Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 061924
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.  A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER
EASTERN NC SUNDAY THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. PATCHY SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT PER LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. WHILE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF FOG TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LOWS AREA-WIDE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S. THE THREAT OF
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/HAIL APPEARS TO BE ON THE WANE BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY STORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THE GULF COAST. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING
WITH MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
OUTER BANKS TO THE LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED SC
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
WITH MODELS SHOWING INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT QPF WITH
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE WEAKENING/EXITING
UPPER LOW. WILL KEEP SC SHOWERS SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR. TEMPS WARM QUITE A BIT SUN WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING AHEAD OF APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL GET BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF
PUSHES IT THE FURTHEST SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...WHILE THE
GFS AND THE NAM KEEP IT MORE TOWARDS HWY 264.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
NORTH WITH S/SW RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARM AND DRY
WX EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO MID 80S...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S INLAND.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE LATE WEEK WITH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS BUILDING AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY, SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS INLAND AND ALONG
AN INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 145 PM FRI...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SUB 3000 FOOT CLOUDS ARE LINGERING BUT HAVE
BECOME SCATTERED. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO OVER 10K FT THIS EVENING. ONLY
AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WHERE ADDITIONAL RAIN HAS
FALLEN AND THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST. ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY
MID MORNING AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN UNDER LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK AND
MOISTURE- STARVED BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...WINDS CONTINUE SW/W AT 5-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 19 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE STILL
HOVERING BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET OFF OREGON INLET AND DIAMOND...BUT
TRENDS FROM LOCAL SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW WAVES DROPPING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE HANDLED WITH A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT 5-15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. SEAS SHOULD DROP FROM 3-5 FEET TONIGHT TO 2-4
FEET SATURDAY PER LATEST SWAN/NWPS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT. SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO
15-25KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. COULD SEE SEAS BRIEFLY
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH PERIOD OF SCA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-15KT LATE SUN WITH SEAS 3-5FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY 10 -15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD.
SW FLOW 10-20 KT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SEAS 2-5FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ095.
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/DAG
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...CTC/CQD



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