Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 210901
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...DEEP RIDGING OVER MUCH TX AND OK
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TO LA...AR AND WESTERN MS THROUGH
TONIGHT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUNNY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING.
DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH SOME LOW LYING AREAS
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MOSTLY NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WED
MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE WARMER 00Z MAV GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MET. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL ALL SERVE
TO REINFORCE A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22.12Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 3 TO 5
KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATER TODAY
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP A
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS MOSTLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  54  77  47  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   81  58  77  51  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      78  59  76  54  73 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   80  47  75  41  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  81  49  76  42  75 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      81  48  74  41  74 /  00  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   82  47  76  41  76 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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