Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301410
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
A DRY START TO THE DAY THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED RETURNS ON RADAR
SAVE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A FRONT
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. SOME MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL DYNAMICS REMAIN LESS THAN STELLAR...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PRESENT IN THIS MORNING`S SOUNDINGS. WITH AMPLE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 4. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST.

OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING SO AM
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING FROM KMCO/KISM NORTHWARD. TEMPO MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN
ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT MOVES OVER TERMINALS...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. VCSH
INSERTED INTO THE TAFS AFTER 20Z/21Z FOR NOW. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE INTO TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE REGION. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO BECOME E/NE. ISOLATED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFT INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS LATE/TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND UP TO 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  61  78  54 /  30  30  10   0
MCO  86  63  79  55 /  20  30  10   0
MLB  84  63  79  58 /  20  20  20   0
VRB  83  64  81  55 /  10  20  20   0
LEE  85  62  78  55 /  30  30  10   0
SFB  85  63  80  56 /  30  30  10   0
ORL  86  64  79  58 /  30  30  10   0
FPR  83  62  81  55 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER







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