Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 031906
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION.  AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED
FOR 20 TO 30 POPS WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT VERY EARLY WILL TRANSITION TO NW FLOW...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. LIKELY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR WILL BE
THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE FRIDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY.

HOWEVER...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT ALLOW THE DROPPING OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND...DUE TO A HINT OF MORE WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT PLUS DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ENSEMBLES SHOW RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS HEADED
OUR WAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO I STAYED ON THE VERY LOW END
OF POPS FOR NOW...A BIT BELOW THE SUPERBLEND POPS.

FOR TEMPS...FOLLOWED THE GFS MOS EARLY...A MOS BLEND IN THE MIDDLE...
THEN THE SUPERBLEND OFFERINGS LATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  95  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  92  70  90 /  10  20  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  91  68  89 /  10  20  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  89  65  88 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG



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