Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KMTR 132157
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
157 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WARM WEATHER TO RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS A TROUGH APPROACHES
WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 1:57 PM PST SATURDAY...ITS A NICE SATURDAY
ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. THERE IS ONE STUBBORN PATCH
OF FOG IN MONTEREY BAY THAT CONTINUES TO SLOSH AROUND. MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE FOG HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 60S WITH 70S STARTING
TO SHOW UP IN THE HILLS AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT BEGINS TO WARMING.

THE MAIN GRADIENT IS STILL NORTHERLY AT ABOUT 5 MB DOWN THE COAST
BUT WILL TRANSITION TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME BREEZY WINDS TO CRANK UP IN THE AREA HILLS ABOVE 1500 TO
2000 FEET. NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE RIDGES OF MOST AREA
HILLS BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH WIND TO MIX DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS. COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TOMORROW MORNING AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSIONS MIX
OUT.

OTHERWISE THIS PATTERN WITH A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE WINDS IN PLACE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE
LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 586 DM HIGH NOSES TOWARDS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN PLACE
RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON WEDS AS ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE COAST BY LATE WEDS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND MOST RAIN SHOULD END
BY 12-18Z THURSDAY. RFC AND MODEL QPF NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE
ORDER OF QUARTER INCH ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTH
BAY AND COASTAL HILLS BUT LESS FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN
MONTEREY/SAN BENITO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:55 AM PST SATURDAY... FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A
THICK 500-1000 FT THICK LAYER OF STRATUS OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY REGIONS. SATELLITE TRENDS AND WEBCAMS SHOW
A GRADUAL THINNING OF THE STRATUS DECK AS OF 945AM THIS MORNING
WITH PATCHES OF BLUE EVIDENT. LAYER IS DETERIORATING ALL ON SIDES
AND FROM ABOVE... SO EXPECT TO SEE LAYER LITTLE MORE THAN FEW-SCT
CLOUDS BY 1830-1930Z. LINGERING BR/HZ POSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. COULD SEE THE RETURN OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT... BUT NOT EXPECTING IT AT THE SAME
INTENSITY AS THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO....IFR CIGS THROUGH 1830-1930Z... THEN
IMPROVING. POSBL 6SM FROM BR/HZ THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 21Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG/LOW
STRATUS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE BAY ITSELF AND THE SANTA CLARA
VALLEY... THROUGH THE MORNING. IMPROVING VIS/CIGS NO LATER THAN
20Z. REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS DUE TO BR/FG TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY
FEBRUARY 14 THROUGH TUESDAY FEBRUARY 16. THE RECORD HIGH IS LISTED
FOR EACH DAY ALONG WITH THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS SET (IF THE RECORD
WAS SET ON MORE THAN ONE YEAR...THE MOST RECENT YEAR IS LISTED).

                          SUNDAY         MONDAY         TUESDAY
LOCATION                  FEB 14         FEB 15         FEB 16

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...
  KENTFIELD               84/1930        79/1930        77/1930
  SAN RAFAEL              78/1977        78/1977        77/1977
  NAPA                    81/1930        81/1943        81/1930
  SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN  78/1930        76/1930        75/1930
  SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT   74/1977        75/2015        69/2007
  OAKLAND MUSEUM          80/1977        80/2015        75/2015
  OAKLAND AIRPORT         72/2013        73/1977        73/1977
  RICHMOND                77/1977        75/1977        75/2015
  LIVERMORE               79/1977        80/1933        78/1977
  MOFFETT FIELD           82/1977        79/1977        73/1977
  SAN JOSE                80/1930        80/1930        78/1930
  GILROY                  80/1996        81/1991        81/1977

MONTEREY BAY AREA...
  MONTEREY                81/1943        79/1977        73/2013
  SANTA CRUZ              82/2015        82/1916        85/1930
  SALINAS                 83/2015        81/2013        80/1977
  SALINAS AIRPORT         84/2015        81/2015        77/2013
  KING CITY               85/1977        86/1977        90/1977

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:37 PM PST SATURDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
REGIONALLY. A LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TOMORROW.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALONG THE COAST TIL 8 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: R_WALBRUN
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: DYKEMA


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.