Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 250816
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
415 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Frontal boundary over the Big Bend/Ern Panhandle
will push thru central FL today as its parent storm system centered
over the OH river Valley lifts acrs the ern Great Lakes and into New
England. The front will push into south FL by sunset where it will
eventually stall. Lingering precip will continue ahead of the front,
but will end rapidly in its wake as a deep and steady W/NW flow over
the NE GOMex works its way into the FL peninsula and generates a
strong dry air advection pattern. PWat values over the nrn half of
the CWA dropping to 0.75-1.00" by early aftn, and over the srn CWA
by early evng. Post frontal ridging will allow a strong subsidence
inversion to dvlp in the H90-H70...effectively ending this
particular precip event.

Will keep precip in the fcst thru 18Z, with a slgt chc of shras from
Lake-K/Cape Canaveral northward, sct shras/isold tsras over the
Space/Treasure Coasts as well as Lake-O. Precip ending from
Brevard/Osceola county northward aft 18Z, then areawide by 00Z
tonight.

No sig cool air advection behind the front, max near climo avg in
the M/U80s. However, sfc dewpoints are expected to drop into the
U50s/L60s along and north of the I-4 Corridor by late aftn, and into
the M/U60s over the Space/Treasure Coast/Lake-O region by late evng.
With light winds and clear skies, min temps will drop into the
L/M60s, 5-10F blo avg.

Friday...Surface high pressure over the central FL peninsula Fri
morning and a dry airmass left behind in the wake of the last front
will allow for mostly sunny skies and warm and dry conditions.
Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 80s near the east coast
and around 90 across the interior.

Saturday-Sunday...Surface high pressure ridge axis will extend
across central Florida on Sat and slip slightly south on Sunday. The
mid level ridge will build from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday and then
over the state on Sunday. A dry airmass in the low to mid levels and
subsidence from the ridge aloft will allow for a mostly clear and
hot weekend with high temperatures into the mid 90s across the
interior and lower 90s along the coast. Lows will range from the mid
to upper 60s across cooler interior locations to the lower 70s near
the east coast.

Monday...The mid level ridge will shift gradually east of the state
with the surface ridge axis across the southern forecast area.
Though the GFS indicates some slight moistening in the low levels
models precip forecasts remain dry including the ECMWF. Will
continue the dry forecast for another day with highs in the mid 90s
inland and lower 90s near the east coast.

Tue-Thu...The mid level ridge will stretch from S FL NE across the
Atlantic with slightly stronger southeast low level flow around the
Atlantic ridge. Models indicate gradually deepening moisture into
the mid levels which should start to support diurnally driven
convection each afternoon and early evening along the east and west
coast sea breezes as they move inland each day toward the interior.
Rain chances in the 20-30 percent range Tue should increase
gradually to 30-40 percent for Wed/Thu. High temperatures are
expected in the upper 80s/around 90 coast and mid 90s for the
interior Tuesday and then lowering a few degrees into mid week with
expected scattered afternoon convection and higher diurnal cloud
cover keeping highs in the upper 80s coast to lower 90s inland.
Lows generally in the lower to mid 70s for mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sfc Winds: Thru 25/12Z...S/SW 8-12KTS...coastal sites ocnl G20KTS.
Btwn 25/12Z-25/15Z...bcmg W/SW 12-16KTS with fqnt G18-22KTS. Btwn
25/22Z-26/01Z...bcmg W/NW 6-10KTS. Btwn 26/03Z-26/06Z...bcmg W/SW 3-
6KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 25/12Z...N of KVRB-KOBE isold MVFR shras...slgt
chc of brief IFR VSBYS in shras. Btwn 25/12Z-25/18Z...N of KISM-KMLB
slgt chc MVFR shras...S of KISM-KVRB sct MVFR shras/isold IFR tsras.
Btwn 25/18Z-25/24Z...S of KVRB-KSEF chc MVFR shras/slgt chc IFR
tsras.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Hazardous boating conditions will cont for much of
the day as a frontal boundary over the Big Bend/Ern Panhandle pushes
thru central FL. Boundary expected to push south of Lake-O/Jupiter
Inlet arnd sunset with sfc winds diminishing in its wake. Fresh to
strong SW breeze thru midday, bcmg a moderate to fresh W/SW breeze
by mid aftn, then a gentle to moderate W/NW breeze arnd sunset. Seas
3-4FT nearshore and 5-7FT offshore thru early aftn, subsiding to 2-
3FT nearshore and 3-4FT arnd arnd sunset. Some argument could be
made for expiring the current SCA a little sooner, but not planning
any changes as the offshore winds are generating treacherous wind
chop with dominant wave pds AOB 6sec.

Friday...NW winds Fri morning will weaken into the afternoon with an
onshore sea breeze developing near shore. Seas will range from 2-3
ft near shore up to 4 ft offshore.

Sat-Mon...Winds will be influenced by the nearby Atlantic ridge
this weekend with winds generally 10 knots or less except becoming
SE up to 10-15 knots with the east coast sea breeze each afternoon
into the early evening. Seas 2 ft near shore and up to 2-3 ft
offshore. Dry weather should allow for good boating conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday...Min RHs are forecast to drop to 25-30 percent across the
interior Fri afternoon with generally light winds inland into mid
afternoon before the east coast sea breeze moves inland in the late
afternoon and early evening. Headlines are not expected at this time
with recent rainfall lowering ERC values some.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Melbourne broke its record high yesterday at 96 degrees. The old
record was 95 degrees (2000). Vero Beach also broke its record high
yesterday at 95 degrees. The old record was 94 degrees (2005).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  63  87  62 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  85  63  90  66 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  87  63  87  68 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  86  64  87  66 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  83  62  90  67 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  86  62  91  67 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  85  63  91  67 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  87  64  87  64 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Bragaw
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....Volkmer


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