Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH MODEL PWATS UP TO 2.2-2.3
INCHES WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA...N OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
(REMAINS OF ERIKA) NEAR S FL. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH AND ENHANCED
DIVERGENCE FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF....WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINING IN
EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE BREVARD/TREASURE
COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS OR LOCATIONS WHERE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
S/SE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFT.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER ALONG THE COAST SCT-NMRS N-NW
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

MON-TUE...WET PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MON AS REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WHAT WAS ERIKA TRANSITIONS TO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO WHILE SEARCHING FOR DIRECTION AND PURPOSE. THERE DOES REMAIN
SOME VERY MODEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION...BUT MUCH WOULD
DEPEND UPON THE UPPER WINDS AND FORTUNE. EVEN SO...ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS (EVEN FOR AUG/SEP) ARE THE LOCAL CONCERN AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN CONTINUES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME PULLED N. CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS SKEWED TOWARD THE W
PENINSULA CLOSER TO FEATURE...BUT SIMPLY CANNOT DOWNPLAY THREAT IN
THE PRESENCE OF 2.3 INCHES OF PWAT.

TUE SHOULD FIND ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS PUSHED A LITTLE FARTHER W AND
N WITH CONCENTRATED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. GFS WANTS TO WASH OUT
THE FEATURE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A TRACER ON IT UNTIL A LITTLE
LATER IN THE WEEK. LOCALLY...A MORE RELAXED SE FLOW GENERALLY
CONTINUES BUT NOW COURTESY OF S PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

POPS ABOVE NORMAL MON AND DIALING BACK SOMEWHAT FOR TUE. MAX TEMPS
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...MIN TEMPS MID 70S.

WED-SAT...LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N
FL AND S GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A
GENERAL SE-S LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST
COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS AS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH
FL...INCREASES WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WIND SPEEDS UP TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE
WATERS...ADDING TO THE UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY WHERE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE HAZARDOUS...BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION IF
VENTURING FARTHER NORTH AND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

MON...THE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS SE
WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT NEAR
SHORE BUT 4 TO 6 FT LINGER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL
SUPPORT SE-S WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT
3 TO 4 FT ON TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY
PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT
CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN
TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  76  88  75 /  90  60  70  40
MCO  87  75  90  74 /  90  60  70  50
MLB  87  77  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
VRB  87  76  88  74 /  90  70  70  50
LEE  88  76  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
SFB  87  75  89  75 /  90  60  70  50
ORL  87  75  88  76 /  90  60  70  50
FPR  86  75  89  74 /  90  70  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS
HYDRO...MB



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