Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 282217
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
617 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH VERY COLD NIGHT ON
TAP AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH INLAND.

PREV DISC...VERY COLD AIR WAS INVADING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES, DIMINISHING WINDS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LOWS EXPECTED AS READINGS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS (A FEW LOWER 20S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS). SINCE THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
GROWING SEASON WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR A HARD FREEZE
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FREEZING TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND SO HAVE ADDED OUTER BANKS DARE TO THE WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z MON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 12-18Z AND PERHAPS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH SO NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP...
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. TEMPS WARM SEVERAL DEGREES MON...
MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DESPITE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN IS SUPPRESSED
ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70 WHILE COOLER
WATER TEMPS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OBX AROUND 60. SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW.

HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NC
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEEPING POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE RANGE AND MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY
DRY. KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS FRI ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TENDING DRYER WITH
BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WHILE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS A BIT TRICKIER FOR SATURDAY AND DEPENDENT OF
TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS AOB 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES AND WED
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED...BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
CURRENTLY BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN 4 TO 7 FT ELEVATED SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND
MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-8FT...
HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY MON
MORNING UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT. NNW WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15KT WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT TUES MORNING. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST
TUE WITH WINDS BECOME SW BY TUE EVENING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUE NIGHT
WITH LOW TO THE NORTH ALLOWING WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AND AS HIGH AS 25KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES PUSHES
MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH S/SW WINDS RETURNING BY THU AND
INCREASING TO 10-20 FT. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-3FT THU MORNING BUT INCREASE
TO 3-5FT LATE WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.

RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MARCH 29TH
------------------------------------------

NEW BERN........28 IN 1966
CAPE HATTERAS...30 IN 1966
GREENVILLE......21 IN 1966
KINSTON.........25 IN 1947
MOREHEAD CITY...34 IN 1966, 1982, 1999, 2011

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/JME/SK
CLIMATE...CQD


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