Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 070159
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
859 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RAIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THEN WINDY/COLDER SUNDAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...
NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
REMNANT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN WILL LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND DEEPER MIXING ENSUES.

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.  CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ESPECIALLY
COLD POOL AT 500 MB (MINUS 15 TO 25 CELSIUS)...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
AND A STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN
THE SOUTH.  THESE LOWS MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH MOS/LAV
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST LOWS.  HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  IT WILL FEEL
COLDER SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR MANY PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 4.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT LIGHTER RAIN SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE LONGER.  LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL BUT
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.  DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR
THE 20 NAUTICAL MILE MARK FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE AND GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SHARP


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