Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 041025 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STRETCHING EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS WEST THROUGH 12Z WED AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF DIGS OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS REASONING WELL WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHICH LEADS TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE A WELL DEFINED SEABREEZE BOUNDARY FORM
NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN ADVANCE WELL INLAND TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS WITH MAINLY THE HIGH RES
HRRR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ALONG THE SEABREEZE GENERALLY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD MOSTLY
EAST OF KMOB. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH LIMITED GROWTH.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS
TODAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE MANY INLAND AREAS CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT BELIEVE DEWPT TEMPS WILL MIX OUT AGAIN
EARLY TODAY LOWERING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY MIDDAY CLIMBING
QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MARINE LAYER ADVANCES WELL INLAND.
AS A RESULT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE CRITICAL
THRESHOLD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ORIENTED WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF TX WEDNESDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE SITUATED ON THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOKING TO RISE TO THE 1.8 TO 2 IN. RANGE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH OVERHEAD...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE/AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...AND THE ADVANCING
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALL SERVE TO ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE MORNING...THEN ADVANCING INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST WITH GRIDDED POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. MLCAPE VALUES COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IN THE 1500-2500
J/KG RANGE...SO A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MS/AL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
THE WARMEST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE READINGS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 90S...WHILE
LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST. FACTOR IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULD RANGE FROM 100-105.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY BEFORE HEADING FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE
EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. WE INCREASED POPS A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL KEEPING THEM WITHIN THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SUPPORTED GOING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES...BUT
WE STILL ANTICIPATE HIGHS WILL AT LEAST REACH THE LOWER 90S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR REGION
BY FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL BE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM TX TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT AND STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RESULT IN MORE
HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE
BUMPED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH OR REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
THROUGH THE DEEP LAYERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DESPITE
THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A DAILY
CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN THE AFTERNOON HEAT AND
INSTABILITY. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
04.12Z ISSUANCE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05.12Z. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DIGS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      93  75  92  74  91 /  20  10  40  30  40
PENSACOLA   93  78  92  77  91 /  20  10  40  30  40
DESTIN      92  79  90  79  90 /  20  20  30  30  40
EVERGREEN   99  72  94  74  92 /  10  10  40  30  50
WAYNESBORO  99  72  95  73  93 /  10  10  40  30  50
CAMDEN      99  72  96  74  93 /  10  10  40  30  50
CRESTVIEW   98  73  93  74  92 /  30  10  40  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21



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