Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 021940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED S OF THE AL/MS BOOTHEELS
WILL COMBINE WITH AN ERLY WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/SRN CUBA TO
GENERATE A DEEP AND STEADY ERLY FLOW ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. LURKING
UPSTREAM...H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 85-90PCT ALONG WITH A THIN
H85-H50 VORT BAND N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT INTO THE LCL ATLC
WATERS. ALOFT...A 40-50KT H25 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA TO
THE N BAHAMAS WILL PROVIDE UPR LVL EVACUATION.

DEEP ERLY FLOW PUSHING DIURNAL CONVECTION STEADILY ACRS CENTRAL FL
THIS AFTN. AS IN RECENT DAYS...MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE CWA WELL BEFORE SUNSET. WILL KEEP INTERIOR POPS AOB 10PCT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE ATLC...THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHRAS/TSRAS DVLPG OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
PUSHING ONSHORE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC SHRAS IN
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES S OF THE CAPE...N OF THE CAPE THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS SHOULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM FORMING OUTSIDE THE GULF
STREAM.

LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGS ABV AVG.

WED-WED NIGHT...
INCRSG DYNAMIC INSTABILITY AS THE MID LVL ERLY WAVE PUSHES INTO S
FL...ALLOWING NOTEWORTHY POCKETS OF H85-H50 VORTICITY TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL FL. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BCMG MORE FAVORABLE AS WELL WITH
H70 TEMPS COOLING TO ARND 8C...H50 TEMPS TO ARND -8C...RESULTING IN
LAPSES BTWN 6.0-6.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
FROM S-N...WILL GO WITH 50PCT POPS ARND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION...DECREASING TO 30-40PCT ELSEWHERE DUE TO LINGERING DRY MID
LVL AIR. MAX TEMPS IN THE L90S WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO
AVG...ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS ABV AVG.
(L/M70S).

THU-FRI...(MODIFIED PREV DISC)
PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY THU AND WEAKENS INTO FRI.
S-SE FLOW WILL ADVECT FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE INTO EAST CENTRAL FL. MID
LVL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH POPS TO 40-60PCT
BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC)
INVERTED TROUGH DAMPENS OUT BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE
SOUTH WILL REACH INTO S GA OR N FL...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OR ACROSS THE REGION PREVENTING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH TO
KEEP POPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR BOTH SEA BREEZES TO FORM...THOUGH EAST COAST
DOMINANT...WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. STILL EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 03/00Z...S OF KTIX-KISM SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS...N OF
KTIX-KISM ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS. AFT 03/00Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GULF COAST TO
BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL
ATLC WATERS. SEAS AOB 2FT IN AN ERLY BACKGROUND SWELL...DOMINANT PDS
8-9SEC. ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET DUE TO CONVERGENCE
CLOUD BANDS FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN BAHAMAS.

WED-SUN...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE BREEZE WED NIGHT AND THU AS AN ERLY WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/SRN CUBA WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE FL PENINSULA...
GENERATING 2-3FT SEAS. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS IT REMAINS N OF CENTRAL FL...PRODUCING A
GENTLE BUT STEADY E/SE BREEZE...SEA 1S-2FT. PRIMARY BOATING CONCERN
WILL BE SCT SHRAS AND TSTMS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CROSSES THE
PENINSULA INTO GULF...HIGHEST COVERAGE THU-FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  93  74  93  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLB  90  76  90  77 /  20  10  20  30
VRB  89  75  90  76 /  20  10  20  40
LEE  93  74  94  75 /  40  10  30  10
SFB  93  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  93  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
FPR  88  73  90  75 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....CRISTALDI





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