Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 200545
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM SAT...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CLOUDS CONT TO INCREASE
THRU DAYBREAK IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY HOLD STEADY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

PREV DISC...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES AT SOME
SITES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AND ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S..BUT EXPECT THOSE TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT. VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BUT WILL EXPECT MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL PRECIPITATION
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL SPAWN WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTLE LIFT AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING WITH PERHAPS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TO
BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON BUT CANT
RULE OUT PRECIP ANYTIME OF DAY. THE LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD
COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RISES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED MOST OF
SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES NOSES DOWN THE COAST FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT INTO THE LOW/MID 50S.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS AND INCREASED THEM
SOMEWHAT... AS MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIP. TOUGH TEMP FORECAST MON...AS CAD WILL BE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THINK THAT
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 50S COASTAL PLAIN...AND INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHERLY BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT.

DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE AS MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS INC AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE
MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID- ATLANTIC. AREA WILL BE IN FAVORABLE
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF APPROACHING DIGGING JET...AND LARGE SCALE
OMEGA/FGEN WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG
AND E OF HWY 17 AS EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP
AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM
SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO BACKED
SSE SFC FLOW. THOUGH IT REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...THERE COULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM PRODUCING LOCALIZED HIGH WIND GUSTS
OR AN ISO TORNADO GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM TUE NIGHT WITH VALUES HOLDING IN
THE 50S AND EVEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO THE 60S.

PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY WED
AFTERNOON AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND DEEP LAYER SWRLY DRYING OF THE
COLUMN INTRUDES. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WED WITH STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SOAR INTO THE 1380-1390M
RANGE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS AROUND 70. HAVE CAPPED HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 60S AS AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HIGHS.

DRY AND COOLER WITH NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 AM SAT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE CROSSES. BEST CHC OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE LATE MORN THRU AFTN
OVER SRN SITES HOWEVER SHLD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS
MUCH. CIGS SHLD MAINLY HOLD ABOVE 3000 FT THIS AFTN DID AND TEMPO
MVFR FOR A PERIOD LATER TODAY AT OAJ. OVERNIGHT CLOUDS SHLD CONT AS
PRECIP ENDS SRN TIER HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VFR CIGS. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AROUND SO SOME LOWER
CIGS POSS ESPCLY CLOSER TO CST BUT WILL KEEP IN VFR RANGE FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /SUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS WEAK LOW/COASTAL TROUGH MOVES
UP THE SE COAST. SUB- VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS FLOW WILL BE WEAK IN KICKING OUT ANY
LEFTOVER MOISTURE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 AM SAT...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...LIGHT N/NE WINDS CONTINUE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FEET DOWN SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER
SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET ALL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND WILL AT 3 TO 4 FEET ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...WINDS REMAIN NE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NE WINDS WILL BACK E THEN SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK COASTAL LOW AS NE/E GRADIENT IS PINCHED AS THE LOW RIDES
UP THE COAST. WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND EXPECT LIGHT AND VAR WINDS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS
WED. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INC DRAMATICALLY LATE TUE NIGHT
AND ESP WED BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WED EVENING. WINDS COULD BE
IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WED INTO THUR.
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATE THUR.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/CTC/BTC/TL








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