Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250921
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
421 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Broad upper low/trof stretching
from the north central gulf states to the Great Lakes will continue
to lift northeast moving across the Oh/Tn river valleys and mid
Atlantic states through 12z Fri as a weak upper ridge shifts east
over the central plains states reaching the lower MS river valley by
12z Fri. At the sfc a broad surface ridge ahead of the upper ridge
axis stretched across much of the western and central gulf early
this morning shifting east over much of eastern gulf and se states
through 12z Fri. With this pattern a dry/cooler and more stable air
mass will continue to settle over the forecast area through tonight
resulting in near record low temps for most locations in the
forecast area early today followed by temps running 4 to 7 degrees
below seasonal averages today and tonight. As the surface ridge
shifts east today a light western flow near the surface will shift
south to southwest by late afternoon then continue through tonight
leading to the onset of better moisture return near the surface this
evening and overnight.

As mentioned above temps will be cooler than seasonal averages
through tonight with highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s for
inland and coastal locations today followed by lows in the mid to
upper 50s inland for areas generally north of the I-10 corridor and
the lower to middle 60s for all other areas stretching southward to
the immediate coast. 32/ee

.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...An upper level ridge
over the southern Gulf of Mexico builds and shifts north,
bringing increased subsidence and a quick return of temps around
to above seasonal. With a surface ridge becoming established over
the northern Gulf by the end of Friday, a more organized onshore
flow will increase deep layer moisture levels through the weekend,
with rain becoming possible as early as Saturday night. Highs in
the upper 80s to around 90s, with lows ranging from mid 60s north
to mid 70s along the coast.

/16

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...An upper system moves from
over the US/Canadian Plains to over the Great Lakes, where it
meanders around for a day or two before opening. It pushes a
front south, which then stalls over the forecast area Monday into
Monday night, weakening the surface ridge over the northern Gulf.
This will provide the focus for shra/tsra development the rest of
the forecast, with highest chances being Monday, with the boundary
being its strongest, and the organized southerly flow from the
weakening surface ridge being the strongest.

As the upper system moves over the Great Lakes, it shifts the
upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. The result, the loss of
subsidence of the ridge in combination with increase in cloud
cover/rain coverage drops daytime highs, especially over areas of
the forecast area along and northwest of I65, to below to around
seasonal levels. Overnight lows also drop a bit, but remain around
seasonal levels. Highs in the mid to upper 80s, lows in the mid
60s well inland to low 70s along the coast.

/16

&&

.MARINE...Surface high pressure over the western gulf will shift east
across the north central and eastern gulf through early Fri then
remain settled in this position through late Sun afternoon. Surface
ridge will then shift east over much of the western Atlantic in
response to next broad upper trof approaching from the west late Sun
into early next week. With this pattern a moderate westerly flow
early today will shift southwest to south by late this afternoon
then continue through early next week. A weak frontal boundary will
approach from the north by Mon night then stall near the coast early
Tue morning. A surface ridge will then become better established
over the north central and eastern gulf through Fri leading to
mostly a light to moderate onshore flow through the remainder of the
week. Better rain chances return to the marine area Mon into Tue
ahead of the weakening frontal boundary approaching from the north.
Seas will range from 2 to 3 feet through early next week then
subside to 1 to 2 feet through the remainder of the week. 32/ee

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  63  89  70 /   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   83  67  85  73 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      82  69  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   82  56  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  83  57  90  67 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      82  58  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   84  57  91  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

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