Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 260702
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
302 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE MIDLEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER TX MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY. THERE IS
A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. SOME MORNING CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S SOUTH TO
AROUND 70 NORTH. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE APPALACHIANS...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED RIDGING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENOUGH FRONTO-
GENETIC FORCING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED- BROKEN SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LIMITED AT BEST...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE WITH BRINGING IN A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY WENT
CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WENT A
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LATE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             79  53  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  74  48  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       75  49  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              72  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/DH



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