Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210659
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
259 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...Another Round of Storms Again This Afternoon...

Today and Tonight...Little change in the regional pattern today will
lead to a persistent forecast as a favorable wet season SW flow
pattern combines with daytime instability to produce sct to
numerous afternoon storms. A mid level circulation/low moving wwd
toward the NE gulf wl provide unsettled conditions with slightly
cooler temps aloft. This will lead to the chance of a few stronger
storms with hail and downburst winds through mid-afternoon. Storm
level steering winds out of the SW wl move activity to the FL E
coast and Atlc waters during the late afternoon and into evening
with storms over land coming to an end by around midnight. Expect
highs in the L90s and lows tonight in the M70s.

Sat-Sun...Remnants of weak mid-level low will continue to retrograde
along the Gulf Coast States, west of Florida, to across southeast
Texas during the period. Other mid-level energy along the east FL
coast will drift northward slowly to off of the northeast Fl/SC
coasts. The flow aloft remains light zonal. Latest model runs do not
shift the low-level Atlantic ridge axis quite as far north, but do
shift it towards the central FL peninsula. PWAT values still soar to
around or just in excess of two inches. Storm steering flow remains
mainly out of the southwest at up to 10 mph. With periodic impulses
aloft and 500 mb temperatures forecast -7C to -8C, see no reason
while we would not see SCT-NMRS (50-60pct) afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms daily. Sea breezes/daily heating should both promote
convective development by late morning/early afternoon across ECFL.
Highs will be low 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Mon-Thu...The low-level ridge axis is forecast to lie between
central/south-central FL thru this time. Deep layer moisture values
sufficient enough to continue at least SCT mention for daily
afternoon/early evening showers/storms. The storm motion is forecast
to be of a light westerly component, though late day boundary
collisions may make storm motion chaotic at times. Continue to see
daily threats from storms to include torrential downpours leading to
nuisance minor flooding over areas that have recently seen heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning in a few
storms, as well as small hail. Cannot rule out a couple of locally
strong storms each day. 500 mb temperatures still forecast around -
6C/-7C each day. Seasonal temps in the M70s for lows and highs in
the L90s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Early development of showers/storms is expected along the coastal sea
breeze, with activity forming further inland through afternoon.
Cig/Vsby reductions to Tempo MVFR conds and brief IFR wl be
possible mainly from early through mid-aftn at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...The surface Wrn Atlc high will remain
centered just to the south of the local waters for one more day,
keeping winds light out of the south. An onshore sea breeze wl
develop during the afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet, occasionally 3 feet
well offshore.

Another round of lightning storms forecast to develop close to
the intracoastal waters, especially along the Space and Treasure
Coasts. Mariners are reminded that sudden wind shifts and choppy
seas can occur in and near lightning storms.

Sat-Tue...The low-level Atlantic ridge axis generally around central
FL through this time. Winds will vary from S/SE during the day to
S/SSW in the evening/overnight with speeds AOB 15 kts. Seas
generally 2 ft very near shore and up to 3 ft offshore (occasionally
4 ft well offshore). Biggest threat to mariners will be from
night/morning Gulf Stream convection and late morning/afternoon-
early evening convection along the east coast intracoastal/near
shore Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  91  74 /  50  30  50  30
MCO  93  75  93  74 /  60  30  50  30
MLB  90  73  90  74 /  50  30  60  30
VRB  90  73  90  74 /  60  30  60  30
LEE  94  76  92  76 /  50  20  50  20
SFB  94  75  93  75 /  50  30  50  30
ORL  94  76  92  75 /  60  30  50  30
FPR  90  73  90  73 /  60  40  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Sedlock



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