Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 261150
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
450 AM PDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will lead to a warming trend today
through at least Saturday, especially inland with afternoon
readings back into the 80s and lower 90s. A marine layer will
persist near the coast. Latest long range models suggest
seasonably warm weather to continue inland areas Sunday through
Memorial Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 3:48 AM PDT Thursday...Low clouds extend well
inland this morning with cloud bases being reported between 1000
and 2000 feet. Despite the fairly deep intrusion expecting the
clouds to burn back to the coast fairly quickly with a weak
inversion in place and some light offshore boundary layer winds
this morning. Main theme for today will be to mark the beginning
of a warming trend, especially after a fairly prolonged cool spell
for the inland valleys. As skies turn sunny this afternoon expect
afternoon readings back to more seasonable levels with more
widespread 70s and even some lower 80s.

Warming trend, especially inland will continue Friday and Saturday
as 850 mb temps warm and the marine layer gets eroded under a
developing northerly wind that should show up in the hills Friday
night into Saturday morning. Temperatures are forecast to jump
significantly on Friday with inland areas well into the 80s and
lower 90s, not at all unusual for this time of year but much
warmer than the last week or so. The combination of some northerly
winds Saturday morning should lead to continued warming to start
out the holiday weekend. It looks like pool weather will arrive
just in time while typical 60s will persist along area beaches.

There could be a brief cool down Sunday with a return of some
marine air and onshore flow. However the ECMWF and GFS are now
showing another warm solution for Memorial Day with a 584 dm high
west of San Francisco with an associated thermal trough along the
coast. So looking like a warm and dry holiday weekend with nice
travel weather for the bay area and minimal fog.

Long range ECMWF for early next week looks high and dry at least
through Weds with perhaps a trough approaching by the middle of
next week to induce some inland cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 4:53 AM PDT Thursday...Marine stratus deck
confined southward from Pt Reyes this morning as a result of
coastal wind field. A more direct onshore flow south of Pt Reyes
has allowed marine air mass to push inland through the Golden
Gate and San Mateo/Santa Cruz/Monterey coastlines. Weak marine
stratus presence offshore of Marin county is limited potential for
deeper, more robust inland push and will lead to a much earlier
clearing for KSFO KOAK with KSTS and KSJC clear overnight. Robust
upstream marine air mass and favorable onshore flow expected to
keep clouds around the Monterey Bay through much of today. Onshore
winds generally 10-20 kt depending on location with gusts 15-25kt
depending on location and proximity to the coast.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR with clearing expected in the 17Z hour but
possibly lingering into 18Z. Onshore winds 15-20kt in the
afternoon and early evening. MVFR returns late tonight and not
expected to persist for as long as previous nights, ie 7-15Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs possible all day along
immediate coastline (IE at KMRY) with clearing expected further
inland (IE at KSNS) by 20Z. Early return of stratus by 02Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...as of 04:42 AM PDT Thursday...High pressure builds into
the holiday weekend bringing a period of gusty northerly winds to
the coastal waters. The northerly winds will also result in
hazardous conditions from steep fresh swell. Winds will be
strongest in the outer waters north of Point Reyes.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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