short wave appears set to
translate across the Eastern CONUS. The 22/00Z operational GFS
appears to be a dry outlier due to lack of support from the
CMC/ECMWF, as well as its NCEP ensemble mean. Temps will warm back
into the 70s by day and 50s by night as return flow develops.


Short Term /Through 06Z Monday/...
As of 105 AM Sunday, light to calm winds across the area as high
pressure continues to build in from the west, but low-level dry
enough to preclude much in the way of fog formation overnight.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail Sunday into Sunday night.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thu/...
As of 330 AM Sat...VFR SKC is expected over the area through
middle part of next week as dry high pressure prevails across the


Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 105 AM Sunday, gusty NW winds continue, especially central
waters with gusts to 28 knots at Hatteras Inlet, 27 at Diamond
Buoy and 26 knots at Cape Lookout. This secondary surge should
start to wane toward morning. SCA expiring over the Pamlico Sound
at 2 am, and will monitor trends to see if it needs to be
extended. No other major changes on this update.
Winds and seas will finally drop below SCA lvls central and
northern waters by later Sun morn. Cont to lean closer to
wavewatch for seas as SWAN conts to show a high bias with offshore

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thu/...
As of 330 AM Sat...The high will pass to the south of the waters
Sun night with winds becoming W ahead of next front set to pass
through Mon night. Speeds generally 10-20 kt expected through Mon
night. The W winds become N on Tuesday and could see a brief
period of SCA especially northern waters as a surge to 15-25 kt is
possible. The N winds veer NE on Wednesday as high pres builds
into the Great Lakes region.


As of 2 PM Saturday...Water levels running about 1.5 ft above
normal on sound side of Hatteras Island this aftn. With cont NW to
WNW winds near 20 kts much of the night will extend the Coastal
Flood Advisory til late tonight for OBX as some minor coastal
flooding will likely persist.


NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150-



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