Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281927
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS CLOSER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS
PRODUCED A S/SW FLOW THAT HAS LED TO SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE. HOWEVER
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND. NOT
BUYING THE MORE ACTIVE HRRR/WRF OUTPUT AND EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
BE LIMITED UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS NEAR THE I-4
CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNSET. MOS POPS INDICATE COVERAGE WILL STILL BE ON
THE LOWER END WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A STORM OR TWO TO FORM WITH
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION...MOVING S/SE INTO THE EVENING. ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING AND TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S.

FRI...BAND OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE MERGER OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFT.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR.

(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
SAT-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BUT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN/FLATTEN.
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE STILL LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST SAT-SUN SINCE
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH THE LATE DAY
SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. THEN STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE EARLY TO MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AND FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC
AND MID LEVEL W/SW FLOW INCREASES. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE
INTO THE SCATTERED RANGE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) BY TUE-WED WHICH WOULD
BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE THE CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING SPARKED FIRES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
WEEKEND THEN HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S INTERIOR NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ISO SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MERGE TOWARD SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA/TSRA FORMATION
EXPECTED ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR FRI AFT. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL AND
PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW...HAVE JUST KEPT VCSH IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/FRI...AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR
SOUTH FRI AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
S/SE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME S/SW OVERNIGHT WITH WIND
SPEEDS DECREASING INTO FRIDAY AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET.

SAT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL WASH OUT BY SAT BUT
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING BEHIND IT WILL INDUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW 10
KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING CLOSER TO THE WATERS...CAUSING A SOUTHEAST GENTLE-MODERATE
BREEZE ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER THE WATERS
MON-TUE AND PRODUCE ABOUT A 10 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
WIND. SEAS AT 2 FEET SAT SHOULD BECOME 3 FEET SUN. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS FORMING INLAND MON-TUE AND
PUSHING BACK ACROSS THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICALLY LOW RH FORECAST AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST IN THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  86  70  87 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  70  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20
MLB  70  86  71  86 /  10  20  20  10
VRB  68  86  70  85 /  10  20  20   0
LEE  70  91  70  91 /  10  20  20  20
SFB  70  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  10
ORL  71  91  72  91 /  20  20  20  20
FPR  67  86  69  86 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY



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