Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011409
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
908 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
915 MHZ DATA FROM THE XMR AREA NETWORK SHOWS SLY COMPONENT FLOW HAS
BEEN IN PLACE BLO 3K FT FOR AROUND 7 HRS. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM
XMR AND A REVIEW OF GPS SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATE ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT THIS MORNING. PRIMARY OPEN CELL STRATO CU
OVER THE ATLC WATERS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE THAN WEAK RADAR
RETURNS OVER THE MARINE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. A DRY
FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LTST REGIONAL HRRR SOLN.

THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHING OFF OFFSHORE INTO THE SE ATLANTIC CST
WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH BREEZY CONDS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
SCATTERED MARINE STRATOCU WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND INLAND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF DAY WITH SKIES PARTLY SUNNY AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INTO TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS NORTH OF ORLANDO LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(PREV DISC) VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SCT-BKN MARINE STRATOCU
ONSHORE WITH ANY BRIEF CIGS AOA 4K FT. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS
14Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. MAY NEED TO ADD A
PERIOD OF LLWS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY ACROSS NRN
TERMINALS DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW WINDS UP TO
AROUND 35 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE PERSISTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM REQUIRE
CAUTION STMTS SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

WIND SPEEDS THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
INTO TONIGHT WITH BOATING CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA STARTING OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

JP/TES





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