Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 190810
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
310 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...
Behind the exiting cold front, a NW flow pattern will be in place
across the area today. Observations across the area this morning
show winds falling below advisory criteria, so the Wind Advisory
will be allowed to expire. Scattered to isolated showers will
continue for northern sections this morning, with the higher
elevations seeing some light snow accumulations. With 850 mb cold
advection and a second 500 mb vort max crossing the area this
afternoon, cloud cover will be slow to clear today, and will have
high temps a little below MOS guidance. With clearing tonight and
the surface high building into Middle TN, lows will fall into the
20s area wide tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)...
Seasonably cool and dry conditions will dominanate the forecast
through the extended. Main storm track will be mainly north and
south of the area with surface ridging from the southern
Appalachians in the Gulf Coast states.

This surface ridging will not allow deep Gulf moisture to return
northward into the area through the extended. Even though a frontal
boundary will move through the region late Tuesday/Tuesday night,
only effect will be shallow boundary layer moisture producing cloudy
sky for Tuesday.

Models do show a Gulf of Mexico system pulling northeast across the
far southeast United States for the latter half of the week, but
synoptic lift and moisture will stay well south and east of the
southern Appalachians.

For next Saturday, another frontal boundary will move across the
region, but again little to no moisture and dynamics, so dry
conditions anticipated with frontal passage. However, have included
a chance of orographic lift producing showers across the mainly the
higher terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             50  29  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  47  27  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       47  27  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              43  25  51  28 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS/DH



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