Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 162059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
WITH REGARD TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND AND MOST OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO OCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA (PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF) THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE LINGERING
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT IS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE
EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. FOR NOW GOING
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS COASTAL ZONES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...DEWPOINTS
STILL LOOK TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER FAR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLIGHTLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD...AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHERN THIRD AND
COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...500 MB TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR REGION PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. BEHIND
IT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT
1.2 INCHES AND WEAK POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC SINKING. CHANCES OF RAIN
10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY 3
TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT THEM TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 2 OR 3 DEGREES...MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER WHICH WE EXPECT TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...TO ALLOW OUTGOING INFRARED RADIATION. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE AND WITH DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH. SAID
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEEPEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POSITIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS RELATIVE TO US MEANS CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE LOW EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS BUT IT APPEARS IT
IS NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. THAT IS WHEN A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FRONT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SEVERAL LARGE WATERSPOUTS DEVELOPED OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF TO
THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL LINGER NEAR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND MOVE BACK
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW. A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES
DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (16/18Z AND 17/00Z ISSUANCES)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IFR TO EVEN OCNLY LIFR IN AND NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 01Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
(SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE) AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER 17/18Z
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. 12/DS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  91  70  90  69 /  40  30  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   73  91  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
DESTIN      75  90  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   67  91  64  91  64 /  30  20  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  65  91  65  91  65 /  20  20  05  10  10
CAMDEN      67  91  64  91  64 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   69  92  66  92  63 /  30  30  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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