Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271500
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore today and remain over the
Western Atlantic through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the
region Thursday morning. High pressure will build in behind the
front through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Mon...No big changes with morning update. KLTX/KMHX
VWP indicate WAA regime per veering wind profiles. This verified
by increasing cloud cover to the west of the FA as atms moistens
a bit. High pres will continue to ridge into E NC keeping the
area dry today. Have backed off and retained slght chc pops to
just the OBX zones later this afternoon as weak coastal trough
holds off until this evening before migrating ashore. Temps on
track still to reach 65-70 today (60-65 OBX).

Previous discussion...As of 630 AM Mon...High pressure is
shifting off the coast this morning and will allow winds to
become SE by this afternoon. A coastal trof will develop this
afternoon as the high slides farther offshore. This will promote
some isolated showers to develop along the coastal counties
with the best chance over the OBX. The latest models showing a
decreasing trends in POPs, have decrease POPs to 20 percent. Mid
to high clouds will filter in from the west (ahead of a weak
shortwave) during the morning hours and then low clouds
developing along the coastal area coinciding with the coastal
trof. A warming trends will start again with temperature
climbing up to the upper 60 to around 70 inland and low/mid 60
OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Mon...A weak shortwave will move through the area
late tonight...resulting in isolated to scattered showers late
tonight. Models remain having a good consensus with the coastal
water/OBX area receiving most of the rain showers. Continued the
mention of isolated showers for the rest of the areas as models
remain to have a disagreement. Tonight will be mild with
overnight lows in low/mid 50s inland to mid/upper 50s OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...models appear in good agreement during
period. Main change with this forecast issuance was to increase
POPs to likely all zones Thursday night with decent short wave
energy and surface cold front moving across area. Overall
pattern warm but possibly wet conditions for Tuesday-early
Thursday period, then cooler and drier Thursday afternoon into
Saturday with warming again Sunday.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...models have come into slightly
better agreement with warm sector conditions prevailing as
surface high shifts offshore and warm front moves across west
and north of area. Weak shortwave energy will be moving across
in SW flow aloft and models continue to indicate scattered
precip threat, thus will continue low chance POPs for Tuesday
with slight chance Tuesday night. Temps will be well above
normal with highs into mid-upper 70s inland and around 70 coast.
Increasing SW winds and mostly cloudy skies will keep min temps
in lower 60s for Tuesday night (20 to 25 degrees above normal).

Wednesday...Guidance is good agreement that record warmth will
be possible with highs in the 80s as brisk southerly flow
prevails. Not expecting any significant precipitation although
an isolated shower can`t be ruled out. Some fire weather
concerns due to the warmth and expected strong winds but
forecast relative humidities are in the mid 50s which is well
above Red Flag criteria.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...A strong cold front
will move across the region late Wednesday night or Thursday
morning. With models in better agreement in timing, increased
POPs to likely Wednesday night and ended precip threat sooner on
Thursday. Mild lows in the 50s are expected Wednesday night and
continued mild but cooler Thursday with highs in the mid 60s.
Colder air begins to be felt Thursday night with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Sunday...The models remain in decent agreement
for this period. A dry secondary cold cold front will cross the
area Friday with highs 55 to 60 expected then high pressure
with seasonably cool and dry air will prevail across the region
through Saturday night. Low temperatures Friday night are
forecast to reach the lower to mid 30s and this could be a
concern for any sensitive vegetation that may have prematurely
started due to the abnormal warmth of the past couple of weeks.
Highs Saturday will be in the 50s and lows Saturday night
night in the mid to upper 30s. Dry weather is forecast to
continue Sunday but with some moderation in temperatures into
the 60s as the high center moves offshore and return SW flow
redevelops across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short term /through 06Z Tuesday/...
As of 630 AM Monday...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the TAF period. High pressure is shifting off the Delmarva
Peninsula this morning, and will allow winds to become southeast
this afternoon. Mid to high clouds will start filtering into
the area from the west (ahead of a shortwave). Some stratus
clouds will move in from the coastal waters during the afternoon
and effect KEWN/KOAJ, but remain above 3kft. Winds will become
light overnight from the SSE and guidance is indicating possible
fog development for the inland TAF sites. At this time, its not
mentioned in TAF`s due to low confidence.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Sub VFR conditions possible in scattered
showers/tstms Tuesday as well as in moist S-SW flow Tuesday
night. VFR expected to prevail in warm sector conditions
Wednesday than a better chance of sub VFR with more widespread
shower/tstm coverage Wednesday night. Cooler and drier and
prevailing VFR expected Thursday-Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 10 AM Monday...Latest NOAA/WXFLOW obs indicate NE to E
light winds across marine domain. High pressure is currently
sliding off the coast this morning as a weak coastal trough
develops this afternoon. Winds remain ENE most of the day across
the Pamlico sound though veer SE across the outer coastal
waters in vcnty of the Gulf Stream. This will promote isolated
showers by this afternoon across the waters and eastern Pamlico
sound. Seas will remain in the 2-4 feet and winds ranging 5-15
knots. Southerly winds will increase tonight over the
central/southern coastal waters 15-20 knots as the gradient
tightens with seas responding. Seas will generally 2-4 ft with 5
footers along the central waters.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Rough marine conditions with gusty winds
and elevated seas are expected for much of the period.
Increasing S-SW winds expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a low
end Gale possible late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds
shift to NW 15 to 20 kt behind the front Thursday morning and
diminish to W/NW 10 to 15 kt Thu afternoon and night behind the
initial cold front. A secondary cold front is forecast to cross
the waters Friday afternoon with the flow becoming NW and
increasing to 20 to 25 kt.

Seas expected to build to 6-7 feet outer waters Tuesday night,
peaking at 8-12 feet Wednesday night. Seas will briefly
subside below 6 ft Thursday night then build back to 4 to 7 ft
Friday afternoon.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL/BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM
MARINE...JBM/TL/BM



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