Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231700
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR MARINE
ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORE GROWTH IN THE VERTICAL. THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY IS INCREASING. NEW ORLEANS
SOUNDING IS INDICATING A LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION (IF ONE SMOOTHS
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES) BELOW 1000 MB AROUND ZERO
CELSIUS DEGREES...REMAINING SMALL FROM 1000 MB TO 500 MB...AND
STEADILY INCREASING FROM 500 TO 400 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
TO BE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR DATA BUT RAISING POPS BEFORE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO ENCROACH OUR
MARINE ZONES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LI -4 AND CAPE 2000-2500 J/KG. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING RADAR DATA IN THE EVENT WE HAVE TO RAISE POPS.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...SO THE EVOLUTION TODAY WOULD LIKELY BE
CONTROLLED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISTRIBUTION. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOTED BY SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AS EXPECTED. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AND
OPEN INTO AN ELONGATED TROF LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. WITH THIS...THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKENING COVERAGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS. EXPECT BEST CHANCES
TODAY...AROUND 40 PERCENT...OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE STRONGEST ALONG WITH
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND THEN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO... WITH RELATIVELY COLD POCKET
OF AIR ALOFT...COULD ALSO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN TODAY TOO. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
INTERIOR COUNTIES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVING PASSING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE TAIL END GETS DRAWN WEST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS ALSO SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX
BACK EAST A BIT. A SURFACE FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA BY FRIDAY EVE.

FOR THE FORECAST...THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY...WITH POPS AROUND SEASONAL. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL GO WITH. THE
FA DRIES OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRETCHING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. WITH THE LESSENING
PRECIP...TEMPS RISE A BIT FROM THURSDAY...TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BUILDS A RIDGE-LINE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE US/CA BUILDS...FIRST SQUEEZING THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EAST A BIT BEFORE THE DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PUSHES IT BACK WEST. THE FA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT LONGER...WITH TEMPS
ABOVE SEASONAL AND POPS BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROUGH HELP TO PUSH FIRST PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY. HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SECOND ONE VARIES...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE ECMWF USING THE BOUNDARY FOR PRECIP GENERATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING
POPS AROUND SEASONAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE
NEAR SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WHILST THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT. WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIP TO
THE WEST OF THE FA...THE ECMWF DROPS TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL...WHILST
THE DRIER GFS MAINTAINS TEMPS AT OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE BLENDED
THEM FOR THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
(23/12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT OCNL MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT WITH REDUCED SFC VSBY
IN AND NEAR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS

MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  71  90  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  74  89  76  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      88  76  88  76  88 /  20  20  40  10  20
EVERGREEN   91  69  91  70  92 /  30  20  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  90  69  92  69  92 /  40  20  50  20  20
CAMDEN      91  69  91  70  93 /  30  20  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.