Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230712
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...High Risk for Life Threatening Rip Currents Today at Area
Beaches...

Current...915 MHZ Cape wind profilers show stout SE winds from just
above the surface thru 3.0 KFT around 15 kts. Considerable
cloudiness in the mid/upper levels was noted from area observations
and satellite imagery. Temperatures well into the 60s and L70s
across ECFL early this morning. SE surface winds generally 5-10 kts,
except a little higher near the immediate Space/Treasure coasts.
Weak high pressure ridging was across the central FL peninsula and a
weak frontal boundary located near the western FL Panhandle. Weak
low pressure was also noted over the southeast GOMEX and moving
towards the Florida Straits and southern peninsula.

Today-Tonight...High pressure will slowly transition south/east away
from the area over the next 24 hrs. Weak mid-level trough over the
southern half of FL early will lift northeastward. The weak surface
low across the FL Straits, with PWAT values approaching two inches
over the southern peninsula, will gradually lift northeast. Fairly
high PoPs with occasional heavy rainfall will be possible Treasure
Coast southward through the day. A stronger mid-level trough over
the Deep South will advance to across the Gulf Coast by 00Z, then
lie from north FL thru WCFL by 12Z Mon morning. A weak surface
boundary across the FL Panhandle early this morning will move slowly
through north FL during the day, then lie near or just north of I-4
by daybreak Mon morning. ESE/SE winds generally around 10 mph across
the interior/Volusia coast with wind speeds approaching 15 mph
immediate Space/Treasure coasts. Wind speeds will become light
westerly later tonight.

A fairly tight moisture gradient will exist across ECFL during the
day, which may also include a tight precipitation gradient as well
across ECFL. Will keep highest PoP chances southward, especially
early in the period with greater chances northward across the
interior later in the day. Will have to monitor as there could be
some locally heavy rainfall across our southern counties. There
should be a sea breeze collision later in the day/evening across the
central peninsula. Much drier air is also forecast to infiltrate
into the area Sun night with decreasing pcpn chances.

Mon-Tue...A closed upr low over the deep south early Mon will
migrate to the SC coast Mon night as ill defined sfc low pres
located just E of the state races quickly NE ahd of the upr
feature. Some morning cloudiness and showers will become shunted E
over the Atlc waters during the morning as dryer air wraps around
the departing area of low pressure through the remainder of the
day. Cooler air will work into the area for Mon night with steady
clearing as temps drop into the U50s to L60s. Mostly sunny skies
Tue with Wly breezes and temps rebounding well into the 80s.
Expect rapid drying as humidity in the Lwr to M30s is forecast
area wide.

Mid-Late Week...A dry and relatively warm forecast continues
through next weekend as high pressure initially anchored over the
Wrn Atlc basin dominates lcl weather. Development of onshore flow
from the Atlc by around next Thu-Fri will help temper low RH
conditions, however moisture wl remain too low for notable chcs
of rainfall through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gradual increase in cloud cover area wide with low pressure
system over the southern peninsula and approaching upper
trough/weak front to the north. MVFR cigs/vsbys in showery pcpn
today, especially southward. Highest pcpn potential south of MCO,
though there will be a sea breeze collision over the interior late
today/evening. Improving conds later this evening/overnight as
drier air accompany`s weak boundary`s approach from the north.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...A weak disturbance will move across the
south-central peninsula during the day ahead of a weak front that
will push into north FL in the afternoon, then near the central
peninsula by daybreak Mon morning. SE winds will veer to westerly
overnight with the approach of the weather system. Wind speeds
generally AOB 15 kts, except will increase to 15 to 20 kts late this
afternoon/evening well offshore. Seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft
offshore, but will build well offshore up to around 6 ft this
evening/overnight. Small craft should exercise caution late
today/tonight well offshore.

Scattered showers with isolated storms are forecast with greatest
chances south of the Cape. Coverage may approach likely south of
Sebastian Inlet. A few stronger cells may be capable of producing
wind gusts up to around 35 kts.

Mon-Tue...Gusty Wly winds in the wake of a departing low pressure
area will create higher sea state over the offshore waters with
seas around 4-5 ft beyond the immediate coast into Non night.
Winds and seas will diminish Tue as system draws away from the
area and high pressure re-establishes over the wrn Atlc basin.

Mid-Late Week...Favorable marine conditions during the period with
seas around 2 to 4 ft and winds remaining around 10 to 15 kts or
less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today...Lighter winds and lower dispersion values
will create environment for settling of smoke near any ongoing or
smoldering brush fires. Lingering smoke could again produce locally
reduced, visibilities on nearby roadways early in the day and again
late tonight.

RH values due to higher moisture, possible rainfall and cloud cover
will keep fire weather conditions outside of critical levels.
Isolated lightning storms are forecast today, especially in the
afternoon/early evening. Any storm will be capable of igniting new
fire starts due to the dryness of vegetation across ECFL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  66  81  60 /  30  30  20   0
MCO  88  67  84  60 /  40  30  20   0
MLB  83  68  85  62 /  40  40  20   0
VRB  84  68  87  58 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  89  67  80  60 /  50  30  20   0
SFB  88  67  83  61 /  50  30  20   0
ORL  87  68  81  62 /  50  30  20   0
FPR  82  67  87  59 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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