Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011755
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEST TO EAST FLOW ABOVE 3000 TO 4000 FEET PUSHING
INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS...STRATUS AND RAIN TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA AND CAPE CANAVERAL SHOWING AN
INVERSION AROUND 16000 FEET AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. EXPECT LOW TOPPED STORMS IF ANY DO DEVELOP AND WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -4 TO -5 CELSIUS RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.08 TO 2 INCHES EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. THE LATEST RUC RUN AND THE 12Z GFS RUN WERE
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS FLATTENING AND BECOMING
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ONLY MOVE A LITTLE NORTH
OR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TOWARD SUNRISE. LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

THU-FRI...GFS SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THU AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI. GFS
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION PROG IS SHOWING THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
DECREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEST MOISTURE REMAINS 5000
FEET AND BELOW WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MAV MOS POP LOOK TOO LOW. THE
MET MOS POP A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC.

PREVIOUS ZONES EXTENDED DISCUSSION
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FIRST COOL FRONT OF THE
SEASON WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRING A NOTICEABLE AIR
MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD SAT AFTN. THE FAST MOVING
STORMS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION BUT COULD
CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES...60S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE REFRESHING WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH NORTH WINDS 10 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST.

MON-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
NW BAHAMAS. DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS EITHER DAY BUT SOME
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN NORTHWARD BY TUE AND BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02/03Z THEN VFR TIL 08Z. MVFR TEMPO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTER IR 08Z-13Z...VFR TO 18Z.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
WILL MONITOR TAF SITES...ESP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
FOR EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS...WHICH WILL BURN OFF
THRU MID/LATE MORNING...SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. LIGHT EARLY MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR
KSFB/KMCO...SO SCT-NMRS AFTN SHRA WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA AGAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF KMCO TODAY
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PCPN CHANCES WILL RESIDE.
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS STILL MAIN AVIATION THREATS.
BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. CELL DIRECTION
WILL BE MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN WIND DOWN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT....BUOYS RECORDING WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND 1 TO 3
FOOT SEAS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO AROUND THE DAYTONA AREA THEN DROPS
DOWN TO AROUND MELBOURNE THEN EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COOL
FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT ONE IS LOCATED WINDS
EITHER BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OR THE WEST IF
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS A GOOD CALL FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST TO EAST STEERING FLOW WILL
PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ONTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THU-FRI...MUCH DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY DOES CLEAR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST DOES TAKE PLACE. SEAS REMAIN 3 FEET OR BELOW AND WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY RESTS.

WEEKEND...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING EAST AND OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTN...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS SAT AFTN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND OVERSPREAD ALL THE WATERS SAT NIGHT
AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK UNFAVORABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM
WHERE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ON MON CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE LAST EVENING. LATEST GAUGE
INFORMATION SUGGESTS THE CREEK HAS LEVELED OFF ABOVE ACTION STAGE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
BASIN COULD RESULT IN FURTHER RISES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY AND
THESE SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.
IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP OVER OR UPSTREAM FROM THESE
AREAS...THERE WILL BE FURTHER AGGRAVATION OVER THE BASIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  88  72  89 /  30  30  20  40
MCO  72  91  72  91 /  20  40  10  40
MLB  73  87  72  89 /  30  30  20  40
VRB  71  89  71  90 /  30  40  20  40
LEE  72  90  72  91 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  72  90  72  91 /  20  30  10  40
ORL  74  90  73  90 /  20  40  10  40
FPR  71  88  70  89 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER







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