Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 070424
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1224 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM TUESDAY...ADDED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS...OTRW NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. SFC TROF
RMNS OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALLOWING
FOR A PERSISTENT MOIST S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HI RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND RAIN FREE INLAND. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT LOW TEMPS
TO RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...SFC PATTERN GENERALLY THE SAME ON TUE WHILE
AT UPR LVLS SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE SHEARING OUT TO N...RESULTING IN
WEAK VORT ENERGY ALONG NC COAST AND PUSHING INTO COASTAL
PLAINS...VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS JUST
ALONG COAST IN MORNING...THEN CHC POPS NW HALF OF AREA IN AFTN
WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC SE HALF. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE
POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND
BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD BRINGING
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY BRINGING BETTER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER
80S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM TUESDAY...FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM
INLAND...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
IN THE MORNING...ANTICIPATE ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT
WITH CU DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. WITH A SFC TROUGH SITUATED TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LWR VSBYS/CIGS INVOF
OF CONVECTION. PRECIP QUICKLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGE ON UPDATE. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE
INDICATING WINDS FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS. PERSISTENCE FCST DURING THE PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND
TROF PATTERN CONTINUING. GDNC IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SW WINDS
10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WILL BE THE GENERAL
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE BRINGING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS SHIFTING
TO N/NE AND EVENTUALLY ELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WAVEWATCH
AND NWPS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT OCCASIONALLY TO 5
FT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JAC/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JAC/SK/HSA/LEP
MARINE...JAC/JBM/SK/HSA/BM



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