Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 041921
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED AND WAS
PUSHING INLAND WELL PAST INTERSTATE 95 AND SHOULD REACH WELL WEST
OF INTERSTATE 4/LAKE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND IT TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT THE COAST AND 20 TO 40 POP WELL INLAND. THE CURRENT 20
POP COASTAL AND 30 POP INTERIOR FOR THIS EVENING LOOKS GOOD. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE CLOUD COVER LOWS IN THE MID
70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY... DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS PULLING MOIST AIR
MASS NORTHWARD WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH
300MB. GFS TIME CROSS SECTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWING WEAK
VALUES FOR BOTH THE OMEGA AND VORTICITY FIELD. CURRENT 20 POP
COASTAL WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE PUSHED WEST OF AND A 30 POP
FOR THE INTERIOR LOOKS GOOD DUE TO EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INTERIOR
SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZES REACH INLAND AND THE
UPPER 80S AT THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSHED WEST OF THE
AREA LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR LINGER WELL PAST
SUNSET AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE SLOW TO WIND DOWN IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN SLOW LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES LITTLE AS IT REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. OUTSIDE OF DAILY LOW LEVEL WIND
PATTERN/SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND MOVING INLAND WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
...LIFTING OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CTRL PENINSULA WITH LGT SWRLY
STEERING FLOW SUN BECOME A VERY LIGHT/CHAOTIC SRLY DRIFT MON-TUE.
POPS REMAIN 50 COAST/60 NORTH/INLAND DROPPING BY 10 PCT ON TUE.
TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO...MAXES 89-90F ALONG THE COAST AND L90S
INLAND...MINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

WED-FRI...THE TUTT LOW WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE XTD PORTION OF
FRI`S DISCUSSION WILL START OFF LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS. THIS IN TURN IS PROGGED TO SHUNT THE TUTT LOW TOWARD
THE WSW AND INTO THE FL STRAITS WHILST DEFORMING IT. WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT A WARMING/DRYING TREND WITH POPS LOWERING COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.

BY SAT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND
TOWARD THE WRN ATLC. THIS ERODES THE MEAN RIDGE OVER FL...LEADING TO
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN CONUS. INCREASING SWRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE
SAGGING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPELL AN
INCREASING TREND IN POPS...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT THIS FAR OUT (DAY 7-8)
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 05/04Z AREAS OF MVFR KMCO WEST VCTS THEN VFR.

OVERNIGHT-MONDAY MORNING...VFR TIL 05/16Z THEN MVFR COASTAL AS SEA
BREEZES FORM AND PUSH INLAND. COASTAL SITES KCOF SOUTH OVC VFR
05/18Z-05/04Z. AWAY FROM THE COAST...VFR TIL 05/20Z THEN AREAS MVFR
VCTS 05/20Z-06/02Z...BKN-OVC VFR 06/02Z-06/06Z THEN SCT VFR.

&&

.MARINE... TONIGHT-WED NIGHT...SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL REST IN A
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTH/SOUTHERN
WATERS RESPECTIVELY. SEA BREEZES START BY LATE MORNING/NOON SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL AND BY MID AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE CAPE.

THU...SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND EAST SOUTHEAST NORTH
OF THE CAPE. DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN SEA BREEZES FORMING
AND COMING ASHORE BY NOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  74  90 /  20  60  20  60
MCO  75  94  75  93 /  30  60  20  60
MLB  75  89  76  89 /  20  50  20  60
VRB  75  90  74  91 /  20  50  20  50
LEE  77  94  76  93 /  30  60  20  60
SFB  75  94  75  93 /  30  60  20  60
ORL  76  93  76  92 /  30  60  20  60
FPR  74  90  73  91 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER


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