Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 012241
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 PM SAT...A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEST OF THE FRONT AND 70S
EAST OF THE FRONT. DESPITE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST...NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT THE LONE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE
ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT TO NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY MORNING THEN MOVE BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WESTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY TO MORE SE BY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFF THE
COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE
RETURN OF THE HEAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS
BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S INLAND. COULD SEE
MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE/WED AFTERNOONS WITH VALUES
NEAR 105. WILL CONTINUE SC/LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. CONVECTION THEN
BECOMES MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TUE WITH ISO/WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...GFS AND
ECMWF STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC...KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...THEN STALLS IT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW
ALONG IT WITH MORE MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS...IS
MUCH DRIER...AND HAS THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. KEPT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S/90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 639 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER EASTERN NORTH
AROLINA TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEST
MOISTURE EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORMS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST
BL AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
15-20KT TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THU...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT TO THE WEST MEANDERS AROUND...WITH SPEEDS
PICKING UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE W/WNW TOWARD MORNING. WINDS BECOMES MORE SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INLAND. SPEEDS AGAIN REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON..WITH
WINDS BECOMING 10-20KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 4 TO 6 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING TIMING AND
EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE S/SW FLOW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-5FT
THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/CMA
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CTC/CQD



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