Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 010150 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO
PUSH ONSHORE THE FL WEST COAST THIS EVENING IN STRONG W/SW FLOW
BRINGING SHOWERS INTO EC FL. THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE LIKELY BEEN
WORKING OVER INSTABILITY THAT REDEVELOPED AFTER THE EARLY FIRST
ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTN.  MEANWHILE DEBRIS RAIN ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTN.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO
VERY MOIST AND STOUT W/SW FLOW...AND SLIGHT CHANCE (20 POP) NEAR THE
COAST. THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS HAS DIMINISHED AND EVEN THE
LIGHTNING THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FL WEST COAST AND OVER
THE ATLC.


THIS WEEKEND (PREVIOUS)...LOW LEVEL PRES/WIND/MOISTURE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN STAGNANT...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL SSW TO SW FLOW AND A RIBBON OF
VERY HIGH PWATS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN CWA. SOME VERY
SLGT H50 HGT RISES OCCUR IN THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS ACROSS FL...AND
THE H25 NE WIND MAX WILL REPOSITION ITSELF A LITTLE FARTHER SE TO
THE NW QUADRANT OF A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW WHICH WILL BE RETROGRADING
WWD TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN WILL KEEP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH (NMRS/LIKELY CAT) RAIN CHCS IN
PLACE WITH DIURNAL SHOWER/STORMS PUSHING EWD/OFFSHORE AT A FAIRLY
RAPID CLIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY SHRA MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF COAST MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT IN MOIST W/SW FLOW BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS
TOO MUCH. SO MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU 14Z. THEN SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
THIS WEEKEND...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4FT
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND FROM EARLY AFTN
THROUGH A LITTLE PAST SUNSET. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  72  88 /  40  70  40  60
MCO  75  87  73  91 /  30  70  40  70
MLB  76  87  74  90 /  40  60  40  60
VRB  75  87  73  90 /  40  60  40  50
LEE  77  87  75  89 /  40  70  40  70
SFB  75  88  73  90 /  40  70  40  70
ORL  75  88  74  90 /  30  70  40  70
FPR  74  88  73  91 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.