National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMLB 250638
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today-Tonight...A broad area of high pressure across the western
Atlantic will remain in place, with the associated ridge axis
settling across central Florida. Dry conditions are forecast to
persist, with mostly sunny skies remaining in place. With the ridge
axis draped across the peninsula, winds are forecast to remain light
and variable this morning, becoming easterly this afternoon as the
east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland as a result of the
temperature gradient between the peninsula and the local Atlantic
waters. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer than the last couple
of days, roughly in the low 80s along the immediate coast and
reaching the mid to upper 80s across the interior. Winds will begin
to diminish late, becoming generally southeasterly and even variable
at times overnight. Dry conditions will continue into the overnight
hours. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Fri-Sun...Mid-upper level ridging will hold tight across the
southeast U.S. and FL peninsula thru the weekend. Mid-level impulses
will occasionally slide down the peninsula during this time, though
we retain mostly dry conditions with a stable onshore surface flow
and less than modest moisture. However, will not rule out a few
showers across the local coastal waters. Surface high pressure
will dominate across much of the eastern CONUS. This will allow
for a persistent onshore flow and the pgrad will be tight enough
for breezy conditions each afternoon, especially along the coast.
Afternoon highs in the U70s to L80s near the coast and L-M80s into
the interior, possibly some U80s Fri afternoon toward the
Kissimmee River. Overnight lows mild and well into the 60s each
early morning.

Mon-Thu...The upper ridging begins to break down and shift off of
the Atlc Seaboard into the western Atlc. Initial surface high
pressure off of the Carolinas will also weaken thru mid-week, while
gradually shifting southward. The onshore surface flow stays mostly
intact, though the pgrad will slowly weaken during this time.
Continue to keep conditions over land dry. A warming trend will
begin, with L80s at the immediate coast, perhaps some M80s here by
Thu, and M-U80s into the interior - perhaps some readings near 90F
well into the interior by Wed/Thu. Overnight lows remain consistent
and in the 60s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable
to calm winds will become easterly as the sea breeze moves inland,
with wind speeds up to 12 knots possible. Winds become light and
variable once more late tonight. Dry conditions forecast through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions will persist
across the local Atlantic waters. An area of high pressure will
continue to keep conditions dry, with light and variable winds this
morning becoming east-southeast across the waters at 5 to 10 knots.
Seas will remain between 2 to 4 feet today into tonight.

Fri-Mon...Less than favorable boating conditions going forward. ERLY
winds on Fri gradually increase to 10-16 kts during the day, 15-20
kts Fri night with Cautionary Statements necessary, and the pressure
gradient continues to tighten Sat-Sat night 16-22 kts (marginal
Small Craft Advisory criteria), then slowly backing off Sun 14-19
kts and Mon, again, 10-16 kts. Initial seas 2 ft near shore and 3
ft Gulf Stream will gradually build in response to the increasing
winds, 4-6 ft by daybreak Sat morning, 5-6 ft during the day on
Sat, 5-7 ft Sat overnight - gradually/slowly subsiding Sun
afternoon-Mon. While conditions will remain mostly dry, cannot
rule out some ISOLD shower activity thru this period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions will still exist across
east central Florida as minimum RH values drop into the 30 to 45
percent range. Winds will be light and variable this morning,
becoming easterly around 10 mph as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland.

Fri...Min RHs recover a bit into the U30s to M40s inland and 50-
55pct near the coast. Easterly winds increase to 10-15 mph, with
perhaps a bit gusty along the coast.

Sat-Mon...Onshore winds increase a bit more into the extended
15 mph/15-20 mph. Min RHs stay above critical levels on Sat, but
as temperatures climb Sun-Mon, we will see values fall back to
35-40pct over the interior on Sun/Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  62  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  86  62  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  81  66  81  68 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  63  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  86  64  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  86  63  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  86  64  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  62  81  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tollefsen
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen