Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230911 CCA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
405 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

CORRECTED to add Lake Wind Advisory and High Surf Advisory to WWA
section for Volusia County.

.DISCUSSION...

Currently-Today...A surface low pressure center was near the east
central Florida coast early this morning and causing gusty
conditions along the Volusia coast. The models are in agreement with
moving the associated mid/upper level low steadily east/northeast,
but show varying solutions with the evolution of the surface low.
With this rather anomalous system, will favor maintaining a tight
pressure gradient in our far north. So will plan on a lake wind &
high surf advisory for coastal Volusia. The highest POPs (60
percent) will also be there, though precip amounts look greatly
tempered compared to yesterday. Southern sections will be on the
back side of the mid/upper low, so subsidence and drying will cause
POPs to taper down to 20 percent there.

Winds across the south half were rather light early this morning and
overall cloudiness there was less, so patchy fog has been occurring.
Northern areas will have multi-layered cloudiness this morning, but
the HRRR model shows the cloudiness breaking up in the afternoon.
Therefore, high temps should reach the mid-upper 70s like MOS
indicates.

Tonight...Skies should become mostly clear for a time, but with moist
low level cyclonic flow lingering, stratus is expected to develop and
may become widespread. Boundary layer flow looks strong enough to
mitigate fog with low visibility.

Friday-Sunday...Mid-level cyclone northeast of the Bahamas continues
to lift northward away from Florida, allowing short-wave ridge to
build aloft Friday. Ridge flattens over the weekend as a trough far
to the north moves from the Great Lakes to New England, while
weakening. Dry conditions prevail through the period, with max temps
rebounding to the lower/mid 80s Fri/Sat and mins Sat morning in the
upper 50s/lower 60s. Patchy fog early Saturday, with possibility of
more widespread coverage with low visibility, especially across the
interior north. Tail end of frontal boundary crosses CWA late
Saturday or Saturday evening, bringing a brief NW wind shift, lower
dewpoints and about a 10 degree fall of Max temps for Sunday
(generally lower/mid 70s, except upper 60s/near 70 along the coast
from the Cape North where onshore winds will move across the cooler
shelf waters).

Monday-Wednesday...Anticyclone builds over NW Caribbean from the
Yucatan to the Bahamas, resulting in a SW flow aloft from the Baja
of Mexico, across the Gulf to Florida. An upper trough passing far
to the north toward or beyond mid week may allow a frontal zone to
eventually drop into northern Florida. Until then, a continuation of
dry wx expected with a warming trends. Max temps near 80 Monday,
lower/mid 80s Tuesday and mid 80s Wednesday. Mins rise from the 50s
inland (60s Space/Treasure Coasts) Monday to the mid to upper 60s by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Low stratus will occur at many TAF sites early this
morning
with IFR expected intermittently and becoming prevailing MVFR. Areas
south of KISM-KMCO-KTIX should have more breaks in mid level clouds
and there is a chance for low visibility, mainly IFR, to occur too.
The stratus should be slow to lift this morning. There will be low
stratus developing again late tonight with conditions MVFR-IFR
expected in the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Surface low pressure is expected to transition slowly
away from the Cape Canaveral area, but a tight pressure gradient
should be maintained over the northern waters today. The models show
boundary layer winds near 35 knots in the far north, so have gone
with a Gale warning there through evening. The middle zones should
have lighter winds this morning but breezy northeast winds may build
down this afternoon/tonight while northeast swells increase, so will
maintain the current small craft advisory there through tonight. The
southern waters will have a westerly wind component with speeds
around 10 knots today, then become more northerly tonight at 10-15
knots. Northeast swells will also build late, but will not extend
the small craft advisory to the southern waters yet.

Friday-Sunday...Onshore winds Friday become light offshore Friday
night/Saturday, before shifting to NW/N Saturday night as a front
crosses the waters.
A Northerly wind surge near 20 knots expected to build south down the
waters late Saturday evening, diminishing and veering northeast by
Sunday afternoon. Seas 5-7 ft nearshore Friday and 7-9 ft offshore,
subsiding slightly and briefly Saturday to 4-5 ft nearshore and 5-7
ft offshore, then building back to 5-7 ft nearshore and up to 8 ft
offshore, especially northern waters by early Sunday.

Monday...East wind veering to SE/S 10-15 kt as surface high to the
north continues to work offshore. Seas will be slow to subside,
reaching 4-5 ft nearshore and 5-6 ft offshore by late in the day or
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  65  79  59 /  60  20  10   0
MCO  77  64  83  60 /  40  10   0   0
MLB  76  66  81  61 /  30  10  10   0
VRB  77  63  81  61 /  20  10  10   0
LEE  78  62  82  62 /  40  10   0   0
SFB  76  64  82  59 /  50  10   0   0
ORL  77  64  82  62 /  40  10   0   0
FPR  78  62  81  59 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Lascody
LONG TERM....Spratt


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