Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 302124
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT DOES MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR AREA AS A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WEDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND A WEST-
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING...PUSHING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 30/23Z THROUGH 01/06Z (PER LATEST HRRR...WHICH
HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY). THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH ABOUT 01/04Z BUT SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED OVER OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT
BRIEF/TRANSIENT/SHALLOW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WE HAVE SEEN
OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION OF
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST DURING THE
EARLY EVENING...AS MENTIONED EARLIER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LIMITS ANY LINGERING SFC BASED INSTABILITY.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE NEED OF A SHORT
DURATION WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH THIS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...RAINS END FOR THE MOST PART LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HIGHER INSTABILITIES AND LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. HIGHS
SUNDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. 12/DS


.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH SLOWLY
DIGS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ALABAMA. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RAIN COVERAGE
DOES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT ENDING THE RAIN...WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO LEVELS WITH
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
THEN WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND SOUTH OF THE MARINE
AREA BY LATE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SWITCHES TO
OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  83  69  82 / 100  40  20  50
PENSACOLA   71  82  70  80 / 100  30  20  40
DESTIN      73  80  71  79 /  60  20  10  30
EVERGREEN   69  85  67  84 /  80  60  30  50
WAYNESBORO  67  82  66  80 /  80  60  30  60
CAMDEN      68  84  67  81 /  90  60  30  60
CRESTVIEW   68  85  68  84 /  80  30  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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