Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 151921
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
221 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will deepen as it lifts to the northeast tonight
pushing a cold front through the region. High pressure will
build in from the west Saturday through Sunday. A complex
frontal system will affect the region early next week with high
pressure building in for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...As low pres moves NE away from the area
and deepens tonight it will push a cold front thru. Sct to bkn
high clouds expected into the evening ahead of a short wave then
clearing overnight as drier air moves in. Combo of CAA and
decent radiational cooling will lead to lows in the upr 20s/low
30s inland with 35 to 40 beaches where better breeze will
persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...High pres will build across with clr
skies expected as very dry airmass moves in. Below normal temps
with highs Sat upr 40s/low 50s and lows Sat night upr 20s/low
30s inland to mid/upr 30s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Weak ridging builds into the area this
weekend followed by a complex system moving into the region
early next week bringing better chances of rain.

Sunday...Weak ridging and sfc high pressure will keep
conditions dry. High pressure moves offshore Sun with
increasing clouds ahead of the next approaching shortwave.
Return flow will bring a warming trend Sun with highs expected
in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday night through Tuesday night...A better chance of rain
expected early next week as a series of dampening shortwave
troughs lift out of the southern plains and lift across the area
tapping into Gulf moisture. While model guidance is in somewhat
better agreement this morning, there remains some differences
with the strength and timing of the systems. 00z models have
trended drier with an upper ridge centered over the western
Caribbean and ridging into the Southeast holding strong with
very little shortwave energy remaining as they move across the
region, however we do get better jet dynamics Tue as a northern
stream trough pushes across the region with the attendant cold
front pushing across the region Tue night. Temps expected to be
above normal this period with predominant SW to W flow across
the region with highs generally in the low to mid 60s and lows
in the 40s inland to around 50 coast.

Wednesday through Thursday...High pressure builds into the
region Wed, then pushes offshore Thu ahead and the next northern
stream system digging into the Plains with dry conditions
expected across eastern NC. Highs expected to be in the 50s
Wed, then warming a few degrees to the upper 50s/low 60s Thu.
Wed night lows expected in the 30s inland to low 40s coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 1205 PM Friday...High confidence in VFR conditions
through this TAF period. Sct to bkn high clouds into early
evening ahead of short wave then mainly clr rest of period as
short wave exits. Combo of light WNW breeze and lowering dewpts
shld preclude fog from forming late tonight despite clr skies.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday. High pressure builds into the region over the weekend
but will see increasing clouds Sun in advance of the next system
approaching the region. Rain chances increase late Sun night or
Mon and continue through Tue with periods of sub-VFR conditions
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Sat/...
As of 215 PM Friday...WSW winds are starting to pick up as low
pres deepens to the N. Expect cont increasing WSW winds this
aftn becoming WNW this evening as low cont to deepen and cold
front crosses. SCA may be a bit marginal some wtrs but shld at
least see period of gusts aoa 25 kts peaking this evening. As
the high builds closer Sat winds will become W less than 15 kts
in the aftn. Seas will reach 4 to 7 ft this evening...highest
outer central wtrs. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft toward
morning then reach 2 to 3 feet later Sat.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Winds diminish to 5-10 kt Sat night, then
becomes S/SW around Sun afternoon as the high moves offshore
while seas subside to 1-2 ft late Sat night and Sun. The next
system approaches from the west early next week but uncertainty
remains with the details leading to a low confidence forecast.
Do expect winds to increase some as the system approaches and
have W/SW winds increasing to around 10-15 kt Sun night and Mon
and 10-20 kt Mon night and Tue ahead of a stronger cold front.
Seas expected around 2-3 ft Sun night and Mon building to 3-5 ft
Mon night and Tue and may build up to 6 ft across the outer
portions of the central/southern waters late Tue.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK



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