Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 271915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT THEY STILL
MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS
ONSHORE ALONG THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.

THU-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AS IT MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD.
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE REGION...PROVIDING A RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL...SO STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS LOOK LESS LIKELY.
POPS REMAIN LOW THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT...
EXCEPT 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. RAIN CHANCES WILL
THEN RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST UP TO 40 PERCENT
INLAND ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS UP TO MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR.

SAT-TUE...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MERGES WITH STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESIDE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL A STEADY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OFF
TO -7 TO -8C AT 500 MB WHILE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCH
UPWARD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY...DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG
THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CONDS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW AGAIN TOMORROW WITH BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
TREASURE COAST.


&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/THU...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN...BECOMING
RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE E/SE LATE TONIGHT. LINGERING
LARGE SWELLS WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT...SO
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. HOWEVER IF WINDS DROP
OFF ENOUGH BY THIS EVENING MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THIS ADVISORY BY THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET OFFSHORE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

FRI-SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS SWELLS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH SEAS DROPPING
TO 3-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  75  92 /  10  20  10  30
MCO  74  94  76  95 /  10  20  10  40
MLB  76  90  78  91 /  20  20  20  30
VRB  74  91  77  92 /  20  20  20  30
LEE  74  95  77  95 /  10  20  10  40
SFB  75  94  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  75  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  40
FPR  74  90  76  91 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...WEITLICH
RADAR/IMPACT WX....JOHNSON






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