Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 220639
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
239 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA
TODAY...TRAILING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH IN THE
EVENING. FALLING TEMPS AT 500 MB UNDER THE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN
SOME INSTABILITY AND CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY...MAINLY NORTH...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S SOUTH WHERE SUN WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT...TO LOWER 70S
NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
NEARLY CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING LOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME. ONLY
FEATURE TO NOTE IS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BEGINNING WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DUE TO A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHICH
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT TO THE AREA.
MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO SLOW DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WIND
DIRECTION SHIFT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             78  51  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  50  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  48  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              73  43  72  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/JW


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