Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 221016
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
615 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SENT SOME UPDATES TO ZFP AND GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ADD
PATCHY FOG MENTION. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM
MELBOURNE TO THE TREASURE COAST IN INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT STILL HAS FAIRLY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND SOME MORNING SUN
SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM AS LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMES NW/N INTO MID MORNING.

TODAY...CLOSED MID LAYER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLC TODAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SFC LOW
OFFSHORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND TOWARD THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME WANING LIFT
FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LVL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN SPARK
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIRRUS BAND STARTS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT 20-30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NRN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR AWHILE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH 65-70 ACROSS S CSTL SECTIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY PULLS AWAY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RATHER
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ARKLATECH
REGION. A FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD SO HAVE PULLED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS STYMIED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S COCOA BEACH SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THERE.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FINE LINE OF DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES TO GO ALONG WITH TIMING. WILL CONTINUE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MELBOURNE...BUT JUST SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.

SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING FROM
KSFB-KMCO. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO DVLP ACROSS NRN INTERIOR
AREAS THRU 11Z. SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/BR TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON
AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF KMLB THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KSUA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFPR/KSUA THIS AFTN FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO FCST WITH LATER
UPDTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS MORNING AND SRN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR LATE
AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS.

THU-THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4
FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL MAINLY NE WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SOUTH FROM
THE CAPE DURING THE DAY THRU FRI EVENING. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY HERE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT SOUTH OF FT.
PIERCE DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS 5-6 FT FRI NIGHT GULF STREAM/WELL
OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD.

SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  61  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  82  64  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  81  68 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  83  58  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  68  80  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK






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