Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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122
FXUS62 KMHX 062056
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SATURDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH STATES OVERNIGHT, INDUCING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO NEAR 1000 MB BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WELL NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY. LIGHT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BY SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION OF THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION BY 06Z THOUGH LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 33-36 F ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SUPPORTING AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FROM ROUGHLY 07-14Z. SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS
FALL TO NEAR ZERO LATE TONIGHT SUPPORTING FROZEN P-TYPE. LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF DUSTING LATE TONIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT, HIGHEST
ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
EXIT OFF THE GA/FL COAST SUNDAY AND BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN SUNDAY, DROPPING TO SUB-990MB BY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN IT IS PROGGED TO BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NC COAST. A STRONG NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FOR THE
OUTER BANKS AND DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY, WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 40
MPH, GUSTING NEAR 45 MPH, FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17
ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE/PAMLICO SOUNDS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND CARTERET COUNTIES. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE SOUNDS
AND EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE SATURATED SOILS FROM A SYSTEM THAT
RECENTLY PRODUCED 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN, MAY LEAD TO A FEW DOWNED
TREES OR POWERLINES. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS, SEE COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION BELOW.

THE LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST QUICKLY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS CARTERET AND OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE
COUNTIES. POPS INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL ALONG/EAST OF HWY 17 WITH
CHANCE FAR INLAND BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR GREEN/PITT/MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z WHERE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING MAY SUPPORT MIXED P-TYPE, THEN ALL LIQUID EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE NEAR ONE QUARTER INCH INLAND TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR CARTERET/OUTER BANKS, BUT MAY NOT BE DISTINGUISHABLE
FROM COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...SUN NIGHT: A MAJOR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFF OF THE NC COAST SUN EVENING WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS/HEAVY COASTAL RAINS/COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL
BE WANING LATE AT NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE WINDS
DIMINISH AND PCPN ENDS.

MON THROUGH FRI: A DEEP EASTERN US UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
DEAMPLIFY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD BUT DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW WILL TEND TO INHIBIT PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS INDICATE
MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH FOR PCPN ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE
MON THROUGH TUE SO WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS BUT ANY PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
WEEK. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE TO PRODUCE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 50S
FRI AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES.

SAT: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SIGNALING THAT THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH COULD RE-AMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND SENDING A STRONG BUT DRY
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE REGIONAL AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BUILT INTO THE AREA AND WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECASTED
TO FORM OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST NEAR CAPE HATTERAS. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...20-30 KTS WILL BEGIN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBLILITES WILL RESULT IN
LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BACK TO VFR.

LONG TERM /SUN THROUGH WED/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SUB-
VFR IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25
KNOTS. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. DRY/VFR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY...WEST
15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. A STRONG COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS BELOW 990 MB. PREVIOUS GALE
WATCHES AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH GALE WARNINGS
AND STORM WARNINGS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35-45 KT
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN
EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, GALES WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERLY
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND PEAK AT 15-20 FT SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN END OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL INCREASE TO 3-6 FT SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA COAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND WITH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-10 FEET BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
WATERS AND UP TO 6 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. NO CHANGE TO
CURRENT MARINE HEADLINES, THOUGH CONVERSION FROM GALE WATCH TO
WARNING AND STORM WATCH TO WARNING EXPECTED WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

LONG TERM /SUN THROUGH WED/
AS OF 330 AM SAT...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST...WITH WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND/OR ROUGH SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS ON
THE RIVERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A FAST-MOVING FRONT MONDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BACK FURTHER TO WEST THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 355 PM SATURDAY...RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF OF THE NC COAST WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WATER
LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND/NEUSE RIVER ALONG DOWN EAST CARTERET
COUNTY (INCLUDING CEDAR ISLAND) TO OCRACOKE AND OVER PORTIONS OF
HATTERAS ISLAND VULNERABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS.

ON THE OCEAN SIDE, WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SHORE BREAK IN EXCESS
OF 10 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO BEACH EROSION AND
SOME OCEAN OVERWASH.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ046-
     047-080-081-092>094-098.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ095.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131-150.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-
     154.
     STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG/LEP
MARINE...JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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