Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 171757
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
157 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure moves off the coast today. A cold front will
move into the area this weekend and stall. This front will move
south of the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...Convection starting to fire up over our
far southwest, and across central NC. Forecast in good shape
with no big changes to the precip forecast. WFO Raleigh and
Wilmington expanded a heat advisory toward our border. Dewpoints
have dropped the past two hours at Kinston and Greenville (from
the upper 70s), so we are falling short of criteria here (105).
Across Duplin and Onslow counties a few obs support heat indices
near 105 now, but convection here is firing up. Feel while an hour
or so of heat indices around 105 are likely, duration won`t be
long enough to meet criteria like they are currently doing just
west of our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...Inland showers expected to diminish
during the evening with loss of heating but the upper ridge
pushes east after midnight with shortwave energy approaching
from the west and could see a few showers moving into the
coastal plain after midnight and may Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon, mainly west
of highway 17. Light southerly winds and increasing clouds with
an approaching system expected to limit fog development tonight
but could see patchy light fog late bringing mainly MVFR vsbys.
Could also see a few showers move into the region after
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...A more unsettled pattern is expected
Friday and Saturday, before slightly drier air takes hold Sunday
into early next week. An approaching mid-level trough will lead
to better rain chances by the middle of next week.

Friday through Saturday...A northward moving frontal trough
Friday will lead to an increase in low-level moisture and
instability and higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours Friday and
Saturday. Instability will be especially high for Friday with
forecast CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg and LI values in the
range of -8 to -10 during peak heating. Will have high chance
PoPs Friday and Saturday. A decent mid-level shortwave may also
keep storms going over the northern tier Friday night and will
have high chance PoPs north and slight chance south overnight
Friday night. Temperatures will also be quite warm Friday with
the SW winds, reaching the lower 90s over all but the immediate
coast. Temperatures may be a degree or two cooler for Saturday,
but still warm and very humid.

Sunday through Tuesday...Somewhat drier conditions are expected
Sunday into Tuesday as a mid-level ridge expands across the
area leading to hot temperatures and less convection as
precipitable water values drop to 1.5 inches or less for a
couple of days. There may be a few storms along the sea breeze,
but PoPs will be below climo through this period.

Wednesday...Upper ridge retrogrades to the west as a
strengthening mid-level trough dives south across the eastern
portion of the country. This will lead to better chances of
showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday into the latter part of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...Outside of convection, VFR expected
through tonight. Best chances for convection through 0Z will be
at KISO/KOAJ and KPGV. Unlike the past few nights winds in the
boundary layer are strong enough to preclude fog or low stratus
formation. A better shot for storms all terminals again from mid
morning on Friday, with sub VFR conditions possible.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail for much of
the extended period. However, occasional MVFR ceilings and vsbys
may occur in scattered convection Friday and Saturday with some
locally heavy downpours and gusty winds probable. A somewhat
drier pattern will lead to much smaller chances of precipitation
Sunday and Monday. Some early morning fog and patchy stratus
may also be possible in areas that receive decent rainfall
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...Weak high pressure moves off the mid-
Atlantic coast today allowing light northerly flow below 10
knots to veer to south through the afternoon. Southerly flow
around 5-15 kt expected tonight with slight tightening of
gradients as a system approaches from the west. Seas will remain
around 2-3 ft through the period.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...A fairly quiet marine forecast through
the extended period. High pressure offshore will lead to several
days of SW winds at 15 knots or less. Seas will generally run
2-4 feet through the extended period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/EH
MARINE...CTC/SK



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