Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 170843
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.

FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.

COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.

FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.

AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO  THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVER WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...KEEPING
WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WILL EASE GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH...VEERING WINDS
MORE EAST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING OFF THE TREASURE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DROP TO 15-20KTS OVER ALL
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR WINDS/SEAS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE/6-9FT OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE
ADVISORY FOR SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...BUT SEAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO
INITIAL NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY.

FRI-MON...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER. COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MARINE
THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE THE FL EAST
COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 7-10FT OR A
LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NNE
BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS SEAS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  68  78  64 /  20  50  80  60
MCO  79  67  82  66 /  20  50  80  60
MLB  79  71  81  69 /  50  40  70  60
VRB  79  72  81  70 /  50  40  70  60
LEE  78  66  79  61 /  20  50  80  60
SFB  78  67  82  64 /  20  50  80  60
ORL  79  68  82  65 /  20  50  80  60
FPR  80  70  82  72 /  60  40  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI





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