Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 181414
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1014 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through late this
week then slide offshore over the weekend. A strong cold front
will approach from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1010 AM Wed...Some patchy stratus remains off the coast
otherwise a sunny start to the day. Adjusted hourly temps up to
reflect a faster temperature rise and after a cool start temps
shld moderate nicely with highs reaching upr 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wed...Good radiational cooling expected once again
inland as winds go light and skies remain mclr. Cont prev fcst
of lows ranging from around 45 well inland to 50s/around 60
beaches. Added patchy fog late well inland as dewpts are fcst
to be a bit higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the long term with temps moderating back to above climo
by the end of the week, then a strong cold front progged to push
through the region early next week.

Thursday through Friday...High pressure will build into the
region and remain through the end of the week bringing clear and
dry weather with light northeast winds through this period. Low
relative humidities will spell mild days and seasonably cool
nights. Temps start out a bit below normal with lows in the mid
40s interior to mid/upr 50s beaches Thu morning, then as the
week goes on low level thicknesses rise each day with high temps
creeping back above climo with readings 75-80 both Thu and Fri,
cooler low 70s on the OBX.

Saturday through Sunday...High pressure will slowly ease offshore,
and winds will veer a bit more to the east by Sunday with
slight increase in RH vals. Low lvl thicknesses on par with MOS
guide in forecasting high temps around 80 for most areas, with
lows 50-55 interior to 60-65 coast. Column moisture remains very
low so continued dry forecast with mostly sunny skies.

Monday and Tuesday...Next significant shortwave/cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. Ahead of the
system, winds become southerly and strengthen by Monday bringing
surge of increasing deep layer moisture into the region, with
increasing clouds and shower chances. Still differences in
timing as run-to-run consistency amongst global model suite
having a tough time resolving amplitude of short wave trough and
thus timing of the associated cold front. Have maintained the
small chance pops for Monday, increasing a bit to 40-50% Mon
night and Tuesday when this looks like the best chance for
showers attm. Too early to tell if thunder will be a factor, but
have included slight chc thunder mention as at least some weak
instability will be present with decent shear parameters. Highs
in the upr 70s/near 80 and lows quite mild in the 60s with
strong southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 615 AM Wed...Pred VFR thru the period with high pres in
control and a dry airmass leading to mainly clr skies. Any
lingering patchy fog well inland will quickly dissipate early
this morn. Conditions again look favorable for shallow
radiational fog tonight. Guidance is showing a bit more so will
add some to fcst espcly PGV where have best chc for ocnl IFR
after 06Z.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long
term as high pressure builds into the region. However, there
will be optimal radiational conditions each morning, and some
patchy steam fog may be possible at both KPGV and KEWN with
their proximity to rivers.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and tonight/...
As of 1015 AM Wed...Seas remain 6 feet central and southern
waters, with SCA continuing. High pres to the NW will slowly
move S and remain to the W tonight. This will cont to produce NE
winds mainly 10 to 15 kts north and 15 to 25 kt central and S.
Seas of 4 to 7 feet today will finally drop below 6 feet central
and srn wtrs late tonight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...The gradient relaxes later Thursday through
the weekend with high pressure nearby. N to NE winds through
Sat becoming more easterly on Sunday though speeds only 5-10 kt
through the period with seas 2-4 ft bringing excellent boating
conditions throughout the marine zones.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/EH
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/EH/TL



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