Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 300957
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE NATION EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SOUTHEAST STATES. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER A FEW LOCATIONS.

A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION AND RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...WHILE A
COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM TX TO THE
ARKLATEX REGION/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY. WHILE FORCING OVERALL WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER OUR
AREA...WE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MS
AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL TODAY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.75 INCHES. WE WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL BECOME LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT...WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LA...
CENTRAL MS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
AL THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...WHILE LOWS TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S OVER THE INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...PULLING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
FA. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY COMES A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT...THUS POPS ABOVE SEASONAL. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...THUS SURFACE BONDARY...THE BOUNDARY
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...THEN FA WIDE
FOR MONDAY. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
EXPECTED...AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL ALONG AND WEST.

ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL...
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MU-CAPES RISING TO AROUND 2000J/KG...MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
LOOKING AT THE WIND-SHEAR PART OF THE SEVERE EQUATION...WIND-SHEAR
WILL BE LIMITED...GENERALLY LESS THAN 30M^2/S^2. THE RESULT IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELLS FORMING. ALL IN ALL...IF ANY STORMS DO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OF THE PULSE-
TYPE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALSO...WITH
INSTABILITY IN ANY STORMS OVER THE WATER GENERALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WATERSPOUTS ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THEN ORGANIZES INTO
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ORGANIZE THE LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BOTH
SHOW THE LOW. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER NORTHERN
FL...LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IS GENERALLY WEAK
AND VARIABLE. RESULTANT TEXT GUIDANCE IS TEMPS AND POPS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TEXT PRODUCTS ARE WITH A DEGREE OF EACH
OTHER...ALONG WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WITH GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT...HAVEN`T DEVIATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE ECMWF HAS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW
MEANDERING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO OVER THE FL ATLANTIC
COAST. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...DEEPENS THE LOW AND MEANDERS IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...TO OVER THE GA/SC LINE BY FRI
EVENING. THE GFS ALSO IS ADVERTISING THIS LOW DEVELOPING A SURFACE
LOW OFF THE YUCATAN COAST...THEN TAKING IT NORTHEAST BEFORE STALLING
IT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GA/SC STATE LINE. IN BOTH
SCENARIOS...THE FA COMES UNDER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH A DRY PERIOD
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND FOG COULD OCCASIONALLY IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY...EXCEPT NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THE BEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST AL. /21

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN ITS
POSITION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  68  87  68  86 /  20  10  30  30  50
PENSACOLA   85  71  87  70  86 /  20  10  30  30  30
DESTIN      85  74  86  73  84 /  20  10  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   88  66  90  65  87 /  20  10  30  30  50
WAYNESBORO  86  66  86  65  86 /  30  30  60  40  40
CAMDEN      87  66  90  66  87 /  20  20  30  30  50
CRESTVIEW   89  66  91  66  90 /  20  10  30  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16


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