Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 170217
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
917 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Some Fog Expected Overnight...
...Freeze Watch in Effect Wednesday Night for Portions of East
Central Florida...

.UPDATE...
The next strong cold front is waiting in the wings, currently
situated over the western panhandle down into the central Gulf.
Weak ridging over the peninsula will diminish overnight ahead of
the front, allowing winds to collapse. Nearly calm winds are
expected along the I-4 corridor after midnight, which combined
with good radiational cooling should lead to some fog
development there. Given the surprisingly good spatial and
temporal agreement between mesoscale and MOS visibility guidance,
opted to increase the expected coverage of fog north and west of
Interstate 4 (mainly Lake and inland Volusia counties). Patchy fog
wording was maintained across the rest of Volusia as well as
Seminole, Orange, and Osceola counties.

Remainder of the forecast package was left as is. Overnight lows
generally in the mid 40s to around 50, with warmer temps along the
barrier islands south of the Cape.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR outside of fog development late tonight. Guidance continues to
indicate lowest VSBY and longest duration will be along and to
the west of the Interstate 4 aerodromes (KDAB-KSFB-KMCO-KISM-
KLEE) with shallow fog / mist possible elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Wednesday...Will continue to include small craft exercise
caution headlines over the open waters, south of and offshore of
the nearshore Volusia waters. N/NW winds 10-15 knots overnight
will rapidly increase up to 15-20 knots by late Wednesday afternoon
behind passing cold front, with a Small Craft Advisory going back
into effect for the adjacent Atlantic.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  62  31  52 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  48  69  33  55 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  51  71  38  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  50  72  41  60 /  10   0  10   0
LEE  46  63  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  68  32  54 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  48  67  32  55 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  49  73  41  61 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for Coastal Volusia County-Inland Volusia County-Northern
     Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Lake County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Ulrich/Lascody


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