Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 290157
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
957 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Bonnie is forecast to make landfall along the
South Carolina coast Sunday, then weaken to a depression by Sunday
night. The low will slowly drift northeast near the NC coast
Monday through mid week. A frontal boundary will approach the
region by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 950 pm Saturday, the forward progress of Tropical Storm
Bonnie toward the SC coast has stalled a bit further delaying
precipitation moving into eastern NC. The 00Z has moistened
considerably from this morning with precipitable water values up
to 1.8 inches. Band of showers about 50 miles offshore may clip
some of our coastal counties after midnight. Have lowered PoPs
across the board to low chance inland to around 40-50 percent
coast mainly after 06-08Z. With a moist airmass in place, no
change to forecast minimum temperatures in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 pm Sat...Tropical Depression Two is forecast to make
landfall as a weak tropical storm along the SC coast Sunday, then
weaken back to a depression. Plentiful moisture will continue to
advect into the region with deep warm cloud layer and PWAT values
around 2 inches. Scattered to numerous showers expected across the
area. Will maintain likely pops. Periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall will be possible across the area. Will continue sc
thunderstorm mention, though widespread cloud cover should limit
instability. However cannot rule out an isolated tornado threat
with low topped convection, mainly along the coast, given the
position of the cyclone. Low level thickness values and widespread
clouds/precip support highs in the low/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sat...The remnants of Bonnie will drift slowly
northeastward near the coast of SC on Sun night and then along the
NC coast Mon through Tue. Periods of locally heavy rainfall and
increased rip current threat are main impacts we will see from
this system.

Sunday Night/Monday...Deep tropical moisture will continue to
feed north northwest on the east side of the tropical system.
This will lead to bouts of numerous SHRA and isold to scattered
TSRA...and cont likely pops thru Monday. Given PW`s around 2
inches, which is near 2 S.D. above climo, will see locally very
heavy rainfall at times poor drainage type flooding and ponding of
water on roads possible. Will be quite uncomfortably muggy with
highs in the 80s and lows in the low 70s.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Decent coverage of shra and a few TSRA
will continue as the remnant low continues to drift along the NC
coast. Will cont likely to high chance pops with again locally
heavy rainfall possible. Best chances for rain appear to be
eastern half of the FA this period along and northeast of the low
track. Despite the low near the area winds will remain rather
light with fcst slp to remain above 1000 mb. Little temp change
with all the moisture in the area with highs again 80-85 and lows
near 70.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...As the low slowly moves east and
northeast away from the area coverage of SHRA will diminish and
pattern will become more summery with typical diurnal convection
across the interior with lesser chances along the beaches. Temps
will remain above climo with heights/thicknesses above average
with highs well into the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.
A frontal system will slowly approach by the weekend with perhaps
a better coverage of convection by Sat and have 30-40 pops as a
result.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Monday/...
As of 640 PM Saturday, with the lower levels remain relatively
dry, have continued VFR conditions and reduced rain chances
through about 06Z. Gradually lower ceilings to MVFR after midnight
with a period of IFR through mid-morning Sunday as shower coverage
increases. Will maintain MVFR ceilings for the balance of the day
on Sunday although confidence is medium given the potential
amount/coverage of precipitation around the TAF sites.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Sat...Remnant tropical low will drift along and near
the NC coast through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers
expected thru early next week as long as the low is in vicinity.
These showers will lead to periods of MVFR/IFR, especially thru
Tue. With low levels very moist could also have some light
fog/lower stratus develop during the late night/early morning
hours as winds expected to be very light.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 955 PM Saturday, current marine forecast in good shape. Seas
are ranging from 2-3 feet in the far northern waters to 4-6 feet
south. Seas should continue to build slowly from south to north
overnight and will continue SCA for waters south of Oregon Inlet
into Sunday as combination of increasing swell energy from
Tropical Storm Bonnie combined with persistent onshore flow, which
will make for rough seas. Expect E/SE winds 10-15 kt overnight
increasing to 10-20 knots on Sunday. Think seas south of Ocracoke
will drop below 6ft late Sunday morning and early afternoon...though
will likely remain elevated across the central waters through the
period.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Sat...Predominant SE to S winds 10 to 15 kts with
some gusts 15 to 20 kts through Monday with weak tropical system S
of area. As the weakening low drifts NE near the NC coast Mon into
Tue will see winds grad become more E then eventually NE behind
the slowly exiting system. Uncertainty remains however as to
timing of when the low will pass the waters, therefore winds are
subject to change. It does appear however that winds will remain
sub SCA as system will be quite weak. Wavewatch and SWAN continue
to show marginal 6 foot seas outer central and southern waters Sun
night into Mon, otherwise mainly 3 to 5 feet. By Tue seas primarily
2-4 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 PM Sat...Periods of heavy rain will develop by Sunday due
to the tropical system approaching the area. Heaviest rain at this
time looks to fall Sunday night through Monday, though scattered
to numerous showers will continue through Tuesday as the low
slowly drifts along and near the E NC coast through mid week.
Localized flooding of poor drainage areas and ponding of water on
roads are possible, along with eventual river rises.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for NCZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD/TL
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL/SGK
MARINE...CTC/CQD/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX



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