Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 221625
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
925 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK TAIL END
OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. THEN A BREAK ON FRIDAY BEFORE A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREADS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR DISTRICT. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND THE BAYS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS
PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON TUESDAY...LARGELY IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

THE WEAK TAIL END OF A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM ABOUT SAN FRANCISCO BAY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN
A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN FROM AROUND BODEGA BAY NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE SOUTH TO NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL HILLS
OF SONOMA COUNTY WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END THURSDAY EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DISTRICTWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THEN SATURDAY MORNING
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS IT WILL BE BOTH A BIT
STRONGER AND WETTER THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON.

HERE AGAIN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF AND END PRETTY
QUICKLY...WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT STS JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS. PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 8:47 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF POINT SUR THROUGH
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER
AVIATION: AC
MARINE: RGASS/DRP

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