Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 242331
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
631 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will generally prevail across the
region through the next 24 hours. The exception could be a brief
period of patchy MVFR to IFR fog from around KMOB and westward into
southeast MS early Wednesday morning between 25.09-13Z. Winds become
light to near calm this evening through early Wednesday morning
before becoming southeast to south 5-10 knots, and possibly a little
higher near the coast with the seabreeze late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Surface high pressure over the
western Atlantic just off the South Carolina/Georgia coasts will
continue to move eastward over the next 24 hours. This will maintain
a light south to southeast wind flow over the region. This wind flow
may bring just enough low level moisture northward across Stone and
George counties in Southeast Mississippi and the southern halves of
Mobile and Baldwin counties in Alabama, resulting in patchy fog
development late tonight into Wednesday morning. No rain is expected
through the period.

Low temperatures tonight will range from 60 to 65 degrees inland
areas...and from 65 to 70 degrees along the immediate coastal
sections. High temperatures Wednesday will range from 85 to 90
degrees inland areas...with lower 80s along the immediate
coastal sections. /22

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...Upper ridge
will continue over the central gulf states through midday Thu then
shift east to the eastern seaboard and western atlantic through Fri
night mostly in response to an upper trof lifting ne from the central
plains states to the Great Lakes region. To the south a deepening
upper low generally over the Bahamas will continue to drift northward
through Fri night. At the sfc high pressure will persist over the
mid Atlantic region stretching south over the se and central gulf
states through Fri night...with a developing surface low further
south near the eastern Bahamas drifting slowly north. This pattern
will lead to more dry weather for the forecast area through Fri
afternoon followed by increasing clouds late Fri into Sat. For the
overnight hours with good subsidence in place throughout the week we
could see some patchy fog mostly over inland areas near sunrise each
day through Fri. Daytime highs will climb to the upper 80s to near 90
through Fri with lows Wed night ranging from the lower to middle 60s
inland and the upper 60s to lower 70s near the immediate coast...then
trending slightly warmer each night through early Fri morning.

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Upper trof over the central
plains states continues to lift ne over the Great Lakes region
through Sun with a few mid level short wave impulses tracking mostly
northward east of the main upper trof generally from east Texas to
the upper Mississippi river valley and Great Lakes region through the
period. To the southeast broad upper low continues to drift north of
the Bahamas nearing the Ga and S Carolina coast Mon into Tues. At
the surface high pressure persists over the central gulf coast states
through early next week weakening somewhat to the east as a developing
surface low tracks north along the eastern seaboard. With this
pattern expect better rain chances mostly on Sat mainly in response
to better moisture in the lower levels due to a better onshore flow
later in the week combined with a passing short wave impulse located
well to the west tracking north over the lower and mid Mississippi
river valleys...along with an afternoon sea breeze circulation closer
to the coast. For now rain chances continue to be mostly isolated in
coverage during this time frame on Sat. Afternoon highs will
continue to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s...with lows generally
in the mid to upper 60s inland and the lower 70s near the immediate
coast. 32/ee

MARINE...A light southeast to south wind flow is forecast through
the week with high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic
to the central Gulf Coast. Seas around 2 feet through Wednesday
night become 2 to 3 feet Thursday through early Saturday. Next
chance of showers and storms looks to enter the forecast by
Saturday...mainly over the near shore waters. /22

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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