Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 271942
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
342 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Increasing Rip Current Threat Expected Over The Holiday
Weekend...

High pressure ridging extends from offshore the Carolinas into
the northern Gulf of Mexico was providing a steady onshore flow
across the forecast area. Meanwhile, low pressure was located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas. This system is expected to remain
well east of the area, however, its anticipated track would
generate a long period swell over the local Atlantic waters that
will raise the rip current threat along area beaches for a
portion, if not all, of the Memorial Day weekend. Water vapor
satellite images show mid and upper level air wrapping around the
mid level low that is part of the low pressure of interest north
of the Bahama Islands.

Tonight...High pressure remains in control of Central Florida`s weather
from a wind direction point of view as east to northeast winds are
expected to continue overnight. Coverage of rain confined to the coast
and inland to Okeechobee county as the wind is slightly stronger and
moisture higher coastal and southern areas the first part of the night.

Sat...Low pressure forecast to be well east of Northeast Florida. Low
level onshore flow most of the moisture in the first 5000 feet of the
atmosphere. Mid level trough axis extends across the southeast and
Florida. Vorticity max rotating around the base of the trough and
cooler mid level temperatures that help maintain chance POP and
isolated storm prospects. Highs upper 80s at the coast and low 90s well
inland.

Sat night...Onshore flow continues. Rain chances drop to 20 north and
30 south. The onshore flow also keeps overnight lows in the lows at the
coast and around 70s except the usually cooler areas in Okeechobee
county.

Sun-Sun night...Light wind regime as the southwest flow ahead of a
weak surface trough/front pushing across the Southeast U.S.
interacts with weak ridging across the south and central sections.
Depth of moisture decreases to less than 5000 feet/850mb but time
height cross sections show enough moisture in the mid levels to keep
rain chances at 20-30 percent during the day.  and skies partly to
mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid and upper 80s...lows around 70.

Memorial Day...Wind starts out from the southwest as another weak
surface trough/front pushes across the southeast. High pressure
ridge axis building over Central/South Florida results in a light
wind pattern that should allow sea breezes to form during the
afternoon. Rain chances 40 percent north and 50 percent south half.
Highs in the low 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Overnight
lows around 70...upper 60s the usually cooler areas of Okeechobee
County.

Previous extended discussion...

Tue-Fri... Departing low pressure to the north of the area looks to
take its time slowly moving away from the SE region. A loosely
organized pressure pattern will remain in place over the peninsula
to Gulf with a setup favoring development of breeze boundaries each
afternoon. Presence of near seasonal precipitable water values will
lead to diurnal slow moving storms similar to what one would expect
with the wet season fully underway. mentionable rain chcs are
anticipated areawide daily through the end of next work week.



&&

.AVIATION...

Brief MVFR visibility and ceilings at the coast Cape Canaveral south
through the evening. BKN-OVC VFR after midnight and Sat morning.



&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...Ridge of high pressure to the north. East to northeast
winds 10 to 15 knots and seas 3 to 4 feet.

Sat...Winds out of the northeast quadrant...north to east...as low
north of the Bahama Islands tracks north while high pressure builds
west over the waters.

Sun...Light northeast wind regime as ridge of high pressure builds
over the coastal waters.

Next Week...
Favorable conds for navigation are expected through midweek due
to generally light gradient winds no more than 10 to 12 kt and
diminishing seas and swell 2 to 4 ft.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  86  69  88 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  70  91  70  90 /  10  30  20  30
MLB  74  87  71  85 /  20  30  20  20
VRB  71  86  70  85 /  30  30  20  20
LEE  70  92  70  90 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  70  91  70  90 /  10  20  20  30
ORL  71  90  70  90 /  10  30  20  30
FPR  71  86  69  85 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DSS/IMPACT WX....Spratt
FORECAST/AV WX...Wimmer



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