Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 240200
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 3 KM
HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AROUND 09Z OR SO AND HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT DROP IN
POP/QPF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...RAMPING BACK UP TOWARD
MORNING. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN
OFFSHORE THAT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING. CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME CONCERN ABOUT ROTATING
CELLS LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES COAST WITH GOOD
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE TROUGH.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MANY INLAND SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOW 60S COAST...EXCEPT UPPER 60S OUTER
BANKS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH FURTHER GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, RAIN WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHUD SEE AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING NEARER THE COAST CONTINUING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING DURING THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK MIXING SO CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY LINGER THRU THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 60S INLAND.
WARM SOUTH FLOW AT THE COAST MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S
DESPITE PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLY ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ENDS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WEAKENS MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS
WITH AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY AND
WEAKENING UPR LOW. CHANCES OF HEAVIER WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY EXPECTED ASSOC WITH DRIER
AIR UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE. UPR LVL RIDGING EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW POPS FCST.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. NIGHTTIME
TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 60S UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WIND
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...NOW REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS AT KISO IN AN
AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL TAF SITES TO GRADUALLY
DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AS STEADY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR TO LINGER
THRU MUCH OF WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING TENDS TO ERODE THE LOWEST
CLOUD LAYERS BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SUB VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SCT TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THU AS RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT THOUGH SCT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
COULD BE LATE NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK EACH NIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 10 PM TUESDAY...STRONG GUSTY N/NNE WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WELL INTO THE 20S AT OTHER
SPOTS. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WHICH CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY ON THE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND AND INTO THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE WATERS. SEAS ALSO CONTINUE
ROUGH WITH 7 FEET 13 MILES EAST OF OREGON INLET AND 8 FEET AT
DIAMOND BUOY. WINDS WILL VEER E/SE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROF TO THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL
LINGER THRU WED AFTN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL END FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THEN THE NORTHERN WATERS AS SLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT
HIGHEST NRN WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WED
NIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AROUND 15 KT BY THU NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-5 FT HIGHEST NRN AND CNTRL
COASTAL WATERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS IN
LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-
     092>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...JAC/TL
AVIATION...JAC/CTC/BTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC/BTC





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