Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 210742
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
342 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/...SEEING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SE KY AND SW VA.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG NOTED IN A FEW AREAS WHERE SKY COVER IS MORE
ABSENT. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS LINGERING CLOUD COVER FOR AT LEAST SW
VA AND NE TN THROUGH TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CAPES REACHING 40 TO 80
J/KG. KEPT PREVIOUS POP AND WEATHER GRIDS INTACT...BUT ALSO ADDED
SPRINKLES TO MUCH OF THE REST OF NE TN AND SMOKIES.

THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION LENDED MORE
SUPPORT TO THE COOLER MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY...BUT A BLEND FOR MOS
MINS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A COOL...NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AIR MASS AND
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. SOME DENSER
CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INITIALLY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
A QUICK WARM-UP BEFORE ANOTHER DRY UPPER- TROUGH BRINGS DOWN
ANOTHER MINOR SHOT OF COOLER AIR ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPPER-RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  44  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  41  60  38 /  10  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  41  60  38 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  41  55  35 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AMP


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